CubfaninCA

Now, how much value does that have compared to the actual ability of getting on base? To me, the ability to distract some of the lesser pitchers isn't nearly as important as the ability to get on 1B. Obviously obp is more important, but ideally you want someone w/ good obp and speed. Pierre fits both.

If pitchers get distracted, then why did the person following Pierre perform worse when Pierre was on base more? Apparently, Castillo's not good @ hitting w/ a guy on first. Small sample size considering the many, many speedy leadoff men who have played baseball... And yet a very sizable sample for the exact individual we're talking about. Can we see the effects from some of these other speedy leadoff men? It's 1 out of hundreds of examples. You guys should be the one's proving it doesn't exist since you're challenging around 100 years of conventional wisdom.

If pitchers get distracted, then why did the person following Pierre perform worse when Pierre was on base more? Apparently, Castillo's not good @ hitting w/ a guy on first. Small sample size considering the many, many speedy leadoff men who have played baseball...

I'd like to believe this. Have you anything to back it up with? Pierre has never scored more than 108 runs in a season. If he was good at throwing off pitcher's rhythm, wouldn't he have an extremely high run scoring rate considering guys like Carlos Delgado, Miguel Cabrera and Todd Helton have been hitting right behind him during his career? Mark Loretta scored 108 runs in 2004 hitting primarily 2nd in the Padres order. He doesn't have any speed to speak of. How can he score the same amount of runs in a season as someone like Pierre, who can throw off a pitcher's rhythm? Does Pierre have some sort of special "runs scored per chances" ratio that other not so speedy high run scoring players don't? I'm not against speed. I'm against sacrificing OBP for speed. Putting Pierre @ leadoff isn't sacrificing OBP. His obp is right there w/ the great Walker. I have over 100 years of baseball on my side. Pierre's a "prototypical leadoff man." I'll stick w/ what hundreds of managers have went with...

Yes.

If a pitcher is thrown for a loop b/c Pierre is on base, he's probably weak mentally and unable to handle pressure. That likely means he's not that good to begin with and lacks confidence. You don't see good pitchers get rattled when a fast runner is on 1B for a reason. Then, did Pierre impact the pitcher or did the weak mental state of the pitcher impact it? I blame the pitcher & not credit the runner. That pitcher likely gets rattled even with a slow runner, b/c the leadoff runner and he's afraid of the big inning. I agree strong pitchers are unlikely to get rattled, but the Cubs need all the help they can get. Some weak pitchers give them trouble too.

I'm sick of the disregard for psychology. It offends my intelligence.

I don't think anyone is arguing the importance of a leadoff hitter. However, what I think people are arguing is what is important to have in a leadoff hitter. Running fast isn't at the top of the list. Getting on base is. If Pierre doesn't hit over .300, his OBP won't be all that great. The only other thing he provides is speed, and I don't care how fast he can run, his speed is worthless if he's not on base to use it. Pierre is a decent leadoff hitter. He's shown that there are seasons where he can be among the league's best table-setters. He's also had two seasons where he probably would have been better off batting eighth. Regardless, he's an improvement over Neifi Perez and the 2005 version of Corey Patterson. But I would have been just as happy had the Cubs plugged Walker into the leadoff spot, pencilled Murton in as the #2 hitter, and overpaid for a better right-fielder either via trade or free agency. As for the Murton vs. Pierre issue, I think there's a very good chance that Murton could outproduce Pierre in 2006...if he's given 500+ plate appearances. This is all moot though. If the Cubs are going to contend, they need decent years out of both players. Well put. Pierre has had over 700 plate appearances in each of the last 3 years and he's scored no more than 100 runs in any of those years. He's had Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Delgado and Todd Helton hitting behind him during that span. He's durable, I'll give him that. But, anyone who can supply a respectable OBP at the top of the order can score 100 runs, speed or no speed, in 700 plate appearances. Grady Sizemore scored 1 more run than Pierre last year in 120 less plate appearances. Grady probably possesses speed more like Murton than Pierre. David Dellucci had 426 plate appearances in the lead off spot last year, and scored 76 times. That's 275 less plate appearances than Pierre. Dellucci is slower than molasses. Who will ever forget Mark Bellhorn's run at the lead off spot back in 2002, when he scored 48 runs in just 250 plate appearances. That's almost 1/3 of the trips to the plate as Pierre last year, or the year before that, or even the year before that. Bellhorn is probably slower than Dellucci. The Cubs used Todd Walker as a lead off hitter in 2004. He had 260 plate appearances and 45 runs scored. Given another 440 plate appearances to equal 700 like Pierre, I don't think it's a stretch to think Walker might have been able to achieve 100. We all know how fast Walker is. Walker isn't as durable as Pierre, I'll give you that. And he is on the wrong side of 30. Walker got next to no at bats in the lead off spot in 2005 after doing a tremendous job in 2004. Meanwhile, pathetic excuse of a lead off hitter after another ran out there day after day. I have no doubt Murton would have been better than most of them. Speed is nice. But, I see no evidence that Pierre's speed creates more production than a less speedy guy who can hit for more power and get on base at a higher percentage. Getting on base for a lead off hitter is priority #1. Staying on base so that the big boppers can bring you in is priority #2. I don't dislike Pierre. I'm just not all that enamored with him. Pierre and Walker at the top of the order could be a nice tandem for our production team of Lee and Ramirez. But, would it be more productive than Matt Murton hitting 1st and Walker hitting 2nd? Murton was on pace to score close to 90 runs hitting mostly at the bottom of the order of a really bad offensive team last year in 700 plate appearances. Walker 2.5m, Murton 350K, Pierre 6m. I like Pierre in general, but he's overpriced, I felt we overpaid in talent to get him, and he wasn't the biggest need on this team. Overall improvement in OBP was the major need of this team, and they traded for a guy fresh off a .326 OBP season. He doesn't draw walks, and this team needs guys who can draw walks AND provide quality offensive production. Pierre & Walker > Murton & Walker. Great speed can throw some pitcher's off rhythm. This is especially beneficial at the beginning of a game.

