XZero771679666304

The adjustments theory makes for a nice story, but guys are always making adjustments in baseball. Adjustments don't always hold over time, especially when a serious injury happens. It depends on how you look at his pre-2005 numbers. He wasn't all that good in 2004, but he was much more productive, in terms of OPS+ in 2002 and 2003. So, pre-2005 is a pretty wide range. Since becoming a regular, Lee's OPS+ has been: 122 113 131 135 114 177 111 The worst case (barring injury) is probably the 110-115 range, the mid-range is probably 130-140, while the high end is 170-180. Taking park factors into account, Lee's 2004 was his least productive recent season, by far. He had good seasons in a very unforgiving ballpark in 2002 and 2003, a decent season in a fairly neutral park in 2004, and a stellar season in the same park in 2005. His adjustments may not hold, but even if they don't I think a regression to his 2004 numbers is unlikely. I don't think a .900-.925 OPS is the least bit unrealistic.

The odds of that happening are remote. Yeah, no kidding. The Lee issue has really moved to the backburner in discussions, but going into last season, he wasn't a real good bet to repeat 2005. Now, a year older, after a terrible injury for a hitter that ruined an entire season (even though people maintained it was largely harmless and he'd recover quickly), we might be looking at a guy who puts up a sub 900 OPS in 2007. Quality numbers, but not superstar numbers. His OPS+ was 177 in 2005, the next highest number in his career was 135, at age 27. If he's much below his 2005 numbers, the acquisitions will have to be that much better, just to improve upon the weak 2005/2006 offense. If Lee puts up his 2004 line of .278/.356/.504 next season I'd be somewhat suprised. His 2005 was so far out of line, and he's past the age where we can expect him to sustain that kind of production. But his improvement was due to some adjustments, not a fluke. While he won't post 2005 type numbers again, I can't see him regressing to his pre-2005 numbers, at least not in the next year or two. I think a .290/.375/.550 line is quite realistic.

Florida? Do you think his ego would accept the league minimum for a salary. There are better places for an aging slugger to try an resurrect his career than in that cavernous ball park.

Holy Schnikeees! (And no wonder Ramirez opted for FA. He'll get more than Alphonso!) Soriano will get considerably more than Aramis. Not that he should, but he will.

Don, if Ramirez walks, you then have to sign or aquire 2 impact bats to improve. Thjat's going to be next to impossible this winter. As far as being the next Ron Santo in terms of fan support, I'd rather people be indifferent to him and he continue to outproduce every other 3B in team history than be popular. I am in the camp that believes that Ramirez NEEDS to be re-signed, but Hendry could sign Soriano and Carlos Lee and put Soriano at 2B, or sign Soriano and trade for Sheffield. If the Cubs sign Soriano (which I believe they will), there are a number of OF possibilities: Lee, Sheffield, Wells, Burrell, etc. Personally, I would re-sign Ramirez, sign Soriano and try and trade for Vernon Wells or sign Lee. On a semi-related note, I find myself wondering why people are assuming Soriano will be an OF next season. Sure he is a butcher at 2B, but with the lack of impact bats on the market this winter, he's going to play where he wants to.

No. He wasn't that good before his health issues.

ok, let me just say that how patient the reds hitters were is probably completely irrelevant. Did Chambliss make them patient? doubtful. I guess there is some benefit in not teaching patient hitters to be impatient but hendry is the man that needs to go get patient hitters. chambliss isn't going to turn jones into a walk machine. Chambliss may not do that much, but hitters aren't unaffected by their hitting coaches. Do you think it is any coincidence that Baker and his coaches preached aggressiveness at the plate and over aggressiveness was a rampant problem for his entire tenure? If a coach preaches enough, it will have some degree of effect.

Regardless, if you start getting really sensitive to remarks that really don't cross the line, you don't need to be reading the thread. In an open college football thread, I hardly think a little smugness is too much to be tolerated. If it gets to the point where it goes from being respectful to coddling posters whose team just lost, it's gone too far. If what ndistops said worked you into a lather, you really just needed to take a time out. Ehh, I was mad at the heat of the moment but I obviously wasn't the only one who thought he went over the top. Seems to be a matter of opinion here. True, it is opinion. If I had been at all emotionally invested in UCLA beating ND, I probably would have thought he did as well. I think a lot of people were invested in the upset, and that is why there was the response that there was. I find that keeping a small supply of worthless breakables around helps me when my team loses or a hated team wins.

