Cubswin11

Good. If the bats are gonna stay sucky, bring in the weather that makes the other teams suck too.

Where’s the game thread for today? We start in ~15 min

https://twitter.com/wcontreras40/status/1308961366062108674?s=21

What was the main reason then? They had a ton of hard hit balls go for outs, in a 1 run game, that’s kind of a big deal. probably the same reason the offense has been bad the whole year: they suck. they missed countless terrible pitches right down the middle with no velocity or movement, and they chased garbage our of the zone. complaining about hard hit outs after a performance like that against trevor williams and the pirates is just so ridiculous to me. 8 outs at 90+ MPH, 6 outs at 100+. Thats bad luck. There’s going to be ugly outs always. When the hard hit stuff doesn’t fall it’s going to extra suck. A few of those hard hit balls fall it changes the whole complexion of the game. Again, this overall offense has clear flaws and those showed up tonight as well. But tonight was also a bad luck night. Both can be true.

I mean tonight, yes, batted ball luck was bad and cost them the game. Overall no. They have big flaws. if you think bad luck in any way close to the main reason they lost tonight, then i don't even know what to say. that's crazy bootlicking, even for you What was the main reason then? They had a ton of hard hit balls go for outs, in a 1 run game, that’s kind of a big deal. 8 hits at 90+ MPH went for outs tonight. Tonight was unlucky, the overall makeup of the team is still a problem.

That’s kinda the whole point. You can only hit so many 95-100+ MPH balls. You don’t control where they go. The Cubs have a good amount tonight. you're really determined to make excuses for the cubs if you think luck is even close to the main reason they lost tonight I mean tonight, yes, batted ball luck was bad and cost them the game. Overall no. They have big flaws.

In a 1 run game it kinda matters obviously the point is that it shouldn't be a 1 run game, and they shouldn't need batted ball luck to score more than 1 run against one of the worst pitchers in the league That’s kinda the whole point. You can only hit so many 95-100+ MPH balls. You don’t control where they go. The Cubs have a good amount tonight.

it's true, but i don't want to hear anything about it. it shouldn't matter. In a 1 run game it kinda matters

My god this is some terrible batted ball luck

They’ll win this game

Do your thing Javy

If it was so easy to “just hit it the other way” against the shift more guys would do it. Hitting a baseball is very hard and has never been harder with the velo and movement in the game today. I’m for limiting the number of infielders on being on either side of 2B. Just limit it to 2 players on either side of 2B, you want to put your 2B in short RF still that’s fine but then there’s a big hole up the middle and towards tradition 2B area, etc. OF can’t come past a certain point in either or something as well. As long as it’s not a possible 9th inning/extras game tying or winning run scenario.

If we want any chance at the 2 seed we need to win the next two vs the pirates it would appear. Assuming division record is the first tie breaker. Braves are 1 up on us overall and also 1 up on division record. So we need them to lose at least 1 of their final 2 vs the Marlins here while we win both vs the Pirates to just tie them for that tie breaker. They have the Red Sox this weekend, so tying with them and winning the tie breaker is our best chance at the 2 seed vs outright passing them. IMO.

Maybe they go a little shorter on pitching in the WC round since it’s only 3 games at most. But after that I think at least 1 of the Ryan/Osich/Chafin lefties make it for the sake of handiness (1-2 will make it in the WC round I’d assume), not that it’s deserved, and Rea is probably in the discussion to.

We also clinched a top 2 division spot tonight. The Reds can't jump us since we own the H2H tie breaker (best they can do is tie with us losing out and them winning out) and the Cardinals-Brewers H2H will knock one (possibly both) from passing us. The following is a little murky with the Cardinals most likely playing 58, so the win % will be based on that for them. If we go 0-5 rest of way: Brewers 5-1 to tie, 6-0 to pass Cardinals can't tie (by win%), 4-2 to pass (.534 win % vs .533 win %) If we go 1-4 rest of way: Brewers 6-0 to tie, can't pass (unless they have tie breaker) Cardinals can't tie (by win%), 5-1 to pass (.552 win % vs .550 win %) 2-3 rest of way: Brewers can't tie or or pass Cardinals 6-0 to tie (.567 win% vs .567 win%), can't pass (technically they have like a .5668 win% vs .5666% for us so maybe they can pass by the 4th decimal) or else it's the tie breaker after win%, which IDK who has it or what it is since we tied H2H. Anyone feel free to correct this if it's wrong.

