XZero771679666304

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/huffau01.shtml Those numbers bear out that he's decidedly subpar. BP2005 categorizes him as a "high-quality hitter with a low-quality glove". And STATS and most scouts I've seen say he's perfectly adequate. BP is, well - BP. Consider the source. I never said that BP was gospel, but it's not garbage either, and certainly not myth. BP does take a very scientific approach to analysis which eliminates emotional bias. And human observation. human observation that can be extremely swayed by emotional bias Well defensive stats have proven to be very flawed. IMO, there isn't a single reliable one. Certainly bias can cause major misjudgement (i.e. Derek Jeter), but scientific analysis of defensive ability is shoddy at best. Until better methods come along, observation is the way to go as far as evaluating defense goes. For the record, I have watched Huff play quite a bit, and think he is a poor defender.

That's funny because I thought it was overpaying for Zito. I would rather have Williams and Hill on the Cubs then a guy that is going to be a free agent next year. At a risk of sounding like a troll - Williams and Hill trade values are vastly over rated on this board. I've noticed most most forums (like CardsTalk) tend to over value their own players tho. I agree about Hill, he is very overvalued by many around here. Williams I would rather keep. I think Zito would bolt right back to the west coast after 2006, so I wouldn't give up too much for him, but I wouldn't hesitate to deal Hill and other prospects for him.

Since his game is built around speed, I disagree. Your legs are usually the first things to go as you age, and without them Furcal loses his appeal. If I were him, I'd go with the years.

Not nearly enough production? Well, the OBP is definitely there. The speed is there. The power is there. How do they not have nearly enough production? Cruz is a 20 HR guy Bradley is turning into a 25 HR guy Kent is a 30+ HR guy Drew is a 30+ HR guy Furcal will give them another 10 They can look for someone to fill 3b and behind the plate if one of the kids isn't quite ready. That's plenty of production. Cruz is Burnitz at best. Turning into a 25 homer guy is not the same as being a 25 homer guy. Kent is good. Drew is a human injury. You can't count on he or Bradley to play anywhere near a full season, so you really don't know what you are going to get out of them. So you have a question mark at third, a question mark at catcher, above average production for first at first, not much at 2nd, good production at SS, and two question marks in the OF. A closer coming off TJS, a young and unpredictible rotation, no manager as of yet and tension in the clubhouse. Hardly awe inspiring stuff.

If either Eyre or Howry put together back to back season like JoBO did I'd be ecstatic. and JVB had at least a chance to do for around the league minimum. Eyre and Howry both have far better stuff than JVB. So did JoBo. JVB might have had a chance to produce like JoBo, but it was miniscule. How many players dominate (paticularly in AAA) but can't cut it in the bigs? JVB was released by another team for a reason.

Why do you say that? Moving Kent and his defensive liability to 1st would be a good move. Izturis and Furcal make for a decent middle infield. I think the Dodgers are in pretty good shape. They have tons of trade commodity. If I'm the Dodgers, I'd push for Furcal. I'd keep Bradley. I'd trade Izturis to Florida with a pitching prospect for Castillo. Furcal, Bradley, Drew, Kent, Cruz, Joel Guzman 3b, Izturis, Navarro C without trading Izturis Furcal, Castillo, Drew, Kent, Bradley, Cruz, 3b, C That's an exciting offense. With all of their stud pitchers drawing nearer to major league ready, they can save money on pitching and improve the offense. Edwin Jackson, Joel Hanrahan, Greg Miller and Chad Billingsley are all getting close. The Dodgers also have a fine group of infielders in Delwyn Young, Andy LaRoche, Joel Guzman and James Loney that teams would be interested in acquiring in trade. I see the Dodgers lining up for NL West dominance once again. There's not nearly enough production in that lineup, especially considering the cost. I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Dodgers are 3rd or 4th place in the didvision with that team.

Based on what? I looked at their results. His minor league stats are much more impressive than those 3, and Novoa is the only one younger. Stats don't tell the whole story. There are always going to be players who have stellar minor leagues stats who flop in the bigs while players who have lesser minor leagues stats go on to be successful. A sly pitcher with less than great stuff can dominate in the minors, but you have to go with ability when evaluating talent. Welly, Novoa and Wuertz all have better arms and stuff than JVB does.

