brinoch

The only problem with that philosophy is that it goes against the physics of hitting. If a batter is fooled he'll start is bat early. If it's inside he hits it hard, foul or fair, because he gets the fat of the bat on the ball. If it's outside he hits it weak of the end of the bat or misses the ball. It's a matter of physics. That and ball bearings. It's all ball bearing nowdays. I can't speak to the ball bearings, but if a player swings very early on an inside pitch, he's going to pull it way foul. It doesn't matter if he hits it hard or soft... Yes, if he swings very early. But if he doesn't, the chances of "rubbing up a new one" are increased by pitching the change-up inside. The point is that a pitchers wants to decrease the chances that the hitter gets the sweet spot of the bat on the ball. Speeding up the bat is one way to do that. But if you don't speed it up enough, inside pitches go far. According to the article, Lilly throws change-ups about 11% of the time. I seriously doubt that hitters were sitting on his change. And, I gotta tell ya, change-ups -- wherever they are located -- fly very, very far if the hitter has the timing. Did you bother to read my other posts in this thread or did you just skip them? That's the point I think is important that the author didn't delve into, the frequency of the change-ups Lilly throws. In 2007 it was obviously a good pitch for him probably because of the frequency with which it was thrown (I have no data to back this up). However it's a risky pitch. Most hitters do not have the power to drive a ball to the opposite field when they are fooled on off-speed pitches away. They roll over the ball and ground it weakly or they pop it up weakly. A batter can get fooled on an inside fastball or breaking ball and hit it out. That's why pitchers don't pitch inside and that's why you hear color guys constantly complaining about pitching inside (i.e., they want them to do more of it). Seriously, are you always this irascible? It's pretty annoying. Yes, I "bothered" to read your posts. Any change-of-pace pitch -- regardless of location -- is dangerous if a hitter can turn on it. That includes outside pitches... or those down the middle. The physics of a hit ball's flight path are heavily dependent, though not entirely dependent, upon the bat's location, angle and speed. A change-up on the outer half can be hit a long, long way. Just as one on the inner half. Irascible? Annoying is having a point made to you that you made several hours ago. The entire point of a change up, the ONLY reason it is thrown is to fool a batter into thinking it is a fastball. If the hitter is sitting on it and it's outside only most team's 3.4, and 5 hitters (and Mike Fontenot) have the power to drive a ball to the opposite field. Worst case is a double or a single (most of the time). If a batter tries to pull an outside pitch they ground out weakly. If he's fooled and his bat is sped up, he's are going to ground out weakly or pop up the pitch. If the pitch is inside and he hits the ball he will hit it hard most of the time, fair or foul. You don't see a lot of outside pitches hit 400 feet foul. If a batter is sitting on the change (a very stupid idea), I'd rather see it outside than inside. The odds and physics of hitting make it much more likely to have a good outcome. Last year Lilly used his change-up very effectively and against the odds, very wisely, if sparingly. Oh my God, I'm sorry your worshipfulness... I shouldn't have used the 11% number! Apparently you own that observation. Or, not as it were. Given that I am making a different point than you -- in point of fact, I don't agree with your analysis fully supporting baseball's conventional wisdom regarding change-ups -- I felt like making that point. Last time I checked, I can do that. And, you know what's annoying? Reading your extreme condescension and arrogance towards other posters throughout the board.

The only problem with that philosophy is that it goes against the physics of hitting. If a batter is fooled he'll start is bat early. If it's inside he hits it hard, foul or fair, because he gets the fat of the bat on the ball. If it's outside he hits it weak of the end of the bat or misses the ball. It's a matter of physics. That and ball bearings. It's all ball bearing nowdays. I can't speak to the ball bearings, but if a player swings very early on an inside pitch, he's going to pull it way foul. It doesn't matter if he hits it hard or soft... Yes, if he swings very early. But if he doesn't, the chances of "rubbing up a new one" are increased by pitching the change-up inside. The point is that a pitchers wants to decrease the chances that the hitter gets the sweet spot of the bat on the ball. Speeding up the bat is one way to do that. But if you don't speed it up enough, inside pitches go far. According to the article, Lilly throws change-ups about 11% of the time. I seriously doubt that hitters were sitting on his change. And, I gotta tell ya, change-ups -- wherever they are located -- fly very, very far if the hitter has the timing. Did you bother to read my other posts in this thread or did you just skip them? That's the point I think is important that the author didn't delve into, the frequency of the change-ups Lilly throws. In 2007 it was obviously a good pitch for him probably because of the frequency with which it was thrown (I have no data to back this up). However it's a risky pitch. Most hitters do not have the power to drive a ball to the opposite field when they are fooled on off-speed pitches away. They roll over the ball and ground it weakly or they pop it up weakly. A batter can get fooled on an inside fastball or breaking ball and hit it out. That's why pitchers don't pitch inside and that's why you hear color guys constantly complaining about pitching inside (i.e., they want them to do more of it). Seriously, are you always this irascible? It's pretty annoying. Yes, I "bothered" to read your posts. Any change-of-pace pitch -- regardless of location -- is dangerous if a hitter can turn on it. That includes outside pitches... or those down the middle. The physics of a hit ball's flight path are heavily dependent, though not entirely dependent, upon the bat's location, angle and speed. A change-up on the outer half can be hit a long, long way. Just as one on the inner half.

