Neuby

Vance, don't the Cubs have to wait a few weeks before Hendry can begin negotiating for Giles? I thought there is a 2 week window after the WS where current teams have exclusive negotiation rights to their own FAs. :? Right. 14 days after the W.S. As soon as that window opens, though, I'd have my offer ready and pick up the phone. Would you start at 4/50? I wouldn't. I'd be willing to go there no problem, but I wouldn't start there. I would, only because it lets him know we are dead serious about signing him. I think best case scenario is Furcal and Shuerholtz strike a deal in the 14 day period-triggering a trade of Marcus Giles(5) to the Cubs for Walker(2.5)+R.Hill-Wuertz. Marcus in the fold gives us a LEGITIMATE shot at Brian Giles-Sign Giles to whatever he wants-(4/40) Trade JWilliams+Cpatt(2.5)+Mitre for Pierre(5) and Mota(3)- Re-sign Nomar(5M) to play SS- sign AJ Burnett-4/40(9,10,10,11) Go to War with that- CF-Pierre(5) 2B-M.Giles(5) 1B-Lee(9) RF-Giles(10) 3B-Aram(10) SS-Nomar(5) C-Barrett(4) LF-Murton(.3) (48.3M) Prior(4) Z(6) Maddux(9) Burnett(9) Wood(10) (38M) Mota(3)-Dempster(5)-Rusch(2.5)-Ohman(.4)-Williamson(2)-Novoa+JVB (12.9M) Hairston(2)-Blanco(1.5)-Cedeno(.3)-Greenburg(.3)-Branyon(1.5)=5.3M 104M team-and WOW- I am willing to bet the Cubs are gonna have a payroll closer to 110-115 this year . I think you overspent on Nomar I am thinking his base will be closer to a 4 million. Drop Pierre and Mota spend the money on Dotel instead and Lofton to keep center field warm . I am assuming you give Lofton a starting job and the chance to play for in Chicago and Baker again you can get him 1.5 million. Leave Greenberg in the minors for awhile longer and spend some more of that money on another strong right handed power hitter like Sanez.

Not good enough. Need one more quality late inning reliever here, IMO, even with Dotel on board. With all our money this year, no reason not to add Howry or Eyre to your list, and subtract Novoa (who I think is trade bait anyways). No reason not to whatty what? Novoa has major league stuff (a big heavy fastball that comfortably hits the mid-nineties and a hard late breaking slider), and as such his excellent K (9.5 K/9) and HR (0.8 HR/9) numbers in his first year with the Cubs are hardly a surprise. Furthermore, the control problems that plagued him in 2005 (5.0 BB/9) were somewhat out of character based upon his entire minor league career, where at no stage did he ever walk more than 3.2 per 9 innings, although those numbers were primarily put up as a starter. He also suffered a .333 average on balls in play against in 2005, so it would hardly come as a surprise if that dropped in years to come. All in all, I feel pretty safe in suggesting that Novoa is not very far from becoming a very fine reliever, though it somewhat pains me to say that given I detested the Farnsworth trade. If Novoa's the fifth best reliever in our bullpen, we have absolutely no problems in the bullpen department whatsoever. Oh, and Novoa will next year earn league minimum. Bob Howry isn't a bad pitcher. But demand for his services this winter is going to be out of all proportion with his actual abilities as a reliever. The guy has two very good fastballs, a four-seamer that he hits the mid-nineties with and a two-seamer, and now he controls both of them extremely well, but beyond that he doesn't really have anything, and that's a significant problem. It meant that in 2005 he only managed to record 48 strikeouts in 73 innings, and so the reason that he allowed just 49 hits was not because Howry was restricting balls in play, but because hardly any of the many balls in play turned into hits: hitters hit just .215 on balls in play off him. .217, .296, .253, .312, .274, (2003), .267, .215 Those are what hitters have hit off Howry from year-to-year. See a pattern? No, I didn't think so. That's because from year-to-year, with the sample sizes so small, the numbers jump around, up and down, and that's why buying on a reliever after he's had an out of line good year really isn't that great an idea: his next year's perhaps more likely than ever to be the regression to the mean bad year. All in all, for his career, hitters have hit .268 on balls in play off Howry, or the equivalent of 11 extra hits on top of Howry's 49 in 2005. Prior to 2005, hitters had hit .278 on balls in play off Howry, equivalent to another 2 hits on top of the 60. And Howry's home run rate in 2005 was comfortably his best ever, at the age of 31? Something tells me that's headed upwards too, especially if you move him from Jacobs Field to Wrigley. Tag on a couple more homers as well then. All of a sudden, you're talking Howry being about 15 hits of which say 3 homers lucky this year. You've got to believe that that made a huge contribution to his ERA, not to mention keeping inherited runners from scoring. Good for the 2004 Indians. Not necessarily any good at all for whoever then goes and slurges a sizeable investment on him. Scott Eyre? Are you frigging kidding me? He has completely average stuff (bleh fastball, plus-ish slider), and his numbers through the age of 32 were absolutely atrocious, never once featuring a strikeout rate of anywhere close to one an inning, a walk rate much less than one every other inning, only once featuring a balls in play against of less than .270 (and that was in 2004). Are you trying to tell me that one decent/flukish year in a pitcher's paradise in the worst division in baseball changes at the age of 33 changes that to the extent that you'd throw money at him and move a talented young pitcher like Roberto Novoa to make room for him? Please don't get the impression that I'm opposed to the Cubs spending money: I want them to have a payroll in excess of $105m next year. There are just far far better ways off getting to that figure than depositing it in the bank accounts of one-year relief flukes, particularly if we have better in house options, and that's what the situation with Howry/Eyre/Novoa represents. What other names did Neuby throw out there? Sauerbeck? He throws nothing but junk, I'll take my chances with a proper pitcher. Gordon? Great arm, but extremely old and criminally overworked in these last few seasons, almost guaranteed to break down soon. Mota? We'd have to trade players to get him, he's expensive, and he's coming off a terrible season. Definately worth a shot then if the Marlins are giving him away and selling low on a quality arm. Basically, I'm not seeing anyone out there that's worth the money/years given their age and ability all relative to what we already have, besides BJ Ryan that is, with Guillermo Mota an idea worth exploring. The problem going into next season counting on Dotel and Williamson heavily is that they will have the Cubs medical team. I love both if healthy high reward , low risk. But counting on them to BOTH remain effective and healthy is too much risk. Thats why I advocate getting another proven arm Seanz would be a cheap option, Howry gets peolpe even if it's just with fastballs he still gets them out. Might come at a discount to return to Chicago. I still think Nova or Wuertz is dealt in a package for a big bat.

