Jason Ross

Well, I'd really ask you to re-read my post because I think I covered all of those things. I was very careful to say it, but I'll say it again: * wasn't a 1:1 comparison and I really don't like direct comparisons because it makes unrealistic expectations * that he's a Bregman style hitter (not fielder), and that I'm not saying he's an 8 fWAR player But if we're talking stylistically...yeah I think they're similar-ish. There's plenty of lift in the swing profile of Mead; he's got a good swing to generate the ball in the air. He's not going to strike out a lot, he makes good swing decisions. I know FG shows a lot of GB's...those numbers can be pretty unreliable; again, I love FG but MiLB batted ball data is...all over the place and their stat tracking is bonkers at times. I'm more interested in the swing profile and there's plenty of lift to be generated there, especially as he's moved his hands from being lower (which was creating extra movement in the hands) to higher again (which creates less movement = that's good). I think there can be even more power unlocked with small tweaks. He's also an exit velocity monster, posting some of the best EV's in the minors a few years running. We also know that players with strong contact rates correlate at some of the highest levels to productive MLB hitters. We'll have to disagree here. I think Curtis Mead is a impact type bat.

I've got Mead closer to a Bregman and less of a JD Davis. Defensive scouting on him has him between a 35 and a 45 based on where you see him. That's not a 1:1 to Bregman, I'm not saying he's destined for 8 fWAR, but the hit tool is considerably better than Davis, and if we're talking "upside" he's closer to Bregman than Davis for me. I try my best to avoid direct comparisons (I find they create unfair expectations for prospects that they can never live up to), but I think he's closer to that stylistically. Maybe a Bregman-style hitter with more league average-ish defense or slightly below. I think he's about the best potential outcome the Cubs can get in my book, but different folks for different strokes, right?

There are parts of Fangraphs I adore. They're easily the best website for data, I find fWAR far superior to bWAR in almost every single way, they're adding OAA and RAA to their defensive stuff, they have ZiPS integrated and STEAMER. I'm as much of a FG-stan you can find for that stuff. For years they should have paid me for the advertising I've done at their behest (I kid). But their prospect stuff has been...frankly, awful for about 2+ years now comparative to so many others. Prospects Live, BA, and simply finding (insert team here)'s version of Smith/Zumach/Huss I find far more compelling lately. I am speculating here, but FG feels like there's a financial crunch (how many times have they advertised for funding recently?) and it's hitting the scouting/prospect end first. The Cubs top-50 list they put out was...IMO, about the worst list I've seen. Not because they were mean to the system (it was pretty kind) but it just didn't make sense and was all over the place, as an example. And this goes back to stuff I've noticed from 2021, where Logenhagen had super outdated information on guys like Caleb Killian post-TDL. And it kills me because I really have liked Logehagen over the years so this isn't meant to be like, an anti-Eric thing, I think he's doing the best with what he has, but it feels like what he has is...less than needed. But to clarify, he mentions he's a 50, but there's been no recent update for 7 months other than a small throw away comment, and the FV on his page is from 2022. /rant over. Do forgive.

