Outshined_One

I don't want to have to say this again, but I'm hoping this is the last time I have to say it about Moneyball. I think that the vast majority of the old school crowd who really dislike Moneyball either never read it or never really understood what it was about (or possibly both). The simplified argument is that it focuses too heavily on stats and that it's all about Oakland's love affair with OBP. Problem is...that's not really what it was about. Moneyball was about running a business with only limited number of resources. It was about finding ways to utilize and exploit the market in order to maximize the potential signings at the disposal of the Athletics. It centered on economics, risk assessment, and investing. If you took most of the human element out of the book, you could look into it like a book on the stock market. Beane was attempting to find weaknesses in the market. Basically, he tried to find the players who were undervalued, not sought out, relatively cheap, and most likely to return their investment, if not with interest. The problem is, the scouts who based their assessments on traditional statistics, gut feelings, and tools were not consistently effective enough to justify taking certain risks (such as taking a highly projectible high school pitcher). The Athletics needed a method which had a lower floor (and by extension, a lower ceiling) since they needed to spend their money wisely. Enter OBP and taking college pitchers higher in the draft than was the norm at the time. These guys were cheap, since other teams ignored or were unaware of those stats. Oakland was able to get them cheaply and were also using a less risky way of evaluating the guys, meaning they'd be more likely to make the majors (albeit, it was not 100% effective and these guys were less likely to become superstars). As you can see with recent Oakland drafts, their philosophy has shifted. More teams have been picking up on OBP and heavily utilizing statistics (Boston, Toronto, LA Dodgers for a period of time, etc), meaning those guys were no longer undervalued and pricing themselves out of Oakland's range. Recently, they've been taking more high school arms. Short version: Moneyball's not about the wonders of OBP and computers. It's about one effective way of running a business in baseball when your budget is limited.

I went to a game a number of years ago. In the section next to mine, there was a bachelor party going on with a bunch of guys in their late 20s drunk out of their minds. They tried to start the wave, but no one was budging on it. Eventually, an usher came over to them and said, "Sirs, we do not engage in that kind of behavior here at Wrigley. Please stop." It ruled. :D

They had a weird ruling for Akinori Otsuka, who had the ball slap in the glove in his delivery. He could do it with no one on base, but would be called for a balk if anyone was on.

Hell of a risky pick, IMB.

As memory serves me, Miller made it clear when he signed with this team that he had no intention of being a reliever.

Tigers' records against said teams: White Sox: 3-6 Red Sox: 1-2 Yankees: 1-4 They have three games left against the Yankees and three left against the Red Sox. They also have seven left with the White Sox. If the Red Sox and Yankees make the playoffs, the Tigers won't have to worry about facing the White Sox. Finally, regular season records don't tend to tell the whole story. Let's check out some of the recent WS winners and their regular season records against the other playoff teams in their league: Chicago White Sox Records in 2005: AL East Division Champs NY Yankees: 3-3 AL Wild Card Boston Red Sox: 3-4 AL West Champs LAA Angels: 4-6 Boston Red Sox' Records in 2004: AL East Division Champs NY Yankees: 11-8 AL Central Champs Minnesota Twins: 2-4 AL West Champs LAA Angels: 5-4 Marlins' Records in 2003: AL East Division Champs Atlanta: 10-9 NL Wild Card SF Giants: 1-5 NL Central Champs Chicago Cubs: 2-4 I could go on doing this. The bottom line is, the regular season does not make for good predictions when it comes to the postseason. All of a sudden, those crappy 4th and 5th starters can go flying out the door. Taking three out of five from a team in the regular season doesn't sound like much, but it'll be enough to advance from the first round. Ditto taking four out of seven when it comes to making it to the World Series and winning one.

I'm becoming less and less a fan of utilizing batting average when it comes to evaluating prospects. Sometimes it can be effective in predicting a hitter's effectiveness, but much of the time, as a guy moves from level to level, it's hard to count on almost any prospect for consistency in that regard. BABIP, Line Drive %, and all sorts of other things just factor so heavily into it that I find myself skeptical of many guys. Much like I have trouble understanding why people get so upset over a guy hitting .220, I have some trouble with people getting excited over a prospect hitting .300. Those aforementioned factors can work just as positively as they can negatively.

