Jason Ross

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images When the Chicago Cubs signed Shota Imanaga two offseasons ago, the contract they agreed upon was anything but a simple five-year pact. Instead, it was a convoluted mix of team and player options, as both sides would have agency on deciding how long the contract would truly be. Finally, on Nov. 4, both sides declined their respective options, leaving Imanaga a free agent and the team a pitcher short in their rotation. If your initial reaction was of shock and confusion, that's fair. It would have been inconceivable a few months ago that the two sides would have gotten to this point and yet, here we are. There's still a chance that the Cubs will extend the qualifying offer to Imanaga and that he will accept, foregoing free agency and sticking around on a one-year, $22 million contract, but as our own Matt Trueblood reported the other day, that would seem unlikely. Ultimately, even though Imanaga was a fresh of breath air as a human, the Cubs making this choice is likely one with reason and with a plan for the future. From the Cubs' perspective, the choice was either to pick up the remaining three years and $57 million or to decline their end of this deal (thus allowing Imanaga to choose free agency). Looking at recent free agents who signed contracts in the ballpark of 3/$50m (or so) gives us an idea of what type of a pitcher gets these kinds of contracts; Yusei Kikuchi (3/$63m), Luis Severino (3/$67m), and Seth Lugo (3/$47.5m) are likely our three closest proxies over the last two years. There are a few players, such as Nathan Eovaldi, who got three years as well, but at $75m total, it's probably fair to say his contract is a little too rich compared to the others. Looking at these four starters and seeing where Imanaga stacks up gives you a decent picture as to why the Cubs may have chosen to not pick up his option. By highlighting the season each pitcher had prior to signing their contract, we can see that Imanaga performed below most of the others in almost every category (though it is fair to point out that part of the reason why his fWAR is so low compare to others is because of his 2025 injury). His FIP and xFIP are both significantly worse than the other three, which does not bode well for the future. The only other pitcher on this list who had expected data in the 4.00 range was Severino, and part of his contract was likely a premium paid to get him to accept going to play for the Sacramento Athletics. What this means is that if Imanaga were a free agent alongside those guys, he would probably have gotten less than a 3/$52m deal in the open market. That doesn't exactly mean he's toast, but he probably didn't pitch well enough in 2025 to be a slam-dunk at that price point. You could probably make an argument that with a few mechanical tweaks you could get him closer to the guy he was in 2024, but I'm not sure he's a pitcher who's really any better than a good third option in a contending teams' rotation. Another point of emphasis for the Cubs is that to improve from a 92-win team in 2025, it will not be easy. The team appears content with losing Kyle Tucker from right field, but beyond Tucker, there aren't a lot of obvious places to get better. Most of their roster is fairly entrenched with above-average starting players, but a lack of true star power. Even in the rotation, the Cubs have Rookie of the Year finalist Cade Horton, 2025 All-Star Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon and Justin Steele who will all be back in 2026. By allowing Imanaga to leave via free agency, they create an opening that they may be able to fill with someone who offers bigger upside. The good news is that the offseason is going to offer a lot of options for the Cubs to take a leap pitching-wise. Free agents such as Dylan Cease (of whom the Cubs have already been linked with), Michael King, Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez will all be able to be signed by any team. It's possible that Japanese pitcher Tatsuya Imai will be posted, and could add another high-ceiling pitcher into the mix. And we can't forget that the trade market will likely see names such as Joe Ryan, Edward Cabrera, Sandy Alcantara and MacKenzie Gore pop up from time to time as possibilities. It's not fun to see Imanaga leave, but this will allow the Cubs many opportunities to get better. If you're worried about the Cubs spending the amount of money or prospects it would take to acquire one of these names, I do think the Cubs will make at least one splashy move this offseason. Remember, the team dipped into the prospect pool for Kyle Tucker already (which would allow you to think they could be players in the trade market) and they did sign shortstop Dansby Swanson to a $177 million deal a few offseasons ago. With Tucker likely netting the team a compensation pick, they will likely be fine with bidding on even the best players in the pool. In addition, it's pitchers, not hitters, who seem to be aging better (even with the threat of Tommy John always looming). Six pitchers aged 35 or older posted 3+ fWAR seasons in 2025 compared to just two hitters of the same age. The Cubs' may not have the same reservations in signing a pitcher to a long-term contract as they do with hitters. Beyond just past behavior, the Cubs should have plenty of money to throw around. FanGraphs' Roster Resource currently has the Cubs at a projected Opening Day salary of $148m, and they ended last season with an estimated payroll of $206m. Even if we ignore late free agency attempts last offseason to sign Tanner Scott or Alex Bregman (which showed a willingness to increase that number), they are almost $80m shy of last year's (admittedly poor) total. Add in the context of coming off a 92-win season, Jed Hoyer's previous comments about creating a consistent team who wins 90 games, and the extra playoff revenue, it's likely that the Cubs will spend most of that money. Spending it entirely on one-year deals and the bench is impossible. They could easily sign two starters for $45 million combined and still have $40 million left over to address the bench and bullpen. This money will certainly play into that. Ultimately, I think the Cubs' decision to not pick up Imanaga's option makes perfect sense. He might not even get a three-year, $57 million contract on the open market, and by allowing his spot to open up, the Cubs will give themselves opportunities to improve on what Imanaga is likely to provide in the future. I'll miss the Mike Imanaga II jokes, his pithy comments, and his umpire stare-downs, but in a business world, this is a business decision. And I think at the end of the day, the Cubs will go into 2026 with a better roster because of it. What do you think of the decision to let Imanaga walk? Do you think this was a good idea, or a bad one? What other pitchers would you like the Cubs to target? Let us know in the comment section below! View full article