Good find, Bob. Anyone else notice some other names on the SLG list? 3 of 10 are Brewers: Ryan Braun, Bill Hall, and Rickie Weeks.

The only problem with that philosophy is that it goes against the physics of hitting. If a batter is fooled he'll start is bat early. If it's inside he hits it hard, foul or fair, because he gets the fat of the bat on the ball. If it's outside he hits it weak of the end of the bat or misses the ball. It's a matter of physics. That and ball bearings. It's all ball bearing nowdays. I can't speak to the ball bearings, but if a player swings very early on an inside pitch, he's going to pull it way foul. It doesn't matter if he hits it hard or soft... Yes, if he swings very early. But if he doesn't, the chances of "rubbing up a new one" are increased by pitching the change-up inside. The point is that a pitchers wants to decrease the chances that the hitter gets the sweet spot of the bat on the ball. Speeding up the bat is one way to do that. But if you don't speed it up enough, inside pitches go far. According to the article, Lilly throws change-ups about 11% of the time. I seriously doubt that hitters were sitting on his change. And, I gotta tell ya, change-ups -- wherever they are located -- fly very, very far if the hitter has the timing.

The only problem with that philosophy is that it goes against the physics of hitting. If a batter is fooled he'll start is bat early. If it's inside he hits it hard, foul or fair, because he gets the fat of the bat on the ball. If it's outside he hits it weak of the end of the bat or misses the ball. It's a matter of physics. That and ball bearings. It's all ball bearing nowdays. I can't speak to the ball bearings, but if a player swings very early on an inside pitch, he's going to pull it way foul. It doesn't matter if he hits it hard or soft...

Sounds good. What about Howry for Beltran? If the Mets don't win it this year, I wouldn't be surprised to see them shop Beltran. Unfortunately, the asking price would be slightly higher than Howry. I truly hope you don't think I was serious.

Sounds good. What about Howry for Beltran? instead of or in addition to? Good question. If you can get them both, you take them, and spin Beltran back to the Mets for Reyes.

Sounds good. What about Howry for Beltran?

It's the declining walk rate. Once he regains his patience, his numbers will increase significantly.

Much as I want all Cubs players to do well, I thought Samardjzia benefited from his newness. The Marlins probably don't have a great scouting report on him just yet and so I suspect they didn't fully know what to expect. The hitters might not have even been prepped. His control was decent, but not great and a more patient team would do much better. His fastball looked very lively, if a bit out of control, and he might need to dial it back to win that control.

Yes, it was. Very interesting. Thanks, TT.

I'm surprised the Dragons players didn't kill him. He probably deserved it. Looked like someone was trying to Looked like the whole team was on him...

Cubs win!!

Marmol fields the grounder and gets the lead runner -- Amezega beats the DP throw. 2 outs.

I like the roster a lot.

Lefty. Psht.

Hahaha... that was so predicatable. Way to go Aramis!

Drop. It.

How good is PitchFX at splitter recognition?

Wow. Got home from work, turned on the game... and Len was talking about this deal. Good deal by Hendry. I'm very sad to see Gallagher go -- and Mr. Gallagher, I hope you'll keep us up-to-date on Sean's doings -- because I think he's going to be a very good pitcher. I wish him every success in Oakland. I'm also happy for Murton and Patterson. I hope they to get an opportunity to play, which wasn't going to happen with the Cubs. Still, that said, I'm excited to see Harden in Cubs uniform and I hope he helps win the WS!!

I won't. This kid's team is National League only. I have to limit myself so I don't slaughter you all.

Go Rich! And, yes, Bukie is absolutely correct. Just win games and get into the playoffs. It doesn't matter whether you get in by winning the division, the wildcard, or even a playoff to be the wildcard or division champs. Once you're in, anything can happen.

Budhouse, alas for our entertainment, will not be re-visiting this thread.

How Ruud.

Link Read between the lines and it's clear Riccardi was onto something. Adam Dunn does not care about baseball. He also hates Canada. That's genius. Especially this part: In fact I love it so much I'm gonna sig it. Thanks for reading between the lines for me! Using that quote fragment is so misleading it's funny.