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I wasn't the one who brought up 2005, it was Mojo. And also, I'm not suggesting we bring in a guy with an ERA in the 3's to replace Gregg. I'm suggesting we bring in a guy with an ERA in the 1's or 2's to replace maybe Heilman or Patton. Then, completely independent of that transaction, I would move Marmol to the closer spot once he gets his control back on track. There's not going to be any reliever capable of putting up an ERA in the 1s or 2s that we are going to be able to acquire without giving up much. A reliever with an ERA in the 1s or 2s is a top-flight closer. That's good Marmol, Rivera, Hoffman's prime range. Would you trade last year's Carlos Marmol for "not that much"? I wouldn't. And you brought up Gregg's ERAs in the 5s and 4s. That's 2005 and 2006. He's been in the 3s the past two years and is currently in the 3s.

I don't think it would be very hard to pry a good reliever away from a team that has no chance of making the postseason. We could probably get a guy like David Weathers fairly easily. I mean, think about all the good relievers we've given away for nothing over the last few years... we just need someone to do the same to us... Weathers has had an ERA in the mid-3s every year since 2004. He's better this year, but how long will that last for a 39 year old pitcher? Otherwise, we're giving up prospect(s) for a guy who - at best - is the same as Gregg. IMHO, a 3.73 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP are not good enough to close for a team of the Cubs' caliber. Especially since I wouldn't be surprised to see those numbers go up as the year progresses. I do agree, though, that we should go with Marmol or Guzman. I'm just saying, if we did that, we should get someone to replace the role currently occupied by either Marmol or Gooz. Marmol: 3.58 ERA and 1.531 WHIP He's a better pitcher than that obviously, but until he fixes whatever is wrong with his control I don't see how he's an improvement over Gregg.

Well... how can you eliminate his starts, and then say his numbers were good for a guy bouncing between the rotation and the pen? That would only apply if you were including both his starts and his relief appearances... and 4.42 is not acceptable for a closer, even if he starts 30 games a year and closes full time :-)) He wasn't a closer in 2005. It's pretty clear, judging by his stats, that he's been a better pitcher from 2006-2009 than he was in 2005. If he posts a 4.42 ERA this year, then I'll likely agree he wasn't very good for us. However, even after his terrible start, he's still posting a 3.73 ERA. I'd say it's very unlikely we'll get a 4.42 ERA from him. Do you think it's more likely? I haven't checked, but I'm sure Michael Wuertz isn't making 10 mil this year, and we didn't need to part with any prospects to make him our set-up man. My point is that we don't need to go get a big-name closer. There are plenty of really good set-up type relievers that don't make alot of money. We could acquire one of them, make Marmol the closer, and make Gregg the 7th inning guy. I realize that it's possible Marmol won't be as good as a closer as he is as a set-up man, but I would at least like to see how it works. You don't like Gregg because of mid-3s ERAs, but you want to give up resources to bring in a guy who has been above a 3 ERA for the past three seasons? I don't understand. I don't know of any good set-up type relievers that would be a significant upgrade over Gregg and wouldn't cost a pretty decent prospect. As for moving Marmol to closer, he's struggling to throw strikes this season and is posting a 3.58 ERA - he's walked more than a batter per inning. I'd want to see some improvement with his control before I considered a move to the closer's role. Marmol is a better pitcher than Gregg, but with the way he's pitching now it doesn't make sense to put him in a perceived more important role.

It sounds like it's just preventative since the bullpen has been taxed so hard.

Money's the problem for us it sounds like. I don't think he'll make a huge positive impact wherever he goes, since he likely doesn't have the gas to be a reliable starter. He'll help any of the three teams' pens, but that's not enough to worry me if our offense is putting it together.

If Guzman is just out for two weeks and no more, I still don't think it's worth the prospects it'd likely cost. If he's out longer than that (like most of the season), then maybe. How do you feel about Wood as a closer? Kerry, after all, has one less blown save (10) since last season than Gregg has in the same time span (11). Also, in the two seasons that his ERA was higher than mid-3s (2005 and 2006) he started two and three games each season. If you eliminate the starts and calculate only the relief appearance ERAs, he had a 4.42 and 3.48 ERA. Not stellar, but for a guy bouncing between the bullpen and rotation, it's not bad. That does give him three straight seasons of relief ERAs in the mid-3s. Rod Beck did that in the middle of his career and Robb Nen even had two out of three seasons with a 3+ ERA. If you want much better than that, you're going to have to be ready to part ways with Jay Jackson/Josh Vitters/Sean Marshall/someone else important and/or pay upwards of $10 million dollars. I'll keep that group of prospects, spend the money elsewhere and keep a closer with a 120 or better ERA+ the past two years.

I definitely agree that for the right package they'd move him. However, I think you're overexaggerating the gap between the "experts" (Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, etc) and a teams' view of a player. In the McClouth trade, for instance (since it was brought up), the Pirates thought more highly of Gorkys Hernandez than most of the minor league services did. However, there are few I've seen who don't think he can be a starter in the majors. So while I agree there's a gap there, it's not big enough to turn a non-prospect into the centerpiece of a deal for a legitimately productive player. The Cubs have a lot of non-prospects and fringe prospects.

The National Football Post has an interesting series going where they're looking at the best NFL prospects on each college team. It's an interesting read of college players from an NFL perspective.

Lilly's got to be an all-star. A 151 ERA+ is really hard to beat. Sixth best in the NL. And not to threadjack or anything, but I didn't realize how good Johnny Cueto has been this year until just now. 2.17 ERA, and a 206 ERA+, both tops in the NL. I didn't check beforehand, but I expected Lilly to be a bit higher than sixth best. That still should be good enough for an All-Star invite, though.