I'm pretty hesitant to use FG rankings currently. They get updated at random intervals and don't seem to follow any sort of rule set. There was a time and a date FG rankings were my top, go to, but I'm not sure I'd put Aranda as a 50 FV myself. That ranking is also from 2022, he's graduated off the prospect list. I also would just flat out ignore Jim Bowden. Jim Bowden is probably the worst "insider" in media today (did you see his "proposal" for the Cubs and Astros trade? It read laughably like something I'd expect on an Astros fanboard). His opinions are...out there. And I rarely find myself in any sort of agreement with him. With the market we're looking at, I expect Stroman to actually bring back a very solid return. More-so than other prospects. The SP is pretty non-existent at the top tier; Ohtani is a unicorn, Snell might be available, then it's a drop off to Giolitio. Teams like Baltimore (13th in xFIP), Tampa Bay (leading in xFIP but thin rotation after top-3), Arizona (23rd in xFIP), the Dodgers (15th in xFIP), Toronto (11th in xFIP), Texas (17th in xFIP) will all, probably, be sniffing around the SP market. Houston is reportedly interested. There's a few teams like the Reds (26th), Yankees (20th), Milwaukee (19th) who could jump in there as well if they decide to go for it. That's not to say all are specifically Stroman markets, but that the limited resource of good SP's just wont be enough for teams to all get something. Bellinger is the player I expect to bring back a kind of...lacking return. I think we'll be disappointed on the Bellinger return, but get a pretty darn solid return on Stroman. With Aranda for me it's "is he a 1b only type or do you believe he can play something else?" As a 1b only...I'd need something else coming back. Honestly, he profiles as a hitter with similar questions and wonders like Mervis. He's someone who's dominated AAA every chance he's gotten there, and in a similar amount of PA's at the MLB level has questions on LA and questions on hitting MLB breaking balls. These are common issues with MiLB talents first making their way to the MLB, but more concerning for players who have to hit. I'm still on team "The Cubs shouldn't give up on Mervis" but I also think there's a bit of a difference on not giving up on someone, and them being the primary return in this kind of a trade.

I waffle on how I feel about Mead's availability there. I think I settle on the "I think it's wishful thinking, but it's not entirely unrealistic" as of today. Like I said, I think there's reasons to believe he could be available. And I wouldn't be shocked to see the Cubs send something back...I think a Daniel Palencia could make sense here, possibly a Merryweather (due to control, despite being 32) as well ...the Rays love them some BP arms and it's hard to tell sometimes just what they will value in these situations. Aranda is fun, but I think the Cubs would need something else pretty enticing to go along with him. He's kind of sitting in the same category as Matt Mervis right now, dominated AAA but no success in limited MLB time. As a 1b as well, the path to MLB relevancy is so narrow. I would think the Cubs can do better than a 1-1 Stroman/Aaranda swap on the market.

The context I'm using is my personal belief there aren't 30 better young players in the minors if I'm looking at the MiLB right now. There aren't many guys who grade out across the board as a 50-55 hit tool, 60-game power tool hitter. The question about sticking at 3b is real, and I avoid home-scouting defense (I think it's truly an impossible task for so many reasons), but after some deep dives on his offensive game, he's a legitimately excellent hitter. The swing is great, the swing decisions are great. He's short to the ball, not a lot of moving parts. and has power that plays the other way. He's changed his hand placement a bit this year; he started earlier much lower than previous seasons but has gone back up with his hands. I'm okay with his hands up, I think he gets leverage there when he stays short. I think it helps him "stretch the rubber band" so to speak, and creates power. If the Cubs get Curtis Mead on a 1 for 1 swap I wouldn't call that cheap. Based on the current landscape on how teams have handled prospects, and especially the landscape of MLB 3b...it's an overpay.

I'm not sure he's marginally better. I will be very candid; I generally don't believe much in "hot streaks". I think good games can come in bunches, and sometimes they're spread out, and that many times it's a correlation is not causation thing. Secondly, Patrick Wisdom has been an 80 wRC+ hitter for the bulk of the season; he's also a highly negative fielder (DH level at 3b over his last 2 years and getting worse). The Cubs pitched a GB heavy arm yesterday. The sample size on Mastrobuoni at 3b is very small, but has suggested he's a good defender there (+1 in 100 innings. We need more data to make any sweeping determinations there, as 100 is small sample for defensive data). There's logic to follow as to why Mastrobuoni got the start. Overall, I don't think it really matters if Wisdom or Mastrobuoni starts most nights, and if you dig back a few posts, I said exactly that, so we're in agreement. I think both are trash, neither belong on the MLB roster. I just don't think Patrick Wisdom's "hot streak" is much of a justification, however. Even if we put stock into the "hot streak" the reality is, it's always more likely to end than continue on any given night.

