Arnold Layne
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Everything posted by Arnold Layne
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Right. Get your most consistent hitters at the top. That is not Soriano. He's way too streaky to be batting in that spot, with too low of an OBP. There's also the importance of making a starting pitcher work a bit more, etc. That's not Soriano either. I don't think it's any coincidence that the Cubs had the best post season success with a traditional leadoff hitter in 2003(of course Wood and Prior were the main reason). Lofton was someone who had smart at bats, hitting the ball to all fields. I think a consistent bat is important for the 1 hole, and in the playoffs when you are in these 1 run deathmatches, having someone with a brain getting the most at bats is a good thing. Soriano plays dumb baseball, and he sets that meme from the very beginning of every Cubs game.
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Please let me know who is a good bet to perform better in the playoffs this year. It's not always about performing "better", but just being able to play as well in the post season as you do in the regular season, a level of consistency under the big lights: Mariano Rivera. Manny Ramirez. Josh Becket. Derek Jeter. David Ortiz. Kevin Youkilis.
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Maybe I wasn't clear - I feel that over 100 AB is reasonable but not ideal for post season performance predictors. The post season in baseball means better competition, better pitching and a external set of factors such as higher pressure and colder weather. Most players do not get a lot of AB's in the post season. With that said, 100 AB is a reasonable, although not ideal number to go by. It's not just a "crapshoot" as some would like to believe. Some players just do better in the post season than others. As for the regular season, we can easily predict expected performance based on a long line of numbers. The post season is much harder, but there are numbers we can use to formulate at least some idea of performance. For example, it's almost a fact that Soriano has horrible OBP in the post season and is wasted in the leadoff spot.
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That's stupid. A guy with a sub .300 OBP... what guy? Corey Patterson? Neifi? Shawon Dunston? Dave Kingman? Alfonso Soriano. How about his lifetime OBP of .326 for starters? How about his playoff OBP of .263 in 170 AB? If you want that OBP # for leadoff, enjoy. Most sane people would not, whether post or regular season.
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This whole argument comes down to whether you think a guy with a sub .300 OBP should bat leadoff. If you think that a sub .300 OBP at leadoff is a good recipe for playoff wins, then by all means enjoy Alf at #1.
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I think +100 is a reasonable although not ideal indicator of post season ability. Some guys are cut out for the pressure, some are not. I'm saying they should not be batting leadoff. So, the Astros shouldn't have batted Biggio lead-off in all of those postseasons? They were also a bad post season team.
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I think +100 is a reasonable although not ideal indicator of post season ability. Some guys are cut out for the pressure, some are not. I'm saying they should not be batting leadoff.
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Only one of those players has more PS at bats than Soriano, and that's Dimaggio. I wouldn't consider anything under 100 AB in the post season an indicator. The rest: 64 AB, .314 OBP for Cobb 129 AB, .320 OBP for Mcgwire 47 AB, .317 OBP for Helton 140 AB, .304 OBP for Schmidt 106 AB .354 OBP for Bagwell 167 AB .297 OBP for Biggio 120 AB .301 OBP Piazza 68 AB, .315 OBP for Cabrera 174 AB, .263 OBP Soriano
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As well thought out as a Dusty Baker lineup. There's really little point in explaining yet again why it's piss-poor to construct a team and/or a lineup for the regular season around the tiny sample size of 6 playoff games since you show zero sign of realizing how ridiculous an idea that is. If you're looking at those games as the definitive "proof" as to how a player should be handled in the regular season then Aramis needs to be benched or traded or released ASAP. Those Soriano numbers were his enitre post season career. He's awful. Which is a whole 172 ABs. And those ABs are split into 18-30 AB segments. There's too much volatility in small numbers like that to really make a good evaluation. 15 good at bats could increase just his average by 20-30 points. Small sample sizes aren't reliable indicators on what a player can do. Should Vladimir Guerrero (.623 career postseason OPS) bat high in the order in the playoffs? Is he "awful" as you called Soriano? Vlad also has a .329 OBP post season, which is not good, but not horrible either. Soriano is looking at a .263 OBP in the post season. He has proven he can't hit or get on base, which means there is no way he should bat leadoff in the post. Should we stick Vlad in the leadoff spot?
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As well thought out as a Dusty Baker lineup. There's really little point in explaining yet again why it's piss-poor to construct a team and/or a lineup for the regular season around the tiny sample size of 6 playoff games since you show zero sign of realizing how ridiculous an idea that is. If you're looking at those games as the definitive "proof" as to how a player should be handled in the regular season then Aramis needs to be benched or traded or released ASAP. Those Soriano numbers were his enitre post season career. He's awful.
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As well thought out as a Dusty Baker lineup.
