brinoch

Great stuff. I have some followup that I'll write tonight, hopefully, but I'm swamped at work today.

It was present in 2007, as well, though these numbers are of limited utility given the personnel differences. 2007 MIL vs. RHP: .252 .316 .439 .755 2007 MIL vs. LHP: .288 .360 .499 .860 Here are the individual splits ( ignoring the Gwynn/Kapler platoon in CF) from 2007: Rickie Weeks 2007 vs. RHP: .225 .352 .435 .787 2007 vs. LHP: .258 .421 .427 .849 Prince Fielder 2007 vs. RHP: .301 .414 .686 1.100 2007 vs. LHP: .261 .355 .479 .834 Ryan Braun 2007 vs. RHP: .282 .319 .526 .845 2007 vs. LHP: .450 .516 .964 1.480 Corey Hart 2007 vs. RHP: .278 .320 .504 .824 2007 vs. LHP: .331 .419 .613 1.032 J.J. Hardy 2007 vs. RHP: .264 .306 .423 .729 2007 vs. LHP: .316 .371 .579 .950 Bill Hall 2007 vs. RHP: .247 .305 .408 .713 2007 vs. LHP: .270 .335 .459 .795 Jason Kendall 2007 vs. RHP: .259 .315 .326 .641 2007 vs. LHP: .198 .261 .262 .523

ri-friggin-diculous. Milwaukee has a significantly better split against lefties than they do against righties: vs. RHP: .232 .298 .358 .656 vs. LHP: .290 .354 .534 .888

He's Donovan McNabb in disguise.

Even if Theriot figures it out and plays at 100% of his ceiling, is he better than Cedeno playing at 90% of his? No way to tell because who the hell knows their ceilings. But if you trust PECOTA (and I personally do), I'd suggest that the answer is obvious and a lot lower than Cedeno at 90%.

It is not, in fact, just as likely for a 28-year-old player to have a breakout season as it is for a 25-year-old. Now you're absolutely right about the sample sizes involved here being pretty meaningless, but the fact of the matter is that Cedeno has a higher ceiling; it's simply not a NEW fact. First of all, welcome to the Board. Now that you're here, you not be aware of this, but I've been a long time supporter of Cedeno. I wanted him to start over Theriot all offseason. However, with Soriano out, why is it verboten to play both Cedeno and Theriot? It's not. In fact, it's almost certainly the best move for the team given Murton's struggles. I just don't think there's any reason to pitch a fit until that decision is forced on us. Age 28 seasons are typically among the peak years for a player -- Theriot could certainly be having a break-out season. I'd suggest that a 28 year old having a great season after a sub-par Age 27 season isn't unheard of. Given that 25 is pre-peak and 28 is among the peak years, I believe it is more likely for a 28 year-old than a 25 year-old to have a break-out season. I could be wrong, of course, but that's my recollection. I absolutely agree that Cedeno has higher ceiling. No question about it (in my mind). And, actually, it is Ronny's ceiling and his likely progression as a player making him more important, long-term, to the Cubs than Theriot. Even though Ryan and Ronny are providing roughly similar production, Cedeno is likely to improve and become a better player while Theriot is arguably at his peak. All that said, the sample sizes are still too small to draw any meaningful conclusions.

Anyone know why CSN has no sound on DirecTV?

As much as I hate to say this, there's as much chance that Ryan has figured it out as Ronny. Hard to say just yet since the sample's pretty small. Let's play them both and see how they do.