I think that L.A. will have to go higher if they want Furcal. They have no manager, a lower probability of winning than the Cubs or Braves, a volatile clubhouse, a potential position change dilemma, and a payroll that will be really restricted if Furcal signs. The bums will have to really outbid Chicago and Atlanta, IMO.

I agree for the most part, but we have to get a SS in my opinion. We simply can't have Neifi in the every day lineup, and if he does manage to find his way into it, there has to be more mitigation than Ronnie Cedeno. Furcal, Castillo, Lugo or whatever. I'd go as high as 5/55 or 5/57.5 for Furcal.

Sorry, it was a blog not really an article. Yes, Pierre slumped to .276 last season, but that still was just eight points lower than Furcal’s batting average during what was considered a superlative year for the Braves’ catalyst. And Pierre’s lifetime mark is .305 as the leadoff guy. He steals bases, and he rarely is caught (267 out of 363 attempts). He makes contact more often than not (never more than 52 strikeouts in a season). Since Pierre’s first full year in the majors with the Colorado Rockies in 2001, he hasn’t played less than 152 games in a season. He has spent each of his three seasons with the Marlins playing every game, including every inning during the 2004 season. “In all of the decades I’ve been in the game, I’ve only had two workaholics — Tony Gwynn and Juan Pierre,” said McKeon, still employed by the Marlins. It.'s hard to call Furcal's 2005 "superlative" considering his very poor (.254/.310) first half, in which he was fighting an injury. In the second half, Furcal put up a .322/.394/.474 line. Saying Pierre is rarely caught is just flat out wrong, and Furcal's success rate is considerably higher. And AVG isn't the issue, OBP is. Whoever wrote that was really fluffing Pierre.

Stupidty would be ignoring your BP problem there are other ways to address the pen. free agency isn't the only way to acquire arms, if we don't trust our minor leaguers to contribute. True, but with the premium we are seeing placed on good bullpen help, getting those arms via trade may be more costly than via FA.

Not at all since Hendry set the market value for relievers. I'd probably call Hendry an accomplice. Hendry may have elevated the market, but what the Jays gave Ryan and what the Yanks are reportedly going to give Farns are well beyond the overpaying that Hendry did.

If I were Hendry I would get involved in the Luis Castillo talks immediately. Perhaps he could get Castillo and Pierre.

How exactly is Lugo better? Aside from last year in the OBP department, Furcal has been better in nearly every category throughout their careers. Lugo's 3-year splits: .281 .346 .402 .748 Furcal's splits: .285 .348 .429 .777 Close, but Furcal steals more bases and has a higher success rate. Furcal is also a better defender and it two years younger. Lugo historically strikes out more and walks less. Furcal hits for more power and is faster. Furcal will cost more, but will require no trade cost. You can say Lugo is more cost effective, but to say he is better is just plain wrong.

In order to assure Neifi isn't starting, I'd be willing to overpay a little bit. 5/50 is doable for someone who isn't injury prone, but is consistant like he is. How is Furcal consistent? In 2005, his contract year, his stolen bases went way up and his errors went way down, otherwise he wouldn't be getting near the type of offers he's getting now. Furcal's OBP the past three years: .352, .344, .348. His SLG: .443, .414, .429. His SB%: 93%, 83%, 82%. His BB and K are also nearly identical over the past three years. In fact, his SB and Errors are the only two stats that are at all out of line with his norms. Last year wan't even his best in the past few years, 2003 was. Furcal is pretty darn consistent. Yeah I know that stuff, but it's his 2005 SB and E numbers that have convinced people he's a defensive and base-stealing wizard, and an elite lead-off hitter. Take away those two numbers and he wouldn't be getting these ridiculous offers. Unfortunately, I think the offers he is getting are fair given recent contracts for Renteria, etc. He's really only being offered slightly over market value, even if that value is high. Fair? Those are widely considered crappy deals. You can talk about marktet prices if you want, but there are multiple markets. there's the free agent market and the trade market. the trade market is pretty reasonable compared to the FA market right now. Let's put it this way: If Renteria got 10 million per, there's no way Furcal's agent is going to allow him to sign for less. My point is not that Furcal is the best option, but that the contracts being offered him can hardly be considered surprising.