He's a "mere 6 or 7 hitter" only because Dusty is likely to put him there (or lower). He could hit 2nd, and outproduce Pierre, or hit 7th and outproduce Pierre. Either way, he's better. And when you consider the Cubs at least have Pie in the minors who could be a decent CF to replace Pierre, while they have no corner OF depth, the whole "value" thing could go further in Murton's direction. I recall you preferring Murton as the 4th outfielder. Has Murton's stock went up in your opinion or do you just really dislike Pierre?? I won't answer for Goony, but Murton is a fourth outfielder for a team that has competent outfielders. He would be a 4th outfielder on the Mets for example. Pierre is a one trick pony. If his BABIP isn't high his speed will add little value becuase he doesn't walk. Aside from "proven closer" I have a hard time thinking of a more overvalued faux-position then leadoff man. Considering 3 & 4 is where teams put their most productive hitters, the leadoff spots pretty important.

His speed has value, and it's already reflected in his production by means of beat out singles, extra bases on balls in the gap, stolen bases, etc. Murton's still pretty likely to match or better Pierre's production, and there's not a lot outside of that helping Pierre's cause. Speed can't only be measured as only tangible. This has been argued over and over here though, so I'll leave it at that. Whatever you want to attribute to speed, Murton is a pretty fast guy as well. There's not an enormous difference. Top 10 speed guy vs. middle of the packer?? Can't agree.

He's a "mere 6 or 7 hitter" only because Dusty is likely to put him there (or lower). He could hit 2nd, and outproduce Pierre, or hit 7th and outproduce Pierre. Either way, he's better. And when you consider the Cubs at least have Pie in the minors who could be a decent CF to replace Pierre, while they have no corner OF depth, the whole "value" thing could go further in Murton's direction. I recall you preferring Murton as the 4th outfielder. Has Murton's stock went up in your opinion or do you just really dislike Pierre??

His speed has value, and it's already reflected in his production by means of beat out singles, extra bases on balls in the gap, stolen bases, etc. Murton's still pretty likely to match or better Pierre's production, and there's not a lot outside of that helping Pierre's cause. Speed can't only be measured as tangible. This has been argued over and over here though, so I'll leave it at that.

Pierre's more valuable than Murton. I think the obvious indicator is that Pierre's one of the best leadoff men in the game and Murton's currently a mere 6 or 7 hitter. Pierre's speed is quite an important asset.

