dew1679666265

polanco pops out to shallow center, fuku makes the catch. heading to the fourth, no score.

granderson steals second. geo nearly had him

granderson singles to right. polanco up, one on, two out

harden starts the inning with a K and then gets adam everett to ground out to third. two outs, none on, granderson up

Hmm. I was expecting to see Randy Wells on that list. I guess this guy considers wins more important than anything, considering Matt Palmer and his 4.70 ERA was on there. The Palmer selection was due to intangibles, it appears. Wells should be on that list.

soriano grounds into a 5-4-3 DP. heading to the bottom of the third, no score

fontenot grounds to second with soto running. soto thrown out at third, one out, runner on first

Soto doubles down the left field line. Runner on second, no outs, top 3

three straight flyouts end the inning. heading to the third, still scoreless.

Fuku k's, inning over.

Near triple play puts Fox on 1st with two out and Fuku up.

Yea, kind of odd. The lineup hasn't even been posted yet. First time I've had to pay attention to Len and Bob reading the lineups. :)

I think a lot of people are coming to the conclusion that if we hang on every single game of both our own, The brewers, and the Cardinals, between now and September, we'll go out of our minds. Many times Ive told myself Ill sit the game out, and I always fail. Yeah, I don't hang on every pitch either. That was an abnormally small number, though.

Two people in the forum two minutes before gametime . . .

Yeah, I didn't make the connection with the 1*OBP2 being one long number. I didn't understand (and still don't really) that you could use the OBP2 to subtract from the 1.8.

I understand that they are equations, but the process doesn't make sense to me. The author is essentially making a substitution to eliminate a variable in the equation. I'll try to do the same process, except showing each and every step, and then see if it makes sense. We have two equations: Eq 1: 1.8 * OBP2 + SLG2 = 1.12 Eq 2: -OBP2 - SLG2 = -0.9 Step 1: The second equation can be rewritten like so: -OBP2 - SLG2 = -0.9 -OBP2 = SLG2 - 0.9 SLG2 = 0.9 - OBP2 Then we can substitute the right half of that equation (0.9 - OBP2) in for SLG2 in the first equation, and we get: 1.8 * OBP2 + (0.9 - OBP2) = 1.12 Finally, simplify the equation: 1.8 * OBP2 - OBP2 = 1.12 - 0.9 0.8 * OBP2 = 0.22 Ok, so the 1.8 is connected to the OBP2. I was thinking of them as two different numbers not connected at all (except for being in the same equation). I didn't think you could subtract from the 1.8 to get rid of the second OBP2. Thanks, I'm ok using numbers but equations get me a bit.

Not a surprise. I know, but until now, there was at least the small glimmer of hope that Id check MLBTR in the next few weeks or even days and read about the Cubs aquiring someone like DeRosa, Teahen, Branyan, or Lopez. Every bit of evidence up to this point has supported Hendry waiting. I was hoping for a move earlier, but if Hendry can only make one trade it's probably better to wait and make sure it's the right deal.

I understand that they are equations, but the process doesn't make sense to me.

Maybe it's my poor grasp of math, but why in this equation does the 1 go away in the 1.8 after you subtract? He went from 1.8*OBP2 to .8*OBP. Where did the 1 go?

Not a surprise.

I'm not eliminating any bad outings. I'm pointing out that looking only at this season is using a very small sample size. One bad outing (last night) dropped his numbers considerably. The reason I'm looking at the past two years for Gregg is because they were (mostly) full seasons. And the reason I'm looking at the Cubs tenure of Rojas and Alf is because I was pointing out they were bad closers during their Cubs tenure. Gregg has not been a bad closer throughout career. He hasn't been particularly good this season, but at least part of that is because of a horrible start to the year. For the past month he's been terrific, though, so there's reason to believe he'll be better the rest of the way than his start to the season. If he is, this year's numbers will be much better than what Alf and Rojas did as Cubs. If not, then he'll have been a bad closer for the Cubs as well. Looking at the past two seasons, it's likely Gregg's numbers will improve and his overall numbers will look pretty average (like they have the past two years) by the end of the season. That's the point I'm trying to make.

I'd rather not see stats on your warm and fuzzy feelings. :D I think Gregg is pretty average for a closer. I'd like to upgrade, but I just don't think most would be worth the cost.

. Interesting thanks. I had never really heard of that stat before.

It doesn't make him good, but nobody's arguing that - I don't think. He's a pretty average closer, no more, no less. Well first, I'm not sure what I was looking at, but I was wrong...he's 12th (out of 16) in the NL in save percentage, not 10th. And would be 12th (out of 14) in the AL as well, not 11th. Now maybe he's average in some other stats, but those are definitely below average. They are, but that's also not many chances. The only difference between Gregg and Chad Qualls is number of opportunities. Qualls has had two more opportunities and has converted them. A percentage in 14 chances isn't all that predictive, so you can't assume Gregg will follow the 76% success rate he's put up to this point. He's been better than Matt Lindstrom and Matt Capps in nearly everything but converted save opportunities. What is the average lead that Lindstrom and Capps face each outing? Do they have more or less 1-run leads to protect than Gregg? That plays a huge factor in save percentage. His overall numbers are more important than the fact that he's had fewer save opportunities than every pitcher on the list ahead of him and has blown three of those opportunities. And his overall numbers put him in a tie for 9th with Chad Qualls. That's slightly below average, but that's also after a horrible start to the year. If he continues to pitch the way he has for the past month, those numbers will only improve.

It doesn't make him good, but nobody's arguing that - I don't think. He's a pretty average closer, no more, no less.