Jason Ross

After the draft. So all the way until All-Star Break.

While fair, many of these players had issues that hid below the "numbers" that people used to prognosticate greatness. For example, sometimes there are players who's "numbers" look good on the overall, but swing and miss well too much. They may even have good K% in the MiLB, but process wise, swing far too often. Perhaps a player has good numbers in Double-A but once they reach higher levels they simply can't process fast enough against MLB pitching. Or maybe they struggle with velocity up, and pitchers at Triple-A or the MLB are far more capable of exploiting that weakness. There are many things that can hide in plain sight. As well, you can find any anecdotal evidence you want, so we can play this game with any number of prospects. Projection systems would never claim themselves to be able to project at any specific percentage or claim to be perfect. But too often people use the anecdotal to ignore the trends. If you look back at the links I provided in my other response, you'll see there are data points that correlate, quite highly, to the MLB. I'm quite confident, without knowing the specific recipe, of something like ZiPS, that they're using this data as a basis of their yearly projections. There's a good middle ground: there's no reason to swear off projection systems as pseudosciences while also knowing their limitations (which is what they are capable of using as input data). There are always variables, age, injury, mentals...that can't be accounted for in a full analytical way, too. They're a good guide book. For example, if ZiPS thinks a player in Double-A is going to be better than industry lists do; it's worth noting them and keeping an eye on them., Conversely, if people are high on a kid in Triple-A but ZiPS isn't...maybe there's some extra investigation worth doing as to figure out why that is.

There are some MiLB to MLB calculators out there, but I'm never sure how much I feel confident in them, especially wondering how much emphasis they put on specific data points like those in the articles. ZiPS does projections (and I am very strongly of belief that they take those data points into account...and more...because the low-level players they predict to be good generally have strong bat to ball, for example). Anecdotally I remember ZiPS pointing to Isaac Parades, when he was just in Low-A with the Cubs as a real breakout prospect.

ZiPS is pretty good at using the right metrics. We know there are certain metrics that correlate from MilB to the MLB. For example: contact% is a really good predictor, one of the absolute best, from Triple-A to the MLB. Hitters who make contact a lot in Triple-A generally make a lot of contact the MLB. Same with things like pitchers who get groundballs; they keep getting them. There are ways to take MiLB data and use it to predict the MLB. Is it exact? Certainly not; no projection is. But you can make pretty solid guesswork from MiLB data. Here's a study fangraphs did from 2019 looking at what hitting data correlates to MLB data strongest. There's a link within the article that will show you the pitching side of things as well. Here is another article looking at hitting correlation between MiLB and the MLB And from the same source as the previous, the companion piece on pitching These studies are from 2019 and 2020, but considering how much data needs to go into these studies, a few years isn't going to change this.

I'm not sure Jake Burger is any more capable of playing third than Christopher Morel is. He was a -7 DRS in 850 innings last year, a -8 OAA, and in the bottom 3% of all OAA range factor. The Marlins gave him latitude to play third base, more so than the Cubs gave Morel, but I think Burger is a 1b/DH more than I think he's a real third baseman. I do agree in principal that I think there are probably some trades that the Cubs can make and probably should have overall. They're getting close to "hoarding" levels and while depth is good there is such a thing as "too much" (when we talk about options, 40 man slots, etc...). I'd really like to see the Cubs make a large deal. I can't say whom that is right now...I think a lot of trades are of the "off the radar" types and it's just so hard to predict what one team would think of prospect X, Y and Z versus another. Hopefully around the deadline (which seems like the most likely trade time) the Cubs can start to consolidate some of the excess into a trade.

He signed a two year contract in Korea as he was an MiLB free agent.

Yeah I agree. Especially for someone like Horton, who I truly believe is basically MLB ready right now. Get a handful of starts in Iowa that show the stuff is ready and in tune, and I'd be ready to say he's next person up in case of injury. I'd rather Horton be pitching in September than May, and if we're limiting him to, maybe, 130 IP in 2024, it's going to be taken into consideration. Overall, like I said, I think some people will note the absence, but I think the Cubs may just be working on that late-start-timeline-pushback.

No Cade Horton will get people talking, but I think that's a good thing. I have a feeling Horton is going to get a "late start" on purpose to limit wear/tear/innings. But, for me, that says how high the Cubs are on Horton and just how ready they think he is.

