Outshined_One

Bit of a fluff piece, but a good read. Thanks for posting it!

It might be a little more realistic to make the judgement on the 2004 draft. 2005 was too recent to get a solid understanding of the winners and losers. I like this idea. I've been meaning to find something to use as an excuse to procrastinate, so I'll try whipping something up tonight.

I'm guessing Nomar doesn't count?

When it comes to pitching, the Cubs have shown a good ability to scout, handle, and develop guys. I don't know why they've done as good of a job as they have with it, but I tend not to question their decisions. Yeah, sometimes they blow it with some guys. But other times, it works out quite well. Take Sean Gallagher last year, for example, who jumped straight from Mesa to Peoria and had a spectacular season. With some guys, it's better to give them a challenge than play it safe. If the Cubs think that Veal would respond better by starting at Daytona than starting at Peoria, then I'll trust their judgment on it.

I'm not the only one who sees this as posturing done by a NY-area rag to increase circulation and attention, am I? You just know that Mets and Yankees fans are drooling over the idea of picking up Miggy. Then again, fans of pretty much every team would love to have him. I'm not buying the idea. Since the Marlins are trying to move, they'd be smart to hang onto their young talent while it's cheap in order to puff up the perceived value of the franchise along with creating fan interest. Granted, they could probably have their pick of the best prospects and overall players in baseball if they were to trade him (knowing the Marlins, it'd be prospects). However, prospects don't mean much when you're trying to get a fanbase excited about your team.

I tend to favor starting pitching in Roto Leagues. Relievers tend to be a bit more shaky in terms of health and consistency, although saves should not be neglected. Your numbers suggest to me that power hitters are heavily favored in the league (although triples made things interesting). Since OBP is favored over average, you can get away with snagging guys like Dunn, Gomes, Swisher, and Wilkerson. Finally, since triples are a factor, be sure to snag some one like Furcal or Crawford to help out with that. Those are hard to come by as it is, so having some one who can get you double digits in triples will help your cause quite a bit.

RBIs, runs, HRs, stolen bases, etc...

Most guys can get by if they have one good pitch in the FSL, though. Juan Mateo's only plus pitch was his slider and he seemed to do pretty well down there last season, despite his alarming G/FB ratio. Veal's fastball is already pretty good with a decent (if inconsistent) curveball and a developing change...if I remember correctly. If he's advanced enough to start in Daytona, why not?

I think it's fair to question how good Justin Upton will be at the moment. Granted, scouts are drooling over how good of a player he could be if he reaches his ceiling (and justifiably so!), but sometimes all of the potential in the world doesn't mean anything if the guy can't produce at a high level. He's good enough top dominate high school baseball, but can he translate that success to pro ball? In that respect, I agree with the criticism of putting Upton at #2. However, one of the key things in this whole process will be his likelihood of translating that potential into success. Some guys might have tremendous ceilings but need to make some major adjustments in order to make that ceiling a reality. Most scouts seem convinced that he has the makeup and available talent to do that. If that is indeed the case, putting him at #2 makes sense. We'll see where he is a year from now. I'm skeptical of that ranking, but I think he has what it takes to prove the skeptics wrong.

I go to UW-Madison...so yeah, it's pretty much a given I know what a FIB is. It's more fun to gang up on the Minnesota people, though. What do a University of Minnesota student and UW-Madison student have in common? Both got into the University of Minnesota. Mwahahahahaha!

Three things about that particular article: 1) It talks about base stealing, not speed. I don't think this article helps people who have been advocating the argument that speed is what causes the greatest threats on the basepaths. It's intelligence, such as knowing when to break for second, reading a pitcher's motion, and knowing how good of an arm the catcher is. 2) I'd be curious to see a more individual breakdown of other players than Murphy/Henderson. While Murphy's numbers increased when Rickey was on base, his numbers were even better with some one else on base. I'd like to see how #2 hitters do in a similar situation. 2a) On a similar note, I'd like to see how #2 hitters performed with the successful basestealers (75%+) and the not so successful basestealers who managed to rack up 40+ SBs. My original point remains:

Upton's future is in the OF, probably Center. not if the rays are smart so yes, it's in the of Since when did the D-Rays have Justin Upton? :P

We've pointed out numerous examples. As a matter of fact, you have not pointed out anything worthwhile in this thread as a useful example. All you've done is point out things that are tenous at best in terms of the claims of this "conventional wisdom" that you keep harping on. We have presented a number of cases, facts, and statistics. Every single one of them has pointed out that there is little, if any, evidence to back up the claims of the "conventional wisdom". The evidence that does back this up is only in outlier cases wherein the pitcher is "weak-minded" or whatever. In the majority of cases, speed does not equate to making pitchers lose focus. The guy could be the fastest player on the field and still be a nitwit on the base paths, making him easy pickings for the pitcher and catcher. Give me a smart baserunner with decent speed over a speed demon with little concept of what to do on the basepaths any day. Prove this conventional wisdom. Back up your facts. Cite specific examples under a variety of circumstances. Show there's a positive correlation between pitchers losing concentration when some one fast is on the basepaths as opposed to when some one slow is on the basepaths. The burden of proof is on you. Prove us wrong.

Yes.

