brinoch

I haven't had time to even begin my research due to work issues this weekend. Don't hold up the deadline, though, on my account. I'm not asking for an extension because I think work will continue to be hectic for a while (until August). That would devalue the contest, methinks. :)

It worked in the Wizard of Oz...

Yes, Bruce is definitely a member; he's also the best Cubs beat reporter, in my opinion. His chats have been great -- and he posts when he has time. I'd say he needs to post more often, but then there would be fewer articles and less research.

I'd be curious to see if Mike Kiley, or his source, lurks on this board. A lot of those ideas have been floating around here for a good while. Nice to see, regardless, that there is some ink to them now.

Yeah, but it seems like he's pitching well in general. If you have a below .500 record with an ERA under 3.00, then your team isn't scoring runs for you. Let's get 'em again tonight. I second that.

And that's exactly what you would expect him to say to keep the fan base interested. Also, Lawton isn't your typical salary dump. He's a FA after this season, so once Pit decides they are out of it, it would be wise to sell him to the highest bidder. Yep. That's smart GMing, not salary dumping.

Great news.

I'll sit out to let Roast take a chance in the challenge. It was fun last year, but it's not that big of a deal.

They get some one who can actually play CF well. He's always been a highly-rated player with pop and speed, so I'm sure that if the Yankees believe they could turn him around, they'd jump at the opportunity. Remember, being a left handed hitter at Yankee Stadium is a plus, since RH hitters typically have their power numbers suffer there. Yes, that's fine, I recognize the upgrade for CF and the short porch, but who covers RF if they deal Sheffield? Ruben Sierra? With the injury to Matsui they are playing Womack in LF!!! Womack!! In this deal, Patterson essentially replaces Sheffield in that OF, and that's just not a good deal for the Yankees.

Vance, I don't see the market for Corey to net us a stud corner OF. Corey's starting to get expensive -- so who's going to want him? The Reds won't, Tampa won't, the A's won't -- none the small market teams. Perhaps the Yankees. I could see a deal to get us Kotsay where we turn around and deal Patterson in a package for Sheffield. But why is that a good deal for the Yankees?

I'm not trying to put you down, but you won't find many people here who pay attention to pitchers' W-L records, especially not ones that date back to the 1980's. You're right about folks here not valuing W/L, but nolanwood DOES make a good point about the relative value in the contracts the Cubs are paying Prior and Z. If those numbers were redistributed, I don't think anyone would have a problem. W/L record for a pitcher is an arbitrary, team statistic. A pitcher cannot control what his offense does.

I'd be interested.

I agree with JC and goony. If Koronka/Williams/Mitre are giving the Cubs a chance to win games, that's sufficient. I think it's likely that they will continue to do that, so I'd look to get a bat.

Every time I see Cubway's name, I feel compelled to try to order a 6 inch meatball with cheese, onions and green peppers on wheat. Yeah, it's always good to stay healthy by ordering that wheat bread. Do you get a diet coke with your Big Macs? I have never eaten a Big Mac. True story. Neither have I. I admit that I once ordered a Big Mac when they had the Indiana Jones promotion. I threw the sandwich away, though. I just wanted the movie and the fries.

This is an excellent, forward-thinking quote. I already had a high opinion of Dierker; it's only grown higher since reading his columns.

Modzilla is Modzilla. No one messes with Modzilla. He only comes out when there is egregious trolling, spamming or when overwhelmed by a desire to rampage in a random city. Modzilla sightings are rare, and some dispute that Modzilla even exists. But I've seen the swath of devastation the passage of Modzilla leaves; I'm a believer.

Tim and Modzilla.

I don't know. But I commented on that irritant to my wife and turned the TV off at that point because I was becoming needlessly frustrated with something I cannot change no matter how passionately or persuasively I write or speak. Hakuna Matata. Or something.

In my current state of mind regarding the Cubs, I really think he is trying to lose. I've been disappointed in the past. But never so early. Not even when they went 0-11.

Yeah...let's have the guy with 1 rbi batting in that situation. :roll: They could have given Dubois six strikes in his at bat against Wagner and he still would have struck out. OVERMATCHED. True, but let's be honest, Wagner overmatches most of the MLB. Let's not criticize Hairston and Dubois (or anyone else) when they don't succeed against Billy. Wagner against Dubois was a lot like Prior against Utley. With a little experience, I think either hitter will have a much better chance of success.

