Sabermetrician

Obviously, it seems bad because you could say we dealt Dubois for a PTBNL, but you could also take it one step further to the offseason, where Lawton could have left via free agency, and say we dealt Dubois for nothing at all. I don't blame Hendry for making any of the three deals that led to where we are now. We were still in the Wild Card race at the trade deadline, Lawton could have been the catalyst we needed at the top of the order. It hasn't turned out that way, but Hendry can't see into the future, and it's not his fault the team is underperforming. He's doing his best to get something for players while he still can. It's too bad we traded Lawton and not Burnitz in the deal, because, if any, Lawton's the guy we would have wanted to keep around for next season (Assuming he would have ended up playing similar to his career numbers, specifically OBP).

There's some glipses of the article...It's a quality read, I think we all know that if the Cubs want to ever really be a quality lineup top to bottom they have to add more patient hitters... Oh yeah: http://detroit.tigers.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20050824&content_id=1181903&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

Has Lugo been talked about at all? $4.95 team option in Tampa Bay, we'd probably have to trade for him. But I'd rather do that and have Lugo for just one season than overpay for Furcal at $8-9 million, especially if it allows us to overpay for Damon... (read on) The more I think about it, the more I wouldn't mind giving Damon a bit more than he probably deserves, as long as it's only a 3-year deal. The problem is, Damon might command 4 or even 5 years, and in that case it's too long even if it is for a cheaper price annually. Unfortunately, this is the Cubs, and with our luck Jacque Jones will be our starting RF, Neifi Perez will be the every day shortstop, and some scrub like Luis Rivas will be signed as the 2B for the league minimum, since Walker's $2.5 million team option is just too much.

Walker will hopefully be back at 2B next year, as he's got a relatively cheap team option. But there's no problem in trading players who will be free agents this offseason and netting some prospects in return.

Will some teams recognize that he's been a quality closer for the Cubs and go after him this offseason? Or, will they look at his misleading season ERA, think he wasn't very good and try to avoid him? Do teams really do their homework before offering contracts? Do you see the Cubs re-signing Dempster? I'd like to see him back, but I'd also try to sign a top tier closer and see Dempster as a setup reliever. How much money will Dempster command? Who is the Cubs closer next year: 1) Dempster 2) Williamson 3) Wood 4) Someone else from within the organization (Could Guzman be a successful closer? 5) Someone else via free agency or trade I know this post isn't tied together very well, I'm awfully tired and I'm about to go to bed... But, in general, what kind of market do you see this offseason for Dempster, either as a starter or a reliever, and do you see the Cubs bringing him back?

Millar might be intriguing on a possible 1 year, $3M deal as Rotoworld mentions. However, he's a guy you'd have to look into with possible character issues, home/away splits, etc. But if we want a guy with a high OBP with limited power (4 HR, 40 RBI so far this season), we might have an equal option in Murton already.

Has Jason Kubel completely fallen off the map, or is he still a top prospect? How close is he to the majors might play a big factor in the Twins deciding to shop one of their current outfielders. BTW - Hendry was interested in Jacque Jones last offseason. Like I was saying then, I think Jones would be okay as a one-year fix...though his OBP in past years' scares me (I think he's got it up to around .340 this year, though I didn't check so I could be wrong).

Unfortunately there isn't going to be much talent to spend that money on this offseason. The free agent pool is pretty pathetic going into this offseason. I could see Hendry pulling off a big trade though for a Dunn, Kearns type player. Of course I'm also hoping that Hendry and Dusty come to an agreement that this team is better off with Dusty somewhere else. If anything, then, overpay some guys for the bullpen for one year rather than giving them their market value for a multiyear deal. Three of those 7 in the bullpen from the original post are horrible (Novoa, Wuertz, Bartosh), and one I've never seen pitch (Brownlie). So with the free agents being as bad as they are, just sign some proven guys to pitch out of the pen for one year, and still have the same amount of money for the next offseason. Worst case scenario, someone we sign that we expect to do good, doesn't, yet there's hardly any risk to it as it's only for one season and he'll be off the books following the season anyway.

http://web.basketballboards.net/forum/showthread.php?t=189245 http://web.basketballboards.net/forum/showthread.php?t=189247 :?:

Just arguing with a friend of mine and we disagree on this. One of us thinks Jones is a lock for a HOFer when he retires, the other says Chipper doesn't have the numbers to get there. What do you think?

