Jason Ross

I'd argue the opposite. The Manfred rule has largely eliminated 18 inning games in the regular season. In the playoffs I think last night was epic, and awesome, and everything playoff baseball should be. But there are more off days built in and the stress on pitching staffs isn't as great. I can't speak for everyone, but the last thing I need is a Cubs/Angels game that goes 18 innings in mid-May. They weren't fun. They were long and you were just hoping for them to be over with. I'd hate to see the Manfred rule in the playoffs, but I appreciate it helping end games before it becomes a slog in the regular season.

I mean, Andrew Kittredge was literally the second best RP in baseball beyond the deadline based on xFIP. If you're not seeing it in the results, you're not really looking, then. It's blatantly obvious. If you want to point to playoff production, then you're falling for recency and small sample bias. If we're doing that, then Fernando Tatis Jr, Steven Kwan, Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger, Manny Machado and Bryce Harper all suck too. The problem is we objectively know they don't suck and like 15 PA's doesn't define a player. Just like whatever it is you think you saw in the playoffs from Kittredge isn't some glaring signal either. Again, I'm not trying to say Andrew Kittredge is the second best RP as we head into 2026. But he is likely one of the better right handed options in baseball, is among a very small group of very good RP's in baseball, and any legitimate contending team in 2026 would be happy to have him pitching in high leverage situations.

Correct, but players have good halves and bad halves all the time. That's normal. Pete Crow-Armstrong is a swing heavy player. But here's the thing; his swing decisions got better as the year went on in 2025. The overall data didn't get better - he had a mechanical flaw that caused him to get too out front of the ball. but he started making better swing decisions. Cam Smith...didn't. His swing got worse and his swing decisions remained relatively flat. That's the difference. We didn't see any progress from Smith. That's a big indicator. If it was simply that he was younger than Matt Shaw we would have seen growth with experience, but we saw Shaw fix a mechanical flaw and show a much better second half and we saw Cam Smith do none of that. We'll see what it means beyond now, but I don't think this is as simple as "Well Smith was a year behind him developmentally". I've had an issue with Cam Smith's bat path dating back to draft day. That bat path got worse in 2025.

Realistically, this feels like a "best case scenario" report. There's some positives about his defense, some hope about the bat, but enough holes that make you realize it's not a report that shies away from the polishes.

Fully agree here! I'm entirely in the "just pick up Kittredge" boat. He makes about what the Cubs paid on 1 year deals with Neris and Pressly, and while I don't want to completely trash those two, there were at least some signs with both that could have made you squint as to future issues (obviously we know the outcomes). Kittredge just got better. They need basically an entire back end of the BP right now sans Palencia, and I think Kittredge is a slam dunk.

Only Mason Miller was a better reliever per xFIP in baseball post deadline. His slider hits very real markers for being elite; he throws it over 90mph pretty often (an important decider) and has a +shape on it. He is in the 100th percentile in chase rate while also being in the 90th percentile for K and walk rate - this means he's throwing an elite velo slider as unhittable pitches, and yet getting extreme amounts of swing. He gets great whiff, but even when hitters do make contact, it's a nothing burger usually. The slider had an xwOBA of .207 on the year - 16th in the league. It as 9th in run value. The Cubs also did some tweaks on location of that pitch to suggest that he made a legit jump in the 2nd half. If you don't believe he's the second best reliever in baseball moving forward - me either! That said, I think he's a legitimate back end reliever for 2026 for a contending team.

I think boiling it down to "he's a year behind" is kind of hand waving it away. If he was simply a year behind, we'd still expect an upward trend. It was opposite; he fell off a cliff as the year went with little development. He wasn't making better swing decisions, wasn't making more contact, wasn't making harder contact, his swing path flattened out more... Point is, I don't think it's as simple as "Well, he's a year younger!" I really don't think I see anything his data that suggests he was getting better against MLB pitching. I don't wish ill on Cam, honestly, whether he does well or not, I'll be fine. But I really don't see much in there that makes me think it's as simple as his age or experience. I think he need a bunch of work; his swing is an issue.