Who unfortunately for most of this board is just as overrated. not really... at least they haven't lost a game yet, and they did beat the crap out of an arkansas team which has proven to be a very good team. On the road, Wazzu never really came close on their final drive, and as they are showing today against Oregon, they're a decent team. Washington only got to the 35 yard line, and Arizona State did nothing after USC took the lead. So yes, they've had some narrow margins of victory, but in none of those games was there a really serious chance for them to lose in the end. Contrast that against Notre Dame. They got crushed by Michigan. That might only be their only loss, but they would've lost against Michigan State if the Spartans hadn't given the game away. And then today, they had to score in the last minute to win. That's 3 games that have been more dangerous for them than anything USC has played. Yeah, ND has looked less than impressive in compiling their record. I don't even think the Michigan team that blew them out is as good as their ranking. Having said that, I wouldn't be surprised if they beat USC. I think it's just a down year throughout college football, with OSU being the only true powerhouse.

Regardless, if you start getting really sensitive to remarks that really don't cross the line, you don't need to be reading the thread. In an open college football thread, I hardly think a little smugness is too much to be tolerated. If it gets to the point where it goes from being respectful to coddling posters whose team just lost, it's gone too far. If what ndistops said worked you into a lather, you really just needed to take a time out.

Maybe you should read a Bears thread before making such an assinine comment. Or should I quote every "celebrate your team winning going over the top" comment I find from last Monday? ETA: I was rooting for UCLA too, but this makes me upset... I honestly don't give the first crap about the game either way, and you are right. ndsitops was doing what a lot of others have done on this board, and he was accosted by a few who were either A)Oversensitive because their team lost in heartbreaking fashion or B)Oversensitive because they wanted to see their hatred of ND validated by the upset. True ndistops was being a bit smug, but not enough on its own to cause the reaction he got. Like you said, I would think some recent Bears threads were completely over the top if I weren't a Bears fan myself. This isn't usually a problem because most here are Cubs/Bears fans. But if your fan affiliation conflicts with others and you get really upset about a game, you need to step away from the computer.

I really don't care either way, but the anti-ND sentiment here is every bit as thick as ndistops' homerism.

He doesn't "track" well. Whatever the hell that is. He relies on his speed. He breaks late to the ball and makes up for his late start with his speed. He often takes bad routs to balls. Because of this when he catches the ball he is rarely in a good position to throw the ball, altough that is not too big of a problem with his arm. He's never been a "great" CFer and rarely exhibits "good" CF skills. I don't know who you've been whatching in CF but it hasn't been Pierre. You don't know what "tracking the ball" is, but you claim to know that Pierre makes bad starts on the ball? Come on. I seriously wonder if some of you guys even watch the games (on tv or in person) or just follow the numbers and rip on players b/c it's popular. There certainly doesn't seem to be much baseball playing experience here, from the ridiculous claims some people make. Who the hell are you to be making such claims? How do you know I'm not an ex-big league ballplayer that got tired of the BS lines from people who try to sound "baseball smart". How do you know I'm not some guy who tapes every Cubs game from both stations carrying the game so I can get different perspectives. Words like tracking, ceiling, instincts, feel, and so are are nonsensical scoutspeak that means absolutely nothing. The fact of the matter is that Peirre hesitates when the ball is hit. Sometimes he breaks back when he should break in. He is worse going to his glove side then his throwing side. When he does break he often loops around and catches balls low and not in a good throwing position. I've watched Slappy and he is the exact opposite of someone like Jim Edmonds. Edmonds is a hot dog, but he knows how to play CF. I agree with you for the most part, but tracking is not "nonsensical scoutspeak". It is how well you track and anticipate the flight of the ball, at least that is what it means to me. Also, any outfielder's first movement on any flyball should be back, at least a step. It is far easier to break back and come in than to break in and go back.

Stone is an arrogant ass, and he really exacerbated the whole fiasco. Having said that, if the players just played the game, stfu and didn't worry about what the TV guys were saying, the whole thing never would have happened.

The yankees are the last team on the planet right now that wants pitching prospecs. if they aren't ML ready blue chippers/ or all-star/former all start starters than it probably wont happen They can just sign Zito, Schmidt, etc. Plus the prospects would probably just be traded again for another SP/3B, and the cleared payroll would help mitigate the expenditure for signed SP's. Hendry can't give them what they need, but he can help give them the means to get it from somewhere else. Jim can't give them a stud 3B, and he can't give them a top of the rotation SP (at least not without crippling the rotation). If he wants ARod, the only thing he can do is offer our best prospects and take some of George's payroll.

