Hrubes20

Jensen is really interesting to me. Certainly not who I would have picked, but he had helium and provides a power arm in a system with very very few of them in the rotation. Strumpf is a super “meh” pick for me. HATE those k rates for a player that won’t provide defensive or base running value. I’m sure a fun high ceiling prep pick will happen in the 4th or 5th like usual and it will make this class look more appealing. Have to imagine Jensen saved some bonus money for overslots.

That was some filth.

Espino was at 15, Malone at 21, and Priester at 26 Thanks, no Goss or Thompson in the first? They might be my favorite HS arms behind Espino these days...I’m also pretty into Barco as the second round pick if that can happen/makes sense with the nonsense cap and rules It will all come down to medicals with Barco. Have to imagine one of the teams with a huge bonus pool like the Dbacks takes a chance on him.

https://www.thecubreporter.com/05282019/cubs-rehabbers-shut-down-dbacks-riverview Damn. Have to imagine he gets sent to full season ball rather shortly.

I don't know who you are speaking of. The Cubs haven't taken a 1st round pitcher since Hayden Simpson, who is out of baseball. I'm assuming the 2017 draft started in the 2nd round, because the 1st is blacked out in my mind. Not sure why you wouldn't also black out Hayden Simpson. The Cubs had such spotty drafts those days that it was just business as usual. Also, it was only one horrific pick in that one, whereas the Cubs whiffed not once, but twice in the same first round in 2017. Or at least that's what the web says. Like I said, it's all grainy in my mind.

I don't know who you are speaking of. The Cubs haven't taken a 1st round pitcher since Hayden Simpson, who is out of baseball. I'm assuming the 2017 draft started in the 2nd round, because the 1st is blacked out in my mind.

Lol. This was exactly my thought process last year with the Nico Hoerner selection. I was not happy at the time (and thought they should go for someone with a higher upside), but that pick has worked out pretty well so far. I'm praying Hoerner doesn't turn into Almora 2.0 Mine as well, except the initial reaction was the "they must be saving money" line.

Gross

I didn't like Singer, either. AA will be the proving ground for him, IMO.

In the first mock draft on The Athletic they have their beat writers select for each team so it's Sahadev Sharma for the Cubs. This should make Hrubes20 happy lol. Will Wilson is selected right before this pick to the Diamondbacks at #26 and Kameron Misner goes at #17 to the Nationals. I don't think we're taking Greg Jones because it doesn't fit what we've seen this FO do with their top pick. They're willing to take players with great athleticism that lack polish and are still raw in that 2nd/3rd round area (Jacob Hannemann and Brennan Davis). I don't think they would take that kind of player in the 1st round and Greg Jones has some doubters in regards to his swing/hit tool and how much power he'll develop. He's definitely an amazing athlete and would be the most athletic player in our system. Agree on all of that. It's highly unlikely that the top Cubs scouts see Jones as significantly more polished than what the accessible scouting reports are telling us at this point. It's fun to dream on, but I know it's not likely at all. Also, Jones had a rough last week or two and bumped his season K rate to over 15%. That's a dealbreaker for me in the 1st round.

Have you heard anything about Riley Thompson and the changes the Cubs' player development staff have made? It seems like both his command and control have improved drastically from where it was in college. I am also quite interested in this one.

I'm not going to go back for them again, but they are there. And Allie was most definitely drafted as a pitcher. Picked in the 2010 draft. Pitched in 2011. Didn't even get hitting stats until 2012. Cease famously hit 100 mph his senior year right before hurting his elbow. I already discussed it with Regular Show that 100 isn't some magical number. It's high velocity in general. I personally just use 100 because there literally hasn't been one case that I have seen where a prep pitcher has avoided a major arm injury AND been productive at the big league level. Small sample size or not, that's ugly, and shouldn't be ignored. Someone will do (or maybe already has and I haven't seen it yet?) a research about the future health of prep pitchers that regularly hit in the high 90's. I fully expect that class of players to have a substantially higher rate of serious arm injury than the rest of pitchers. With the bolded, are you actually arguing that higher velocity doesn't increase the odds of a major arm injury? Because science clearly disagrees with you. Numerous studies have already shown this.

I am quite intrigued with both Hoese and Greg Jones at 27.

Yeah, I'm sure you could do the research and find that even hitting 97 or 98 as a prep is a harbinger of future injury. I'll let someone else do that research and then I'll read it. For now, I will just continue to use 100 as any easy benchmark for a guaranteed major arm injury in the future.

