Jason Ross

His baseball savant page has become mine.

This is entirely too kind and more than just appreciated, JD.

Using Jason Heyward as a barometer, a player signed 8 years ago, an established MLB hitter, is specious reasoning. First, Curtis Mead is a 22 year old, non-established prospect, and Jason Heyward was 27 years old and had been in the MLB for half a decade. Instead, we should probably look at current Cub prospect development and I think it's pretty clear to see the Cubs prospect development team is generally doing a good job advancing hitters and working with them. They've been able to rebuild PCA's swing entirely; he has added considerable loft and LA to his swing since coming over to the Mets, the Cubs have managed to work with lower level prospects and turn them into quality hitters; Perlaza is adding more impact to his swing (though more from the left side than the right), the Cubs have done great with McGeary and Murray, they've consistently tweaked Caissie's swing (changing his hit box) and they've made huge strides with Amaya (and added considerable LA there since returning from his TJS)...I think it's pretty unfair to blame the current dev team for the failures of established MLB players a decade ago. At this stage, I'm very confident with the Chicago Cubs developmental team when it comes to identifying MiLB players of almost any position, and their ability to work with them. They don't, and can't, bat 1.000, but I'm pretty high on their MiLB system today and their dev team as a whole. Yeah, Matt Shaw has some Bregman-style to his offensive approach. I never once said "Curtis Mead is the most Alex Bregman kind of guy ever!". I can find similarities in their offensive games while also finding similarities in others. Remember, it's not a 1:1 comparison, and why I hesitate to use them. Clearly this is a sticking point for you; I'll do my best to refrain from them in the future. I also like Matt Shaw! Though I think you get a big hung up on this GB/FB thing; Shaw's far more aggressive at the plate than either Bregman, or Mead, at least using his collegiate career if we want to be comprehensive here and play this out. The K% isn't high, but the reports on him is hyper aggressive. We'll see how that plays out with the Cubs; was it an as aspect of coming from a relatively weaker NCAA conference and just being so good? Is it an issue? Can it be worked on if it is? Time will tell there, it's really hard to nail down. Bregman is among the most discerning hitters in baseball, with well below swing%, first pitch swing% and chase %, so if we want to nit pick comparisons, we can do it at almost every stage. It's why, again, I think comps are not particularly great in general. There's always going to be something different and no two players are identical. We'll probably just have to leave this here. You clearly have your opinions on Curtis Mead. I think I've made mine clear. You're welcome to your opinion on Mead; the prospect game is rife with opinions and why there's plenty of space for as many evaluators out there on the industry; disagreements are bound to occur. In the end, we'll probably both be wrong on plenty here.

Honestly, maybe, yeah. Let me think on it a bit, but I'll probably take you up on that; payment isn't really all that important. I just like to write.

I'm a teacher by trade, but writing has always been a passion. I can bang out a few pages in like 30 minutes. The real work is trying to fight through these damn MiLB streams to watch these guys. I swear my Galaxy phone has better resolution.

One of the first things I saw! I'm big on the MiLB side of things; I threw together a quick, 1600 word prospect list for PSD pre-season ranking my top, like, 50 or so guys. Glad to see a good MiLB side of things here! Like the fan voting.

I think the list was made, sometime, in late-May to very early June. I'm just guessing, but that's right around when Triantos came back healthy, before Horton really took off at SB, PCA wasn't walking, and right when Mervis was really showing his struggles at the MLB level. I then think the article sat for a month, ran threw editing, and then they post these things every few days too really stretch out the content. It felt incredibly outdated right off the bat. Personally, it was a pretty bad list. I wouldn't have had my list in anyway reflective of that. I'll throw a personal list together for ya'll post TDL. Everyone can feel free to ignore the horsefeathers out of it. I mostly do it for me, but ya'll get to read it.

Well, I'd really ask you to re-read my post because I think I covered all of those things. I was very careful to say it, but I'll say it again: * wasn't a 1:1 comparison and I really don't like direct comparisons because it makes unrealistic expectations * that he's a Bregman style hitter (not fielder), and that I'm not saying he's an 8 fWAR player But if we're talking stylistically...yeah I think they're similar-ish. There's plenty of lift in the swing profile of Mead; he's got a good swing to generate the ball in the air. He's not going to strike out a lot, he makes good swing decisions. I know FG shows a lot of GB's...those numbers can be pretty unreliable; again, I love FG but MiLB batted ball data is...all over the place and their stat tracking is bonkers at times. I'm more interested in the swing profile and there's plenty of lift to be generated there, especially as he's moved his hands from being lower (which was creating extra movement in the hands) to higher again (which creates less movement = that's good). I think there can be even more power unlocked with small tweaks. He's also an exit velocity monster, posting some of the best EV's in the minors a few years running. We also know that players with strong contact rates correlate at some of the highest levels to productive MLB hitters. We'll have to disagree here. I think Curtis Mead is a impact type bat.