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images Eli Morgan - Relief Pitcher Age on Opening Day 2026: 30 Service Time: 3.1 years 2023 salary: League Minimum 2024 salary: League Minimum 2025 salary: League Minimum 2026 projected salary: $1,100,000 Background: Eli Morgan was acquired from the Cleveland Guardians last offseason. The Cubs had seen their bullpen fail in September 2024, succumbing to injuries and ineffectiveness. Morgan was coming off a sub-2.00 ERA, fueled by good contact suppression. Never much of a strikeout artist, with a fastball averaging under 92 mph, Morgan was still a useful part of a contender's bullpen. 2025 Season: The 2025 season was not one to remember for Morgan. He would log just a fraction over seven innings for the Cubs, as he suffered a right elbow impingement in April. Despite attempting a comeback during the season, he was ultimately shut down in August. It's hard to judge Morgan's truncated campaign. His numbers were awful across the board, posting an ERA over 12.00; a strikeout rate of 11.4%; and an xFIP of 6.00. However, considering it was just seven frames and he was clearly injured, it's difficult to see how much was regression and how much his injury contributed Cubs' Depth at reliever: Likely on the MLB roster: Daniel Palencia, Porter Hodge, Andrew Kittredge (1-year option) On the 40-man roster: Jack Neeley, Jordan Wicks, Luke Little, Javier Assad, Gavin Hollowell, Ethan Roberts Triple-A options: Jaxon Wiggins, Tom Cosgrove, Riley Martin Summary: The Cubs acquired Morgan to help fix an ailing bullpen. Sadly for both the Cubs and Morgan, he did not help accomplish that. The reliever was always likely to see some regression, as his xFIP sat well above 4.00 even in his ostensibly excellent 2024, but due to his contact suppression, he's got the profile of a FIP-beater. This wasn't the season either side had hoped for, but the injury does give Morgan a bit of an excuse. Why the Cubs should offer Eli Morgan a contract: Morgan was really good in 2024. Not only did he have a stellar 1.93 ERA on the season, but the crafty hurler had an expected ERA of 2.57. He accomplished this with elite marks in preventing hard contact and keeping the ball in the park. Morgan doesn't need overpowering stuff to be useful. When you add in how good the Cubs' defense should remain going forward, he still seems like a potentially strong option. Why the Cubs should not offer Eli Morgan a contract: The margins for someone like Morgan are precariously thin, as he does not suppress contact through overwhelming stuff. With a below-average heater, the only pitch Morgan throws that grades out above average on shape models is his changeup. He does not offer strong whiff numbers, despite inducing a lot of chase. Elbows are fragile, and it's hard to tell exactly what to expect from Morgan after suffering an elbow problem this year. Projection: The Cubs are likely to tender Morgan a deal, but settle before they go to arbitration at a number below what MLB Trade Rumors projects. Morgan, coming off of a lost year, likely doesn't want to hit the market, and the Cubs are losing much of their bullpen heading into 2026. Depth is always important, when it comes to the pen. Because of this, I think the two can agree on a deal south of the $1,100,000 projection. Even if it's that number or higher, though, this won't be a troublesome line item on the budget. If Morgan does return, expect his grasp on a relief role to be tenuous. The Cubs wasted little time cutting relievers last year, as they reimagined their bullpen unit throughout the season. Veterans Ryan Pressly, Julian Merryweather and Chris Flexen were all designated for assignment by the end of July, after starting the season as key arms. Morgan would be a low-leverage guy, though he could work his way up the pecking order if he can look like his 2024 self. What do you think will happen with Eli Morgan? I think I already let the cat out of the bag there. The Cubs have better info than we do on Morgan's elbow and his stuff during rehab work after the injury, but unless the prognosis is worse than you'd guess, they're likely to bring him back. Would you tender Morgan a contract? What should the Cubs do? Let us know in the comments and spark a conversation. View full article

"Unknown Finalist" is also a possibility per the article. They could still hire the guy in the mascot getup. Don't count them as sane yet.

