dew1679666265

The problem is he'll be 35 before next season and is likely to start declining. I'm not sure I'd want him for 2010 (unless he came on a cheap, one-year deal).

Something we don't have much of. That might make Wells a tad more attractive, but Marshall is too valuable and Kevin Hart has little to no value.

If we offer Seasn Marshall, were giving up too much. If we offer Kevin Hart or Mitch Atkins, its not enough. So wheres the in between? Hart or Atkins+ a few lower pitching prospects? That doesnt sound unreasonable. I would think it'd be based somewhat around a guy like Jay Jackson. Not an elite prospect, but a pretty good one. Randy Wells might also be a guy to base the deal around if the Indians are in love with his start to the year. You have to consider that if the Indians keep him and offer arbitration, he'd be worth a pair of first round picks to them. We'd have to come close to that kind of compensation to get them interested, I'd imagine. I wouldn't give up Marshall or Jackson for DeRosa. I wouldn't either. If I felt comfortable that DeRosa would be a Type A player, I'd be willing to give more, but Jackson or Marshall would be too much for me. How much value would guys like Tony Thomas and Tyler Colvin have? Maybe if Wells puts together a couple more very good starts, we could try something around him and one (or both) of Thomas or Colvin? I'd be far more willing to do something like that - especially if DeRo is able to work his way up to Type A status. That trade would give the Indians a young pitcher with some upside (Wells), a young middle IF (Thomas) and/or a young outfielder with a little upside (Colvin) to add some depth in attempting to fill left field long-term. We then get DeRosa for half a season and then either a sandwich pick or a pair of first rounders.

He's only 26, still cheap and very talented. I don't think he'd come cheap if he's even available.

This is assuming Martinez's bat can play at 1B. Martinez's eqa in 2006 was .293 and in 2007 it was .296. Last year was much worse, but he was injured. If he can return to those 06 and 07 numbers (not completely unrealistic given this year's start), he can play at first - especially at less than $10 million a year. He'll also have a whole lot of innings behind the plate under his belt. Yeah, that's why that if is a definite question. If he can produce in that .850-.870 range, I think he'd be fine at first if his salary doesn't rise much (or at all) over next year's option ($7 million). He'll cost less than a top flight first baseman, so he won't have to produce like one.

This is assuming Martinez's bat can play at 1B. Martinez's eqa in 2006 was .293 and in 2007 it was .296. Last year was much worse, but he was injured. If he can return to those 06 and 07 numbers (not completely unrealistic given this year's start), he can play at first - especially at less than $10 million a year.

Pure speculation only, to my knowledge.

It'd be a move made with this year and next in mind. After that, Lee would be gone and Martinez would shift to 1B.

Yes, that's true. The problem lies in the fact that even when you take their career splits vs. left handers you're dealing with numbers that are small enough that's not a good idea to draw any statistical inferences from them. Even if we don't have the evidence to draw a certain conclusion, their career numbers are far more meaningful than this year's stats, though. And for their careers, Kosuke has been quite a bit worse against lefties than Reed has.

Huh? Fuku does not hit left handed pitching better than Reed. Are you sure about that ??? vs Left AB R H 2b 3b HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS BABIP P/PA IsoD RBI% Fukudome 12 3 3 1 0 1 3 3 5 0.250 0.400 0.583 0.983 0.333 4.20 0.150 0.250 Johnson 45 7 14 4 1 1 8 4 6 0.311 0.392 0.511 0.903 0.342 3.37 0.081 0.200 That's a tiny sample size for both. Over their careers, Reed is 100 points better in OPS than Kosuke.

Thanks. It appears he's only nine points (is that the right term?) behind the current Type A designations, so I wonder how strong a second half he'd need to break into it.

I don't. 2008 Soto, definitely. 2009 Soto, not so much. I wouldn't have traded 2008 Soto for Martinez straight up. Soto hasn't been horrible the past 30 days. I'll take .260/.375/.480 from him the rest of the season and be fairly happy. Oh absolutely. He's definitely been picking it up, but overall this season he hasn't been particularly good.

The guy that seems to have figured out the formula has him as a 2B. They are thrown in with the third basemen, though. Also, some dumb stats are used for the rankings. A little bit of the rankings Bottom 5 Type A's Mike Lowell ----- 79.29 Jason Bartlett Orlando Cabrera Scott Rolen Melvin Mora ----- 69.29 Top 10 Type B's Adrian Beltre ------ 68.57 Placido Polanco Chone Figgins Mike Aviles Aaron Hill ----- 64.6 Jose Lopez Howie Kendrick Robinson Cano Mark DeRosa ----- 60.25 Brendan Harris The data was last updated on June 11. This should be taken with a grain of salt, but he seems to have gotten it right the last two years. Does that take into account a strong end to the season? I don't know how the numbers can change, but if DeRo ends the year with numbers similar to last year that may be enough. I don't know how the system works, though, so I could be way off. If he's not a Type A after the season, that changes what we'd likely have to give up in a trade - if we are, in fact, interested.

