Jason Ross

The only pitcher in the MLB who;s has even so much as thought of picking up a baseball bat in the last 18 months is Shohei Ohtani, and we don't have him, so I'd assume putting them in a bunting situation would be a terrible idea and asking for failure. Bunting requires some skill, and some practice still, and throwing whatever pitcher in that situation hoping it's like riding a bike when the game is riding on that bunt, feels like a pretty hefty gamble. I'm also not sure a player like Madrigal, far more likely to put the ball on the ground, when you need a sacrifice fly (infield would be instructed to immediately look home) is a great plan, either, with runners on 2nd and 3rd. Maybe Morel wasn't the best choice either with his swing and miss, but you had a hitter who's at least geared to hitting fly balls; a ground ball on the infield is not really much of a difference than a strikeout there unless it finds a hole.

Those two plays were horrendous. I'll give them that maybe the Biloxi wind was being weird (there was a high pop the 2b seemed to really struggle with as well), but from the outside looking in...woof.

Horton struggled with consistency, but also was the recipient of horrible defense by both Nwogu and Roederer and some bad dinky hits in the 2nd. Not his best, but the line looks worse than Horton deserved.

The Biloxi stream is nearly unwatchable. Thanks for the birds eye view....

There is certainly a chance. But I think you're probably playing with a lot of extra fire, to end up with a similar outcome. Madrigal's likely to hit a ground ball over anything, right? Perhaps moreso if he's forced to swing in a hit-and-run situation than a Madrigal-choice-of-pitch. So the goal here would be to stay out of the double play, no? It's probably a decent bet that the end result is that of a 2nd-3rd-1-out situation (the same result as a bunt) as Madrigal grounds out. There's more risk/reward in play here; you risk a double play on any line drive hit at an infielder, you risk an uncompetitive pitch (more so due to Bickford's lack of strike throwing) resulting in a CS. Obviously there's reward; a ball through the infield, scores a run, maybe you get the runners over on a steal, so I won't discount it (though Candelario doesn't have the kind of track record that makes me think he's a super bet to steal third on a hit and run which is usually more delayed than a straight steal). I'm pretty 50/50 on the bunt thing, but I think I'd be pretty skeptical of a hit and run there. I'm not sure the risk outweighs that reward.

Phil Bickford's a pretty inconsistent strike throwing pitcher. He's bottom 4th percentile in the league in terms of walk rate. Madrigal does make a lot of contact and he's pretty good at handling the bat, but it very well could be an uncompetitive pitch that Madrigal is simply unable to get to. I'm not sure Bickford's a perfect pitcher to go hit and run against.

I'm not sure he's been promoted or not. Is there anything more official than the Chicago Sun Times article? Or any other source? I've twitter-seached Cade Horton and haven't seen any discussion on the topic. Because it'd be very easy to slide in an extra "A" and have it sneak by. I know I had checked the week in advance on MiLB At Bat on my phone and TN did not have any probable starters this week. Not to say it didn't change, just that I noticed they didn't have anyone listed. Iowa is also listed as TBD, but they always list TBD on the app. The Cubs are usually pretty conservative with pitchers. Giving Horton an extra day, especially when he's still being kept at specific pitch counts, seems more likely than the Cubs promoting him to AAA after 4 innings in AA. It'd be fun if its the case, but seems unlikely.

Yeah, RD Matrixes shouldn't be used as entire gospel, and should be contextual, but are over huge sample sizes and give you a really good baseline of what to generally expect; the overall change from the bunt probably isn't meaningful in and of itself. Like you said, there are other things involve. I think the overall point I'm making is that I think there's plenty of argument on both sides that there probably wasn't a clearly correct/incorrect call. All of the smaller things are good enough to maybe slightly push you one direction, or slightly pull you another, but not enough for me to think that the decision was "wrong". I also don't normally argue when the Cubs don't bunt, as stated, I think bunting is basically dumb always. But if Amaya or Madrigal (if you still PH him) hits into a double play, there would be people who'd be saying "how can you do that? Just bunt and stay out of it!" and I'd probably still have the same general feeling I have now. I'm not a Ross-defender on everything (I've had plenty to complain about), either. I just think the choice last night is probably close enough to a coin flip that I can buy either side of the debate.

Yep. I think there's a good chance we're having the same re-litigation of the situation in the event that the Cubs didn't bunt. Maybe they score, maybe they don't, but I think it's probably a near 50/50 call. Wesneski coming out to face lefties? That's kind of dumb. Bunting in the 9th? I can see the logic behind it.