Yeah, I think there are some narrow pathways in which the Cubs would tender him, but I think in the end, he'll probably end up somewhere else. With that said, I feel a little like we haven't seen the last of McGuire in a Cub uniform? He seems like the exact kind of player who a team signs to be their backup, he struggles, gets the DFA and then ends up back with the Cubs in Iowa come June. Or a guy who the Cubs trade a low-level prospect for when Amaya gets knocked out again. Credit to Reese for even making this debatable.

He even checks the boxes of things the Cubs tend to target. He's a pronator, not a supinator, he has a low-arm angle slot (look at how the Cubs lowered the arm angles of many of their SP's last year), and he's got real funk - he throws a reverse slider. The Cubs are not afraid of pitches that stuff+ models don't like (they went heavy on mediocre and bad 4 seam shapes last year) and they always love a little funk. I really think Imai hits a lot of the internal boxes. And what it would allow them to do is to spend their 2nd round compensation elsewhere if they wanted to. Tucker is going to net the team a 2nd round pick and they have been more willing to spend on comp players when they already were getting a pick back. So I think if you want a big offseason, Imai might be the pathway.

Image courtesy of © Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images C : Reese McGuire Age on Opening Day 2026: 31 Service Time: 5.1 years 2023 Salary: 1,225,000 2024 Salary: $1,500,000 2025 Salary: $2,000,000 2026 Salary (Projection): $1,900,000 Background: Reese McGuire signed a minor league contract with the Chicago Cubs in January 2025. The veteran catcher was expected to split catching duties in Iowa with top prospect Moises Ballesteros while waiting in the wings in case of injury befalling either Carson Kelly or Miguel Amaya. McGuire had bounced around between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Boston Red Sox in previous seasons as a backup. Despite carrying a disappointing career wRC+, his 87 wRC+ against RHP suggested that in a limited role, he could be a useful member of an MLB organization. 2025 Season: When Amaya hit the IL this summer, the Cubs turned to the left-handed hitting catcher to fill in. Hitting not one, but two home runs in his first game with the Cubs, McGuire planted himself on the MLB roster throughout the rest of the season, finishing with a somewhat respectable (for a catcher) 86 wRC+ while allowing his strong defensive ability to carry him to being worth 0.8 fWAR in 140 plate appearances. It looked like the Cubs might have needed to move on from Reese around the trade deadline, but a second injury to Amaya once again showed his importance to the organization as he finished out the year as Kelly's understudy. Cubs Depth at Catcher: Carson Kelly: 115 wRC+, 2.6 fWAR (111 games) - 40 man roster Miguel Amaya: 124 wRC+, .9 fWAR (28 games) - 40 man roster Moises Ballesteros: 120 wRC+, .3 fWAR (20 games) - 40 man roster* *denotes an optionable player Summary: McGuire was probably as good as could have been hoped for. The catcher hit nine home runs in 140 plate appearances, which was triple his previous career high, while providing plus defense at arguably the most important defensive position on the diamond. It's likely that the Cubs got a bit lucky, as well, considering that McGuire's .290 wOBA crushed his expected wOBA of .266. Regardless, he was exactly what a backup catcher should be: available and capable. Why the Cubs should offer him a contract: Good catching is in short supply around the league. Even with hitters like Cal Raleigh, who went bananas in the 2025 season, MLB catchers posted a 94 wRC+; it's not easy to hit and be behind the dish on a daily basis. Beyond just how poor league catching is, catchers get banged up pretty often. Amaya lost half of the season and he isn't unique in losing games to injury; we can expect that the Cubs will need an emergency third catcher at least once in 2026. While the North Siders do have a top prospect in Moises Ballesteros who, in theory, can catch, the reality is that his defense is still a work in progress and I'm not sure he can be trusted to pick up catching duties at the MLB level just yet. Why the Cubs should not offer him a contract: With the way MLB rosters are organized today—i.e., they carry 13 pitchers—teams only get to carry four reserve hitters. What this means is that versatility is of the utmost importance. It's why players like Vidal Brujan continue to get looks. With Carson Kelly under contract for 2026, and Miguel Amaya set to be healthy, the Cubs will already have one of their four bench positions spoken for by a catcher-only type. The Cubs are unlikely to devote half of their entire bench to catchers. Projection: The Cubs non-tender Reese McGuire. I don't think this is necessarily because McGuire is not a capable MLB backup, but a circumstance of their current roster; Carson Kelly was too good in 2025, Miguel Amaya is too young and promising to give up on, and McGuire is not versatile enough. If the veteran catcher had an option left, I think the Cubs would be glad to carry him in Iowa, but he's probably been too good to have to settle for another minor league deal. When you add it all up, even though McGuire acquitted himself well in 2025, he will likely have to find a different organization to call home in 2026. What do you think about offering arbitration to Reese McGuire? Reese McGuire's arbitration case is a unique one. If the Cubs didn't have two capable catchers, he'd be a fine backup, especially at his projected price tag. At the same time, he's not so good you have to keep him around. There are interesting arguments to be made on both sides. View full article