If Aram signs, I doubt he will do so without a NTC. I doubt he signs and agrees to be traded to the Yanks when he could just go FA and get more money directly from them. I offer Hill, Guzman, Moore, Pie, Jones, and Eyre for ARod and Pavano, provided the Yanks eat a decent chunk of Carl's contract. While it doesn't give the Yankees a proven starter or 3B, it clears payroll and gives them tradeable young talent. I would swap Prior in, but his trade value is low that is wouldn't make much of a difference compared to what he can be if he bounces back. Plus I don't think the Yanks are in the market for hit or miss starting pitchers after the past few seasons. That offer might seem exorbitant, but in light of the offers the Angels and White Sox can offer (Crede, McPherson, etc.), Hendry will have to really overpay. ARod might invoke his NTC if it comes to the Sox, but you know he would jump at an opportunity to go to the Angels. Piniella could be a factor, but only if the Cubs get the Yankees to consider a deal. If we want ARod, he will come at a steep price.

Apparently, Uribe's time in the South Side has rubbed off on him. Not terribly original, but I couldn't resist.

I have never seen a team play so badly and win. Wow.

Perhaps because he's old, it might be his last chance to manager, the Yankees job is unavailable, SF is too far and the Cubs spend a lot of money on payroll and employ lots of veterans. Lots of managers think payroll and veterans are the key to winning. Aren't they? It hasn't helped us the past 3 seasons, has it? TALENT and payroll, maybe.

Perhaps because he's old, it might be his last chance to manager, the Yankees job is unavailable, SF is too far and the Cubs spend a lot of money on payroll and employ lots of veterans. Lots of managers think payroll and veterans are the key to winning. So he's coming here because he thinks he can win.

I think he'll be okay as long as he has a mix of young/veteran players, not a whole roster of young players like he did in Tampa.

wow, none of those things are particularly important for a 1 or 2 hitter. Are you kidding me? Have you watched the Dertroit Tigers? Granderson gets on base, then Polanco moves him over with a bunt, or the hit and run. Works out pretty well for them. Whitesox used it in 05 also. The White Sox offense was below average. The reason they weren't completely pathetic was because both teams had the ability to hit 200 home runs. I'd be willing to bet that the White Sox and Tigers would've scored more runs if they didn't get CS or give up outs in place of trying to get on base or something similar. Exactly. The whole White Sox/Small ball thing was a total crock. The 2005 Sox, like the 2006 version, was a slugging bunch that won because of their pitching.

wow, none of those things are particularly important for a 1 or 2 hitter. Are you kidding me? Have you watched the Dertroit Tigers? Granderson gets on base, then Polanco moves him over with a bunt, or the hit and run. Works out pretty well for them. Whitesox used it in 05 also. There is what is important. I will also say it is important for the number 2 hitter to make contact, but hitting the ball all over the field and stealing bases aren't critical for top of the order hitters.

who the hell's putting up an .800 OPS? soriano put up a .900+ OPS in the toughest hitter's park in the bigs in the toughest hitter's division in baseball. i can't see his numbers going down much playing all those games in gabp, mmp, miller park, etc. i'm also intrigued by the fact that he doubled his typical walk total last season. i'd give him 5/75 and play him at 2b/cf...whichever he wants. Take it easy - I said "Beltre light", and if you look it up, he never had a .900 OPS before last year. Now, may be he was so much better b/c he was playing LF and thus taking less of a beating, concentrating more on hitting, etc., but it bothers me that he did this in his walk year. Moreover, does someone alll of a sudden acquire plate discipline at age 30? Perhaps yes, but is it likely? I dunno, that's why I don't want to give him so much money and so many years. We don't have that kind of margin of error. Soriano put up similar numbers in 2002 and 2003, with just a handful of homers more in 2006. His walks were up this year, but his AVG down from those years. I wouldn't expect a significant dropoff in the coming years. Soriano's OPS this year was about .080 above his career OPS. Beltre's OPS in 2004 was nearly .250 above his career average, and .300 more than his 2003 and 2005. IMO, Beltre's contract year fluke deserves to be in a class of its own. Either way you want to look at it, Soriano isn't worth 15 million plus per year, IMO.

who the hell's putting up an .800 OPS? soriano put up a .900+ OPS in the toughest hitter's park in the bigs in the toughest hitter's division in baseball. i can't see his numbers going down much playing all those games in gabp, mmp, miller park, etc. i'm also intrigued by the fact that he doubled his typical walk total last season. i'd give him 5/75 and play him at 2b/cf...whichever he wants. That's the same thing people said about Beltre moving away from Dodger Stadium. And Lee from Pro Player. Soriano has had a lot more consistent success than Beltre, you know that. You can't compare the two. Plus, Yankee stadium is no picnic for right handed hitters, either. He has had four solid power seasons, three of which came in tough hitters parks. Will he hit nearly 50 homers every year? No. But 35-40 is reasonable to expect on an annual basis. Is 40 homers, 30+ SB and a mediocre OBP worth the price he will be asking? Probably not.