Jason Ross

The Rockies suck, but this is also the best version of Cade Horton tonight. A little unlucky to give up a run last inning but the placement on the slider/fastball is pretty good tonight.

At some point we have to accept that it may not be a Cub decision in whether or not they sign David Robertson and that he too has agency. He hasn't announced a retirement, but considering there are 30 teams and even good ones have BP issues...its' weird he hasn't signed anywhere and it feels more than just the Cubs refusing to pick up a phone. As well, we're getting to a point of the year where you wonder what the best case scenario is. He's missed ST and two months of the year. How long do we expect a 40-year-old to come online? In July? How long does that give him to really help the BP? Is he going to struggle for 1/3rd of his time? I'm not saying it's not worthwhile to check if it's possible, but I think the end result is getting to a stage where "what's the best case scenario?" here probably has to be asked a bit.

I'm convinced I'd have a 100 wRC+ if I started for the Cubs at catcher this year. Only because there's magic at that position.

Ish? They added Kriske when they DFA'd Merryweather. But Thaw is correct, the 40 is currently at 39. So open spot remains.

I don't have data behind it, but I saw a tweet last night talking about how it appeared they were up league wide this year,

Image courtesy of © Allan Henry-Imagn Images On the surface, 2019 might not feel that long ago, but especially for baseball, six years is a very long time. The only two players who appeared on the Cubs' 2019 roster who even remain with the organization are Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner. Many of the players have long since retired from baseball entirely, such as Jon Lester. Jonathon Lucroy, Mark Zagunis, and Cole Hamels. You probably forgot that Carlos Gonzalez took 40 at-bats with that team... I know I did. It's important to remember how long ago that is when we remember that the 2019 draft saw the Cubs select an infielder from UCLA named Chase Strumpf 64th overall. A trip down memory lane to the summer of 2019 reminds us just what kind of player the Cubs were hoping they had gotten with that selection. At the time of the draft, Strumpf was considered a top-50 prospect on the big board by many outlets. Baseball America ranked him #42 on their board and praised his strikeout-to-walk ratio, bat-to-ball skills, and knowledge of the strike zone in general. They saw him as a "regular second baseman" at the next level. The Cubs looked to have gotten a bit of a steal when they selected their man out of Southern California, if we go by the BA big board. Six years, however, is a long time, and that scouting report would quickly become outdated. Strumpf hasn't had a particularly smooth go of it since draft day. There have certainly been flashes and some runs of quality play, but his prospect status has faded considerably over that time span. The last time Baseball America had the former Bruin ranked as a top-30 organizational prospect was two years ago, when he was ranked 24th. In this updated report, they continued to praise his strike-zone awareness, but a flaw had appeared; it seems they were off on his bat-to-ball skills, as they now mention his propensity to swing and miss within the zone. This issue would continue to snowball as the infielder saw his K% balloon to 34.5% in Triple-A during his 2024 season. He would hit for power between the swings and the misses, but that tendency was holding him back. Chase Strumpfs walk-off home run 07062024 MLBcom.mp4 However, this isn't about the past; it's about the present, and this year, Chase Strumpf has seemingly made some progress. The now-27-year-old has had a resurgent year with the I-Cubs, posting a .260/.359/.560 line, which is 32% better than the league average. His K% has dropped to 28.2%, the lowest it's been since Strumpf's time in Tennessee during the 2021 campaign, while maintaining a strong 13.7% walk rate. If there's one thing the initial scouting report got right, it's that the kid takes his walks. Digging into the Statcast profile for Strumpf also highlights positives; Strumpf hits the ball extremely hard when he makes contact. His 94th-percentile ranking in both hard-hit% and barrel% highlights the damage he's doing when his bat connects. He's also pulling the baseball well, and his xData suggests that this isn't smoke and mirrors, and that the second-round selection is earning his outcomes. There is one glaring issue still: his bat-to-ball skills remain an issue, as evidenced by his high whiff rate and low zone-contact rate. It's been two years, but BA's scouting report about his contact ability still rings true. It puts a bit of a damper on the results he's showing; he hits the ball hard, but he just doesn't hit it often enough As a 24-year-old making his Triple-A debut, you could believe he'd progress and learn, but as a 27-year-old repeater (this is his third go at Triple-A) this becomes more concerning and a larger red-flag overall. When examining Chase Strumpf's career, his batted ball profile, results, and Statcast page, I can't help but think of a former Cub third baseman from recent memory: Patrick Wisdom, because the parallels between the two seem fairly deep. Wisdom was the 51st overall pick in the 2012 draft by the St. Louis Cardinals. In his final scouting report, Baseball America highlighted Wisdom's plus power but noted his struggles with contact in the zone, specifically against breaking pitches. The third baseman struggled to make contact at the Triple-A level until his age-27 season, when his strikeout rate (in his fourth time through the level) fell to 27.6%. If you think the two stories are similar, this is only the tip of the iceberg. When Wisdom was given a chance with the Cubs, he had a pretty distinctive profile; he would rank very high in things such as his hard-hit%, his barrel%, and his exit velocities. Where Wisdom would always struggle, as seen in his whiff%, zone-contact%, and this would reflect in strikeout rates that ranged from around 33-40% yearly. Wisdom wasn't a star player, but was a useful second division starter, and was able to compile four total fWAR with a 105 wRC+ in just under 1,500 MLB plate appearances. Below, you can see his 2023 Statcast page; it's quite reminiscent of Strumpf's 2025 Triple-A page, isn't it? Wisdom made a lot of hard contact, didn't chase a ton, but struggled with in-zone contact, and his strikeout rate suffered as a result. I don't think that Chase Strumpf has much of a path with the Chicago Cubs, much like Patrick Wisdom didn't have a path with either the Cardinals or the Rangers. Both teams had more invested in other prospects whom they valued more than a 27-year-old Patrick Wisdom, and because of that, they eventually let him sign a minor-league contract with the Cubs in 2020. Chase, like Wisdom, was once-upon-a-time, is probably stuck behind multiple prospects right now at both third base and second base who are thought of more highly than he is. The reality is that Matt Shaw, Jonathon Long, and James Triantos are far more likely to get looks above him right now. Nipping on Strumfps' heels are prospects like Cristian Hernandez and Jefferson Rojas, who could be options at his position as well, so this isn't a short-term issue for him within the Cubs organization; he's going to get squeezed out a bit. Where the future lies for the Cubs' former second-round pick is likely with another organization. He probably doesn't have significant value in a trade, but he could be a sneaky-good, throw-in for a team at the deadline. He won't headline any trade, nor would his inclusion make or break any negotiations, but if I were a team that wasn't particularly flush with MLB talent currently, I'd like to have Strumpf as that "third guy" in a trade with the Cubs. At that point, you wouldn't have to expect much from the infielder, but if you can squeeze some MLB value out of him like the Cubs did with Wisdom, that's better than most throw-ins. And in that vein, I can see Strumpf having an MLB career. It's probably not going to come with this organization, but I think there's a Patrick-Wisdom-like career out there for Chase to grab if the right conditions are met, and that certainly isn't nothing. It's quite commendable for someone who, just a few months ago, looked entirely cooked in that regard. What do you think about Chase Strumpf? Do you think he's earned a shot with the Cubs? Do you think it will have to happen with another organization? Let us know in the comment section below! View full article

