Cubswin11

Theory: most starters like to start a game with a strike. There is a high likely hood the first pitch of the game will be a FB Now heres the kicker: Almora happens yo be offensively good at one thing: hitting fastballs Proposition: tell Almora to swing at the first pitch he sees while leading off Have you not seen Almora play this year?

I want my sports heros to be superhuman dammit They should be on all the PEDs they can get their hands on

what i wonder is how much of the record this year is real and how much of it is a matter of weird circumstance? You can look at the pythag (I think we're +1) and go hey, despite the problems we're right where we should be. But the season was so weird - the pitching was bad early, but somehow still prevented runs. When the run prevention stopped, the bats woke up. Then when the pitching actually woke up, the bats went to sleep. Like which of those three teams is the real one? If we baseball mogul'd this season and replayed it 100 times are we a 93-win team or something much less. I bet around 93 wins is the average/median when simulated 100 times, there's probably 10 or so times we hit around/over 100 wins and 10 or so times in mid-low 80s. Given everything that's happened we probably are overachieving a bit at this point but this core group of guys does seem to have some resiliency/unquantifiable ability to get through things better than others.

Yeah I agree with this and is the only thing I really disageeed with in TTs post. They just need to be absolutely firm on Morrow’s usage next year and add 1-2 more decent relief options. Besides Morrow they had Strop, Edwards, Cishek, and Wilson, plus Montgomery was in the pen for 90% of Morrow's season. They lead the NL in bullpen ERA despite the injuries to Morrow and Strop. How much more depth is reasonably possible? I should've been a little more clear. I meant more in terms for planning to build/replace guys. I expect 1 to come internally, between Monty and Smyly and 1 to come from FA/trade. Basically the depth is the same in number of quality options, just maybe a different guy or two since Monty might be in the rotation and Wilson might be gone. We're still probably going to have the last spot be a Iowa shuttle spot, I don't expect all the bullpen spots to be taken from FA/trade options.

It’s foolish to think fatigue isn’t playing or has played a role, but yes I agree. It’s not the main or only reason of the dozen plus things that kept us from winning the division with ease. I do think fatigue is a big reason Willy fell off, however.

I disagree. I have no problem with a closer who only goes one inning and doesn't go back to back all that often. The problem is when you don't stick to that plan. The three inning every time closer is a phenomenon that is going to destroy arms in short order and guys are going to refuse to do it in the playoffs very soon. Yeah I agree with this and is the only thing I really disageeed with in TTs post. They just need to be absolutely firm on Morrow’s usage next year and add 1-2 more decent relief options.

So in 50 years all of our grandchildren will be looking back on our tweets on sports, politics and current events and wonder why we attached a porn picture to it.

It probably took Contreras to get him and you don't trade Contreras after the 2017 he had or Javy. If it took some combo of Happ/Almora and minor leaguers I'm sure it would've been done.

Is sustained success really, real at all in MLB? We already have 4 years out of it and still should have anywhere from 3-5 more years, a near 10 year window is really all you can hope to achieve in this sport before hitting a downward cycle unless you get really lucky and there's still time for that with us. If any of the bats hit from this last draft or IFA period or we have a pitcher or 3 emerge things can change a lot.

Trying to look at it from a positive note: Position Players: LF- Schwarber is 6th in fWAR for qualified LF'er and 4th in OPS, in what many think is a down or disappointing year. He has a .870 OPS vs RHP, his overall BB and K rates have moved ~3% in the right direction this year, the defense might not rate this good moving forward but he's fine out there. I think it's safe to pencil him in as a ~3 WAR player next year with some upside to be a little more and that's plenty fine and valuable for your 5th or 6th best position player CF- Heyward/Almora is a fine platoon, for as much as I hate Almora if he's held to just a strict platoon to face LHP he's fine. Heyward looks a little fixed this year and he's probably closer to this player than the black hole he was in previous years. A Heyward/Almora platoon will put up a mid .700 OPS combined with good defense for guys who should be hitting 7/8 in a lineup I'll take it. Happ might still be around too but I suspect he's the odd man out. RF- Bryce, he's Bryce Harper. He'll help mitigate regression/injuries next year or if any of it continues from this year. He should make the offense less volatile and stabilize things and opens up a little more margin for error on performance/injuries moving forward. 3B- KB was on his way to taking it to a new level before the shoulder injury, he was basically right handed Votto. If we want to believe our medical staff that he only needs rest and there's nothing more going on there I think it's fair to say he's going to be his normal 6+ WAR player in some way. Maybe we get closer to 2017 KB with not the crazy HRs but he's going to be productive. SS- Javy is definitely a defensive downgrade over Russell but he can handle it just fine, it's unlikely he has an offensive year like this year again because he's doing some unsustainable things but he's such a baseball freak I'll never doubt him. Add in a Jordy Mercer, Eduardo Escobar type for depth for 1-2 years before Hoerner or Short are ready and to bump Javy to 2B here and there (probably mostly vs LHP). I'm not betting on Javy being this 5 WAR Javy but I could see his 2-3 WAR 2017 being a reasonable projection, ~25 HRs, ~.800 OPS. 2B- Javy will play here some along with Zobrist, a FA signing and Bote or Happ if he's around. Zobrist might fall off but he hasn't yet and still has good contact and on base skills and he handles the position fine defensively 1B- Rizzo is Rizzo and will probably have a season similar to what he's always had since he's been here C- Willy just needs to forget everything he ever learned about Chili Ball and they need to find a real backup catcher so he doesn't need to catch as much to let the wear and tear build up. I truly think a little more regular rest and forgetting Chili ball will have him back to his 2017ish offensive self since he's pretty much the same batter this year over last year outside of the Dongs. Rotation: Q- If he can get the command and Dong suppression back to where it's always been outside of this year it wouldn't be crazy for a low-mid 3 ERA year out of him, but I think expectations should be for a 3.8 or so ERA year and around 3 WAR vs a 3-4+ WAR year. Lester- He could fall off at anytime but he seems to keep figuring out ways to stay effective, some sort of blend between 2017 and 18 is likely, maybe he's a FIP beater again next year like this year. But I'm expecting a ~4 era and ~2 WAR with some stretches of good and bad. Hendricks- Kyle will be Kyle, he might throw 83 MPH fastballs the first month but he'll be his usual good self when it's all said and done. Darvish- He's a wild card, at least he avoided any sort of major surgery and the year off might be a good thing for him to clear his mind a bit between the WS, how he was treated here by the media, his brother in law dying, etc. There's plenty of talent there and he seems to be motivated to come back. I personally have an optimistic outlook that he can be a ~3 WAR pitcher and he'll at least be better than the garbage we were throwing out there in his absence, Chatwood, Underwood, etc. Monty/Hamels/Smyly/Chatwood/Alzolay/FA- Figure out a way to get a ~4.25 ERA and ~2.5 WAR out of the 5th spot and I'd be happy and it should be doable with the options As a whole it won't be an elite unit but will be plenty good with what should be a top 3-5 offense in MLB along with a good defense behind it, I expect somewhere between 15-18 WAR out of this bunch next year (we are going to end up between 12-13 this year) Bullpen: Morrow/Carl/Strop/Cishek is a very good core 4. Hold Morrow to a stricter plan and don't let drinky Joe deviate from it. There's a lot of other internal options and we'll probably add 2-3 more options through FA/Trades. It should be a strength again. Overall I think this team is set up plenty fine as is for the next 3 to 5 years and it will be the best team in the division every one of those years and a top NL team. There’s going to have to be more pitching found but that's always the case. Trying to project more than a few years out is hard anyways but we are set up just fine when you try and do it.