That's if they're certain they won't offer arbitration. And even if they won't, I would expect them to use it in the negotiations anyway. They don't have to tell other teams they won't offer him arbitration. They might end up taking less if they don't plan to offer it, but a team will have to be prepared to pay dual draft pick price.

I don't. 2008 Soto, definitely. 2009 Soto, not so much. I wouldn't have traded 2008 Soto for Martinez straight up.

I don't.

Fuku OPS v LHP: .739 Fuku OPS v RHP: .768 Reed OPS v LHP: .839 Kosuke has a better average and OBP against lefties interestingly enough (though both are very minimal differences), but he slugs better against righties.

They just gave us Stevens, I don't think they'd want him back. Any players we send them will have to be comparable to the talent they could draft in the first round. We don't have many players like that, so we'd have to give some upper echelon talent (upper echelon in our system, at least) for DeRo. If they like Colvin, they might bite on him as part of the deal - allowing for a lesser pitcher(s) to be included - but he won't be cheap.

Here's the Lilly signing thread. Most people were ok with Lilly as a secondary option, with the favorites being Schmidt, Padilla and Zito. Feelings were mixed, definitely, and there wasn't a lot of outrage, but there was quite a bit of worry that the money was too high. His inconsistency before the Cubs was brought up quite a bit as well.

If we offer Seasn Marshall, were giving up too much. If we offer Kevin Hart or Mitch Atkins, its not enough. So wheres the in between? Hart or Atkins+ a few lower pitching prospects? That doesnt sound unreasonable. I would think it'd be based somewhat around a guy like Jay Jackson. Not an elite prospect, but a pretty good one. Randy Wells might also be a guy to base the deal around if the Indians are in love with his start to the year. You have to consider that if the Indians keep him and offer arbitration, he'd be worth a pair of first round picks to them. We'd have to come close to that kind of compensation to get them interested, I'd imagine.

I'd definitely do it. But would Cleveland? Also, money would likely be a hang up. Martinez is making $5.7 million this year with a club option for $7 million next year. Could we afford him? I don't trade Soto now. His value is at its lowest. the league has adjusted to him. He's actually doing better right now than I expected. I think over the rest of the year he makes adjustments of his own, and carries his significant weight. Now is not the time to trade him. Victor Martinez is what Soto could become, though. Plus, there's no certainty that Soto will turn it on. As I said, the pay raise from Soto to Martinez would be an issue, but if we can afford the raise, it'd be worth it if Soto doesn't drastically improve.

I don't think a team would fake an injury with their (currently) best reliever. If he just needed a couple days off, I think they just would have made him unavailable. Now, I don't think his injury is particularly serious (why Lou went ahead and pitched him Saturday), but I do think he's injured.

Just an interesting tidbit: Heilman over the past month: 2.16 ERA, 1.459 WHIP, 5.8 K/9 The WHIP is too high, but he's getting the outs. He's not been as good as Gregg, but he is our sixth best reliever (fifth until Gooz comes back).

Yeah, I saw your edit after I posted. But then, I didn't feel like going back and editing mine. :) Good years? Yes. Fantastic years that neither have touched in nearly a decade? Not much of a chance. Guys don't necessarily implode at 39, I agree, but at this point you worry about fatigue and injuries - can their body hold up to the grind of a full season while still putting up the best season they've had in nearly a decade? Very unlikely. None of them have any likelihood to be more than a mid-3s pitcher by the end of the year. We already have four pitchers who could easily be in that range - Gregg, Marmol, Guzman and Ascanio. We also don't have much in the way of good prospects. Adding a reliever at all would be a luxury. Giving up a good to very good prospect for one who is pitching well above his head is not a luxury we can afford with a weak minor league system. I wouldn't. We've got four good to very good relievers now and Heilman can be solid to good. Adding a reliever to an already decent to good bullpen is not important enough to be our only deadline move.

Really? And an ERA in the 1's and 2's is also in the "David Weathers, Arthur Rhodes, and a few guys out of the Sox bullpen who might get moved if the Sox don't start winning" range. That quote was mine. And it was in response to you referring to Gregg having ERAs in the 4s and 5s. The last time he was remotely close to those numbers were in 2005 and 2006. And you really think that Weathers and Rhodes will sustain their ERAs? Weathers hasn't posted a 2.66 ERA or even in that range since 2002. Rhodes is a LOOGY, meaning he pitches only against lefties. You're buying high for relievers who are either extremely likely to decline (Weathers) or will only help against lefties (Rhodes). And keep in mind, both are 39 years old - an age where they're likely to get worse as the season progresses. As for the Sox relievers, Linebrink has been a mid-3s pitcher since 2005. Carrasco has been in the fours (3.98 one year) nearly every year in the majors. Neither is likely to sustain their current 2-something ERAs, but you're going to have to pay like they are. Thornton might sustain close to what he's doing, but again, you're going to have pay dearly for a guy with a 2.05 ERA right now.