Best guess: Cosgrove, DFA. Figure he's behind both Thielbar and Pomeranz at the MLB level for LHP and Luke Little has been pretty dominant recently.

Based it on his defense. Hes just not ready to be an MLB catcher. His bat is ready. His glove is not. I was hoping to be wrong and they thought it was ready, but this confirms that.

Probably not. Id put heavy money its Reese McGuire. Ballesteros is starting tonight at DH for Iowa. They're in Columbus so they're close but hed be sitting if he was coming up, IMO. I would expect a heavier Carson Kelly dose than we have seen, switching from the flip-flop starts to like a 2-on one-off (Reese starts) situation.

Kikuchi has taken a massive step back. His ERA is suppressing how much of a step back he's made. The Cubs should not want that contract.

Look at him going 90! This feels reminiscent of how they handled Wiggins last start in SB, too. I wouldn't be surprised if it was his last start before moving to Knoxville.

Probably it for Gallagher. Over 80 pitches today. 8 Ks. Wish I had more consistent velo readings and Statcast on him. His arm angle is way over the top. Thats got to add some IVB to his pitch. Probably a fastball that plays up in the zone well to help limit barrels.

His scouring report out of college was consistent 88-90 and touches of 93. Always had good movement on his stuff. If he can be consistent 93mph and touching 95, that'd be some awesome development. Im going to start adding him to a name of must watch arms. Especially with the Mule knock.