This is exactly what I was thinking. Since first base was occupied and there wasn't two outs at the time of the strike out, Burrell, by rule, couldn't attempt to take 1st on the passed ball.

I was just watching Baseball Tonight and saw it actually happen for the first time, and Harold Reynolds said something that I don't think is right at all. "Weren't the bases loaded? All you've got to do is step on the plate." That can't be right. The ball wasn't hit into play, so he would have to be tagged out at home. Correct?

via Rotoworld I don't think any team would complain about having a middle infield of Polanco and Guillen locked up for 3-4 years. Polanco has been a good, consistant player for a while now, and it amazes me he couldn't get a long term deal before now. The guy has a .344 career OBP, doesn't strike out, plays a good defense at 2B, and supposedly is a great guy to have in the clubhouse. His OBP's since 2000: 2000-.347 2001-.342 2002-.316/.353 (STL/PHI) 2003-.352 2004-.345 2005-.376/.426 (PHI/DET) I'm sorry, but I disagree with Rotoworld here. Would you have signed Todd Walker to a 4-year deal before 2003? Walker is a little bit different than Polanco. First, Walker doesn't have near the versatility of Polanco. Polanco has played 2B, SS, and 3B this season and throughout his career, and played all pretty well. Walker has played 2B for most of the past three seasons with a couple games at 1B. And Walker on defense is probably an average 2B at best. On offense, Walker's always been a good hitter. He had OBP's of .372, .343, .287/.385, .361, .349, and .353 before 2003. At that point, Walker's 29, same as Polanco, and has proven himself as a very good hitter in the #2-hole. Asking the question of "Does Walker have at least 4 good seasons left?" after 2002 is the same as asking "Does Walker have at least 1 good season left?" after this season. I believe the answer to both of those questions is "Yes." What seperates Polanco from Walker, however, is his defense. If money had equal value before 2003 as it did now, Walker wouldn't get the same deal that Polanco got today from the Tigers. Where Polanco got 4/18.4M (an average of 4.6 per season) from the Tigers, Walker might get around 4/15M (3.75) because he's only an average defender and really is only capable of playing one position, 2B.

I want details on a possible contract extension before jumping on a "Lawton-on-the-Cubs-in-06-and-beyond" bandwagon. I'm excited about the acquistion, but I had assumed it would only be a half year rental. I don't know if the Twins would be very interested in Hairston anymore. With Hunter out for the season, I don't think the Twins have much of a chance at the playoffs and I'm not sure they'd want to keep Hairston after this season. Since Bartlett was recalled today, it wouldn't surprise me if the Twins brought some other guys up to see how they do.

I think Dotel will get more from someone else than that $500k/$2M T.O. that Hendry has signed Dempster and Williamson to. So, my guess would be no.

[Double post]

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via Rotoworld I don't think any team would complain about having a middle infield of Polanco and Guillen locked up for 3-4 years. Polanco has been a good, consistant player for a while now, and it amazes me he couldn't get a long term deal before now. The guy has a .344 career OBP, doesn't strike out, plays a good defense at 2B, and supposedly is a great guy to have in the clubhouse. His OBP's since 2000: 2000-.347 2001-.342 2002-.316/.353 (STL/PHI) 2003-.352 2004-.345 2005-.376/.426 (PHI/DET) I'm sorry, but I disagree with Rotoworld here.

Just received in my email... 4-year extension with the Tigers, through 2009 - no terms yet.