I found this statement shocking, and it further shows how delusional Bowden is: :shock: Newsflash to Bowden...."It will take a lot more than Soriano to net Adam Dunn." But for those who clamor for Soriano, yet discount Walker because of his defense, read this: That's not a player we need, especially if it's going to cost us Murton. Since I'm a betting man, I bet Vidro's gone soon. They gave up too much to get Soriano. The Cubs need to stay far away from Vidro. They've had way too many guys like him recently. He'll be on the DL by May.

Absolutely absurd translation. There's no guarantees for any of these guys right now. They'll have to earn it in spring training & that's how it should be. Let the stretching begin though.

I like Murton, but he's far from an untouchable. He may not be more than a .750 ops LF. Ideally, you want more pop from LF. If it was Pie for Soriano, I'd be adamantly opposed. However, Murton's not a big loss. The Cubs could always sign Cliff Floyd for LF for 2007.

Runs at home - 469 (278/341/509/850) Runs away - 396 (258/318/430/747) This tells me if the Rangers had played all their games on the road, they'd still have been 3rd in runs scored, although by a much smaller margin (Cleveland was 4th at 790 runs). Actually they'd be 7th overall (right behind St. Louis), if you just go by runs on the road. Of course, to be fair, you have factor in they play lots of games in Oakland, Anaheim & Seattle.

CF, 2B/Util, 2B ---- CF, SS/Util, RF Not a very fair comparison. Expound.. Those 3 guys had about 1500 or so at-bats in the 1,2 & 5 spots.

What kind of question is this? there's a budget. Paying more in contracts means we're closer to maxing out that budget (or, maybe, we're already close enough that we can't go that much higher anyway). That's like saying "I make $50k a year, what difference does it make if I eat at McDonalds each day or Rosebud each day for this entire month, since the total costs will each be a small percentage of my income for the year." "Maxing out" for who? Matt Lawton was the best guy available last trade deadline. Last I saw, the Cubs are at $96 million. They can afford to go to $105. So you suggest paying ~8% of the probable budget on a marginal upgrade (or downgrade, if you're not memerized by Soriano's mythical 30/30 numbers) simply because we have the cash and thereby tying our hands for later based on the fact that last year, one of the worst years for free agency and trading deadline acquisitions in recent history, our trade didn't pan out? Just saying it's not an awful idea to put 8% of the budget into a top 30-40 slugging guy. It's reasonable.

You are so wrong. Getting on base is essential to scoring runs. Why don't you check Soriano's road stats as well. And the fact that Murton makes $9 million less than Soriano does matter. RBIs are not a real stat. So Soriano at 30 HRs and a .250 average and no walks makes him worse than Burnitz offensively and terrrible defensively. Soriano would be a disaster. Don't be bamboozled by meaningless numbers. How was Texas 15th in obp and 3rd in runs?? The Cubs big problem last year was underutlizing their 3 & 4 hitters. The 1, 2 & 5 hitters were awful. Pierre, Hairston & Soriano >>>>>>>>> Patterson, Neifi & Burnitz

It means no pickup at the trade deadline and no possibility of discovering our weakness and strengthening it for the playoffs (ideally). The weaknesses are obvious (Neifi, Jones & Dusty). Guys like Tejada & Abreu will cost half the farm.

What kind of question is this? there's a budget. Paying more in contracts means we're closer to maxing out that budget (or, maybe, we're already close enough that we can't go that much higher anyway). That's like saying "I make $50k a year, what difference does it make if I eat at McDonalds each day or Rosebud each day for this entire month, since the total costs will each be a small percentage of my income for the year." "Maxing out" for who? Matt Lawton was the best guy available last trade deadline. Last I saw, the Cubs are at $96 million. They can afford to go to $105.

Why does $8 million more matter?? (Walker will probably be dealt if this deal happens so deduct $2 mil). The Cubs don't play in Oakland or Cincinati.

I'm not advocating such a deal, but Pierre, Hairston, Lee, ARam, Sori, Jones, Barrett & Nef is better than the current lineup. Soriano's quite an upgrade over Jones in the 5 hole & I wouldn't be surprised to see Soriano put up an .850 ops playing the NL Central & this is his contract season. Also, there isn't much of a drop in obp between Hairston & Walker in the 2 hole. Further,, the Cubs could resign Soriano. Money, a hitter's park & hitter's division, & great fans could change his mind.

He doesn't take walks. As long as there's on base guys batting 1-4, I'm fine w/ a slugger like Soriano. Can't have everything.