No offense, but the debate has gone off-topic. While you're right that it's clearly named, the last time I checked the thread wasn't named Cedeno vs. Theriot. Indeed, it is still named "Is it time to make Cedeno a starter?" If you want to debate Cedeno vs. Theriot, then make a thread called Cedeno vs. Theriot. It's tiresome reading the same pointless arguments in multiple threads and derailing otherwise good discussions into the same entrenched positions over and over again. The discussion here is about Cedeno starting/playing most games... and I think he should. I don't care whether he plays 2B or SS all that much. I'd prefer that he play SS, but I'm not going to whine if he starts at 2B instead. And, as I've said repeatedly in this thread, the issue is perhaps more about Cedeno vs. Fontenot than it is Cedeno vs. Theriot. But, no one wants to discuss that. They'd rather rehash old, tired arguments. Seriously? I understand if you're frustrated and tired of these arguments. But I have to question why you stop into a thread about whether Cedeno should start if you don't want to see people argue Cedeno v. Theriot. Soriano's going to be back in a week. At that point, DeRosa goes back to 2nd and Theriot and Cedeno are fighting over 1 spot. How is Cedeno v. Theriot off topic for this thread? No one wants to discuss Cedeno v. Fontenot b/c there's no discussion. Who wants to start Fontenot over Cedeno (other than Lou)? I read a lot of threads that I have absolutely no interest in as part of moderating the board. I actually have an interest in this thread, other than moderating it, because I happen to think that it is past time to make Cedeno a starter (Opening Day would have been better). I've also said this several times, as have others: there's no need to make this decision until Soriano is ready to come back. Let them both play. There's every reason to debate Fontenot and Cedeno in this thread, and little to for Theriot and Cedeno. Cedeno hasn't lost time to Theriot; he's lost it to Fontenot. Soriano is out so DeRosa went to LF with Fontenot starting at second. I learned a long time ago that problems have a way of solving themselves. This might be one of them. So, since playing Theriot and Cedeno aren't mutually exclusive, play them both and see how they hit and field day in and day out.

No offense, but the debate has gone off-topic. While you're right that it's clearly named, the last time I checked the thread wasn't named Cedeno vs. Theriot. Indeed, it is still named "Is it time to make Cedeno a starter?" If you want to debate Cedeno vs. Theriot, then make a thread called Cedeno vs. Theriot. It's tiresome reading the same pointless arguments in multiple threads and derailing otherwise good discussions into the same entrenched positions over and over again. The discussion here is about Cedeno starting/playing most games... and I think he should. I don't care whether he plays 2B or SS all that much. I'd prefer that he play SS, but I'm not going to whine if he starts at 2B instead. And, as I've said repeatedly in this thread, the issue is perhaps more about Cedeno vs. Fontenot than it is Cedeno vs. Theriot. But, no one wants to discuss that. They'd rather rehash old, tired arguments.

I made the point previously that there is no reason to cross the Cedeno/Theriot bridge right now since Soriano is on the DL and DeRosa is playing LF. Rather than a Cedeno vs. Theriot for one spot debate, this becomes a debate about three spots for five players -- Cedeno, DeRosa, Fontenot, Murton and Theriot. Play the best three, and right now, I think DeRosa, Cedeno and Theriot are those three. I'm actually getting tired of the dogmatic, nasty fight over this topic. There's no reason to make a decision on a full time SS until Soriano comes back. Let them both play. In addition, with DeRosa likely to occasionally spell Ramirez at 3B along with Soriano/Fukudome in OF, that opens more time for one of the two. The real debate here shouldn't be about playing Theriot over Cedeno,it should be about playing Fontenot over Cedeno.

Whatever it takes, right? :wink:

:amen: Love the jab. :D

Might have to wait seeing how hot Riot has been. No need to bench Theriot since there's a spot for both in the infield while Soriano is on the DL. Agreed, as shocked as I am to see me type it, I'd like to see Cedeno, Theriot, and DeRosa playing together for a few games. Me too. And, as luck would have it, we'll be facing some lefties here in the next few days. I will say that I think, long-term, the best offensive team (with Soriano on the DL) is: Soto Lee DeRosa Ramirez Cedeno Murton Pie/Johnson (platoon) Fukudome That said, as others have said, it might be that Theriot was just a crappy switch hitter and it depressed his numbers (anyone have his MiLB R/L splits?). Maybe he was tired last year from playing (doubtful). Maybe he figured something out (Possible to probable -- this does happen; see Cedeno and Soto for examples). Whatever it is, it's pretty certain that Theriot and Cedeno are both playing well right now, and I'm enjoying it.