Not to toot my horn...but that's the conclusion I came to myself with a deep dive into both players Triple-A data. On the surface they look similar but the processes are vastly differently. It's interesting because I was always a Mervis fan, but that's because the eye test hides the process, as do the overall lines. Getting real in depth, you can see it. The Cubs have that data and more. If I can find it...well the Cubs can. Far more efficiently and better.

On opening day you'd be pretty stagnant across the board defensively, with a changeout at 1b from Mancini/Hosmer to Busch (kind of unknown) and Tauchmann who would likely be a downgrade in CF, unless the team opened with Pete Crow-Armstrong (which I'm just not sure they'll do). I still think they'll do something, but I can see where you'd be probably giving away something defensively.

I think both of these things make sense. First, being "platoon" has been a "dirty" or bad word in baseball for a while, but we have to move past this connotation. Left handed hitters, league wide, are just really bad against left handed pitching. Left handed hitters had a 90 wRC+ league wide against LHP. This is a .303 wOBA, or in simple terms, a .240/.315/.375 slash. Just 25 left handed hitters, with at least 100 PA's had a wRC+ over 100 against LHP. It's incredible how bad lefties are against lefties. Left handed hitters are basically Dom Smith against LHP. Ask yourself this: do you want Dom Smith in your lineup? Ever? That's...bad. In comparison, even bumping the sample size to over 2x (to 250 PA's) there are 72 right handed hitters who had a 100 wRC+ against RHP. Being part of a "platoon" now a days is just normal. Is Michael Busch going to be more of a platoon hitter than not? Probably, he's left handed and managers are starting to figure this out (he didn't have terrible numbers against LHP in Triple-A so there's some hope he can be somewhat useful against LHP). The Brewers, under Craig Consell, had some of the biggest use of platoons in the league. Don't think of it as "dirty" or "bad". Think of it as "maximizing". The Cubs are going to maximize their lineups daily to make sure they don't just pencil someone in the lineup just because. So Micahel Busch will be put in places he'll more likely succeed in while allowing hitters who hit LHP to succeed more in his place when needed. Mervis...well I did an article on him recently. His issues with contact were on display in Triple-A as well. It's more than K%...he was a bottom 10 contact% in Triple-A post his return. There's real issues there. The Cubs have always had reservations there, and I think I am starting to see why.

2020-2021: 69 wRC+, .269 wOBA, .282 BABIP, .088 ISO, 12.3 BB%, 27.8% K% 2023 (last 150): 74 wRC+.271 wOBA, 271 BABIP, .066 ISO, 15.6 BB%, 24.5% K% I think you can suggest that perhaps the approach was a bit better, but other than that, the Mike Tauchmann we saw to close out the year was, generally speaking, spot on the guy he was previously. This was his rolling wOBA from 2020 to 2021. There's some peaks and valleys, much likely that 150 PA span from 2023 to close out the season. Really, what stands out in 2023 is that one, extended run from about, June 11th through July 19th where he ISO'd .180 (that big peak in 2023). Outside of that, much of his rolling wOBA in 2023 is similar to that of the past...the peak he had was just much extended versus those of the past. There always will be those peaks and valleys for everyone, but I don't really think I see a bad-streak...I think I just see the Mike Tauchmann I expect moving forward...the guy he kind of has been outside of his one, really nice, 2019 season. Is it an arbitrary end point? Sure. But that's kind of what happens when guys turn back into the players we expected them to kind of be, isn't it? Arbitrary? It just...happens. And I think the pixie dust for Mike just kind of...ran out. I don't want to suggest he's...worthless...but that even with curated PA's, I kind of expect him to be more like that end of the season Mike Tauchmann than the first half of 2023 Mike Tauchmann. He can lock down a fourth OF'ers role and we'll probably be fine, but I kind of expect come mid-year that he'll have his role pretty diminished once the Cubs turn over spots to players like Pete Crow-Armstrong. Overall he seems like a dude who fits in well in the clubhouse and is liked, and he has some skills that are useful enough, I just don't think the magic is going to keep.