I just don't see where he's on the edge of imploding. He's had 120+ ERA+s the past two seasons. The K:BB ratios leave some to be desired, but his results have been good. I just don't see the likelihood that he does far worse the rest of this year than he did the past two.

I'd definitely do it. But would Cleveland? Also, money would likely be a hang up. Martinez is making $5.7 million this year with a club option for $7 million next year. Could we afford him?

Not a big sample size, but three straight good starts for Nolasco since coming back up. I've picked him up in a couple of my leagues.

I'd just stick with Blanco/Scales until Aramis came back. Their production isn't likely to be that much worse than Grudz at this point and their defense is likely much better. When Aramis comes back, Blanco likely is the one to keep.

What about Jake Peavy and Pedro Martinez? Closer and set up man. I didn't mention that those four I listed won't give up a run in the second half of the season, thus cementing themselves as playoff starters? :D

Oh I agree completely that they'd be willing to deal him for the right package. The right package isn't likely to be fringe major league castoffs or old, expensive vets, though. Plus, if the assumption is that the Royals will try to contend (a reasonable assumption), then Cruz and Mahay will be important pieces to their pen. DeRosa is on the trade block because he's a valuable piece to a team - one that teams will be willing to pay good value for. Teahen is the same way. I think the Royals would be fine with keeping him or dealing him, but they have no immediate need to trade him, so he's not going to come dirt cheap.

Guzman has the makings to be that "stud reliever," and Ascanio has shown he could be adapting well to the bullpen roll. Those two and Marmol plus Gregg and Heilmann and then whoever is a very solid pen. As an aside, that series of trades that turned Jacque Jones into Jose Ascanio are starting to look very good.

The only reason I would prefer Patton going back to the Rockies is because he's taking up a roster spot that could/should be used for a bat. But, I do like his potential, so I won't complain too much if he ends up being a cheap, productive reliever after this year. I wouldn't go after a big-time reliever at this point, though. If we have the prospects to get one, it'd wipe out our minor league system too much for less than a major need. If we make a pre-deadline deal, I'd prefer it to be for offense to improve the bench.

Lilly's got to be an all-star. A 151 ERA+ is really hard to beat.

I understand that. My point is being missed again. I'm just saying that it would be nice to have pitchers who are good enough to use in clutch situations, whether it's the regular season or the WS. We have guys down there just to fill out the roster that only get used in blowouts... and I think we could use another reliable option down there to solidify things. And I know nobody is really defending Patton here, but I think it's ridiculous that we have someone on our roster just because we can't send him down. If the guy isn't ready, let him go. It's not like he's gonna be the next Cy Young... Most teams have a reliever or two that aren't completely trustworthy. I'd rather let Patton go back to the Rockies as well, but he's not going to be the difference between making the playoffs/winning the World Series and not making the postseason. Heilman can be a solid reliever and is quite suited to his sixth reliever out of the pen role. There really aren't that many bullpens that have very good to great pitchers as their sixth reliever. As long as our top five are good (which it's appearing more and more that they are), we have plenty of depth for most occasions.

This describes the DeRosa/Indians trade to a Tee. Who knows. Maybe the Royals have their own version of the Cubs' wanting to get more lefthanded. Heck everyone seems to be down on the Pirates for the McLouth trade too. Point being you never know what the other side might say yes to. The Teahen/DeRosa situations actually aren't all that similar. DeRo is 34 years old and costs $5.5 million a year. With his likelihood to decline (which I think is a bit overstated), the Cubs were selling high on him. Teahen, on the other hand, is making just over $3.5 million this year, is 27 and is still arbitration eligible after the season. He's cheaper and younger than DeRo and may still improve with the bat. There's far less reason to trade Teahen than DeRosa.

Yeah, Marmol is the classic case of a pitcher who just needs to trust his stuff and throw the ball over the plate. His movement alone will make most people miss his pitches. i think marmol trusts his stuff, but i also think he tries to strike guys out on junk pitches when he should just let the nastiness of the pitch beat them. but sometimes he just can't throw strikes - i'm not sure if it's inconsistency with his mechanics or his release point, or if he's aiming the ball too much, but it's a problem that has gotten worse this season. I agree, though "trust his stuff" may not have been the best phrase. He does have a tendency to nibble, something a pitcher with his kind of stuff has no need to do. You're right about this season, though. He's been much more wild than just nibbling would account for, and likewise I don't know why. The stuff is still just as good as ever, so it's almost got to be mechanical.

If it makes you feel any better, he's only 23 and had 54 major league PAs before this season. He was also OPSing .975 in the minors this season, but had sketchy at best numbers before that.

Yeah, Marmol is the classic case of a pitcher who just needs to trust his stuff and throw the ball over the plate. His movement alone will make most people miss his pitches.

Florida Sun-Sentinel, Aug. 30, 2008 Like SSR said, he lost the closer's role due to injury, not lack of performance. He left town because the Marlins saw a chance to unload a $5 million player for a young, promising prospect. That's their MO, no matter how good a player is. Our 4-man playoff rotation is likely to be Z, Harden, Lilly, Dempster. We'll have Marshall, Gregg, Marmol, Wells, Guzman, Ascanio and one more pitcher's spot available. Both Heilman and Patton are unlikely to be on the playoff roster at the same time, much less in any kind of important role in the pen.

JP Losman, Larry Tripplett and Eric Powell are heading to the UFL to play.