Hey, that Matt Shaw guy ain't half bad.

Aloy remains a heavy favorite of mine in this draft, especially if the Cubs go the collegiate-bat-route. I think I've kind of latched on to a Steele Hall type in that spot as well, but they're probably 1a and 1b on the list. McKenzie would be interesting. I know the velo isn't huge right now, but the Cubs have been solid at two things: making due with low-velocity four-seams and adding velocity to prospects, so either profile could work here.

We did the house-buying thing last year (thankfully we were coming from renting so we didn't have to handle a sale on top of it all). Absolutely no fun. Think I'll just die in this house.

I thought the same thing (though for me, it's "drive up"). Convinced the partner to do a Sunday day-trip and then hit Jungle Jim's on the way back.

I have probably not been as excited for a Cubs pitching prospect's debut as I was for Cade Horton's in a long time. The Cubs have had other pitching prospects make their debuts between Mark Prior and Horton, including some very recently (such as Adbert Alzolay and Justin Steele), but none have captured me in the same way, and I doubt many have captured Cubs fans' imaginations the same way, in general. After the initial excitement has worn off, and we're three starts into his career, we can begin to take stock of what the rookie has been able to do well, and where he can continue to refine his game. The thing Horton has done best so far is limit walks, which is great for a young pitcher. Horton has walked just three hitters so far in his big-league career. This is awesome, but not entirely unexpected; I've written in the past about how Horton attacks hitters, often by pumping strikes early, and often within the zone. This has generally carried over to the highest level. Horton has thrown a first-pitch strike to 61.9% of hitters, which puts him in decent company league-wide. He gets to strike one more often than Max Fried, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Hicks, and Garrett Crochet. This allows Horton to command early count leverage, which has helped to keep his walk total low. His focus is keeping guys off the bases. A counterpoint to this, however, is that Horton's still struggling with both control and command. For our purposes today, I'm going to define control as a pitcher's general ability to throw strikes, and command as their ability to locate strikes within the zone. You may have your own definitions of these terms, but it's how I'm going to use them, and I think it's important I lay that out. First, while Horton's getting strike one well, he's struggling to throw strikes thereafter—specifically, with his slider. He's thrown under 50% of all of his pitches in the zone, with his slider being the biggest culprit. There's no question, his slider is his best pitch, but right now, he's not really controlling that pitch well. Here are two charts. The first is where his pitches are located in general, and the second shows where Horton generates whiffs. That box at the bottom right is where the slider tends to be thrown. It's also where he's thrown the most pitches overall. It's not shocking that Horton is generating a lot of whiffs in the zone he's pitching the most often in. But he's leaving a lot of meat on the bone with where he's throwing his slider, because while he generates a good amount of whiff in that zone, that number is likely held back by how many wasteful pitches (or pitches so far off the zone one cannot expect a hitter to realistically swing at them) he has. The next two images help to highlight this issue. The chart on the left shows his general swing rate, and on the right is a breakdown of pitches from his most recent start against Miami. Pay attention to the dots in gold, as these represent the slider, and note how many are very far outside of the strike zone. Non-competitive pitches allow hitters to stay in the at-bat; they're easy takes. I'll use an example from his start against the Chicago White Sox. Horton was up in the count 1-2 against White Sox hitter Brooks Baldwin. He had Baldwin on the ropes, having gone fastball-fastball-fastball to start, with the second strike being a 95-mph heater at the knees. If Horton buried the slider below the zone, but in an area that forced a swing, it would have been an easy punchout for the rookie. Instead, Horton overthrew the breaking ball (Savant has it as a curveball, but I think it's a slider that it's confusing based on the movement profile). Baldwin easily spat on the pitch. This would eventually not be an issue, as the White Sox hitter grounded out one pitch later, but these types of things highlight what's holding Horton back. With better control of the slider, he gets a punchout here. MTZxTVJfWGw0TUFRPT1fQUFZRlZRWURCQWNBWFZjSEJ3QUhWVklBQUZrSEJRY0FBUUVGQTFWWFZWQlFCbE5T.mp4 Horton hasn't just struggled with put-away pitches, but also with commanding his fastball in the zone. I've written how Horton tends to bully hitters in the zone, but one thing he's probably gotten away with too long is just bullying hitters with mediocre fastball placement. In Triple A, his unique heater can dominate. Against the best of the best, you have to demonstrate finer execution. Here's another mistake from Horton, a center-cut fastball to Miguel Vargas. This is just not where that fastball needs to be, particularly given how Horton's fastball works, and Vargas did what big-league hitters do to badly located fastballs: he hit it a long way. This is fixable, and a point of polish that needs to be addressed at some point. For Horton, the natural movement of his fastball should help inform him how to make that happen. MTZxTVJfWGw0TUFRPT1fQXdjSFVGWURVZ3NBQ1FjR0FnQUhCQUZSQUZoUVVRTUFCUVlEQ1ZjQkJBWUhCRkFI.mp4 Horton's fastball shape is unusual, in that it has a lot of cutting action. His pitch naturally moves to the glove side, or in a right-handed hitter's case away from them. To a lefty, Horton's heater hums toward their hands. In the above video, Horton's movement was working against him. Notice where Miguel Amaya wanted it, and where it