Aaron_Kennelly

I like Wade.

hahaha

It's very possible. Then again, he's also taken Javy Paths to an .800 OPS in 2015 and 2016, as well.

Javy's slugging % is higher than Rizzo's now... lol. What the hell?

Javy is either the best player in the league or the worst player in the league. It would be easier if he'd just tell us which Javy is going to show up so we know when to bench him.

We got the sticks going now!

So there was a Fangraphs piece on him today, and I disagree with a lot in it. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kyle-schwarber-needs-to-be-himself/ The basic premise is that by making more contact, Schwarber is becoming worse. He needs to go back to the lower-contact version that just lets it rip and either swings and misses or hits bombs. He's not pulling the ball as much and he's hitting it on the ground more. Bad things! Except, as we were discussing in yesterday's game thread, it's really only been a funk that he's been in for a week-and-a-half. Before Sunday's game, his GB% was exactly where it was at in 2015. And he's since put 6 consecutive batted balls on the ground. And his Contact% has been the same all year. That's not changed. So if he was able to make more contact and still get the ball in the air before this funk started, I don't buy the idea that he's not getting the ball in the air simply because he's trying to be a contact hitter. Until he started sucking ass last week, he was doing both. Also, I don't think there's necessarily a problem with him not pulling the ball as much. For one, the article even mentions how much opposite-field power he showed in 2015. His wOBA on balls pulled last year was actually lower than balls hit up the middle or the other way. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2015%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&player_lookup%5B%5D=656941&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&metric_1=h_launch_direction&metric_1_gt=15&metric_1_lt=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=woba&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&min_abs=0#results https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2015%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&player_lookup%5B%5D=656941&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&metric_1=h_launch_direction&metric_1_gt=&metric_1_lt=15&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=woba&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&min_abs=0#results I think him pulling the ball is a good thing. That's where the mega-slugger guys do their damage. Him pulling the ball is good... when he's pulling it in the air with authority. But most of his pulling in 2015 was actually pulling the ball on the ground. His fly balls were spread out pretty evenly. His ground balls and, to a lesser extent, his line drive were pulled. His problem this year has been that he really hasn't been pulling any balls in the air. That's certainly a problem. Here are his spray charts from 2015 and then 2017 from Baseball Savant. http://i.imgur.com/krQvSrZ.png http://i.imgur.com/QM2HwP8.png He definitely needs to start pulling the ball in the air more. But, also, look at all those pulled ground balls in 2015. They didn't go for hits very often. http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_hc_spray.php?s_type=15&gFilt=&time=month&player=656941&startDate=01/01/2015&endDate=01/01/2016&minmax=ci&var=count&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1 So I see no problem with him trying to go the other way on tough pitches that he can't pull with authority. The problem is that he isn't pulling with authority any of the pitches he should be. If he wants to slap a few more line drives or grounders into left field with two strikes on him, I'm all for that. He doesn't have to try to pull everything. He's got power everywhere. His main problem right now is that he's not hitting anything hard or in the air, though.

Miggy is proof that Ben Zobrist's Game 7, 10th inning hit opened up a portal into some Bizarro World alternate timeline. Trump is president. The Cubs suck. Jason Heyward's slugging% is higher than Schwarber's. Miggy is hitting .382.

That is fantastic.

This year's version is going to be our 108 favorite home runs given up by Cubs' pitchers.

In the Javy article, I also argued that Ben Zobrist was doing well with the only peripheral stats that actually matter in Spring Training. "He's simply being BABIP'd! That won't continue into the regular season!" A .237 BABIP has left him with a .218 average. Also in that article... "Addison Russell is definitely going to hit for a ton of power!" A .144 ISO, lower than he was even as a rookie. I also wrote this sentence last year:

FREAK OUT ABOUT THE ROTATION *Duke writes an article suggesting that Javier Baez might not strike out as much* Baez is striking out 30% of the time. *Duke writes an article suggesting that Kyle Schwarber is about to lay waste to all pitchers in his path* Schwarber is slashing .154/.254/.231 since then. *Duke writes an article suggesting that better days are ahead for the starting rotation* The rotation's ERA since then is 11.05. This is not a drill! They are all going to die.

