Outshined_One

This season has been so freaking weird.

Welcome!

I did not have July 27th, 2023 in the "return to .500" pool.

This is getting embarrassing. I'm just flummoxed. How the horsefeathers can this team claim to be doing its due diligence now when it spent tens of millions of dollars purchasing and demolishing a parcel, only to find out that Arlington Heights, Cook County, and Illinois wouldn't give them preferential tax treatment?

If the Cubs are going to play the "sellers, but still competitors" card, I think it comes down to two factors with Stroman and Bellinger: Can the Cubs replace Stroman's spot in the rotation effectively? Wesneski probably has the inside track for this spot, but you're asking a lot of a guy who hasn't hit 100 IP in the majors yet. It's a huge roll of the dice, especially since I don't think it would be reasonable to hotshot the callups of guys like Brown, Wicks, and Horton. Unless the Cubs can pull off a trade for a SP with control, or they luck out with replacing Stroman in-house, trading Stroman would likely be a substantial net negative for 2023. Can the Cubs get a better package of prospects than they'd get with a QO with Bellinger? There's been a lot of discussion about calling up PCA to replace Bellinger (not a fan), but I think the OF can be restructured in-house without the offense falling to pieces without Bellinger in the lineup. Of course, if some team wants to be insane and do something like trade two Top 100 prospects for either, that would definitely alter the equation.

Ballesteros is one of those prospects that makes me grateful the DH is universal now. I always felt as if guys like Schwarber and Vogelbach lost a significant amount of trade value simply because half the teams in MLB had nowhere to put them.

Might as well start a new thread where we can track other big trades and complain about how the Cubs overpaid/should have gotten more in their own upcoming deals. Giolito and Lopez traded to LAA. Looks like Ohtani isn't going anywhere, unless someone ludicrously overpays.

Remember those Cardinals teams that never, ever went away in the division races because they had magic pixie dust that turned garbage into gold and other teams would have obscenely dumb losses to them? That's the Cubs, now.

I mean, sure, this team could make the playoffs by playing .667 the rest of the way because every other team decided to trying actively crapping their pants against the Cubs as a strategy.

Go home, game, you're tripping on acid.

Gotta play my veterans, dude.

It's so weird to me that this team suuuuuuucked at producing in-house pitching prospects during the Theo reign, where most of their farm successes were either acquired via trade (Hendricks, Arrieta, Strop, CEJr) or were already in-system when Theo took over (Samardzija). Now? I can pretty much talk myself into loving the chances of any pitcher they draft.

We could also be looking at a Willson Contreras situation where the market just isn't there for Bellinger relative to what the Cubs would get if they made a QO with draft pick compensation. Bellinger is really good, but if teams aren't offering prospects as good as or better than Jaxson Wiggins (who's probably a Top 20-25 guy in the system at the moment), then the Cubs might as well hang onto him.

The thought of calling up PCA at this stage in his development makes me uneasy if the intention is to keep the Cubs in contention. Maybe it's PTSD from how the Cubs handled Corey Patterson back in the day, but I get a bit leery when guys with contact-oriented approaches and noticeable strikeout rates get called up too early, particularly if they get called up in the middle of a playoff chase where the pressure can sometimes result in guys developing bad habits.

Bruce Miles no longer actively posts here, so YMMV. Also, welcome back!

I really like the possibility of acquiring a reclamation project to hold down one of the rotation spots while the AA/AAA/AAAA guys sort themselves out. Given the Cubs' history in getting good mileage out of those kinds of guys, it's a worthwhile risk to take, especially if it helps sort out the forthcoming 40 manpocalypse. Again, with these articles, I don't think this is a trade deadline move given the current uncertainty with Stro/Smyly/Hendricks and the need for the higher level SP prospects to stay healthy and hit their IP limits, but in the offseason? I'd abso-effing-lutely love it.

The only other thing I can think of is Wiggins' post-draft physical might not have gone as well as expected, hence the hold up in getting him signed. I get that most people consider TJS recovery to be automatic, but if there are concerns about a longer recovery than expected recovery period or the possibility of follow-up procedures, I could see the Cubs make a push to sign him below slot.

I always love me a good prospect roundtable, so what the heck, here are my justifications: Pete Crow-Armstrong Cade Horton Pretty obvious 1-2 for me here. PCA's giving me Javier Baez vibes in a good way and also in a not so great way due to his plate discipline. Regardless, a guy like that can be a huge boon during his cost-controlled years. Horton gets the nod as the top pitcher due to his meteoric rise through the system and balanced profile with stuff, command, and control as a SP, although he gets held back from the #1 spot due to the usual TINSTAAPP concerns. Matt Shaw Jordan Wicks Miguel Amaya Ben Brown This next cluster tends to shuffle for me on a day to day basis. I was initially bummed with Shaw on draft day, but when I was reminded that he probably would have been a Top 5 pick in a normal year and his bat would play anywhere on the diamond, I got over it. Wicks gets the nod over Brown because LHPs are more likely to stick in the majors and I really like how Wicks has a different arsenal compared to the rest of the system. Amaya seems like a good bet to get a second contract in the majors, but I get the feeling he's more of a competent C/DH type than an impact player. To me, Brown has the second highest ceiling as a pitcher in the system (more on that below), but I have a nagging suspicion his control might merit a move to the bullpen, hence his placement below Wicks and Horton. Kevin Alcantara Owen Caissie Two hitters with fantastic corner OF potential, but definite concerns about their development as they face more advanced pitching hold them back. I'd feel more comfortable about their profiles if this were a different system, so I get the feeling they'd be more valuable as trade bait this coming offseason than keeping them in-system. Jackson Ferris Matt Mervis Moises Ballesteros Kevin Made James Triantos I think Ferris is the highest ceiling pitching prospect in the system. I could easily see him as my #1 prospect by the end of next season, so long as he stays healthy and on track. Mervis, Ballesteros, Made, and Triantos constitute my "there's good and not so good" blob of position prospects who have the attributes to be everyday types in the majors, but who also have noticeable issues that could see them flame out. Alexander Canario Canario is a complete wild card to me. If he's healthy, his profile is beastly. But the injury and the uncertainty around whether he can recover 100% keeps him out of my Top 10. Josh Rivera Cristian Hernandez Daniel Palencia Brennan Davis Richard Gallardo Jefferson Rojas Not gonna lie, this is where I start throwing darts at random names. Rivera is an intriguing senior sign who needs to hit the ground running next season to see how much there is there. If I were doing this list today, I probably would have dropped Hernandez off, but he's here due to age and legacy status. Palencia has the stuff to be a really good pen arm, and now has to prove it in the majors. Davis' injury issues see him continue to slip, but the potential is still there. Gallardo just needs to keep progressing and stay healthy, but he's shaping up to be a possible workhorse type SP. Rojas got to 20 by the magic of being the flavor of the month, and by being really young and productive for his level. HMs: Jaxon Wiggins (needs to sign and Luke Hagerty scared me off TJS guys having a routine recovery); Luis Vazquez (probably would have been #20 if I made the list today); Will Sanders (seems like the type who will benefit from the Pitch Lab); the third tier P prospects who haven't blown up (Hodge/Birdsell/Herz/Little/Franklin/Arias); BJ Murray (overshadowed by Mervis, but might be the better player when all is said and done); Pablo Aliendo (catchers tend to develop slower, but he's coming on). Admittedly, the most depressing part of this exercise has been the fact that Caissie is the only positive contributor currently in the system from the Darvish deal. Blech.

I've been slacking since I graduated from law school. 😞

Welcome!

Welcome!

...and you bought NSBB why exactly?

Welcome!

Welcome!