Had the Cubs had Giles in RF instead of Burnitz, we would have been 5th in OBP instead of 13th. That alone speaks of his value. The window is closing. I don't think we have the luxury of passing on the only impact OF because of his age. We can be fiscally responsible in fourth place or we can overpay for the player than immediately improves the line-up. I choose the later. Manny

I'm waiting for the word from Hendry or Glendon on what kind of role he was promised. For 3 million he won't be a bad second lefty out of the pen that provides insurance in the rotation and long relief.

Not sure what the def of a groundbreaking player is but Furcal is 27 , switch hitter, a 15 homer , 40 steal guy, with some of the best range at short in the majors to go with a cannon arm at short. I'm not sure if Cedeno's ceiling is anywhere near that high.

How many more years can Manny keep hitting like this? How old is he I can't remember? He'll turn 34 in May , Giles will be 35 in Jan. Doesn't Giles have a suspect shoulder? Hairston/Lofton Walker M.Ramirez Lee Aram Nomar Murton Barrett Me like.

did I mention Manny hit 417 in the world Series? If Dusty is the manager he is supposed to deal with guys like Manny. I would have put up with all of Sosa's antics had he kept producing like Manny. Manny is a once in a generation type player.

Could Murton handle center? If we were able to land two huge bats for right field and left field. One bat being Giles.

so all we know so far for sure is that there's another postive test for steroids and the player appealed ?

I've heard reports the Mets would be players for his services at short or trying to get him to shift to second

They can have there pick of anyone in the system except Pie for Ramirez. If the Red Sox are picking up a chunk of cash say 15 million over the remainder of the deal, maybe we can talk about Pie. I really only see Hendry getting involved in a Manny deal is if we go out and get someone to send to Boston.

Any chance Hendry will make a run at him for the bench this offseason he's a free agent who led the NL in pinch hits last years with 20 (3 HR) , with him and Russell Bryanan on the bench the Cubs would some better options than Macias and Perez.

looks like that manger job is going to Orel not Dusty , unless they give the Gm job to Orel?

I really hope Hendry has more plans for this offseason than just Furcal . I hope he takes a gamble on Dotel , and makes a strong push for another starter like Millwood or Burnett. Is it too much to dream for Manny?

when are we gonna get results? If it is Dye it will make my weekend.

Sheffield, Finley,Ramirez those are my bets in that order.

http://kmbumb.people.wm.edu/roster/06agency.html according to that site he is and I've seen his name tossed around here a bit.

I think with the money the Cubs have to spend they can add another arm to that group be it Sauerbeck, Erye, Howry, Gordon, Mota, Frod ect. Wuertz, Nova, JVB, Welly, Guzman,Lecister, along with Williams depending on how the rotation shakes out the Cubs could have a pretty deep pen if they choose to spend money.

I have no problem going after Dotel but I would rather count on him in May or June and go get a guy like Ryan, Gordon, FROD, Mota, ect and have Dotel waiting in the wings. I still see Dotel getting a deal like Dempster got off a surgery. With the money the Cubs have to spend they can afford to sign a big time set up man and have Dotel as the insurance policy.