I was a long time mod on PSD. Over a decade...I think I've been modding the Cubs forum on PSD since...2010 or so. Under the same screen name as here. First time joining NSBB on anything more than a stop-by. I created this account a few years ago but never seriously posted here.

Man, I just posted how the Rays are a great Stroman match; they have SP depth issues, and a great infield defensively. Someone hire me for the front office in Tampa Bay... Okay, enough, of that. I'll say, I think Curtis Mead is possibly in play here. I think it's your high-end win in a trade, requires the Cubs to eat Stroman's contract, but I think he's in play with the market, where the Rays are, the fit with Stroman, and the kind of good, but not great season Mead has had. I agree, Caminero and Bradley are off the table, but I think with the real season Caminero is having, with Paredes at 3b...I think Mead is in a weird space between the two. He's blocked in LF with Arozarena, they have Ramirez at DH (sometimes Yandy). Maybe I'm just hopeful, though. (If Mead is on the table, he's easily my favorite return the Cubs could get. This includes Baltimore)

The bar is so incredibly low. Baltimore's uniforms are black with what feels like Times New Roman "BALTIMORE" on them...and the only interesting design element is inside the damn thing! What are you doing, Nike?

Gambler's Fallacy requires the event to be random. Patrick Wisdom's talent level is not random. While any PA is anecdotal, there's a reason certain statistics are more predictive and can give us insight as to how a player will likely play. The reality is, on any given day, Patrick Wisdom is likely to play to his talent level...and his talent level is that of an organizational up/down player who's capable of compiling statistics given sample sizes, but generally, isn't very good. I didn't mean to make a direct 1:1 comparison here from Wisdom to Gambler's Fallacy, only to highlight the idea that "riding the hot hand" requires the team to understand that you only win when you predict when a player will no longer be hot before they go cold. With Wisdom, it's more likely any given day, he plays to his true talent level than to be "hot".

Ugh, how I despise that Wrigleyville nonsense we wear on Fridays.

It's like a damn reunion.

If the Cubs can get Curtis Mead for Marcus Stroman, I would expect the Cubs would gladly pack Stroman's bags for him, deliver him to the airport in the nicest luxury vehicle available, and fly him first class on a boutique airline to Tampa Bay. Curtis Mead is a top-30 prospect in all of baseball with plus game power who's just struggled a bit initially in Durham. I frankly cannot imagine the Cubs getting a better return than Curtis Mead.

That is absolutely fantastic and I'm glad some things never change. It was a surprise to me when I first saw him elevate and become kind of a big Twins thing, because to me, he was always the dude who posted on the MLB PSD forum and who I played online OOTP with. On a Twins note; super excellent uniform update ya'll had. I feel like teams across sports are aiming to do exactly what you did this year; create a sort of...fauxback that looks like it fits in the overall identity without feeling overly minimalistic. Only thing I wish is that they kept the Minne and Paul logo on the sleeve (as I believe they ditched that).

I like the Twins. Are you familiar with Brandon Warne? I know he covers the Twins. He used to post with us back on PSD a while back. He was a nice guy. The Brewers...less so, but now I live in Lexington, KY, and there's zero Brewers representation around here (zero Reds representation when they aren't good too) so they've kind of fallen off my "I don't like this team" radar. I actually put up the goodbye PSD post yesterday, and even before I remembered I already had an account here, had recommended NSBB as a possible new-home! And I'll be glad to let everyone know it's a great community. I know we're all a little sad our home's for sale but this already feels real nice and welcoming and the dedicated crew we had definitely loves bickering and talking about Cub baseball.

Glad to be here! It's been nothing but welcoming, site is easy to navigate, and nostalgic with seeing old friends.