Meh, we’ll be fine and are in fine shape moving forward. Most guys will have better years next year, Harper and other moves will be made. Still will easily be the best team in the division for the next few years and one of the best NL teams.

Season back on

There’s nothing to make that happen anymore, this team is done for the regular season. Unlike the 58 times Sofa mentioned there’s no data points, math/probability with the lead we have with games left, splits, heat maps, etc to grab on to for hope. They’re just done. Maybe they somehow miraculously win the WC game and get hot, but division and automatic DS dreams are dead. I was shocked when you said it was over yesterday and didn't believe it. You just doubled down, so now I do. Welcome. I don’t plan on staying this way long, I’ll be back to believing in them come the WC game and next year. Just this team has a funk on them right now and I don’t think we can shake it in time.

I know they’ve been playing well and big reason for losing the division is just the VBs getting super hot but I didn’t know how well they were playing. They’re 18-7 since end of August (.700+ win% and 115+ win pace) and we’re 13-13, which isn’t that bad (we obviously look like horsefeathers but record wise that’s okay). I probably would’ve taken .500 ball from that point because we had a ~5 game lead and the death march, it just really took the VBs going nuclear to catch us. Playing ~.500 on from the lead/point of the season we were at probably wins the division most of the time, just annoying this isn’t one of them.

There’s nothing to make that happen anymore, this team is done for the regular season. Unlike the 58 times Sofa mentioned there’s no data points, math/probability with the lead we have with games left, splits, heat maps, etc to grab on to for hope. They’re just done. Maybe they somehow miraculously win the WC game and get hot, but division and automatic DS dreams are dead.

He’s begging their loser fans to show up this weekend because they haven’t been the last few home series

I feel like EJM is the type of guy the scouts in Moneyball like because he looks good with a shirt off or whatever but he can't actually hit. Short seems to be a little bit like Paul Dejong, there's a better track record of walks but everything else looks about the sameish. I still prefer we trade him sooner than later before the K problems likely catch up to him and let someone else dream on him/think they can fix it.

Almost everything had to go right for them and wrong for us for them to maybe end up just 1-2 games better when it’s all said and done.

Idk who or what is worse between our infield and outfield positioning guy(s), medical staff, or advanced scouts of AAA/shitty players and I guess throw Chili in there too because why not and horsefeathers him even if he isn’t the cause of this.

It’s over

Funny in a sad way

Funny to think only about 1 month ago we had roughly the same record win% wise (think we had 1-2 fewer wins or losses) and a bigger division lead than them.

They really didn’t have a chance short of getting crazy hot like they did. We were at 70%+ at the division for a good amount of time now (think we even hit over 90% at one point). They aren’t the better team and I’ll die on that hill, let them have this year I guess. They still suck and are nothing to worry about long term. One week ago today they were 95.1% to win the division. If they miss it this won’t be an all time meltdown but it will be pretty high up there. It would be but the Brewers also have like 1 loss in that time. If they don’t get crazy hot we’ve been playing well enough to win the division.

My eyes could not have possibly rolled more reading this Yelich is like the only good offensive player they have under 30 long term and their starting pitching mostly sucks and they have no huge prospects coming up and are poor and can’t afford FAs. What do they possibly have going on that you think they will push more than mid 80s wins moving forward? Everything went right for them this year.