Granted 6 guys is better than 2-3, but it’s still 6 guys with varying degrees of bust/success (there’s two outright busts in that group) to draw a broad conclusion from. Is 100 the difference between injury and no injury? Espino is the best prospect in that bunch on his draft day (if it were today) too, not even close. Two were already hurt, three didn’t have a breaking ball, and he’s way more physically talented than Bundy There are more than 6. That was off the top of my head, as I was on my phone and didn't want to research. Here are a few more after a very cursory google search: Stetson Allie Mike Nikorak Jameson Taillon Lance McCullers Jr. Michael Main Nick Travieso There are probably several more if I cared enough to dig deep. Let's check the collective health of these players, as my original statement was that, and I quote, "He has hit 100 multiple times as a prepster, which has been damn near the equivalent of a death sentence for a pitcher's health going forward." Kolek - TJS Greene - TJS Bundy - TJS Pint - Torn UCL, opted for rest and rehab but missed all of 2018 and has been predicably terrible this year Giolito - TJS Cease - TJS Allie - Didn't last long enough as a pitcher to need TJS Nikorak - TJS Taillon - TJS McCullers Jr - TJS Main - Avoided any surgeries that I can see Travieso - Shoulder surgery So, that's 10 of 12 of these highly drafted prep players that hit 100 mph and had a major arm injury, with the other 2 non-injured players busting spectacularly. TJS is certainly not uncommon, but it's nowhere close to this prevalent in the rest of the pitching community. SSS of course, but until we start seeing some high velocity prep guys stay healthy, it's an overwhelmingly good bet that a guy like Espino will suffer a major arm injury in the near future. As such, no thank you.

This isn’t 2000. There have been guys hitting 100 seemingly every year. Off the top of my head you have Tyler Kolek, Hunter Greene, Dylan Buddy, Dylan Cease, Riley Pint, Lucas Giolito, etc. So many arm surgeries in that group already, and those are just the ones I could think of without researching.

I’m really intrigued the Cubs taking a HS arm at 27, especially if it’s one of Espino or Allan, and I might like Espino a little more today. Espino’s got the velocity but I think just as impressive is the two distinct breaking balls, a changeup that may become more of a weapon in pro ball because of the velocity difference and movement, a pro ready and prototypical starting pitcher’s frame, and the lower body power, flexibility, and athleticism... Today probably Espino, Allan, maybe Malone, and Goss are the only HS pitchers I’d like the Cubs to consider for 27. Malone lacks deception ane I wonder if he’ll be hittable in the pros No thanks to Espino. He has hit 100 multiple times as a prepster, which has been damn near the equivalent of a death sentence for a pitcher's health going forward. I agree about Allan, but I think he goes way before the Cubs have a chance at him. And no thanks to Wilson, although he would be much preferable to fellow ACC SS Logan Davidson.

That's the silver lining for me. Highly doubt he gets dealt for bullpen help now. I doubt Hoerner would’ve been traded for bullpen help, I think the FO is too high on him, if he gets moved it will be for a controlled SP or bat. I’d say the same about Amaya but with Willy back to being good there is some redundancy there and I’d be more willing to move Amaya for “just” bullpen help (but it would have to be like Doolittle, Treinen or something elite and controlled for another year+). I don't think there was a huge chance of it happening, but Nico being out another month just drops those chances even further. To clarify, I wasn't insinuating the FO would deal him for a rental, like Gleyber was. We all know that was a perfect storm that won't come around again. But a really good reliever that is under control for multiple seasons? I absolutely could have seen the FO dealing Nico for a guy like that.

To be fair to the Cubs, I wouldn't necessarily call this a "misdiagnosis" because hairline fractures can be very difficult to discover. Sometimes a person doesn't even realize they have one or had one -- they just endure the pain (which can vary from moderate to severe). Nico probably started swinging the bat in light workouts and started noticing the pain from swinging in his wrist, but otherwise felt fine. This news sucks, but he should be fully healthy in like a month. Plenty of time left in the season at AA and we were never planning on calling him up this year. I also seriously doubt we'll include him in any trade package. That's the silver lining for me. Highly doubt he gets dealt for bullpen help now.

He was a Rule V pick this past offseason, if memory serves me right.

Fully agreed. Jones is the fastest player in the draft, and he posted videos on his Instagram with him having a vertical over 40 inches and a huge standing broad jump (couldn't make out the distance).

Those ground outs, though! The velo is back up, only 1 walk and no wild pitches! There's hope for this guy yet! Now do it again... Don't do it to yourself. Albertos will break your heart.

0 HRs allowed is the biggest positive for me with Richan so far. That was his bugaboo in college. Very likely that he starts allowing them again once it heats up, but here's hoping he can keep avoiding them. ?? As a freshman sure, but he gave up 6 in his last 165+ innings at school. His knocks were not having high end velocity or stuff and being hittable (183 hits in those 165 and change innings)... 5 HRs allowed as a Junior while playing his games in the college equivalent of the FSL. That’s not good. But if you would rather I have said “hard contact allowed”, the point remains. Guys can get by with Richan’s mediocre stuff if they can induce weak contact. As one of his most outspoken critics on here, I was really skeptical that he could ever do that as a pro. So far, he’s doing an alright job.

0 HRs allowed is the biggest positive for me with Richan so far. That was his bugaboo in college. Very likely that he starts allowing them again once it heats up, but here's hoping he can keep avoiding them.

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