I missed most of the game, but was able to jump in during the 9th inning. You can chalk me way up as "new school" when it comes to baseball strategies and we can consider "outs" to be the game clock as we can consider every team starts with 27, and when you're out of outs, it's game over. We wouldn't see an NFL team voluntarily declining time when they were losing and had the ball, and I think of giving up outs in the same, general fashion. With that said I think there are times in which bunting can make some sense (so the NFL analogy isn't meant to be a perfect one) and I think last night we can probably accept the decision to bunt vs not bunt as an example of one that had logic behind it. Using updated run matrixes, teams are expected to score 1.435 runs when there are 0 outs, and runners on first and second. Teams are expected to score 1.39 runs when runners are on second and third with 1 out. The overall difference between the two situations is pretty minimal and you're trading the fear of the double play, which is a runner on 3rd base and 2 outs (.380 runs) for the difference if you fail to score a run immediately with the first hitter after the first hitter. Full updated 2022 run scoring expectancy can be found here. Madrigal is a high GB% player, Amaya is a speed risk with a 26th percentile sprint speed. Bickford is a pretty FB heavy pitcher, so you can both argue that lessens the possibility of a double play, but also helps Morel who's a fly ball centric hitter to get the sacfly. I'm not sure I'd have called for the bunt, but I don't think the call was illogical, and it seems more of a coin-flip choice to me that didn't work. Sometimes you're just kind of damned if you do, damned if you don't, and I'm not sure there's enough faulty logic behind the bunt call that it falls under "a bad decision" and moreso falls under a "decision that just didn't work".

I've got little idea of what Matt Mervis is, but I don't think anyone has enough data to make sweeping assertions. The wRC+ and the raw results were bad, but 99 PA's is barely enough time for most statistics to stabilize let alone be large enough to be telling of a prospect's future. There's some interesting batted ball data below those results that suggest that he's better than those results. I recognize he's 25, but 25 isn't some sort of artificial "death line" of a prospect (the Cubs would have had one less all-star this year if it was). Notable players such as Max Muncy and Aaron Judge are two other names off the top of my head who couldn't establish themselves by their 25th birthday (Judge put up a super cool 62 wRC+ in his first 96 PA's), so it *can* be done (that's not saying Matt Mervis is either player, only that there's no expiration date of 25). And while I'd rather prospects come up younger. Matt Mervis has a very unique route to the MLB; having to deal with losing a year of development due to covid, and switching positions. This isn't a 25 year old who stagnated in AA for 3+ years only to explode, he took 2 years to reach the MLB. We can't put everyone in a neat little box. His industry ranking means little to me either; 1b-only prospects just don't really appear on top-100 lists because of how hard it is to break into the league as a 1b (I.E. see Matt Mervis) and how cautious many are with rocket ship like prospects. I know FG has him ranked 44th in the organization right now, but that's some kind of hot-take. Matt Mervis both deserved-a-larger-than-he-got-99 PA sample size, and deserves another shot in the MLB. Will it happen in Chicago? Not in 2023 with their playoff push (and at this point, the Cubs are finally in the "right" in not playing him as they have capable MLB'ers in front versus guys like Eric Hosmer). In 2024? I'm not sure, honestly. They don't have anyone on the roster right now, but a Bellinger contract, or a trade, or something could easily move him into limbo. If I were guessing, Matt Mervis' chances right now will happen with one of the other 29 organizations. I also wouldn't be surprised at all to see him establish himself.. In the same vein, perhaps his struggles against, specifically sliders, points to a fatal flaw he cannot overcome (prospects fail more often than they succeed). I think the upside on Mervis is more than worth someone giving him some rope, however.

That's my goal! Weekly recaps (some may be quicker than others depending on the time of year; I teach middle school for a real world job so there are times I get a little busier), monthly awards, my top-X prospects pre-season and post-season, and some random musings here or there. I'm excited to keep this up.

Not a great 1st from Smyly tonight. Hopefully Killian can give us some legs when we finally make the shift between the two tonight.

