JudasIscariotTheBird

Eh. The dream is largely over. Last I checked I was in 40th, and I probably need 80 points combied from Lazard and Najee to win the million. A chess player I know of through the interwebs is prob going to take it down.

Zactly. Probably won't bother, though.

If it's on the wire at all with Najee into Monday night you gotta look at some prop hedge bets of some kind right? I don't normally roll like that, but I might consider it if I see something reasonable. Under bets tend to be where value can be found, sometimes. On a side note, it looks like literally ALL of Denver's WRs might be hitting the COVID list. Would you look at that! Ater checking the practice squad list, it is now, semi-officially, TRAVIS FULGHAM season! LFG!

2nd is 250K. 5th is 50k, 10th is 15k, 100th is 2k. 160th is 1k. Super top heavy, which is standard. So all the better that my team is a bit of a glass canon.

So, there is this rag-tag fantasy-for-cash outfit called "Underdog Fantasy." They offered a buy-one-get-one deal for their big-draw contest: a 25 dollar entry best-ball tournament that gives 1 million to first. I decided that sounded fun, and drafted a few teams. On one of them, I went RB heavy to start, simply because zero-RB was all the rage on this site. Well, I squeaked through the regular season by taking 2nd, advanced out of the first week of the playoffs, and then thanks to the Bengals going super nova last week, I'm in the finals. There are only 160 teams left for this final week. This is cool all by itself, but my team is uniquely set up to win it all. Not only is it the only team left with Kamara, it is also the only team left with Najee Harris. To give an idea of how weird this is, Waller and Henry are the ONLY players drafted in all drafts to not be represented in the finals. Hell, there are 6 J.K. Dobbins rosters that made it to the finals. My roster also doesn't have Andrews, Kupp, Adams, St. Brown, or Damien Harris, who are the most-owned players. Burrow 16% Hurtz 14 Kamara 1 Najee Harris 1 Mixon 22 Singletary 26 Higgins 24 Boyd 14 Scantling 18 Cooks 16 Lazard 11 DeVonta Smith 9 Watkins 9 Shepard 7 Fulgham 1 Pitts 3 Everett 7 I could easily take last, but I'm much more likely to win than the average roster. Hopefully it's at least a fun sweat. If I'm anywhere near the big money with Najee being all by his lonesome on Monday night, I'm going to need medication.

He had another one where someone tweets to him "you were awful" and he comes back with "that's not what your mom said!" I feel like the "your mom" stuff needs to be used more judiciously, but Flynn flashed some humor during interviews when he was in Green Bay.

Imagine having thousands of dollars on the line and having to root for Montgomery TDs.

It's best ball playoff season. Needed Kupp to score less than 35 points to have 3 teams advance. Needed him to score more than 39 to have two others advance. Scored 37.70. I'll forever h8 that guy.

Can we talk about his slide-technique, which is clearly inviting concussions? (This is not a serious statement.)

Yes. That's because they have to blitz a lot because their D line sucks, and because teams pass on them a lot because their pass D sucks. Per pro football ref, they still have them falling outside the top 10 of Blitz rate. Not sure if theyre accurate or not. Good hurry% and decent pressure% too. Maybe pfr has trash stats, but this seems I'll-developed as a theory. Just outside the top 10 in blitz rate (11th) and well below average in QB knockdown % (27th) ...but their pressure rate is way higher than I thought so I guess I'm full of crap. I'll also just add in that the Vike's pace of play (6th) also helps with rate stats like sacks.

Yeah I know DVOA and I think QBR take score/leverage into account and so they won't be too kind to him tonight. It was also a pretty crummy night with his legs. That said in terms of purely just standing in the pocket and letting it rip probably his best game. . It's nearly automatic that QBs have good stats like this against the Vikes. They have been the worst at defending against WR production in the entire league this year. That largely has to do with a complete lack of pass rush. which was not the case tonight. Take all of that for what you will. Yes. That's because they have to blitz a lot because their D line sucks, and because teams pass on them a lot because their pass D sucks.

Statistically yes but eye test I think the Steelers game was better as he put up similar stats but on the road and in a high leverage situation. Yeah I know DVOA and I think QBR take score/leverage into account and so they won't be too kind to him tonight. It was also a pretty crummy night with his legs. That said in terms of purely just standing in the pocket and letting it rip probably his best game. . It's nearly automatic that QBs have good stats like this against the Vikes. They have been the worst at defending against WR production in the entire league this year. That largely has to do with a complete lack of pass rush. which was not the case tonight. Take all of that for what you will.

It was definitely the right decision to go for 2 and as previously mentioned, a horsefeathers play call. On the 1st drive of the game, would you have gone for the TD or kicked the FG? I thought going for the TD was the way to play it. They (rightly) assumed the Packers were going to put up a lot of points, and there are additional reasons that going for it on a TD is better than on an 2 point conversion. There is just the extra point that a TD gets you relative to the 2 point convert/1 extra point decision. There is also the field position portion to consider as well. If you do fail to get the TD, you get an extra 30 yards of field position compared to the alternative. Yes, the attempt was from the 4 yard line or so, but I still think it made sense to go for it. Early in the game, it almost always makes sense to go for it if your (and your oponent's) offense is at all competant, and doubly so if you consider yourself the underdog.

I know it's not the same as betting on the outcome of a game, but I'm firing up Fields for DFS.

Warning: the inevitable crypto-blathering comes late in the convo, but otherwise I thought it was a pretty cool talk.

So, here were all of the actual mistakes and break downs in "go for it" hypotheticals in the Ravens-Packers game. https://www.yahoo.com/sports/ravens-2-point-conversion-analytics-packers-005823164.html

Whoops

So, here were all of the actual mistakes and break downs in "go for it" hypotheticals in the Ravens-Packers game. https://www.yahoo.com/sports/ravens-2-point-conversion-analytics-packers-005823164.html

Why?

You're being incoherent. *shrug* don't know what you're not following So you are pointing out that scoring points is better than failing to score points? Thanks for the insight.

You're being incoherent.