The best way to determine a decline is not to look at one year in a player's career - you need something to compare him to. Here's the comparison for Aramis: 2008: .898 OPS/149 games played 2009: .905 OPS/82 games played 2010: .745 OPS/124 games played 2011: .867 OPS/147 games played In 2 of the past 4 seasons he's missed significant portions of the year - 38 games in 2010 and half the year in 2009. For the first time since 2008 he was very healthy this year, and managed an OPS 30 points below his most previous fully healthy year. Defensively, UZR/150 has had him getting consistently worse every year since 2008 to the point that his UZR/150 this year was -10.0. I realize UZR isn't gospel, but it's something to consider. Aramis may come out and have another good year next year and be fully healthy, I'm not saying he's a definite to break down next year. However, there is a very real risk that he may repeat his 2010 season or even his 2009 season rather than 2011. That risk needs to be factored in when considering giving him big money and the fact that he's going to be older next season than he was any of the past 4 years (obviously), that risk only goes up. B2B's point is pretty awful, but you can't just look at Aramis's raw OPS and call it a day for his offense.