actually went. As Horton missed by a matter of inches, his fastball cut into the middle of the zone, and Vargas was able to crush it. It's an issue. but fixable—and using that shape is the answer. The fix is to start by moving that location away from a righty, and inside to a LHH. By starting that pitch on the outer third to a hitter like Vargas, two things would happen: It's going to help set up his slider, by creating a stronger connection between fastball location and slider location and forcing a later decision point for a hitter. More importantly, however, it's going to create a situation where if Horton misses by two inches, it rides out of the zone, harmlessly, for a ball, instead of into the middle of the plate (like the example in the video above). The same will happen for a lefty batter; he'll be able to crash the hands of the hitter and miss inside, as opposed to leaking back over the middle. A great place to look how to do this is Justin Steele, who uses a cut fastball himself. Steele doesn't have a third pitch, which I'll get to in a moment, but is able to use this same philosophy to his advantage. Below, you'll see Horton's cut-fastball location against both righties and lefties, with Steele's cut-fastball placement superimposed on them (these have been mirrored across the axis to account for the handedness of each pitcher). Against same-handed batters (the lefthand image), the heat maps are basically the same shape and in the same place. Against opposite-handed ones, though, Horton is working away, whereas Steele's approach is to use the glove side of the plate even when that means coming inside. The veteran lefty is great at getting that cut fastball to miss the middle of the plate, and he's been adept at limiting hard contact and home runs because of it. So what if the rookie emulated this—just at 95-97 mph, as opposed to 91-93? That would be a pretty devastating change, and that's before we add in a third pitch that Steele doesn't have in his arsenal. It's inches, but they're meaningful inches. I don't want to make it sound all doom-and-gloom. Horton is a rookie, and rookies are imperfect beings who need to learn. The positive is that Horton clearly wants to learn, and is willing to make changes. I harped a bit on Horton's slider placement during his last start, but I want to instead heap praise in another way during that same appearance: his changeup was lovely. This is an important pitch for a heavy fastball-slider pitcher, as it will allow him to control left-handed hitters in a way that other fastball-slider types (such as Alzolay or Hayden Wesneski) were unable to do. It's even a pitch Steele doesn't really have, because if you supinate (turn the forearm and hand inward) as Steele and Horton do to generate their cutting heaters and their sliders, it can be hard to pronate (turning the hand outward) enough to create a usable cambio. Horton threw the changeup a whopping 18 times on Wednesday (17 against aforementioned left-handed hitters), generating 11 swings and eight whiffs. For Horton to lean on the changeup on a day his slider wasn't useful and his fastball placement was mediocre was great to see. This is especially important against a lineup with a lot of left-handed hitters, and a team in the Marlins who is a pretty good team against fastballs (13th in baseball in Batter Run Value/100 on the pitch). It was a good game plan from the rookie, especially because it seemed to require an adjustment after he got hit hard in the first inning. This is a big step up from just a few starts ago. Horton's debut saw him throw just one changeup, to Juan Soto in a 3-2 count (resulting in a strikeout), despite the Mets having a handful of lefties: Soto, but also Francisco Lindor and Brett Baty (who homered off of him, on a hagning slider). This is awesome development and trust in a newer pitch. akQ5ZVpfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X0FRWlNBVmNFVlFJQVdWc0dWQUFIQXdVRUFBQUhWd01BVjF3QVZGQUhCRllBVkFWVw==.mp4 I'm going to leave everyone with what I think is the best version of a Cade Horton slider, and what I think he can become if he dials in just a little more. Horton was facing Luis Robert Jr early in the game against the White Sox. He'd hang a pitch to Vargas one hitter later, but don't let that cloud your vision on the pitch I'm about to show. The Cubs rookie had the White Sox center fielder in a 2-2 count. He'd just missed on a slider that was one of those "waste" pitches I showed earlier; it was too far off the corner. Horton came back with the same pitch, but this time, it was just a bit better. It was an inch or so higher, and more centered over the plate. Robert swung over it, and the rookie got a well-deserved punchout. That's the pitch Horton had hoped to throw to Baldwin in the example I had above, and he got it here. That's the best version of the Horton slider. MTZxTVJfWGw0TUFRPT1fQVFKWEFWTUZYMWNBRGxFTFZnQUhVbFVIQUFOUlV3VUFDd01HVkZWVUJnQldWZ1pX.mp4 If Horton can find that pitch just a little more often, adapt his fastball location, and continue to trust the changeup like he did on Wednesday, the Cubs have a star on their hands. That pitch against Robert was unhittable, and it looked just enough like a Horton fastball that he'll consistently generate chase on that pitch. I'll harken back to something I talked about with Matt Shaw: this is literally a game of inches. Horton isn't miles off from being the pitcher we want him to be; he's just inches off. He's just inches from finding his fastball command, and just inches from finding the right control with his slider. He's believing in the changeup more and more. Once he finds those inches, Horton has everything he needs to be an anchor in the rotation. With Shota Imanaga out "well into June", as Counsell put it, Horton will have a few more starts to find those inches with the Cubs—and if he does, a few hundred more starts after that. What have you thought about Cade Horton's starts so far? Are you encouraged? Impressed? Do you think these changes would make a difference? Let us know in the comments below. View full article