Only the Cubs

Eh, I don’t really care about the last two years. That shouldn’t affect the planning for playoffs. The Cardinals still need to win at a decent clip to pass us and a 3.5 game lead at this point is essentially wrapped up. It’s over 90%. Chafin has been good in the past and he hasn’t sucked. I have personal bias thinking he sucks but he has gotten results. But it was fine spot and time to use him, they have to get him 3-4 outings here over the final week to see if he’s worth rostering for the playoffs. over 90% doesn't mean wrapped up. they should be going for wins right now. 90%+ is very close to being wrapped up and just because the ~2% moon shot happened 2 years ago doesn’t mean it’s any more likely to happen this year or should affect moves now. Not optimizing bullpen moves/lineups the rest of the way to get a dude a start, off day or appearance isn’t a huge deal as we need to sort some stuff out here heading in to the playoffs to figure out the best roster and use of guys to win games then. Going for wins now means you wouldn’t be using Q, Adbert, Chafin, Adam, etc. down the stretch here but you’d be cool using them in the playoffs with little to no appearances now and not knowing how they look or if they even should be rostered? With no off days in the playoffs, plus Wick down, we’re gonna have to dig deeper in the pen than usual. We need to shuffle through some of these guys over the last few games and get them a few outings to see what they have because they’re going to need to pitch some meaningful playoff innings most likely (and we have to figure out who absolutely can’t). We need to know which lefty of Ryan, Chafin, Osich is the “best” choice, we need to know if Q can be used in some capacity and looks normal, Adbert needs innings to see if he’s worthy of a playoff role, Rea probably needs to come back up soon too, to get an inning or three to see if he should be playoff rostered, etc. With the luxury we have of a 3.5 game division lead AND a guaranteed playoff spot no matter what, along with the unique playoff set up/circumstance we are in of having a few moving parts with the pitching (and offense/lineup construction to a lesser degree, since there’s less options/potential solutions), these guys need to and should be getting some innings now. Especially some leverage spots that can be close to playoff like pressure.

After tonight he’s at .260/.300/.350 or so with us. For what he was brought in for (backup OF/pinch hitter/Almora role) that’s “good.” He’s hit the ball hard in to some tough outs too. he was at 0.0 fwar going into today. there is no way you can justify calling his performance with the cubs good. For what he was brought in for and replacing he’s been “good” and basically has provided what was expected. Is what I meant. Like objectively and against the whole league he hasn’t been good, but what we could expect from him and all he needed to be better than he’s been “good” at.

Unless you think we are going to lose out, and even then the Cardinals still need to win 5-6 of their final 9 games (Idk what the exact math is but that has to be close) it effectively is wrapped up. And with this playoff set up, now that we’re in to some degree, I’d rather they be trying some guys and different things out to maximize the playoff roster and decisions vs doing the right leverage moves to win games now. with the way they've finished the last 2 seasons, i'd rather they just try and close out the division before "trying stuff" and dicking around. i know there's no real advantage of winning the division in terms of the postseason, but it still means something. the odds are heavily in their favor, but 3.5 is not wrapped up, especially with all the games the cardinals have left. plus we don't need to see chafin in a tie game to know he sucks Eh, I don’t really care about the last two years. That shouldn’t affect the planning for playoffs. The Cardinals still need to win at a decent clip to pass us and a 3.5 game lead at this point is essentially wrapped up. It’s over 90%. Chafin has been good in the past and he hasn’t sucked. He’s ran ERA/FIP/xFIP in the 3s the last few years with good K rates and hasn’t gotten torched vs RHB like some lefties. I have personal bias thinking he sucks and have never been a fan but he has gotten results. It was fine spot and time to use him, they have to get him 3-4 outings here over the final week to see if he’s worth rostering for the playoffs.

Maybin has been good. And Osich has looked okay despite the results in extremely limited work, lots of Ks and FIP/xFIP in the 1s. I’ve always thought Chafin was just average to bad and that seems to be the case still. Martinez at least hit the ball hard tonight, with KB down I’d play him every day the rest of the way to see if he gets going and can maybe get something to click come playoffs. how has maybin been good? After tonight he’s at .260/.300/.350 or so with us. For what he was brought in for (backup OF/pinch hitter/Almora role) that’s “good.” He’s hit the ball hard in to some tough outs too.

I'm wondering how amused I should be that all 3 deadline acquisitions this year are going to be completely useless. Maybin has been good. And Osich has looked okay despite the results in extremely limited work, lots of Ks and FIP/xFIP in the 1s. I’ve always thought Chafin was just average to bad and that seems to be the case still. Martinez at least hit the ball hard tonight, with KB down I’d play him every day the rest of the way to see if he gets going and can maybe get something to click come playoffs.

i would definitely not say the division is locked up Unless you think we are going to lose out, and even then the Cardinals still need to win 5-6 of their final 9 games (Idk what the exact math is but that has to be close) it effectively is wrapped up. And with this playoff set up, now that we’re in to some degree, I’d rather they be trying some guys and different things out to maximize the playoff roster and decisions vs doing the right leverage moves to win games now.

We have the luxury/margin to try some stuff out with the lead in the division/playoffs locked up. So I’m not too upset using Chafin there, they needed to get him some innings here to see if he can be a playoff option. He’s looked like horsefeathers, so hopefully he’s gone soon.

Maybe Chafin finds what made him a decent reliever over his next 1-2 outings, I don’t like what I’ve seen. Wish they’d call up Marquez.