Problem with the "throwing off a pitcher's rhythm" argument is that it's very, very, very hard to really quantify that. While I do think there is some merit to it considering that pitchers have talked about being bothered by a speedster staring them in the face at first base, you'd have to wonder if they would have made similar mistakes if a somewhat slower guy was on base. However, this is one thing in particular that's noteworthy about speedsters and leadoff hitters that I think is critical. Corey Patterson showed us an important rule: you could be the fastest guy on the field, but it doesn't mean a lick if you don't know how the heck to run the bases. Now, my familiarity with Juan Pierre may not be as good as it could be, but here are his SB/CS numbers from the past three years: 2003: 65 SB, 20 CS, Success Rate: ~76% 2004: 45 SB, 24 CS, Success Rate: ~65% 2005: 57 SB, 17 CS, Success Rate: ~77% As a general rule of thumb, a guy can be considered a good base stealer if he gets caught less than 25% of the time. Pierre has had a ~73% success rate over the past three years. I'm really not sure how good of a baserunner that makes Pierre. Now, I will agree that it will be nice to have a guy who can use his speed to break up double plays, go from first to third on singles, and score from first on a double on a regular basis. But, if he makes dumb decisions and runs into outs, his speed won't be worth anything.

Currently have him as one of my dozen or so sleepers. :lol: Anyways, here's the quick scoop: -Turned 23 back in October. -Spent most of his season at Low A Greenville last season, but a broken hand derailed him for two months in the summer. He came back and finished the season up strong in September. -Doesn't seem to have any single significant tool that stands out, but his speed, power, and on base ability project to grade out to above or slightly above average at best. -Very intelligent and fundamentally sound. Seems to catch on well. -He'll probably start the season in LF in Daytona, opposite Ryan Harvey. From what I've read, there are enough positives about him to merit keeping an eye on him. He might not explode onto the scene like Matt Murton last season, but he could make some noise in Daytona and (if he gets promoted) West Tenn.

Some notes from Callis' BA chat: For 1908:

Has Upton even played a lick of pro ball yet?

Not in any order for the next two years... Likely CF Felix Pie SP/RP Carlos Marmol SP Angel Guzman SP Rich Hill SS/2B Ronny Cedeno IF Michael Fontenot OF Adam Greenberg Possible, but don't bank on it C Geovanny Soto SP/RP Sean Marshall 2B Eric Patterson 1B/OF Brandon Sing SP/RP Bobby Brownlie SP/RP Jae Kuk Ryu 3B Casey McGehee Unlikely, but who knows? SP Sean Gallagher 3B Scott Moore 1B Brian Dopirak SP Chadd Blasko SP Billy Petrick I may have missed a few, but there you go.

Sweet Neifi is our two hole hitter. A lot of sac bunts. GIDPerez!

I don't think Pujols has very good #'s against him either. Not many people do. That's what makes it fun. :) Z's nemesis is Jason Bay, as memory serves me. Also, Rolen was the guy who murdered the Cubs in that game. I remember being really pissed off about that inning since Z looked gassed, but Dusty didn't take him out for whatever reason. Moreover, he didn't have anyone warming up in the bullpen in case Z ran into trouble (which was possible given Pujols-Rolen-Edmonds was due up). The game was either tied or the Cubs had the lead when Z basically ran out of gas against Rolen and served up a game-breaking HR. With Remlinger not even ready to go (can't remember if he even was warming up at that point), Z basically decided, "screw it" and plunked Edmonds, knowing he'd get ejected. It was a smart move, to boot, since Remlinger got all the time he needed to warm up after Z was ejected and also because Z only allowed one base to Edmonds, which I would have taken at the time. While I can't stand guys like Edmonds and Pujols, Rolen...damn. He's one of those guys you can't help but respect and even admire. When it comes to Edmonds, he's one of those guys who makes it really easy to root against the Cardinals. That's what made that moment so special. :D

The best part of that was his reaction to getting ejected from the game. He just kind of threw up his hand and said "nah." He knew it was worth it. TLR whining about it was great, especially considering he's admitted to ordering his pitchers to throw at guys in the past.

I'm going back to my original points: 1) I don't think Corey's numbers last year are accurately reflective of how talented he is. This season with the Orioles could be interesting for him. 2) I agree that Crawford is better than CPatt. However, the price to pay for him would not be worth it, especially if this ridiculous trade were to happen (actually, independent confirmation would be welcome). My case is that if the Cubs were to trade Murton for Soriano and then prospects for Crawford, the Cubs would have been better off just keeping CPatt instead of trading for Crawford because of his ridiculous price.

Signing Lee for 5/60 or a comparable 4 year deal at this point would be most excellent, imo.

:shock: Crawford is a WHOLE lot better than CPat. From an offensive standpoint, Crawford is to Patterson, as Miguel Tejada is to Neifi. Three year splits: Crawford: 1900 ABs, 556 H, 77 2B, 43 3B, 31 HR, 190 RBI, 88 BB, 7 HBP, 267 K, 160 SB, 33 CS, .293/.324/.427/.751 Patterson: 1411 ABs, 363 H, 65 2B, 16 3B, 50 HR, 161 RBI, 83 BB, 7 HBP, 363 K, 63 SB, 19 CS, .257/.301/.432/.733 You could also make the argument that Dusty does not run as much with CPatt as Uncle Lou ran with Crawford, but I'll leave that to your own judgment. Like I said, given the price, keeping Corey would have been a better option than trading for Crawford, especially given his likely price tag. Plus, Crawford posting that kind of output in LF (given his price) would just be bad.