Well, assuming he isn't a 100% complete wreck, I'd rather have CPatt in CF than Hairston if Lawton is going to be manning LF. The beauty is we don't have to force Corey into a role in which he doesn't belong (top of the order)... Plus, not that it's a huge deal, but Corey is a far better CF than Hairston. I could live with Corey in the 7th spot or so... Lawton, Walker, Lee, Ramirez, Burnitz, Nomar, Patterson, Barrett (or something similar) isn't too bad... It's not as nice as some of the Manny and Dunn fantasy lineups.. but oh, well. I guess we think alike. :D I didn't even read your post before making mine.

I wouldn't mind giving Corey another chance, as long as we don't bat him leadoff (which isn't likely). With Lawton acquired, Corey could hit down in the order, hopefully #7. I've got nothing against Hairston, but I think our lineup could potentially be better with Corey hitting #7 than it is right now with Hairston (OBP June/July: .333/.304). This is what I would do: LF-Lawton 2B-Walker 1B-Lee 3B-Ramirez RF-Burnitz SS-Garciaparra CF-Patterson C-Barrett

BBTN had a "Worst Trade Offers" segment a couple of nights ago. They only had a couple, but one was that the Indians called Seattle about Guardado and Seattle wanted Sizemore from Cleveland. I don't remember the other. And of course, we all know about the Baez for Zambrano offer. They went on to say, that once a team makes that kind of offer, what's the next step? Usually it's hanging up the phone, but what would you say if you call them back? "Sorry, we don't want to trade Sizemore, but we'll offer two good pitching prospects for Guardado." How would the other team (in this case seattle) take that offer when they were just asking for a top prospect?

The rumor here in Michigan is that the Tigers offered Farnsworth a 3 year, $9 million extension to stay with Detroit. Not only did his agent turn that down, he never really considered it and never came back with a proposal of his own, either. So, the Tigers recognized that Farnsworth more than likely would not be back after this year regardless, and dealt him when they could get some prospects for him. I find it hard to believe that Colon and Minor is the best the Tigers could get for Farnsworth, since his value is probably at an all-time high right now. Regardless, Colon and Minor is no where close to being equal to Novoa and Moore, so the overall "Farnsworth experiment" in Detroit is probably a failure. Farnsworth posted dominant numbers, but in the end they couldn't net more for him than what they gave up. Maybe that speaks volumes about Hendry's work in constructing that deal. Even though Farnsworth's value was low, he was still able to get more than Dombrowski was able to get now, when his value was high. Even though I never was a fan of that Farnsworth to the Tigers trade. :lol: :lol:

So many of us have been preaching OBP all along yet it seemed like Hendry and Dusty always chose to ignore it, but they got a good one in Lawton. He's 7th in the NL in OBP, capable of playing any outfield position, and really does what you want a leadoff hitter to do. He shows a lot of patience at the plate, works the count, doesn't strike out too much, and has a good SB-CS ratio (not particularly this year, though by my count he's stolen at least 8 straight to get up to 16/9, when I checked earlier this season he was 8/9). I'm really excited about this pickup. Lawton is more than likely a half year rental so it's a good thing we only had to give up Gerut for him. $7.75 million this year and then a free agent after this season. Even if you're asking me if I'd rather have Jody Gerut for a couple of years or Matt Lawton for half a season to help make a playoff run, I'm taking Lawton without looking back. How Hendry continues to make such good deals in a weak market amazes me. I mean, if I'm a GM, I wouldn't have even made the offer, thinking it'd be so weak, Pittsburgh would want so much more, and Lawton talks would fall apart completely. I have to wonder how this type of trade came to be when I really think we'd have given at least a nice prospect to Pittsburgh in return.

We have to remember to turn avatars and sigs off on these boards in the future on big days such as the trade deadline, because with so many people trying to post the forum databases are acting up. Turning the sigs and avatars off would allow a lot of cleared bandwidth for people to post and navigate through threads without seeing "Critical database error" after every click. Maybe if an admin sees this post right now they could turn avatars and sigs off? Anyways, not sure what will become of the two Lawton threads (this one and the Buster Olney reporting). Whether they merge or lock one or do whatever is fine with me... I'm still anxious to see what we gave up.