I really can’t see that, their division is so bad and their offense is good enough and they at least have depth for pitching/pieces left to trade for it (if/when regression hits) that I just can’t see them missing the playoffs. It might only take 85-88 wins to win that division and even if they hit their low end upper projections of low 90s wins they will win that division going away. I could easily see the regression hit and then just being an okay team but still think they have a solid margin of error over the division even with their pitcher regression baked in. Yeah I don't think they'll lose the division, although LA and Seattle are decent enough that they could get breaks going their way a la Arizona/Colorado last year. I'm just really bearish on that rotation, I look at those depth chart projections and I'd take the under on every one of their SP. Toss in some hangover from the bats(or just BABIP regression in the case of Gonzalez/Correa/Altuve) and I think they'll be playing meaningful September games. It's not the most likely outcome, but you can see a world where Verlander tanks, Cole gets hurt, and Keuchel's ERA catches up to his FIP without too much trouble, and all of a sudden you're looking at a rotation full of league average types. The Dodgers are my team for this and my kinda sorta can see them missing the playoffs/not being a super team. Kershaw pitches closer to 150 than 175 innings, Rich Hill pitches like a 38 year old should and gives under 100 innings and deals with the injuries he always has, Alex Wood pitches like a guy who has had injuries his whole career and who saw some periods of alarming velo dips last year, Maeda is just a tick above replacement level when needed to go 180-200 IP, then you have Buehler/Ryu/Urias being the other guys needed and Buehler is going to have his up and downs as a 23 year old and likely hit an innings limit, Ryu has been replacement level since 2014 and Urias has to deal with coming back from TJS and still being really young. The bullpen could have problems getting the ball to Jansen. Turner is already hurt and 33 and wrist injuries are hard to come back from, especially in year, Chris Taylor realizes he's Chris Taylor and not a ~5 WAR player, Bellinger gets adjusted to as a 22 year old and struggles, Puig remains and enigma, and Seagar has that lingering elbow issue.