Joe Lunardi should never be taken seriously. He is one of the worst out there at projecting a bracket, and has never beaten NSBB who puts all of 2 weeks effort into it.
Subtracting the 3 minutes of the Illinois game from 5:50 to 2:50 left in the 1st half has Illinois outscoring Indiana by 11. I guess Indiana wasn't trying for those 37 minutes either.