I've got Mead closer to a Bregman and less of a JD Davis. Defensive scouting on him has him between a 35 and a 45 based on where you see him. That's not a 1:1 to Bregman, I'm not saying he's destined for 8 fWAR, but the hit tool is considerably better than Davis, and if we're talking "upside" he's closer to Bregman than Davis for me. I try my best to avoid direct comparisons (I find they create unfair expectations for prospects that they can never live up to), but I think he's closer to that stylistically. Maybe a Bregman-style hitter with more league average-ish defense or slightly below. I think he's about the best potential outcome the Cubs can get in my book, but different folks for different strokes, right?

There are parts of Fangraphs I adore. They're easily the best website for data, I find fWAR far superior to bWAR in almost every single way, they're adding OAA and RAA to their defensive stuff, they have ZiPS integrated and STEAMER. I'm as much of a FG-stan you can find for that stuff. For years they should have paid me for the advertising I've done at their behest (I kid). But their prospect stuff has been...frankly, awful for about 2+ years now comparative to so many others. Prospects Live, BA, and simply finding (insert team here)'s version of Smith/Zumach/Huss I find far more compelling lately. I am speculating here, but FG feels like there's a financial crunch (how many times have they advertised for funding recently?) and it's hitting the scouting/prospect end first. The Cubs top-50 list they put out was...IMO, about the worst list I've seen. Not because they were mean to the system (it was pretty kind) but it just didn't make sense and was all over the place, as an example. And this goes back to stuff I've noticed from 2021, where Logenhagen had super outdated information on guys like Caleb Killian post-TDL. And it kills me because I really have liked Logehagen over the years so this isn't meant to be like, an anti-Eric thing, I think he's doing the best with what he has, but it feels like what he has is...less than needed. But to clarify, he mentions he's a 50, but there's been no recent update for 7 months other than a small throw away comment, and the FV on his page is from 2022. /rant over. Do forgive.

I'm pretty hesitant to use FG rankings currently. They get updated at random intervals and don't seem to follow any sort of rule set. There was a time and a date FG rankings were my top, go to, but I'm not sure I'd put Aranda as a 50 FV myself. That ranking is also from 2022, he's graduated off the prospect list. I also would just flat out ignore Jim Bowden. Jim Bowden is probably the worst "insider" in media today (did you see his "proposal" for the Cubs and Astros trade? It read laughably like something I'd expect on an Astros fanboard). His opinions are...out there. And I rarely find myself in any sort of agreement with him. With the market we're looking at, I expect Stroman to actually bring back a very solid return. More-so than other prospects. The SP is pretty non-existent at the top tier; Ohtani is a unicorn, Snell might be available, then it's a drop off to Giolitio. Teams like Baltimore (13th in xFIP), Tampa Bay (leading in xFIP but thin rotation after top-3), Arizona (23rd in xFIP), the Dodgers (15th in xFIP), Toronto (11th in xFIP), Texas (17th in xFIP) will all, probably, be sniffing around the SP market. Houston is reportedly interested. There's a few teams like the Reds (26th), Yankees (20th), Milwaukee (19th) who could jump in there as well if they decide to go for it. That's not to say all are specifically Stroman markets, but that the limited resource of good SP's just wont be enough for teams to all get something. Bellinger is the player I expect to bring back a kind of...lacking return. I think we'll be disappointed on the Bellinger return, but get a pretty darn solid return on Stroman. With Aranda for me it's "is he a 1b only type or do you believe he can play something else?" As a 1b only...I'd need something else coming back. Honestly, he profiles as a hitter with similar questions and wonders like Mervis. He's someone who's dominated AAA every chance he's gotten there, and in a similar amount of PA's at the MLB level has questions on LA and questions on hitting MLB breaking balls. These are common issues with MiLB talents first making their way to the MLB, but more concerning for players who have to hit. I'm still on team "The Cubs shouldn't give up on Mervis" but I also think there's a bit of a difference on not giving up on someone, and them being the primary return in this kind of a trade.

I waffle on how I feel about Mead's availability there. I think I settle on the "I think it's wishful thinking, but it's not entirely unrealistic" as of today. Like I said, I think there's reasons to believe he could be available. And I wouldn't be shocked to see the Cubs send something back...I think a Daniel Palencia could make sense here, possibly a Merryweather (due to control, despite being 32) as well ...the Rays love them some BP arms and it's hard to tell sometimes just what they will value in these situations. Aranda is fun, but I think the Cubs would need something else pretty enticing to go along with him. He's kind of sitting in the same category as Matt Mervis right now, dominated AAA but no success in limited MLB time. As a 1b as well, the path to MLB relevancy is so narrow. I would think the Cubs can do better than a 1-1 Stroman/Aaranda swap on the market.

The context I'm using is my personal belief there aren't 30 better young players in the minors if I'm looking at the MiLB right now. There aren't many guys who grade out across the board as a 50-55 hit tool, 60-game power tool hitter. The question about sticking at 3b is real, and I avoid home-scouting defense (I think it's truly an impossible task for so many reasons), but after some deep dives on his offensive game, he's a legitimately excellent hitter. The swing is great, the swing decisions are great. He's short to the ball, not a lot of moving parts. and has power that plays the other way. He's changed his hand placement a bit this year; he started earlier much lower than previous seasons but has gone back up with his hands. I'm okay with his hands up, I think he gets leverage there when he stays short. I think it helps him "stretch the rubber band" so to speak, and creates power. If the Cubs get Curtis Mead on a 1 for 1 swap I wouldn't call that cheap. Based on the current landscape on how teams have handled prospects, and especially the landscape of MLB 3b...it's an overpay.