With the trade deadline getting the bulk of the attention last week and the Cubs excellent play at the highest level, it would be hard to blame anyone for missing the action down on the farm, but some pretty good things happened, Image courtesy of © Lily Smith/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK We saw a few important promotions and some excellent play, so let’s recap a few of the highlights and lowlights of noticeable Cub prospects during the first month of August: Low A: Myrtle Beach Pelicans (2-4) Rough week for the Pelicans, dropping 4 of 6 on the week, and offensively, it wasn’t much fun for the big-named prospects. Fresh off a great week, Jefferson Rojas didn’t get it going, striking out 27% of the time and picking up only three hits in 22 at-bats. The ups and the downs will come with Rojas, who is just a baby; be patient. Rojas’ week was good compared to Hernandez, who went hitless in 18 at-bats himself. The shining light down in South Carolina was Pedro Ramirez, a prospect who came into the season with a lot of interest but hasn’t really gotten going yet. Ramirez picked up six hits (all singles, sadly) while only striking out once. Moving to the pitching side of things, Jackson Ferris absolutely shoved on the mound in his one appearance, striking out 9 of the 11 hitters he faced. I’d love to see his pitch count moved up a little more, but the Cubs do a great job of managing pitcher injuries, so who am I to critique? Drew Gray continues his return season with some up-and-down wildness; Gray struck out five but had a whopping three wild pitches, despite only walking 1. That’s okay for Gray; he’s young and rebounding from a TJS. High-A: South Bend Cubs (3-2) The South Bend Cubs finished the week with a winning record, but even more importantly, a handful of new players joined the roster from the 2023 draft, notably Matt Shaw (1st round) and Josh Rivera (3rd round). Rivera finished the week 9-28, hitting his first professional HR and having an OBP touching .400. Matt Shaw posted an impressive .481 OBP with eight hits, hitting a triple as his first professional hit outside of the ACL. Not to be outdone by the new players, Triantos hit a HR and posted a strong .890 OPS. Sadly, Ballesteros didn’t have a huge week, posting a sub .700 OPS, but not everything can be perfect, can it? Kevin Alcanrata remains out; however, has been working in Arizona rehabbing and should be back shortly. In a nice bounce back, Luis Devers started to look like the 2022 version of Devers, as he struck out 14 over 10IP, walking only one and not surrendering a single run. Recently promoted Brady McCullough had a second rough start, throwing 40 of 71 pitches for strikes, only generating 3 Ks in 4 IP while walking two and giving up 3. Michael Arias went this week as well and was both equally electric (6 strikeouts in 5 IP) while being a little erratic walking 3. AA: Tennessee Smokies (4-2) A really big week for Tennessee as we saw the graduations of Pete Crow Armstrong and Luke Little. Owen Caissie, fresh off being named my hitter of the month, decided to continue to go bananas, picking up four extra-base hits, walking five times, and only striking out five times…we’re not there yet, but he’s not far from forcing the issue and getting a promotion himself. Roderer continued having a great season. Picking up 6 hits himself. Unlike Caissie, I feel Roederer won’t touch AAA this season. I don’t think this because he’s incapable, but because he’s Rule 5 eligible. If they keep him away from AAA, it’s less likely a team will select him and keep him on an active-26 man all season. With the Cubs' 40-man situation, I don’t think they’ll be able to save him that way, so this provides an alternate way they can keep him in the organization. BJ Murray (.214 average, seven walks, five strikeouts) had a decent walk, and Haydn McGeary (.263 average, one walk, eight strikeouts, two home runs) had decent weeks highlighted with a few warts. Pitching-wise, Kohl Franklin struggled a bit with walks but managed to strike out seven over 4.1 despite the control issues. Cade Horton made a scintillating premiere in AA, striking out six over 4 IP, allowing no walks and no runs himself. Horton continues to work with his third and fourth pitches, the changeup being a pitch he’s using to keep LHH guessing and working on shaping his curveball and slider. Eduarniel Nunez, fresh off NSBB MiLB RP of the month honors, settled in a bit better, giving up no runs over two appearances. AAA: Iowa Cubs (1-5) Welcome to Iowa, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Luke Little! Before diving into the week, I think both players have a chance to see time with the Cubs in the coming two months. In terms of on-field production, PCA hit his first AAA home run, though he struggled overall, striking out eight times over the course over the week; these are normal struggles for a young player at a new level. Much like PCA, Little struggled in his debut, striking out 3, however, walking two and surrendering two runs. Much like PCA, I remain unfazed; he’s a young pitcher who has the kind of stuff that when it clicks, it clicks. Perlaza came back down to earth, as he really struggled with contact, striking out over 40% of the time over his last six games. Iowa is our first stop struggling with a few injury concerns. Ben Brown was recently placed on the 10-day-IL. Initial reaction was a bit scary, but according to Sahdev Sharma of The Athletic, it appears to be a relatively minor lat issue that shouldn’t cost him much time (this is a huge relief). Jordan Wicks, rumored to be skipping a start, went five innings, striking out three and walking 2. Wicks’ strikeout numbers are below his K numbers in AA, but he’s no longer using the pre-tacked ball in Iowa. Hi, sGB% is way up, and if he’s going to be a 45%+ GB%, he’s going to be very tough. Caleb Killian was reaching 97 and 98 mph consistently on the gun, increasing his strikeouts and looking more like the guy Killian was last April and May and less like the Killian we’ve seen in the last year. He could be in line for a few starts in Chicago with Stroman’s injury. View full article

Sadly had to miss today for my own baseball game, but caught the last 3 innings on the radio and the 9th on TV. Great job. Tons of fun. Team really played tough this weekend.