Fair enough on BP; they are condescending. I can't argue with that at all. I don't disagree with anything you said here, in fact, I've said similar thoughts. I don't think PAP is the end-all, be-all of pitching predictors; it's a tool. However, I would add one thought: mechanics *are* the most important factor in injuries, but what is often lost is that as the pitch count increases, the pitcher gets tired and his mechanics break-down -- and an injury is much more likely to occur. PAP is trying to model this mechanical breakdown and correlate it to the injury risk -- obviously not as well as we'd like, though. What is really needed is a pitcher by pitcher evaluation of mechanics, endurance and breakdown risk. And that would be extremely difficult. Still, I would expect a pitching coach to do this for each pitcher on his team.

Leicester did last year, as did Wuertz at the end of the year.

BP is really obnoxious. They act like they know everything and like what they say is gospel. In that article they basically say that Livan Hernandez will either get hurt or be ineffective the rest of his career because of the abuse he's taken from his managers. So where's the mea culpa from them, now that Hernandez has posted his best ERA+'s in back to back seasons? Of course, it's nowhere, because they'll never admit that they were wrong. This is going to come off poorly, probably, but just like BP, you are acting as if you know everything about pitching injuries right now. I don't particularly have a problem with it, given that I act more or less the same way most of the time, too. But, you don't know everything (neither do I). Like it or not, pitchers get injured, and many of those injuries are directly related to overuse. Sometimes it comes from High School coaches or college coaches, or even the minors. But the act of pitching itself is unnatural and it hurts the arm. We also know that more strain is placed on the arm when pitching mechanics get out of whack. And the more tired a pitcher gets, the more likely his mechanics will falter. Therefore, when a pitcher gets tired, he becomes more susceptible to injury. You may not like BP, and you may disagree with them, but that doesn't mean that PAP and pitching counts are something to pay attention to. Ignoring the effects would be foolish and short-sighted. And there will be exceptions. Some guys will never get injured no matter how many pitches are thrown. Others will get injured early and often. Coming off elbow surgery as he was, it's a miracle that Alou didn't destroy Schmidt's arm. I'm not an idiot, Truffle. So please don't act like I don't know what I'm talking about -- I don't need your so-called tip to discuss or acknowledge that Maddux and Clemens are incredible pitchers who have been extremely durable. I grant that Maddux and Clemens have defied the "injury" odds, but look at all the guys who do have had TJS or rotator cuff injuries. Guys like Eric Gagne, AJ Burnett, Kerry Wood, John Leiber, Mariano Rivera, and Bill Wagner all had it. For every Roger Clemens or Greg Maddux, I can point out a John Smoltz or a David Wells who really hurt their arm. Look at all the guys in the minors who blow out their arms each and every year. Certainly, there will be guys -- like Livan Hernandez (who I mentioned) -- who are just durable as heck and can pitch seemingly forever. But other guys, like AJ Burnett, quickly blow out their elbow when overused. I've never much cared for PECOTA or BP's injury predictions myself, but at least they are looking to learn and protect pitchers -- in their own roundabout fashion. For someone who predicts the weather based on variable conditions and factors, Truffle, you seem resistant to making predictions or conclusions about pitching injuries based on other variable factors including -- but not limited to -- PAP.

Truffle, you might very well be right about Schmidt. That's my perception without the necessary support. However, as to Baker pitching arms into the ground, there are many opinions supporting that supposition. In 2000, BP named Baker as the most abusive manager in baseball. In 2003, the Cubs lead the league in PAP. Look at the numbers for Prior, Zambrano and Wood, it's sickening. I believe that the struggles Wood and Prior had in 2004 are largely in part to their overusage. In 2004, the Cubs were 3rd in PAP. Take a look at Zambrano and Wood; Prior doesn't get the abuse because they really took care not to abuse him. How long before Zambrano's elbow goes boom? With this usage pattern, unless he's Livan Hernandez, it'll probably happen. Were the 2004 problems with Wood and Prior related to the 2003 overuse? I believe so. Tim did an excellent study, which I know you've seen, about Wood coming off starts with more than 120 pitches and how poorly he does.

So does Jason Schmidt.