Lance's guess was in the 7/$140m range. Which feels high for a pitcher and the Cubs, but with how arms are aging, and his age, I think that feels like a contract they could conceivably stretch to and it not be insane for the team. No compensation attached as well.

With the NPB guys coming over, Lance Brozdowski did a rundown on a lot of the high profile guys coming over. After looking at the Imai profile, I think the Cubs are going to like him a lot. He's got a lot of the things the Cubs enjoy. I'm not 100% sure they will go with him, but I think he'd be a guy the front office likes. If you told me he was at the top of their wishlist, I wouldn't be shocked.

I wouldn't rather see Owen Caissie. I like Caissie as a prospect, but the likelihood he's in the ballpark of Kyle Tucker's 140 wRC+ is unlikely for a rookie season. He struggled with velocity at times in Triple-A and he's not going to add much defensively. We can safely assume most, if not every single rookie will struggle and his contact rates, even if they got better, will be a hurdle. I do think he can be a good MLB player, but I think most of the people who say they'd rather see Owen Caissie in RF now will not feel that way come June 1st (I've seen how Cub fans have reacted to Pete Crow-Armstrong, Miguel Amaya, Matt Shaw and even the first stint of Ballesteros this year and it's never pretty). There very well may be a cross over point, where Caissie will be just as good of a hitter, but that's probably a 95% or better outcome. I also don't think that's going to come nearly as soon as many seem to think. And this is coming from someone who has always been on the high end of Caissie.

Matt Shaw posted a 99 wRC+ after he came back in May, and a 131 wRC+ in the second half of the season. Even his worst month in the second half was a 95 wRC+. None of that is "Triple-A" ish. His pathway with his bat literally mirrors what PCA did in 2024, it's fair to expect a similar 109 wRC+ possibility next year. As well, where he hit matters little. Who cares? Similar players to his hard hit% and EV's (to his second half, specifically) are players such as Isaac Parades and TJ Friedl, both of whom were well above league average hitters. The special sauce there is a significant pull% and guess who turned into one of the highest pull hitters in the league? Matt Shaw. You can overcome these things with pulling the baseball, exactly what he did. There's a lot we can say about Matt Shaw the person. As a baseball player, none of what you're suggesting here is correct. He was essentially an MLB league average hitter after returning in May, made significant progress in the second half, and did so in a way that is sustainable with a lower EV style. I'm not sure he's going to be a star baseball player, but his floor of a 2 - 2.5 fWAR player is clear and there's a pathway to be a good MLB regular.

It's a funny bitch. Anyone who says anything definitive about a prospect on draft day is talking about things they do not understand. You really have to be prepared to be wrong and left with egg all over your face every time you have an MLB draft opinion.

Even Lance Brodzowski wasn't very high on him....just two months ago! It's funny how these things go. It's really hard to get these 100% correct. Lance is at the forefront as to what I'd consider pitching analysis and even he came away kind of unenthused with Yesevage. I'll still take a bit of a wait and see approach, but recent results certainly suggest that he is better than advertised.