Have we seen anywhere that Hendry has given or named Dempster the closer guy? Dempster seems like a very team first guy. Now that he's healthy with his first long term deal I don't forsee him complaining if a guy like Wagner got the closer spot. I've also read where BJ Ryan isn't against setting up for the right team in the right situation. Everday Eddie is another guy that might be willing to set up.

Assuming this trade happens. The Cubs still have 18 million available. Use 9 of that to sign Furcal to a 4/36 million deal. Finally trade Cedeno and Mitre (who is out of options) to the Nationals for Guillen. Here's my line-up: SS Furcal 2b Castillo 1b Lee 3b Ramirez CF Bradley RF Guillen LF Murton C Barrett That's a pretty formidible line-up with a nice mixture of OBP, power and speed. It ought to be pretty good defensively as well. The rotation shapes out to be: 1. Zambrano 2. Prior 3. Wood 4. Maddux 5. Lowe There's some innings eaters there and Jerome Williams is around for depth or trade bait. The bullpen is a little trickier Dempster is the closer, and I'd pencil in Ohman, Wuertz, Hill and Novoa. You could fill the last spot with Williams or look to JVB or Wellemeyer. Personally, I'd use some of my last available cash to sign Dotel as a set-up man. After giving up Cedeno in a trade, the bench will need some work. I'd keep Hairston around for bench duty and try to bring in an OF like Grieve. I'd use Greenberg there as well. Blanco handles the catching duties on the bench and I'd look to get Branyan or Sweeney if possible. Theriot or Fontenot might be useful on the bench and I'd likely give Sing a look as well in spring training. Isn't having Bradley, Furcal, Castillo a little bit of over kill? Its like having three leadoff hitters. I would go the cheaper route and take a shot again with Nomar at short on the cheap. Use the left over cash on the bullpen and bench. Dotel should be a project but I wouldn't rely on him right off the bat , they should pursue a big time set up man.

Assuming this trade happens. The Cubs still have 18 million available. Use 9 of that to sign Furcal to a 4/36 million deal. Finally trade Cedeno and Mitre (who is out of options) to the Nationals for Guillen. Here's my line-up: SS Furcal 2b Castillo 1b Lee 3b Ramirez CF Bradley RF Guillen LF Murton C Barrett That's a pretty formidible line-up with a nice mixture of OBP, power and speed. It ought to be pretty good defensively as well. The rotation shapes out to be: 1. Zambrano 2. Prior 3. Wood 4. Maddux 5. Lowe There's some innings eaters there and Jerome Williams is around for depth or trade bait. The bullpen is a little trickier Dempster is the closer, and I'd pencil in Ohman, Wuertz, Hill and Novoa. You could fill the last spot with Williams or look to JVB or Wellemeyer. Personally, I'd use some of my last available cash to sign Dotel as a set-up man. After giving up Cedeno in a trade, the bench will need some work. I'd keep Hairston around for bench duty and try to bring in an OF like Grieve. I'd use Greenberg there as well. Blanco handles the catching duties on the bench and I'd look to get Branyan or Sweeney if possible. Theriot or Fontenot might be useful on the bench and I'd likely give Sing a look as well in spring training. Isn't having Bradley, Furcal, Castillo a little bit of over kill? Its like having three leadoff hitters. I would go the cheaper route and take a shot again with Nomar at short on the cheap. Use the left over cash on the bullpen and bench. Dotel should be a project but I wouldn't rely on it.

Astros 6

I think Dotel will get a deal a lot like Dempsters got coming off of surgery but more money up front. I say gamble on him. Dempster Dotel Howry Williamson Nova, Wuertz, Welly, Ohman I'd say you bring Dotel along slowly letting Wuertz and Nova take the ball till Dotel is fully rehabbed and ready for the bigs. I doubt Hendry would dump that much money into both Dotel and Howry. Letting Williams,Hill, and Guzman battle for the fifth spot help keep the Cubs in Budget.

Has anyone done something yet? Is Macias a free agent or a possible non-tender? Yes. Anyone has done something yet. Several managers have been cut loose, coaches have been fired, GM's have been let go...... Nomar has suggested he'd love to be back in Chicago and would be open to playing whereever they want him. However, management doesn't seem interested in retaining his services. The offseason for the Cubs basically started September 1st, and Jose Macias and Neifi Perez batted 1/2 while Cedeno sat. We have so little info on Cedeno, we won't know if he could be an everyday starter or a AAAA player. I could go on and on. It is my opinion, but I don't like the vibe coming out of Chicago. Getting back to another post you recently made in this tread.... Would you like Burnitz as a 4th outfielder if you know Murton is one of the starters? Isn't that Hollandsworth/Dubois all over again? Except Murton is better. Dubois is DH filler for low budget team at best.