Bertz pointed it out the other day, but Shota has performed worst than pitchers who got contracts similar to the years and $$ remaining on his option. The Cubs now have $80m to spend to just get back to the $206m payroll they finished with in 2025. They also attempted to spend more than that with going after Bregman and Scott, suggesting that wasn't their top line. If they add $20m to that, the Cubs could spend $100m this offseason. But they also don't have a lot of clear cut spots that need upgraded. This opens a clear spot at SP to spend, and lots of money. I like Shota but he's probably a good mid-rotation arm. There are plenty of upper end arms the Cubs could replace him with. I know many people have created a narrative that the Cubs won't spend because of the lockout, but I just don't think that's going to be the case. I think the Cubs have given themselves an opportunity to get better with this.

Assuming Pete Crow-Armstrong can't repeat a 109 wRC+ is a "horrible" assumption? Based on...what, exactly? His wOBA was .10 points under his xWOBA and he made better swing choices in the 2nd half of the season (the issue was mechanical). Sure, I don't expect him to be an MVP candidate for 2 months, but getting to a 109 wRC+ is...super doable. He's always going to be a streaky hitter, but please, there is no data-driven argument that he can't repeat a similar overall line. There are different ways to skin a cat, so if the argument is "he had a really good 2 months" he can find a different way to get to the same value and there's nothing really in his data that says he cannot. The Cubs finished with the 5th most runs scored as well. What would be a "good" offense? We're jumping the shark if the Cubs offense wasn't good last year. Even when they weren't hitting well, their dRC+ was very good (expected data, and competition level factored into wRC+). I don't expect a top-5 offense losing Tucker. I do think they'll probably be a bit better than people expect them to be offensively in 2026 without a massive addition.

The Cubs have nearly $80m to spend this offseason just to get back to last year which was well below the LT. They can easily spend $25m on Imai/Cease, $20m on another SP and still have $35m to upgrade the bench and RP's. If they are willing to approach the LT or even slightly over (optimistic I know) then they have even more. They have proven time and time again they can build a BP on a shoestring budget. They're going to be fine. Even without Shota. Yes, they probably can't buy two SP's and a big bat, but there isn't a bat I'd spend on, to be honest if we're eliminating ourselves from the Tucker competition. They had the 9th best dRC+ in the 2nd half and had some bad luck. I think they can create a great pitching team and hit well enough that if they don't get a big time bat they will be alright.

Well, to be fair, they still have the option of the QO. I was on the record of saying it was an easy pickup a few weeks ago, but Bertz did a good job of showing the level of pitcher who got the kind of money Shota's option would have put him on...and he probably fell short of that level. The Cubs rotation isn't entirely barren right now either. Horton, Boyd, and Taillon are all under contract, Steele will get tendered and be back by May 1st if not sooner. Really, they have four guys even sans Shota if he does leave and there is no QO offered. The market has a decent amount of SP's. It may change the math that the Cubs grab 2 SP's instead of one, but they have a ton of money to spend to even get back to the disappointing 2025 levels. So I think they'll ultimately be fine.