His BABIP was .40 points lower than his career numbers yet all of his batted ball data was better. His xwOBA was also his career high. All of his predictive data suggests not only was this a good year, but his best season in Major League Baseball. His ISO was .30 points higher - not some asinine rise, either. Whether he hits 28 or 32 home runs next year,. there is nothing in his profile to suggest any downturn in power production coming like you are suggesting here. It wouldn't be a surprise at all for him to hit 30 home runs again.

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images Depending on which prospect list you favor, the Chicago Cubs finished the year with somewhere between two and four top-100 prospects from their offensive ranks—players such as outfielders Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcántara, and catcher (or designated hitter) Moisés Ballesteros. The Cubs also saw other impressive performances, from positionless slugger Jonathon Long and shortstop Jefferson Rojas. Not everyone had their best season, but most of the Cubs' best prospects had solid seasons. Determining a winner was difficult, but there was one player who (in my opinion) made the most progress, on top of having the best season. Honorable Mention: Jonathon Long, 1B/DH It's really hard to not give this award to Long, truly. He finished his campaign in Triple-A with a .305/.404/.479 slash line, good for a 131 wRC+. This, on its own, is really impressive, but it's when we go further into the data that the most impressive portions of his season become obvious. Not only did long strike out less than 20% of the time on the season, but he walked 13% of the time to go with it. Beyond a good approach, the batted-ball data Long posted hints at a ton of future success. Long was patient, didn't chase, and when he swung, he did damage, finishing in the 98th percentile for xwOBA. His barrel rate, exit velocity and hard-hit rate were all 80th percentile or better. Long has probably done all he needs to do in Iowa, and could be playing in the majors (for someone) by Opening Day 2026. 2025 Minor League Hitter of the Year: Owen Caissie I went back and forth between Long and Caissie, but I came down on the side of the lefty-hitting Canadian. The two had similarly good offensive seasons, with Caissie finishing with a 139 wRC+ to Long's 131. Caissie struck out more on the top line, but hit a few more home runs. You can make a strong argument for either, but I think the development that Caissie showed as the year wore on is the deciding factor. if there has been a knock on the big outfielder's game, it's been his low contact rates and copious strikeouts. Over his first two months, the hulking hitter was sitting at a 33.2% strikeout rate; this is just not good enough for someone who's had as much time in Iowa as Caissie has had (2025 was his second full campaign). After June 1, however, Caissie's strikeout rate steadily declined, sitting at a very good 23.9% for the rest of his time in Iowa. He saw a jump from a 105 wRC+ to a 165 from the first span to the second. This is sparkling; that's a true middle-of-the-order hitter. All of this would even culminate with the Canadian getting a small cup of coffee with the Cubs. It's true that Long had long stretches of great play, but the transformation Caissie showed was impressive. We should be careful not to assume Caissie's strikeout concerns are in the past, as with the amount of playing time he had in Iowa, part of the forward leap could simply be figuring out the league better. Pitchers in the majors can't be figured out the same way Triple-A arms can. With that said, I think this type of improvement is key, and really gives you an idea that he may he the type of slugging corner outfielder the Cubs can trust in 2026 if they lose Kyle Tucker to free agency. What did you think of Owen Caissie's year? Would you have had a different winner? Let us know in the comments below! View full article

He dropped his arm slot before. I do think the issue with his fastball and splitter were tied to the arm slot. It's really hard to get on top of the fastball when the arm slot drops. He was over 40 degrees last year. He never came close to where he was last year: But yeah. his velo drop should be noted, I don't want to go entirely against that.

The Cubs already tried to change him into 2025. I don't think the answer is velo. The Cubs dropped his arm slot, my guess, is to add to the sweeper. Didn't work, it left his fastball (high ride and needed to get to the top 3rd) sit more middle third. I think Shota is what Shota is. That's okay. His fastball at his velo plays top third, But it dropped in location due to a drop of arm slot.