Thank you guys for the love! I really appreciate it.

As we conclude our look at the top Cubs performers in July, it's not just about the winners of these categories, but about recognizing the players who finished second and third and honorable mention because they deserve it too. One of the really fun things about doing these types of lists for minor leaguers is the variety. There are several names on this that are familiar, the top 20 prospect guys. But maybe there are a few names that you didn't recognize, or didn't know as much about. Hopefully this will help you get to know them a little better too. Also, if you missed the previous minor league awards, be sure to check out the Cubs Minor League Starting Pitcher and Relief Pitcher of the Month of July. You can also read the July Hitter of the Month and Pitcher of the Month articles if you missed those. Let's get to those hitting prospects, starting with a few Honorable Mentions. Honorable Mentions Kevin Alcantara: (South Bend, A, CF) 219 wRC+, 22.9% K%, 12.5% BB%, 2 HR, 5 2B Sadly, Alcantara pulled up with a calf strain on July 19th because had this been his full-month’s line, he just may have been in the argument for the hitter of the month. Alcantara started slow this year, really struggling with over-aggressive swing choices and a bit of a rough plate approach since moving up to High-A, but there seems to be some real movement in that category. He’s reached base at least once every game since June 16th, and I think we’re on the verge of a breakout (hopefully the small injury doesn’t set that breakout back). Matt Mervis (Iowa, AAA, 1b) 134 wRC+, 24.8% K%, 16.8% BB%, 3 HR, 5 2B Mervis had a really nice month in Iowa, but it’s pretty ho-hum, too, for a player who’s probably too good for the level. He’s been said to be working on small mechanical changes, likely to get the ball in the air a bit more than he showed the ability to do in his first run. I still think there’s a starting first baseman here, and I still think he deserves a shot at the MLB. Whether or not that comes in Chicago is questionable, but he’s trying to force the issue and that’s good. Yonathon Perlaza (Iowa, AAA, RF/LF): 148 wRC+, 22.4% K%, 15.3% BB%, 5HR, 2 2Bs Perlaza wins some months, but sadly misses out on the top-5 this one. Pretty unfair, however, nothing anyone else can do can make me not notice what Perlaza is doing. There is considerably more violence in his swing than ever before, and especially when hitting LH, Perlaza is forcing everyone to take notice. If there’s one downside of the Cubs winning, it’s that we may not get a proper look at Perlaza entering 2024, and with needing to add him to the 40-man roster or be exposed in the Rule 5 draft (in which I’d guess it’d be very likely he’ll be picked), this causes some questions for the future. And now let's jump into the Top 5 Cubs Minor League Hitters in July: Number 5 : BJ Murray (Tennessee, AA, 3B) 152 wRC+, 21.4% K%, 16.7% BB%, 5 HR, 2B What a find Murray was for the Cubs on Day 3 of the 2021 draft. Murray rounds out yet another Tennessee hitter here, and has me really reconsidering what I think his upside is down the road. He’s showing a really strong ability to put damage onto the baseball, and we’re seeing more and more home runs out of him (his five this month match his entire total in South Bend, in 224 PA’s). Where he lands defensively is still up in the air, as he’s not considered a particularly strong third baseman, and he’s likely too squatty to play first base, but for now, I’m keen to let BJ keep hitting and forcing the issue. Number 4: Cole Roederer (Tennessee, AA, OF) 206 wRC+, 20.3% K%, 20.3% BB%, 6HR, 3 3 2B Cole Roederer? Cole freaking Roederer? I honestly didn’t think I’d ever get to type his name on a list like this, but what a July! I’m going to give him a little flak for being off the prospect radar for a bit, and it not being his first rodeo in AA, but please don’t let that take away from the monster month the guy has had. He’s had a beautiful swing but had so many darn injuries. I’m so happy to see him succeeding. His path to Wrigley is probably tough, but I think he’ll get a shot somewhere. He’ll be Rule 5 eligible like Perlaza, so we’ll see where that is. I’m rooting for him. He’s really stuck it out. Number 3: Moises Ballesteros (South Bend, A): 171 wRC+, 21% K%, 13.6% BB%, 1HR, 8 BB Is Ballesteros a catcher? Who cares right now when you have a month like this? The wRC+ is mammoth, the K% is wonderful. He’s in third because we just aren’t seeing the home run power yet (though the XBH are plentiful and with age those doubles will become HR’s more frequent). Ballesteros is showing more and more pull-side ability with his swing. I love how good his command of the strike zone has become. We just don’t see kids of his age with this ability to command the zone that often. I am so impressed. Even if Ballesteros has to be a DH down the road, the bat can play. Number 2: Pete Crow-Armstrong (Tennessee, AA, CF): 162 wRC+, 23.5%, 11.5% BB%, 5 HR, 8 2Bs, 1 3B These numbers on the surface are pretty amazing, but they’re not the sole reason I’m picking him as the second-best hitter this month. Digging in deeper, I want to focus on the numbers PCA has posted after July 6th. While July 6th feels like it’s an example of playing with arbitrary endpoints, I’d argue this is a different case. It was after July 6th that the Southern League, Tennessee’s division of minor-league baseball, switched to a normally-tacked baseball. Prior to this change, Tennessee’s baseballs were causing quite the stir; league K% was up over 3% over any other MiLB league and this was largely due to the new pre-tacked ball the MLB was trying out giving pitchers a significant advantage. So why the big deal? From July 14th through the end of the month, PCA posted a whopping 218 wRC+, a K% down to 19.6 %, a walk rate of 14.3% and hit 11 extra base hits (out of his total of 14). Someone earned his promotion. Number 1: Owen Caissie (Tennessee, AA, RF) 187 wRC+, 25.5% K%, 18.4% BB%, 5HR, 8 2B For the month of July, Owen Caissie posted a mammoth 187 wRC and I’d argue that’s not the most impressive thing Caissie accomplished this month. If not the sterling wRC+, why is Caissie winning the award this month? The answer for me is simple… it was watching him drop his K% over the month to 25.5%. The improvement alone feels like a reason to name him the winner as he’s worked incredibly hard on his glaring weakness, and we’re starting to reap the rewards of that hard work. Owen Caissie will always be a higher-strikeout player, but for me, his “goldilocks” zone sits somewhere between 25% and 27% He’s incredibly disciplined as a hitter, and with the power, he’ll outpace that kind of K-rate. If he can keep his strikeouts somewhere around there, I think he’s got true “impact bat” ability and can stray away from being a Joey Gallo-esque power-K machine. His month was also bolstered by a walk rate over 18% and 13 extra base hits. Add in that he just became legally able to buy a drink (and remains one of the youngest AA hitters in all of baseball), and Caissie is absolutely flying right now. What are your thoughts on our choice for Cubs Minor League Hitter of the Month for July? How would you rank them? View full article