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Here's a very nice set of reasons why Soriano should never be put back at leadoff: .213 BA .263 OBP .299 SLG .562 OPS 174 AB Some nice playoff numbers there. This defense of Soriano at leadoff simply needs to end. It hasn't worked for the Cubs. The Cubs have improved dramatically since removing him from that spot, and are now on a roll of sorts. The leadoff hitter should have an OBP over .350. Making the pitcher throw more pitches so teammates can see what the pitcher has to offer "live" is also an important skill. Getting the pitch count up on playoff pitching is also important. There's more to that position than meets the eye. Soriano should never bat there again.
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Yeah, sit on him judge! Keep that sub .300 OBP at the leadoff spot where it belongs!
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7/4 Brewers (Looper) @ Cubs (Harden) 12:05, WGN
Arnold Layne replied to islandcub's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
Yeah, someone changed a lineup that was working. -
Soriano is one of the worst hitters in post season history. Not the guy you want starting off your games at that particular point in time.
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I bet you said the same thing about Theriot too. Yeah they have higher upside but if Fuld can sustain he brings a suitable style of play to the leadoff spot. This isn't Kiddie Corner Training Skool. He needs to play well for the majority of the year considering his contract. Your apologizing for this outfield is becoming legend. ....a $14 million player who is used in a platoon. That tells you quite a bit. Bradley has a recent track record of success at the DH spot which keeps his legs fresh. Fuku has no real track record of success in MLB. We've seen that experiment against real pitching. I believe it's in the "0-6" file.
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Eh not really. Hoff plays OF and so can Fox. You seem to be hung up on this Fuld thing. Fukudome isn't really a full time player either at this point in his MLB career, yet he's out there. Milton Bradley seems to be a part time player too, yet he is anointed RF. Some would say doing the same thing over and over while expecting different results is foolish. There's really not much reason to play Fuku any more at all really. He should be the first Cubs outfielder to go. Makes sense but he'll probably injure himself soon anyway. He needs to be moved to 5th/6th and stay there for good. That's about right. No he shouldn't. Hey that looks like the lineup that hasn't worked all year. Neither is watching your team go down the drain while doing nothing. Did your girlfriend cheat on you with a gritty guy?
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There's no point in trading anyone for anything. What you see is what you get this year. Basically a .500 team with a terrible outfield that needs to be thinned. Keep Fox around and see if he can handle 3B and shuffle Aram over to 1B when Lee leaves. At some point the Cubs are going to need to find some young position players who can mash because they are in a serious bind with that disgrace of an outfield. To answer the OP, you have to find a way to keep both up. Both have more value than Reed Johnson IMHO. Same for Miles and Patton.
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Fuld as in the guy that isn't a good hitter? I'd say that makes him a bad candidate. Fuld as in the hot hand. Besides, we all know it will only last a few games, so why not experiment. Because it's a bad idea. Worse than having a guy with a sub .300 OBP in the leadoff spot, and a guy with a .125 OBP in the leadoff spot for the playoffs? Doesn't get much worse than that.
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How is Fuku any better than a career minor leaguer at this point? This guy nosedives in the second half faster than a kamikazee pilot.
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Kaplin is OK. Not great, not bad. But he's right on this point. The Cubs outfield is one of the worst in baseball, both in terms of production, defense and salary. If they are not playing well, other players should be given a chance to take those positions. If the goal is a world series, no single player or contract should get in the way of what is best for the team itself. I would much rather see competition and the possibility of fresh faces than guys who just aren't getting it done being placated.
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Not me. Wait. You would take a guy who got sent down from AAA to AA last year because he wasn't that good to a guy who's been on a MLB roster for quite a while now? I hate Miles but at this point he's better than Fuld. I hope I'm wrong and Fuld continues to play well but odds are that he will be pretty bad eventually. Miles isn't even ML caliber, much less be starting in the lineup. I'm not saying Fuld is, but at least his contract is easier to justify then Miles. That doesn't make him any less of a bad player just because he's cheaper. I'd rather have a bad player and more flexibility than just a bad player.
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I remember awhile ago that Soriano said he was willing to help the team anyway he can. Moving off of leadoff spot for spell could really help the Cubs and Soriano. The "wait for Soriano to hit a solo shot" plan hasn't exactly been a recipe for winning playoff games. Move him out of lead off for good.
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7/2 Cubs (Dempster) vs. Brewers (McClung) 7:05CT CSN
Arnold Layne replied to E.J.'s topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
The just needed a spark. -
7/2 Cubs (Dempster) vs. Brewers (McClung) 7:05CT CSN
Arnold Layne replied to E.J.'s topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
Offense has found it's needed spark. Nice.