In order to assure Neifi isn't starting, I'd be willing to overpay a little bit. 5/50 is doable for someone who isn't injury prone, but is consistant like he is. How is Furcal consistent? In 2005, his contract year, his stolen bases went way up and his errors went way down, otherwise he wouldn't be getting near the type of offers he's getting now. Furcal's OBP the past three years: .352, .344, .348. His SLG: .443, .414, .429. His SB%: 93%, 83%, 82%. His BB and K are also nearly identical over the past three years. In fact, his SB and Errors are the only two stats that are at all out of line with his norms. Last year wan't even his best in the past few years, 2003 was. Furcal is pretty darn consistent. Yeah I know that stuff, but it's his 2005 SB and E numbers that have convinced people he's a defensive and base-stealing wizard, and an elite lead-off hitter. Take away those two numbers and he wouldn't be getting these ridiculous offers. Unfortunately, I think the offers he is getting are fair given recent contracts for Renteria, etc. He's really only being offered slightly over market value, even if that value is high.

? are deer strange and unusual in st louis? In suburban areas? Yes. In downtown St. Louis? No. But then again look at how deserted downtown St. Louis is. If terrorists set off a small nuclear device during a non-game evening in downtown St. Louis, the only people they would kill would be the few lonely cleaning crews, some security guards and maybe a dozen hotel guests. Any time I've been to St. Louis when there isn't a Cardinal game, the downtown is a ghost town. I think that's probably true for most small-market baseball cities. Using Chicago as your curve is a little unreasonable. Chicago is on another level. Iowa City and Cedar Rapids, Iowa are more happening at night than St. Louis.

Farns + NYC = Total disaster

In order to assure Neifi isn't starting, I'd be willing to overpay a little bit. 5/50 is doable for someone who isn't injury prone, but is consistant like he is. How is Furcal consistent? In 2005, his contract year, his stolen bases went way up and his errors went way down, otherwise he wouldn't be getting near the type of offers he's getting now. Furcal's OBP the past three years: .352, .344, .348. His SLG: .443, .414, .429. His SB%: 93%, 83%, 82%. His BB and K are also nearly identical over the past three years. In fact, his SB and Errors are the only two stats that are at all out of line with his norms. Last year wan't even his best in the past few years, 2003 was. Furcal is pretty darn consistent.

For one thing, I'm not sure he would want to come back. Plus I sincerely doubt Hendry will be spending any more money on the bullpen. And it would make Hendry look pretty stupid to bring Farns back at three times what he made with the Cubs after cutting him loose like he did. I think the chances of Kyle being a Cub again are about 0%.

I did, actually. Size 8 I think. I am just happy someone has a bigger head than me.

I'm less concerned by the cost of Soriano and Mench than the 100 million for Furcal. I have been a big proponent of his signing, but that's way too much. Unfortunately, it is a scenario I can see happening the more I think about it. 1) Hendry would offer Furcal more money than anyone else will to get him in the fold quickly, IMO. 2) Speculation has had Walker going to Texas in the past, and Hendry has been after Soriano before. 3) Mench would fill an OF hole.

I found the Link to this story , but it smells like BS to me. 100 million over 6 years? Yikes.

Obviously? Obvious to anyone who followed 2005. And it's obvious to anyone who followed '04 that he didn't have a problem with him there. Certainly not "pure fantasy thinking". Baker had ample opportunity and reason to bat Walker in the leadoff spot in 2005 and didn't. Walker did a very good job in the first half of 2004, but if there were ever a time to lead Walker off it was last year, and we saw what happened. There is no reason to expect that Baker would lead Walker off in 2006. Furthermore, all indications have been that Walker won't even be on the team in 2006.