Don't forget the immortal David Kelton.

Why? I really like this team and think it would be awesome to have them in the World Series, considering their recent horrible stretch and the fact that their fans seem to be pretty on the level compared to other AL franchises.

Box Scores Iowa won 4-2 Box Score CF F. Pie 0/4 LF L. Montanez 1/3, BB, 2B (11) 2B B. Coats 0/4, K RF M. Restovich 0/4, 3 K 1B M. Hoffpauir 2/2, 2 BB, 2 R, E (6, fielding) 3B C. Mcgehee 2/4, R, RBI, 2B (21) C G. Soto 2/2, BB, R, 3 RBI, HR (4) SP JK Ryu 8 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 7/1 K/BB, HR, WP, 10-7 GO-FO West Tenn lost 1-0 Box Score CF C. Walker 1/4, 2 K, SB (37) 2B E. Patterson 1/4, K, CS (11), PO (2B) 3B S. Moore 1/3, K, HBP RF M. Negron 1/4, K 1B B. Sing 0/3, BB, 2 K LF R. Lewis 0/4, K SP F. Baez 7 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 5/1 K/BB, 3 HBP, 8-8 GO-FO Daytona lost 4-3 Box Score 2B N. Spears 1/5 SS J. Simokaitis 1/5, R, 2B (8), 2 K 1B M. Craig 1/4, RBI, 2 K RF R. Harvey 1/4, 2 K C J. Muyco 1/3, BB, 2 K SP M. Holliman 7 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 5/1 K/BB, HR, WP, 7-8 GO-FO, E (2, throw) Peoria lost 4-1 Box Score CF D. Gregg 0/4 3B R. Malone 0/3, BB, K LF J. Valdez 2/4, R, RBI, HR (5), K 1B R. Norwood 0/4, K 2B R. Chirinos 1/3, 2B (28) SS K. Reynolds 0/3 DH A. Garcia 0/3 RF Y. Carter 0/3 SP S. Taylor 5 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1/2 K/BB, 7-7 GO-FO Boise lost 3-1 Box Score RF M. Camp 1/3, BB, SB (10) C M. Mercedes 1/4, R CF T. Colvin 1/4, 3 K, SB (8) 3B J. Lansford 0/4, RBI 1B R. Canzler 1/3, BB LF DJ Lewis 1/4, K 2B S. Clevenger 0/4, 2 K DH E. Puello 2/3, 2B (2) PH/SS A. Joseph 0/1 (ooooooooookay then...) SP K. Kopach 4.1 IP, 1 H, 3 ER, 1/3 K/BB, 2 HBP, 8-4 GO-FO Mesa lost 2-1 Box Score 2B L. Rosario 1/4, K, SB (7), PO (2B) SS N. Samson 1/4 CF D. Rundle 1/4, K LF C. Andersen 2/4, 2B (3), 2 K, E (4, fielding) C C. Perez 0/3, RBI 3B C. Valentin 1/3, E (7, throw) SP J. Renshaw 3 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 4/1 K/BB, 2 balk, 5-0 GO-FO RP R. Dolis 2 hitless/scoreless, 2/1 K/BB, 2-1 GO-FO RP T. Parker 2 hitless/scoreless, 4/1 K/BB, 0-1 GO-FO, Pickoff (1B) OVERALL: 1-5

Bill Simmons fan?

Teixeira was drafted as a 3B. He moved because the Rangers had Blalock at 3B.

Two words: Sample size. I'm skeptical until he proves he can keep putting up these kinds of numbers by the end of the season.

While I dig his patience on the season, his power has been absolutely abysmal. He still could make the majors, but a .311 SLG isn't going to bowl anyone over, especially at 2B. Fixed. :D

Most importantly the best pitching prospect in the draft rarely goes in the top 5 it seems. Andrew Miller Jered Weaver etc

Quick! Call Mark Grace!

