CubsInNC

Raisin, Any indication where in the field Ronny is positioned and how the defense is coming?

Keep hitting F5, like the rest of us. Those server admins just love it.

Protection isn't usually ever a factor. As far as having a metric to measure it's effect? My memory is that metrics tend to show that it doesn't matter how you construct a lineup in terms of the batting order and its productivity. Could be wrong, though. Actually, that was the perceived thought until 3 of the foremost sabermetric minds published The Book Batting order does matter. In one of Bill James Abstracts in the early 80s he showed that it doesnt make a big difference who is hitting around you. I dont know if "The Book" disspells that notion but it sure looked interesting Do you remember in the Abstract if Bill James looked at all players, or only great players, or...? I don't have statistical data to back it up, and it may be all emotional and cliche based, but I would fathom that players with a very high success rate already established would perform better in situations where they are protected, because they're already prone to success, moreso than guys who are average to below average would succeed. Jeff Kent was a great offensive second baseman. His offensive skills were, in my theory, shown off more, because batting in front of the best offensive player and most prolific homerun hitter in the MLB, he saw more hitters pitches per PA, than he would have, if he had a below-average regular player hitting behind him. Players with high success rates, tend to demonstrate that success across the board. So they are more likely to succeed in situations where they see more favorable pitches per PA at a higher rate of success than those who see the "average number of hitters pitches". Just my theory, and could very well be false.

Lefty, I am no business analyst, by any stretch of the imagination. But would the Tribune Co. stabilize itself, simply by selling off the "out of town" business? I know they own quite a few newspapers from outside Chicago, such as, I believe the LA Times and Baltimore Sun. Would divestiture from these assets relieve them of the apparent cash crunch they find themselves in? Basically, returning to a focus of Chicago-based attention (Tribune/Cubs/WGN/suburban papers)? I'm not hoping they do that, but for years that's what made them uber-successful, and I could see them attempting to return there.

They would likely still be responsible for all deferred money through the times that he was employed under that contract, which they currently have payouts scheduled through 2025, I believe. Anything after this contract year, minus the deferred money from the start of contract through end of the year, will be nullified.

QFT

OH JESUS!! I'm going to freaking lose it. What a sham. So you laugh about said "meaningless" arguement...and then make said arguement. Cool. Three year splits Soriano: .275/.329/.519 (will be 31 years old in January) A. Ramirez: .304/.361/.569 (28 years old) So, Mr. Couch, your solution is to deny $15 to Ramirez and instead spend $17 on Soriano who is a) older; and b) less productive. YOU ARE A GENIUS!! http://www.dhadm.com/images/uploads/guinness_6pack_thumb.jpg Brilliant!!!

Holy Schnikeees! (And no wonder Ramirez opted for FA. He'll get more than Alphonso!) Are my timetables off, or is Soriano still in the exclusive negotiation window with his former team? If so, what would be the penalty with "player tampering" of this nature. Would it be forfeiture of the contract, should he sign 1 with them?

If Hendry fails to resign Aramis, D-Lee would be the keystone to any deal with Detroit that would net us much of anything in return. But let's not kid ourselves here, Hendry could always hold out for the "established veteran" who "saved us." Buf if Aramis walks, Detroit could be a suitor for him as well. If we were to send D-Lee to Detroit, I'd ask for Miller and Maybin, minimum. I'd probably get laughed out of the league, but that's where I'd start.

I think a 2 year plan is needed, but Jim Hendry's job is on the line and he sure won't want to rebuild. I agree with the 2 year assessment. Aside from a HUGE bump in payroll, and the luck to get at least 3 of the top 10 free agents available (2 SPs and 1 thumping bat at 2B or CF) we're not really gonna have much of a viable chance next year. I'm just not banking on us getting those FAs we need.

blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Guys, give it a rest. You don't agree, and you likely won't ever on this subject. No sense in dragging it out to other threads.