Woaaaah. I figured he'd pick that up.

I agree neither are better than Shaw, though to be fair that wasn't the original statement either. It's more that I've seen Murakami is at least viewed as as current MLB 3b by a handful of reports I've seen. Defensively it's hard to compare NPB defense and MLB defense. And to be fair to Suzuki while he isn't an MLB plus plus defender he's better than the eye test suggests; he just makes a bad play here or there that really stands out. He's been about an average type of a corner defender racking up slightly negative OAA or DRS (the bar for average corner play is low). So I'm not sure the GG thing has much to do with it. Voters routinely pick the wrong players there, even at the MLB level. I do agree Murakami isn't much of a fit. And as stated I'm a big no thanks on him.

His defense may be better than some people give credit for and I've heard that he's more likely to play 3b than the other big NPB bat coming over Okamoto. It's hard to defensively scout NPB guys, so I'll just say that I don't think either will be plus defenders. That said, a 50% whiff rate on breaking balls from the NPB is insanely worrisome. And that would be my major concern.

He will get far less than that. Those are likely poor reports based on previous play. He is looking at something closer to the $18-$20m range annually.

A big "no thanks". He swung and missed at nearly 50% of all breaking balls last season. His K% has been horrible for a while. And we can assume that against better and better breaking balls, it isn't going to be any easier. There's probably a player in there somewhere, but it likely requires a pretty strong overhaul and a plan to get him to hit the breaking ball, but with the contract necessary to secure him, I wouldn't want the Cubs to be the team to find out.

Tucker. Is. Not. A. Boras. Client. This has been a consistent misunderstanding and has been explained like 100 times. I don't disagree that the Cubs won't spend on Tucker, but Boras is not his agent. He's also never been his agent.

It's likely still a promotion in title and pay. It could be a placement less about level and more *who* is at that level as well. "We want you to work with this prospect specifically" type stuff

Rachel Folden will be leaving the Cubs MiLB coaching ranks and joining the Mets organization. She was a big part of some notable swing changes, namely PCA originally helping him with his launch angle.

I probably would not have paid what Cleveland would have wanted for Bieber. I think that might have been the most expensive player moved. With the TJS and the fact that you were only getting a few guaranteed starts, it was a no go from me. I do think the Cubs left themselves short at the deadline, though. So while I don't think Shane Bieber on a few starts and then free agency was the right player to target, I do think the Cubs missed an opportunity to be better.

Yeah, I think you two kind of nailed on what I think (and have thought about) Assad. I don't think he's a bad player, and he's made himself into a useful MLB'er. I hope the Cubs enter 2026 with a better 5th SP than Javier. I also think they have some higher upside guys who I'd like to see get looks in the event of an injury.

2.454 miles.

Bieber was traded for a prospect who was ranked #79 on Eric Logenhagen's top-100. So that's not true. It's true that he wasn't a consensus top-100 prospect. I will also point out that I think Jaxon Wiggins is a better prospect before I made my next statement, but the closest proxy to the pitcher dealt for Beiber in the Cubs system is Wiggins. The Jays didn't get him for free. You can make an argument he went for one of the highest per start prices of any pitcher dealt.

Yeah, I think at the very least, the club wont enter 2026 with the full cadre of "will-they-wont-they" SP depth they have currently (Brown, Assad, Wicks). Assad feels like someone another team would like; especially if the Cubs pick up Rea's option. I thought they might trade him last offseason, as well. As an MLB team you could do a lot worse than Javier Assad as your 5th best SP.