Darrin Downs gets the start tonight for Mesa.

One thing I will point out...5 picks is rather arbitrary. Why not 4? 6? Is there something about the number 5 that gives it ultimate value? Anyways...Hitters taken in the Top 5: 1999 1. Braves Chipper Jones SS Pierson, FL 2. Tigers Tony Clark OF El Cajon, CA 3. Phillies Mike Lieberthal C Westlake, CA 1991 2. Braves Mike Kelly OF Arizona State U 3. Twins David McCarty OF Stanford U 4. Cardinals Dmitri Young SS Camarillo, CA 1992 1. Astros Phil Nevin 3B Cal State Fullerton 4. Orioles Jeffrey Hammonds OF Stanford U 5. Reds Chad Mottola OF Central Florida U 1993 1. Mariners Alex Rodriguez SS Miami, FL 1994 2. Athletics Ben Grieve OF Arlington, TX 4. Brewers Tony Williamson 3B Arizona State U 5. Marlins Josh Booty SS Shreveport, LA 1995 1. Angels Darin Erstad OF U of Nebraska 2. Padres Mark Davis C Malvern, PA 3. Mariners Jose Cruz, Jr. OF Rice U 1996 2. Twins Travis Lee 1B San Diego State U 1997 2. Phillies *J.D. Drew OF Florida State U 3. Angels Troy Glaus 3B UCLA 5. Blue Jays Vernon Wells OF Arlington, TX 1998 1. Phillies Pat Burrell 1B U. of Miami (FL) 3. Cubs Corey Patterson OF Kennesaw, GA 5. Cardinals J.D. Drew OF No School 1999 1. Devil Rays Josh Hamilton OF Raleigh, NC 3. Tigers Eric Munson C U. of Southern California 4. Diamondbacks Corey Myers SS Scottsdale, AZ 5. Twins B.J. Garbe OF Moses Lake, WA 2000 1. Marlins Adrian Gonzalez 1B Chula Vista, CA 3. Cubs Luis Montanez SS Miami, FL 2001 1. Twins Joe Mauer C Cretin-Derham Hall HS, St. Paul 5. Rangers Mark Teixeira 3B Georgia Tech 2002 2. Devil Rays B.J. Upton SS Greenbriar Christian, Chesapeake, VA 2003 1. Devil Rays Delmon Young RF Adolfo Camarillo HS 2. Brewers Rickie Weeks 2B Southern U A&M 5. Royals Christopher Lubanski CF Kennedy-Kenrick Catholic 2004 1. Padres Matthew Bush SS Mission Bay HS 2005 1. Diamondbacks Justin Upton SS Great Bridge HS Chesapeake, VA 2. Royals Alex Gordon 3B Univ. of Nebraska Lincoln, NE 3. Mariners Jeffrey Clement C Univ. of Southern Cal. Marshalltown, IA 4. Nationals Ryan Zimmerman 3B Univ. of Virginia Virginia Beach, VA 5. Brewers Ryan Braun 3B Univ. of Miami Granada Hills, CA

Honestly, I think the sample size for pitchers taken in the top 5 since 1990 is too small of a sample size to really make that kind of judgment. Stop and think about how many pitchers are taken in the first round each year of the draft. How many of them even make it to the majors? How many make it to the majors and are productive? How many go on to become stars? How many of those guys were signability picks in the Top 5? The MLB draft has a huge, huge number of players with so many factors coming into play that it's next to impossible to make that kind of solid judgment on taking a pitcher in the Top 5.

Billy Muldowney has finally returned from his hiatus, as he's currently pitching for Boise. They're not doing so hot, though.

I go by typical title rules for starting threads. The thread title almost always has all words starting with capitals save for stuff like "the", "and", "to" and so on. Just a habit of mine.

That's great news. Rundle seems to be figuring things out a bit, too. Rundle's IsoD: .175 Andersen's IsoD: .091 I wouldn't worry so much about either of the HS OF draftees, especially considering they're in Mesa. Both seem to have a good grasp of the strike zone (despite their seemingly alarming K numbers). Both have surprising patience at the plate and I wouldn't be surprised to see either or both start improving on their contact rates.