I kinda understand the philosophy on looking for a walk. I don't necessarily embrace it, but I think I understand. I think, to an extent, they're being taught/have learned, that if it's known that you're going up to the plate to walk, the pitcher is just going to throw you strikes, and you get down 0-1 or 0-2, pitcher counts where you have to swing at their pitches. Whereas, the players that the Cubs seem to covet, are of the understanding that you go up to the plate, be patient, but look for your pitch to hit, and hit it well. They imply that if you do that, the walks will come. And in theory, that's not a bad philosophy to embrace, because if you're fouling off strikes that aren't your pitch, and taking all balls, you will walk. However, you're dealing with hitters organizationally who tend to strike out at alarming rates, which tells me that they're either unclear on what pitches are their pitches, or they just can't see the ball. In theory this should work, but, you can't draft "hitters" to do that. You have to draft pitch recognition guys.

Maybe it needs it's own thread, but this one also caught me by surprise. Link According to the Houston Chronicle, one of the changes is the drop of May 1 date for offering contracts to any of your own FAs whom you don't offer arbitration. I think this is probably labeled The Clemens Clause. But, it's nice.

And that's why I don't admin (among many other reasons) this site or 1 like it. I'd never pushed the thoughts that far. But it would be helpful. Simple queries targeting team's budgets 3 years down the road so you know now whom you likely will be able to get in a salary dump in 2 years.... I get it. It makes a TON of sense. But I think that it would make sense to get the stats up and running first, because that honestly will be the most likely strain on the server (probably need it's own tbh), and will likely eat up the most RAM and HD space. So adding contract data on top of that will be "child's play." This may not be PG enough, but I liken it to bittorrent trackers. There's usually a webserver, and a tracker, each run on seperate machine. Some of the more "potent" trackers likely have 3 seperate servers, if not a 4th. One exclusively for the needs of the database, one for webserver, one for tracker. This allows for the spread of the core processes across 3 boxes, 3 RAM sets, and 3 HDs. Mega good. The cost is going to be steep, but the cost is going to be steep any time you do it. What I'd suggest, and I don't know if you've done this in any steps so far, but I'd get it started now. Because it's also going to likely take the most time and effort. Once your biggest database is done, and operable, on your test machine, bring it over to the site (or if you have it internet accessible as is leave it) and let your mod's test it's functionality. Bring in a few people to see if they can break it. It's pretty much a guarantee that the stats DB will need it's own server because of the RAM and processor requirements. So, you don't have to bring it online until you're set with that. But developmentally, you probably need to have it done before you do any of the other parts that will tie in to that DB. It's almost as if you'd have to roll that, the blogs, and the player info out at the same time. Player info, so the stats are at least starting to be utilized, and blogs for the extra money. Once you get close to the roll-out (and it's been beta tested to hell and back), I'd advertise the coming stats and blogs on the front page, as well as mention the other things you know that are going to eventually happen. And maybe some of the members here (fans of this team or other teams) could make mention of the changes on those fansites. I'll assist you in any way I possibly can in this. If you don't have a beta test site for the stats DB, I can probably help you with that as well. Lemme know.

Tim, I would suggest this order: 1)Stats.nsbb.com Yeah, there are a lot of places online to find stats, but nothing that holds them all and keeps them quick at the fingertips. As much as we're mostly statheads, or at least, we realize their importance, this is probably the most logical place for us to start. 2)Players.nsbb.com This is what the Cubs are about. For now, I'd have basic Bio information, etc on them, and the stats, once they're done. I'd leave table space to import the transaction and contract wiki data. But we follow the players. No one holds a dearer place in a Cubs fan's heart than the players on the team, or players who were on the team. 3)Scouting.nsbb.com This is probably the next most important (to me) after stats. I don't live in cubville, or any of the surrounding minor league towns. But I do like to follow the people in the minors, as well as like to have access to any information I can get when the cubs acquire someone else's minor leaguers. The problem with this one is it will be the hardest to implement, imo, because of the vastness of the minor leagues, independant leagues, and foriegn markets. 4)blogs.nsbb.com (and I strongly encourage all bloggers to turn over ALL ad monies to Tim - we're in this for the love of the team, not the money!) As we add features we'll need more money to support the excess bandwidth, and server load. I have a feeling that if all this is implemented that multiple servers could be needed to handle the load. The money for this has to come from somewhere. This would also allow some of our better writers and sportswriters to ply their trade in the online forum. And could lead to them getting the media access we all covet that Bruce has. :P 5)Contractwiki.nsbb.com I'd say this is towards the bottom because there are good sources out there already for this information (Cot's, etc). It would be *very* nice if it was all kept on-hand but isn't a more "necessary" need than some of the others. 6)Transactionwiki.nsbb.com Same goes with this as well. (Some) Different sources for this information, but it would be very handy to have it all together. I'd be willing to help out any way I can.