Truthfully I think he's already turned back into a pumpkin. His final ~150 PA's saw him post a 74 wRC+. The BABIP was a bit low, but not egregiously, and he walked/K'd in normal amounts. He hit just a single homerun, and that's been his issue over his career: a real lack of power. His last 150 PA's mirrored his 301 PA's before he came to the Cubs, where he had a 69 wRC+, with a .088 ISO...so the outlier was the front half of his 2023 Cubs' production. I think the Cubs will let him start the year in a decent role, and will likely rank higher than Canario in terms of "guys the Cubs will let play". But I wouldn't be surprised to see his role diminish pretty heavily through the year, and don't rate him too high myself.

Yeah I can't see a real path to Canario making an impact in 2024 outside of a bunch of injuries. Today, I'd assume the OF depth chart looks something like: Suzuki/Happ/Tauchmann with PCA in the wings and Canario fifth. But if (and likely when) they add in Bellinger, Canario will quickly slide to the sixth spot. At DH, you have Busch/Morel/Wisdom probably ahead of him (with some movement at other positions and 1b), but also will probably add in Bellinger there, too. I don't think he's really in the mix for anything once the dust settles and would need, maybe, two injuries in the first half of the season to make a contribution. Once July hits, you might add in Murray/Shaw/Caissie into the DH/OF mix (or pushing a player into the DH mix). End result, I just don't see a path for Canario here to get more than a token >100 PA's in 2024. For a player who's on their last option, it's just not enough to be considered an asset.

Was thinking the same exact thing. Hopefully the Cubs do something about that with Juan Soto next season...

Witt signed an 11 year, 287m extension with Kansas City.

I think it has less to do with spending, or security, at a certain point and it becomes something else. I think Logan Paul is an absolute trash human being, but I caught a quote of his that I think speaks to the mindset. Basically, it was that money was a scoreboard for him. And I think that probably is a way that many athletes look at it, too. They're competitive. The $100m vs $110m? It's keeping score. It's winning. It helps me make sense as to why someone would be cool playing for a losing team. Because, maybe in their head, they're not winning games but they're winning contracts over others. It's just a new game to win.

There's a reason I teach history and not language arts. Reading comprehension skills ain't it for me.

Yeah, I'd agree that a .500 SLG is probably above and beyond. That said, I think an .800 OPS is well within reach. Mike Cameron feels like realistic goal of a prospect like PCA, and Cameron did so six times, with an seventh at .795 (which is really just splitting hairs). Don't want to make anyone think that's a prediction, just that, I think PCA's a guy who has the hit tool, the swing, the power and the speed (he's going to leg singles and turn them into doubles) to make that happen as a possibility. The question for me will be the approach.

Sounds like Boston is about to make a move. Might be worth a monitor. EDIT: Epstein back in Boston as part owner. Kind of cool for him.

Image of rhe article is a bit poorly worded. What it seems as though, is that the residence was listed in May, and did not sell. In November, the Bohne's listed it for rent. It was pulled off the market relatively quickly afterwards, according to Zillow. It has not been listed since mid-November. The tweet is alluding to Bellinger potentially renting it since his partner followed one of the Bohnes. How likely that is, is up you!

Ben Brown, but left handed and a middle infield prospect who reminds me of Michael Busch. Not a stylistic comp but in trajectory. Mid-20s prospect who's got MLB ready written all over him, but blocked. I think he's a good player. I mentioned him as a guy I wanted, around June last summer, if the Cubs were forced to sell. I think he's a guy who suffers a bit from Orioles prospect fatigue and being blocked.

I know a lot of people are going to say that's light and they think the Brewers got fleeced...but I kind of really like that deal for Milwaukee. Joey Ortiz feels criminally underrated and has some power that's been popping and DL Hall has some legit juice. Milwaukee's lost Sterns and Counsell but the support staff is largely still in place. You give that team, that stuff...and I'm a bit worried. Baltimore's system is so loaded that I think we forget how loaded it's been.

Fangraphs usually runs a "Looking back at..." article from Dan Szymborski himself. Dan's the bomb, and he's always willing to be really introspective at the projection. I really enjoy his twitter if you don't follow. He'll jump around from really cool baseball analysis, to mocking the Rockies, to some weird AI generated image. Worthy follow. Here's Dan's 2022 retrospective.

Content schedule, I'm sure. 30 teams, want to draw it out a bit. Plus, most teams are generally settled most offseasons. We're in a bit of a weird one right now. With that said, even with a few teams likely to add a 3 or so win player here or there, 99% of players projections are ready to rock and roll. So I don't blame them.