Yeah, I'm clueless as to what's going on with Schwarber. It looks like his funk has been going on since about April 23rd. On the 22nd, he went 0-3, but he walked twice and the two balls he put in play were line drives hit at least 104 mph. He had an .818 OPS after that game. Since the next day, he's not really changed his approach too much. He's swinging a little bit more and chasing a few more pitches out of the zone. But it's nothing too bad. It's not like he's went Javy. Probably just some SSS noise. Very minimal differences. He's also made contact on 73% of his swings since then. Again, only minimal differences. It's not his approach. And here is how pitchers were attacking him before that date: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=16478&position=OF&ss=2017-04-02&se=2017-04-22&type=0&hand=all&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=bat&pitch=&season=all And since then: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=16478&position=OF&ss=2017-04-23&se=2017-04-30&type=0&hand=all&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=bat&pitch=&season=all Not much different. And looking at what kind of pitches he's being thrown, it looks really similar, too. It's a little complicated because we faced the knuckler during that period, but I don't notice any changes in how he's being pitched. Here is his average exit velocity before that date, though: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2017%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=2017-04-01&game_date_lt=2017-04-22&player_lookup%5B%5D=656941&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=launch_speed&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&min_abs=0#results And since then: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2017%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=2017-04-23&game_date_lt=&player_lookup%5B%5D=656941&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=launch_speed&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&min_abs=0#results He's been putting up shitty exit velocities in every game: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2017%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=2017-04-23&game_date_lt=&player_lookup%5B%5D=656941&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name-date&sort_col=launch_speed&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&min_abs=0#results And his average launch angle is lower than it was: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2017%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=2017-04-01&game_date_lt=2017-04-22&player_lookup%5B%5D=656941&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=launch_angle&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&min_abs=0#results https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2017%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=2017-04-23&game_date_lt=&player_lookup%5B%5D=656941&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=launch_angle&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&min_abs=0#results He's just in a funk. I'm not sure why, and I can't point to any reason. The evidence is becoming clearer that my article killed him.

I don't have a clue. He's just not hitting the ball hard. I can't tell what the deal is.

lol Willson to Miggy for the putout

Grimm horsefeathering sucks this year.

Or that.

Great time for your second grand slam, Willy.

Welp, the Brett Anderson idea isn't going to work out.

I said in the GT last night that it seems like Russell is really getting beat by, and teams are attacking him, up in the zone a lot lately. Anyone have stats to back this up? Yep. Last year, he was hammering pitches up in the second-half of the season. He had a .401 wOBA from July on, in Zones 1,2,3,11,12,13,22: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=1%7C2%7C3%7C11%7C12%7C13%7C22%7C&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2016%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=2016-07-01&game_date_lt=2016-12-31&player_lookup%5B%5D=608365&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=woba&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&min_abs=0#results This year, he's got a .133 wOBA in those zones. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=1%7C2%7C3%7C11%7C12%7C13%7C22%7C&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2017%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=2017-04-01&game_date_lt=2017-04-30&player_lookup%5B%5D=608365&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=woba&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&min_abs=0#results From the start of the year through April 21, he was seeing 12.02% of pitches in those zones. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=1%7C2%7C3%7C11%7C12%7C13%7C22%7C&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2017%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=2017-04-02&game_date_lt=2017-04-21&player_lookup%5B%5D=608365&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=pitch_percent&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&min_abs=0#results Since April 22, he's seen 21.48% of pitches in those zones. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=1%7C2%7C3%7C11%7C12%7C13%7C22%7C&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2017%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=2017-04-22&game_date_lt=2017-04-30&player_lookup%5B%5D=608365&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=pitch_percent&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&min_abs=0#results

6 of Jason Vosler's 21 career home runs have come in the last 6 days.

Almora is going to be a stud. I'm not sure when I passed from willing it to be true to actually believing it. But I firmly believe it now.

Candelario with a double and a homer in his first two ABs today. Happ has the day off.

I was watching the Red Sox feed online the other day. And their announcers were talking about Benintendi. And they said they'd talked to his dad, who was in town, and he said the Cubs had told them before the draft that they were going to take him if he were still around at 9. Theo, Jed and Jason absolutely loved Benintendi, probably on Schwarber-levels pre-draft. They saw him at Fayetteville like 3 different weekends, which is unheard of when you're picking that "low." I loved him, too. And I don't really follow college prospects that much. But I hopped on the bandwagon after hearing that we liked him. I'm still so sad about missing out on him.

I was watching the Red Sox feed online the other day. And their announcers were talking about Benintendi. And they said they'd talked to his dad, who was in town, and he said the Cubs had told them before the draft that they were going to take him if he were still around at 9.