Image courtesy of © Melissa Tamez-Imagn Images SP, Javier Assad Age on Opening Day: 28 2023 Salary: League Minimum 2024 Salary: League Minimum 2025 Salary: League Minimum 2026 Salary Projection: $1,900,000 Background: Javier Assad was signed out of Mexico as an international free agent back in 2015. Not considered one of the premier players in his class, Assad has worked hard on himself and his craft to become an MLB player and has carved out a role as a swingman with the Chicago Cubs over the last few years. His best numbers seem to come when deployed as a member of the rotation, and over his last 291 innings he has compiled a 3.47 ERA and has been worth 2.3 fWAR. 2025 Season: Javier Assad missed most of the 2025 season with the dreaded oblique strain. The right-hander suffered the injury before Opening Day and then suffered a setback during his rehab time in Iowa. It looked like he may not make it back all season at one point, but he was able to get healthy and help the Cubs down the stretch, with a 3.65 ERA over seven starts. That ERA, however, may have masked some of his results. Assad's strikeout rate has never been his strong suit, hovering around the 20% mark over his career, but in 2025, his K% dropped to 15%. This can also been seen in the disparity between his ERA and his xFIP, as despite the sparkling run prevention, his xFIP did sit at 4.69. Cubs' Depth at SP: MLB: Shota Imanaga (pending contract decisions), Cade Horton, Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon, Colin Rea (pending contract decisions), Justin Steele (pending arbitration) On the 40-man: Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks Triple-A Depth: Jaxon Wiggins, Brandon Birdsell, Will Sanders, Conor Noland Summary: Javier Assad isn't a star, but has proven himself a useful contributor of a MLB organization. His stuff is not overpowering, but through enough groundballs and a kitchen-sink approach, he's shown he's capable of outpacing his advanced metrics. The Cubs will always need pitching depth, and whether or not they enter the 2026 season with plans of Assad in the rotation or the bullpen, he has proven worthy of being a member of either. Why the Chicago Cubs should offer Javier Assad a contract: Pitching depth is valuable, and Javier Assad has the ability to provide depth either in the rotation or the bullpen. It's unquestionable that the Cubs will need to dip into their depth in 2026; last year the Cubs saw Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Cade Horton, and Jameson Taillon hit the IL on the season. Whatever the Cubs' rotation looks like heading into 2026, it's a virtual guarantee that they will need to find people to fill vacancies created by injuries, and Assad would certainly do that. His contract should be around the $2 million range in his first year of arbitration, which would be financially viable as either a starting pitcher or a reliever. Why the Chicago Cubs should not offer Javier Assad a contract: Assad isn't a dominating pitcher, and his drop-off in strikeouts is a bit concerning. The velocity didn't fall, so you hope that a bit of rust is the cause, but he would struggle to find success if he can only strike out 15% of hitters in 2026. One of the biggest things to monitor is how much longer he's able to walk the tightrope of ERA and xFIP splits. He has some aspects of being an "xFIP-beater"—he has a varied arsenal and has groundball tendencies—but he's not elite at the latter, and he doesn't induce a lot of chase. It's fair to wonder if he's going to be able to continue to significantly outperform his expected data. Prediction: The Cubs tender a contract and settle on a one-year deal in the $2 million area before the arbitration deadline. The Cubs will need pitching depth, and while I think they will enter the 2026 offseason focusing on adding pitching as a priority, even if the crafty right-hander isn't in their rotation Opening Day, barring health, he's going to make starts. While I think we would be remiss if we didn't mention his waning strikeout rates and the ERA/xFIP differences, it's all theoretical for now, and it isn't like other pitchers haven't out-pitched their xFIP for years. And at the price tag he's going to command, it's unlikely that, even if the worst-case materializes, Assad is going to sink this club. What do you think? Unlike with Justin Steele, I do think there's a narrow argument you can make to non-tender Assad if you're that concerned with his xFIP. I don't necessarily agree with it, but I think you could make it. Do you think the Cubs will tender Assad? Should they tender Assad? Let me know what you think! View full article

Totally agree. I'm all aboard making sure Steele is back. I do think the expectations should be a little lowered as he comes back; he might not be the ace right away. That said at a price point he's at? Man I can't think of the first reason I wouldn't bring him back.

No one is forcing me, you're right, but it isn't just about fans, it's about players and the like as well. Sometimes these games happen before getaway day - they don't move the time back to accommodate because they can't with travel schedules. And in the playoffs, you have more flexibility with a pitching staff. First, you don't ever play more than 3 games in a row without an offday and you have multiple off days usually leading into a playoff series. While teams are running 12/13 total in their pitching staff, only three are really being tasked with going 3-4+ innings. So even if someone gets rocked, you really weren't expecting him to go 6. When you go 18, though, it's a lot easier to find innings; the Cubs carried Colin Rea, Michael Soroka, and Aaron Civale who could all go 4+. In a regular season game, two of these guys either aren't on the staff or are tabbed as the starters tomorrow or the next day. They also routinely play 6+ games in a row, or these long stretches where they may have a single off day over the course of 15-17 days. You might like it, that's fine. But I think the game is better to not play needless marathons midseason. I don't miss silly 16 inning midyear games at all. And I think they're mostly nostalgia, more than anything. Last night was really cool! But I think they're best left for the playoffs.