The August 15th deadline for signing drafted players does not apply for college seniors. The replacing draft picks surprised me. It makes some sense, that it would help small market teams, somewhat. But what's to stop a team from drafting a signability issue this year, just to screw a team who legitimately could sign him, and thusly screw that player? I realize that MLB is a "gentlemanly" game, but c'mon, there are some pretty shrewd people running some of these organizations. On the latter, that's a good thing. When do the Rule V changes go into effect? I'm assuming this offseason (which means no decisions to make on anyone we already hadn't made decisions on).

Tim, Google just created their "Custom Search Engine" where you can customize a google search engine specifically to meet your informational (or site related) needs. From what I gather, it's supported by AdSense, and the person(s) who have the CSEs do get paid for clickthrus. As well as you can restrict it to only search a certain site (or sites). I instantly thought of it as a way to have search enabled for non-premium members, as it puts the load on google's servers, and could put more cash in your hand based on AdSense clickthrus. Here's there blogspot info release: http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2006/10/eureka-your-own-search-engine-has.html And the home page for CSEs http://google.com/coop/cse/

Really? I don't think it'd be enough for the Mariners to do it. Mainly because hes the face of their organization Call me skeptical, but if that's a headline this offseason, I fully expect it to be our acquisition of Chris Hammond, or the addition of someone like Hal Morris/Ricky Henderson to the coaching staff. I just don't have the positivity that the Cubs will do something blockbuster this offseason. But I have the feeling that if they do, they'll get fleeced because 29 other teams know that it's this year or die for Hendry.

In terms of 3B for the Yankees, what about the player that Akinori Iwamura? Anyone able to give realistic insight into his ability in MLB? Do you think they'd consider him to play 3rd, and take other pieces back in trade? I have a feeling that while he wouldn't command much by himself, the Yanks might be interested in getting Jones in a deal for A-Rod. No idea why, but my gut tells me that. Maybe it's the Taco Bell though.

That's not right, since Texas is paying a bunch. According to http://www.mlb4u.com/profile.php?id=991 He is due 27M in 2007-2010. Rangers are paying 7, 8, 7, 6. So the Yanks are set to pay: 20, 19, 20, 21. Now there is also a bunch of deferred money. I'm not really sure how all that works out. According to Cot's the Yanks owe A-Rod $64mil over 4 years after 2006 (at 16/yr) . The rest is all on Texas. That's the $11mil in salary each year until 2010, plus all of the deferred money. They also add that he "may opt out after 2007 unless he gets an $8M/year raise or $1M more than MLB’s highest-paid player." The total of mlb4u's salary 04-10 paid by texas is only $43mil, not $67mil which they say.