So a sacrifice bunt will not count against a streak, but a sacrifice fly will. When it comes to nuanced, confusing, detailed, and typically arbitrary rules, baseball beats all other sports by miles.

Box Scores Iowa won 10-5 Box Score CF F. Pie 2/4, BB, 3 R, 2B (23), SB (12), K RF B. Coats 2/4, BB, R, 3 RBI, 2 K 2B M. Fontenot 0/4, 2 K LF M. Restovich 2/3, BB, R, RBI, 2 2B (23) 1B M. Hoffpauir 0/3, BB, R, RBI, K 3B C. McGehee 2/4, 2 R, 3 RBI, 2B (20), K C J. Reyes 2/4, R, 2 RBI SP R. O'Malley 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2/3 K/BB, 4-10 GO-FO RP A. Shipman 1.2 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1/1 K/BB, HR, 2-2 GO-FO RP C. Rapada .1 IP, 1 ER, 0/2 K/BB, 0-1 GO-FO West Tenn lost 6-3 Box Score CF C. Walker 2/4, CS (16) 2B E. Patterson 1/5, R, RBI, 3B (9) C J. Fox 2/5, R, 2 RBI, 2B (9), HR (5) 3B S. Moore 1/4, BB, 2B (24), K 1B B. Dopirak 1/3, BB LF/RF M. Negron 2/5 RF/1B B. Sing 0/4, BB PH/LF R. Lewis 2/2, R SP I. Pavlik 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 4/1 K/BB, 8-6 GO-FO, 2 E (throw x2) RP T. Atlee 2 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 0/1 K/BB, 3-3 GO-FO Daytona won 3-1 Box Score DH N. Spears 1/4, 2B (10) 2B J. Simokaitis 0/4, K 1B M. Craig 0/4, R, 2 K RF R. Harvey 2/3, R, SB (4) SS J. Mota 0/3, 2 K, E (13, throw) SP R. Bicondoa 7.1 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 12/0 K/BB, 9-1 GO-FO Peoria lost 7-4 Box Score CF D. Gregg 2/4, R, 3B (2), 2 K 2B R. Malone 0/3, BB, R, RBI LF J. Valdez 1/3, BB, R, 2B (22) 1B R. Norwood 0/3, BB, 3 K, E (8, fielding) SS R. Chirinos 0/3, BB, RBI, K, E (11, fielding) DH M. Reed 0/3, RBI, 2 K, HBP RF Y. Carter 1/4, 2 K PH A. Garcia 0/1, 1 K SP M. Atkins 3 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1/5 K/BB, HR, 2-4 GO-FO Boise lost 10-1 Box Score CF M. Camp 1/3, 2B (6) LF DJ Lewis 0/1 LF/CF T. Colvin 0/4, R DH J. Lansford 1/4, RBI, K 1B R. Canzler 0/4, K RF A. Joseph 0/2, BB 2B S. Clevenger 0/3, K 3B E. Puello 0/3 SP M. Pawelek 3 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 4/3 K/BB, WP, HBP, 2-3 GO-FO RP B. Muldowney 2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 4/1 K/BB, WP, 1-1 GO-FO Mesa lost 9-3 Box Score 2B V. Heredia 0/4, 2 K SS N. Samson 1/2, 2 BB, R CF D. Rundle 2/4, R DH C. Gilbert 1/4, R, 2 RBI, 2B (5), 2 K RF C. Andersen 2/4, RBI, K 3B F. Tirado 0/3 1B L. Murphy 1/4, K LF W. Inoa 0/4, 2 K, SB (4) SP D. Downs 1.1 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 1/1 K/BB, HR, 3-0 GO-FO RP D. Walters 2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 3/1 K/BB, 2-1 GO-FO RP O. Bernard 1 perfect, 2-1 GO-FO OVERALL: 2-4

Yet he still managed to reach, steal a base, and score a run. :P