Yeah, that where I've come down on it. It feels inherently odd that we are gifting teams runners, but I think between that and a game ending at 12:30pm on a Tuesday night in a stretch of 16 games in 15 days? I'll take the former. I'd totally hate this horsefeathers in the playoffs though. Last night was a great moment.

Image courtesy of © Ed Szczepanski-Imagn Images SP Justin Steele Age on Opening Day 2026: 30 Service Time: 4.1 years 2023 salary: League Minimum 2024 salary: $4,000,000 2025 salary: $6,500,000 2026 projected salary: $6,550,000 Background: Justin Steele was drafted by the Chicago Cubs out of high school way back in 2014. A minor league career that was filled with promise and injuries, the left-handed pitcher wouldn't establish himself as a core part of the Cubs until 2021. By 2022, he became an integral part of the rotation and one of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball. Only 14 starting pitchers in the league accrued more fWAR than Steele between 2022 and 2024, with Blake Snell, Tarik Skubal and Framber Valdez as the only southpaws to pick up more. 2025 Season: The Cubs entered 2025 with high hopes of winning the division and making noise in the playoffs, and Justin Steele was supposed to be the anchor of the rotation. Sadly for the Cubs and for their starting pitcher, things did not go according to plan, as Steele missed, effectively, the entire season with an elbow issue. The positive for both sides is that while it was a partial tear of the UCL, a full Tommy John surgery was not needed and Steele could be back by Opening Day 2026 if things progress well. While there is still a full offseason to go, the lefty has recently just posted video of him getting back into a throwing routine, which can only be a good thing. Cubs Depth at SP: MLB: Shota Imanaga (pending contract decisions), Cade Horton, Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon, Colin Rea (pending contract decisions) On the 40-man: Javier Assad, Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks Triple-A Depth: Jaxon Wiggins, Brandon Birdsell, Will Sanders, Conor Noland Summary: Justin Steele, when healthy, is one of the best left-handed starting pitching options in the league. However, injuries are certainly something he has dealt with over his career. With a TJ surgery already under his belt, a muscle injury in 2024, and now a partial UCL tear, there is some concern in that area moving forward. The Cubs have two key starting pitchers with options—Colin Rea, which is a straight up "yes" or "no" team option, and a confusing set of decisions to be made regarding Shota Imanaga. Regardless of any of those choices, the Cubs will hope that they get the old Justin Steele back in 2026. Why the Cubs should offer Justin Steele a contract: Left-handed pitchers who have been as good as Steele don't just grow on trees. Yes, the injury was a bummer, but we are at a point in time where elbow injuries are not as devastating as they once were, with many pitchers coming back and reverting to their pre-injury forms in a matter of months. Steele didn't even need a full reconstruction of his elbow, making his timeline even quicker. It's unlikely that the Cubs will be able to find a pitcher with higher upside than Steele and his $6.5 million estimated price tag, and at age 30, he isn't at an age where an imminent collapse is likely on the horizon. Why the Cubs shouldn't offer Justin Steele a contract: I can't really find much of a reason as to why they wouldn't. With others, such as Reese McGuire or Eli Morgan, I feel like I could make some sort of devil's advocate argument, but short of his arm just falling off, the price of admission here is pretty tolerable. Steele's medicals would have to be a pure disaster for the Cubs to deem $6.5 million too rich to bring back the lefty. Prediction: The Cubs tender Justin Steele and the two sides settle before arbitration on a contract. This is a no-brainer from both sides. Justin Steele just missed a full season and has something to prove, while the Cubs could potentially lose Shota Imanaga and Colin Rea, and Jameson Taillon has only one year left on his contract. Steele remains controllable past 2026 and has been incredibly effective on the North Side. I'm not sure exactly what to expect from the hurler, but my guess is that even if he doesn't immediately find his groove, he'll get back to being mostly the guy we've known. These types of procedures have gotten better and better, and it's very common to see players come back. Matthew Boyd is a great example of this; he had a full TJ surgery just a few years ago, came back during the tail end of the 2024 season with Cleveland, and then made the All-Star team with the Cubs. What do you think will happen? Obviously, I think the Cubs will bring back Steele, but maybe there's an argument to be made not to? Let me know if you see this in a different light! View full article