I'm not sure he's marginally better. I will be very candid; I generally don't believe much in "hot streaks". I think good games can come in bunches, and sometimes they're spread out, and that many times it's a correlation is not causation thing. Secondly, Patrick Wisdom has been an 80 wRC+ hitter for the bulk of the season; he's also a highly negative fielder (DH level at 3b over his last 2 years and getting worse). The Cubs pitched a GB heavy arm yesterday. The sample size on Mastrobuoni at 3b is very small, but has suggested he's a good defender there (+1 in 100 innings. We need more data to make any sweeping determinations there, as 100 is small sample for defensive data). There's logic to follow as to why Mastrobuoni got the start. Overall, I don't think it really matters if Wisdom or Mastrobuoni starts most nights, and if you dig back a few posts, I said exactly that, so we're in agreement. I think both are trash, neither belong on the MLB roster. I just don't think Patrick Wisdom's "hot streak" is much of a justification, however. Even if we put stock into the "hot streak" the reality is, it's always more likely to end than continue on any given night.

I was a long time mod on PSD. Over a decade...I think I've been modding the Cubs forum on PSD since...2010 or so. Under the same screen name as here. First time joining NSBB on anything more than a stop-by. I created this account a few years ago but never seriously posted here.

Man, I just posted how the Rays are a great Stroman match; they have SP depth issues, and a great infield defensively. Someone hire me for the front office in Tampa Bay... Okay, enough, of that. I'll say, I think Curtis Mead is possibly in play here. I think it's your high-end win in a trade, requires the Cubs to eat Stroman's contract, but I think he's in play with the market, where the Rays are, the fit with Stroman, and the kind of good, but not great season Mead has had. I agree, Caminero and Bradley are off the table, but I think with the real season Caminero is having, with Paredes at 3b...I think Mead is in a weird space between the two. He's blocked in LF with Arozarena, they have Ramirez at DH (sometimes Yandy). Maybe I'm just hopeful, though. (If Mead is on the table, he's easily my favorite return the Cubs could get. This includes Baltimore)

The bar is so incredibly low. Baltimore's uniforms are black with what feels like Times New Roman "BALTIMORE" on them...and the only interesting design element is inside the damn thing! What are you doing, Nike?

Gambler's Fallacy requires the event to be random. Patrick Wisdom's talent level is not random. While any PA is anecdotal, there's a reason certain statistics are more predictive and can give us insight as to how a player will likely play. The reality is, on any given day, Patrick Wisdom is likely to play to his talent level...and his talent level is that of an organizational up/down player who's capable of compiling statistics given sample sizes, but generally, isn't very good. I didn't mean to make a direct 1:1 comparison here from Wisdom to Gambler's Fallacy, only to highlight the idea that "riding the hot hand" requires the team to understand that you only win when you predict when a player will no longer be hot before they go cold. With Wisdom, it's more likely any given day, he plays to his true talent level than to be "hot".

Ugh, how I despise that Wrigleyville nonsense we wear on Fridays.

It's like a damn reunion.

If the Cubs can get Curtis Mead for Marcus Stroman, I would expect the Cubs would gladly pack Stroman's bags for him, deliver him to the airport in the nicest luxury vehicle available, and fly him first class on a boutique airline to Tampa Bay. Curtis Mead is a top-30 prospect in all of baseball with plus game power who's just struggled a bit initially in Durham. I frankly cannot imagine the Cubs getting a better return than Curtis Mead.

That is absolutely fantastic and I'm glad some things never change. It was a surprise to me when I first saw him elevate and become kind of a big Twins thing, because to me, he was always the dude who posted on the MLB PSD forum and who I played online OOTP with. On a Twins note; super excellent uniform update ya'll had. I feel like teams across sports are aiming to do exactly what you did this year; create a sort of...fauxback that looks like it fits in the overall identity without feeling overly minimalistic. Only thing I wish is that they kept the Minne and Paul logo on the sleeve (as I believe they ditched that).

I like the Twins. Are you familiar with Brandon Warne? I know he covers the Twins. He used to post with us back on PSD a while back. He was a nice guy. The Brewers...less so, but now I live in Lexington, KY, and there's zero Brewers representation around here (zero Reds representation when they aren't good too) so they've kind of fallen off my "I don't like this team" radar. I actually put up the goodbye PSD post yesterday, and even before I remembered I already had an account here, had recommended NSBB as a possible new-home! And I'll be glad to let everyone know it's a great community. I know we're all a little sad our home's for sale but this already feels real nice and welcoming and the dedicated crew we had definitely loves bickering and talking about Cub baseball.

Glad to be here! It's been nothing but welcoming, site is easy to navigate, and nostalgic with seeing old friends.