VBulletin, yep! And a completely absent owner/IT group. We've basically been running the site with a handful (like 5-6) active moderators and not a single way to fix anything on the backend or change anything. There was once the site went all the way down, and thankfully after a day or so, someone was able to find someone to get us back online. I'm shocked anyone even told us we were shutting down; the 24th feels weird with timing (TDL is such a boon to site traffic) but I always figured we'd try to sign on one day and realize it was just dead and broken forever without warning, and frankly I'm not sure which I prefer now haha. Glad to see this place runs quite opposite to PSD in these regards!

PCA's hit tool will be what carries him at the MLB, but his hyper aggressiveness at the plate will likely deflate the OBP/walk rates. Even as he matures there, he's a free swinger, and MLB pitchers will exploit this. His peak, best case scenario for me is something like a .300/.330/.450 type, with ~5-6% walk rate, a K% in the 20-22%, and 20 HR's, 30 doubles, 5 triples and 30 stolen bases with +10 DRS in CF. That's crazy valuable, and I know that, but we're going "peak" here. I think his most likely outcome is in the Kevin Kiermaier mold; a 2.5-3.5 fWAR guy in CF who can hit 15 home runs, adds value on the bases and the field first and foremost, and sits between a 90-110 wRC+ hitter most seasons as his hyper aggressive nature at the plate takes BABIP turns up and down.

I would doubt he holds much trade value currently for a trade or move any needles other than a last second throw in. I think his story is really cool; he's made himself interesting recently, but the 174 PA's he has this year as a ~24 year old in AA are the first 170 PA's he's had that are interesting since 2019. He'll need to be on a 40-man next year or he'll be Rule V eligible as well.

I think the Rays would be interested in Marcus Stroman...especially if the Cubs eat money on the way over (which they 100% should). If there's a hole in the Rays at the MLB level, it's their pitching. Their xFIP over the last 30 days is tops in the majors which suggests regression to the mean should be coming, but they're the 4th worst SP ERA in the last 30, and only 10th in FIP. Why the big distinction in ERA vs xFIP; tons of HR's given up...and I'm not sure the xFIP is being fair; the Rays probably had negative regression coming there and they're finding it. Their rotation is buoyed by the generally good, but not elite Zach Eflin, excellent Shane McClannahan, and Tyler Glasnow, but past that it's thin. Bradley is an excellent prospect but hasn't been great, Criswell is freshly returned. Overall the Rays have been sinking over their last 45 games or so. With the Yankees and the Red Sox below them, I think they're in a unique situation to buy a player like Stroman; they're looking at a possible division win, and they're very strong defensively; they lead the league in SS DRS, they're 11th in 2b DRS, and 12th in 3b DRS; so they have a strong infield to support Stroman.

Riding the hot hand is a practice in gambling. Degenerate gamblers will ride the hot hand into the ground, believing that a good run in the dice/cards, which is attributable mostly to anecdotal events, will continue and that the best thing to do is go until you're no "hot" any more. What does that result in? A net-negative balance. Patrick Wisdom is more likely every game to not be "hot" any more, than he is to be hot, because Patrick Wisdom is bad. You have to know when to put the dice down.

I'd trust the Cubs to trade with Tampa Bay. When you trade with Tampa Bay, I think you have to recognize they know their minor league system incredibly well, and have a very strong developmental team, but also a very strong analytical and modeling team. The Cubs, especially over the last few years, have done a pretty wonderful job picking prospects from systems. The Rays are incredibly deep, the Cubs are good at modeling data and prospect picking...I think we'd do fine. Baltimore is my favorite team to trade with, but Tampa Bay is right up there as probably my second favorite. Some teams cannot handle Tampa in trades, but I'd expect the Cubs to do well.

As a former moderator on PSD, you wouldn't need to buy PSD as I'm fairly certain the ownership of that website would have been glad to give someone money to take that system off their hands. The backend of that site was archaic. (It was so bad that my initial reaction to learning the IT for the website posted our closure date that I believed it had to be a scam because we haven't heard from them in literal years)