Might have to wait seeing how hot Riot has been. There's no need to bench Theriot since there's a spot for both in the infield while Soriano is on the DL. DeRosa is going to continue playing LF most likely. That gives Lou the option play them both and bench Fontenot, who hasn't been hitting all that well. Frankly, I think the only reason Fontenot has been playing is because he's left-handed.

Normally, you'd be absolutely right. The problem is that Giants are not a normal organization. In short, they have a terrible farm system -- ranked #23 among MLB by Baseball America, and I think that's being generous (the Astros are last and their system is true awful). Of BA's Top 100 prospects, the Giants have 2 on the list (one of whom is a pitcher; the other is 17). Throwing a number of decent prospects at Sabean might very well work. Right now, there are several Cubs minor league and bench players that could start for SF and would be better than the aged drek they are throwing out there right now. A valid rebuilding strategy would be to use one of his chips to acquire decent, cheap talent, freeing them up to go after some free agents as well.

The Giants are exactly the team who needs a quantity of decent position prospects over one quality prospect. Not that I think they would trade Lincecum or Cain, but you might think about offering something like Murton, Patterson, Hoffpauir and Colvin.

At this point in the season, while I enjoy seeing the Brewers or Cardinals lose, I'm much more focused on just seeing the Cubs win. It's a long season, and all teams will have their ups and downs. That said, getting out to a good start is very important -- much more than people tend to think. Games in April and May count just as much as those in September.

You clearly did not respect the power of Neifury! There might have been beer involved, though I will neither confirm nor deny such a presence.

I suspect that Felix is receiving a lot of instruction from Lou and Gerald and I have no doubt that his career is far from over. I'm just thankful that Johnson is doing as well as he is while they iron out Pie's swing.

I wish all the best for Theriot and all Cubs players -- except for one: Neifi Perez. I recall watching a Cubs/Nats game in RFK with Mr. Wood where we discussed whether or not we were bad fans for wishing ill upon the House of Perez. We decided we were, indeed, good fans because Neifi was a pox on the Cubs' soul and was bad baseball incarnate.

Friedel was awesome today. He pretty much earned that point for Blackburn.

Sure, and I never said I had a problem with that... indeed, in my post I specifically said that I would have used Marmol/Wood for the 8th/9th. It's pulling Hill early, using Lieber and Marshall for short stints, and extending Marmol too much that I have the problem with. And I fairly clearly said that. The 7th had Marmol facing Paulino, Bautista and Morgan. Not exactly murderers row there. And certainly there's no need for your best reliever when your 4th or 5th best will get the job done -- allowing you to use your best reliever against their best hitters.

On the other hand, Cubs are 4-0 against the Pirates and 6-6 against everyone else. Nothing wrong with that! And, to be fair, we've gone (by series): 1-2 vs. Brewers 2-1 vs. Astros 3-0 vs. Pirates 1-2 vs. Phillies 2-1 vs. Reds 1-0 vs. Pirates That is pretty decent. The Phillies and the Brewers are both good teams and will be in playoff contention; the Reds aren't bad and are expected to be quite good -- maybe even contend. Think of it another way and we are 6-1 vs. the lesser teams and 4-5 vs. the better teams. That's how you make the playoffs... play .500 against the good teams and dominate the bad teams.

Probably because right now - those are the guys he trusts. Would you want to put Howry or Wuertz in a close game right now? I wouldn't and it looks like Lou wouldn't either. Let's not get caught up with long or short relief - just guys who will get outs until the rest of the bullpen straightens themself out. I hope/assume that will change in a couple weeks but for today it was smart and it worked. You can't get on track until and unless you're thrown out there a couple of times; it's a long season. Despite their early struggles vis-a-vis Lieber and Marshall's early successes, I still trust Wuertz and Howry in short situations more. Wuertz, by the way, is only pitching poorly in comparison to a small sample size. Wuertz has a 1.38 WHIP and his 5.63 K/9 is 4th among the bullpen (behind Marmol, Wood and Hart).