3rd best fWAR, top-5 K/9, 5th in xFIP.

Woof. Zone is huge today.

Yeah, I don't think he'll necessarily jump AAA, but I think given that he's left handed, he's really only competing with Bailey Horn. Killian probably is more of a SP and will get a look in a rotation spot if they need it, and Clarke is fine himself, but being RH might change the discussion. The walks are definitely the question, but with RP's there's more of a tendency to allow a speed-run too. You just can't develop 99mph from the left side and could see the Cubs looking at that as a weapon.

That's where I was these last 4 games. I live 90 minutes south of Cincinnati, and no longer pay for cable, so I was stuck on some of online streaming sites....(which....if you'd like...feel free to ask....with a good popup blocker you'll be fine to watch on the computer)

Really impressive that the Cubs have that many guys who could pop up on the top-100. Even more impressive to remember this as well: 1. 6 of those players (Horton, Shaw, Triantos, Ferris, Rojas, Ballesteros) were drafted or signed directly by the Cubs in IFA. Only one of those players (Horton) was a top-10 draft pick, and he was considered by many to be a "reach" and underslotted. 2. PCA and Caissie while drafted by other organizations only played a combined 6 games with other teams (all PCA, Caissie never recorded a single professional PA in SD). Neither were top-10 picks and Caissie wasn't even a 1st round pick. 3. Kevin Alcantara never played above the Complex league with the Yankees 4. Ben Brown was the only player who had logged a single game above A ball, and even he was not considered to be an industry-standard top-pitching prospect with Philadelphia All of this goes to highlight the fantastic job the Cubs have done scouting and developing prospects.

He mowed down the side the other night too. 18 pitches, 12 strikes, 3 K's. I think we'll see him throw innings in Chicago in the next two months.