For this same argument, couldn't we assume that Rusch is out next year, and his contract is thus covered by insurance? We'd have his money added to what's available, but have 1 more hole to fill. With that assumption as well, my roster (with an extra $2M from Rusch and $0.95M not resigning Blanco, total = $25.95M) C - Barrett - $4.30M (under contract) 1B - Lee - $13.00M (under contract) 2B - Soriano - $11.00M (3yr $39mil with 2 additional vesting option years) 3B - Ramirez - $11.00M (under contract) SS - Izturis - $4.15M (under contract) LF - Murton - $0.35M (less than 3 years of service - under control) CF - Matthews Jr. - $3.00M RF - Hermida (Cedeno + Jones +1.6M to FLA = 1.95M total - under control) C - Soto - $0.35M (less than 3 years of service - under control frees up $1.15M) IF - Theriot - $0.35M (less than 3 years of service - under control) IF - Moore - $0.35M (less than 3 years of service - under control) OF - Pagan - $0.35M (less than 3 years of service - under control) OF - Craig Wilson - $3.00M SP - Zambrano - $10.0M (estimate $3.5M raise from 2006) SP - Schmidt - $12.5M (4yr - $53M) SP - Hill - $0.35M (less than 3 years of service - under control) SP - Marshall (or Mateo, Guzman or Marmol) - $0.35M SP - Prior - $4.20M (estimate $0.55M raise) RP - Dempster - $5.00M (under contract) RP - Eyre - $3.50M (under contract) RP - Howry - $4.00M (under contract) RP - Ohman - $1.00M (estimate $0.39M raise) RP - Wuertz - $0.35M ( less than 3 years of service - under control) RP - Aardsma (or Novoa) - $0.35M (less than 3 years of service - under control) RP - Wood - $1.25M + $3M buyout + $1M incentives Total payroll: $99.8M Bench is very weak, Rotation could be top notch. An '08 outfield of Hermida/Murton/Pie could be a cornerstone.... Edits: added roster, and corrected math, I hope.

I'd say depends. With A-Rod: 2 (getting beat in playoffs after both years) Without A-Rod: 1.5 (sub-.500)

Could it be that Aram's pushing this to see if he wants to negotiate a long-term deal now? Let's say, hypothetically, that the Cubs are sold during 07, and prepare to start '08 with new ownership. Now, that new manager, the GM, the president, etc are all potentially gone from there and someone new can take this team in an entirely new direction. Bring in their guys, etc. Would it be the least bit surprising that ARam wants to know those possibilities as well, before agreeing to be here for the next 5 years? If my relationship with the manager was important to me (dunno why), and going into negotiations it seemed as whoever came in was a 1yr lame duck, would you want to stick around? I can understand at least 1 reason for it.

Sadly enough, the bolded parts are the most likely to happen....

Non-Constructive criticism: I fear that outfield defense. I think Hector Villanueva might have a chance of hitting an inside-the-park homerun (single + 3 base error) on that defense. Constructive. I think your rotation has too many question marks. Zambrano is #1. Hill's maybe able to hold down a #3. I would let Prior and Miller fight it out for #4/5. I think we need someone stable to hold down the #2 (my preference is Schmidt on a 2/26), and I'd prefer to have someone else pickup #3(Wolf on a 1-yr $5mil deal to re-establish himself?), and slot Hill as a 4, and Prior as a 5. Re-sign Miller as insurance for Prior, and if Prior's still healthy come May 31, trade him. Miller's not 100% yet, and unless he works hard this offseason, I don't know that he will be in the Spring. Offensively, that lineup should score well. But I'm not sold on Theriot keeping up this pace as a FT major leaguer. I hope he does, and there is some minor league analysis that could indicate he will, but I'm not convinced yet. I'd try to get Soriano for 2B. I'd like to explore the possibility of trading Jacque, since he might be amenable to a move with Dusty gone. I'd shoot for Lofton or Sarge Jr as my 1yr stopgap in CF. Can Shannon Stewart play RF? I can see Hendry drooling over him because of his 3yr splits on BA-RISP. On the bench, I'm not sure about improving it, but I don't think we can sustain a bench with 3 non-hitters (Cedeno, Soto, Pagan), 1 hitter (Wilson), 1 possible hitter (Moore), and a complete question mark (Fontenot). I look at it this way with Fontenot. There has to be a reason that given the Cubs firesale, no one took him off our hands for something we desired more, in a package. Even if the Cubs de-value him unnecessarily, do the other 29 teams? I almost would rather have Theriot as my bench middle infielder, over Cedeno. I'd be content to let him get a fresh start in AAA (at SS/2B rotation) or some other team. Pipe dreams, I know.