Even more so, I can't find any system that thinks Sugano has really great stuff. BP's systems both think his stuff is real-real mediocre to poor, and Stuff+ agrees. His 13.8 K% is nearly unsustainably low and he's running an 87.5% LOB%. I guess "never say never" but this dude feels like there's no chance he's a FIP beater and is running some combination of "luck" and "never seen him before" to get some good ERA results up front.

I think he's in a weird goldilocks zone currently; he's both overrated by a certain faction and underrated by others, something we don't really see. And no shade thrown to anyone here necessarily, this is just a general concept I see when I peruse the online baseball spheres. I think he's a good prospect. There's enough interesting there with the bat that he's certainly an MLB-ceiling type. But I also think there's a bit of a "shiny new toy" aspect of Long in that he's someone many people haven't followed for a while so he's a fun addition currently and he's getting a bit of extra hype. The reality is that currently, he's a 1b/DH type who doesn't hit a lot of HR's. It's not an impossible landing area, Nathaniel Lowe hit 16 home runs last year as a 1b and was really good, but it's a more difficult one to find...you've gotta do a lot of the other things really well. Maybe he can eek out some 3b value, but I'm skeptical. I also find him underrated by the industry as a whole. He's easy to sleep on; lack of draft pedigree, not a big-name school, and with a bunch of other super fun prospects, the reality of prospect writing is that a Long goes under valued for that reason. I don't like accusing anyone specifically, but I do think there's an aspect of prospect ranking that either, consciously or subconsciously comes back to a "do we have too many of TEAM X's prospects on our list?" thought process and I think that hurts Johnny here a bit. So I'd say my excitement is high, but capped. I don't think he's a better prospect than Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcantara, or Moises Ballesteros; he's a tier below. But he's probably a tier above, say, Ben Cowles and Christian Franklin. Maybe he's in that James Triantos area where they do enough well with the bat that they'll likely be an MLB player, but they might not ever hit enough or play defense at a premium enough position to warrant being an MLB starter.

I think we have to accept this is *probably* just what Moises Ballesteros looks like. He's been in the Cubs system since signing in 2021, so were going on four years and I doubt the Cubs haven't worked on doing to the best they can. I also suspect Ballesteros does the best he can, or at least, without knowing him, don't want to accuse him of not, ya know? He's slimmed down some. This is probably an "is what it is" situation. As well, many people can look one way on the outside, but still be fairly ripped. I've never see him without a shirt on, and it could be that his shape hides the progress.

Yep! It's a normal learning curve for players of his ilk. Matt Shaw and Pete Crow-Armstrong are in a similar "high-swing-high contact" build (different enough that they're not 1:1. butt they're in that same area, IMO) as is Nico Hoerner. It's a cool skillset to have for sure! But you always want to find a way to play within yourself.