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Cubswin11

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Everything posted by Cubswin11

  1. Cubswin11
    He’s been worth 3.3 WAR in two seasons he’s played as a 22 and 23 year old. He’s good, he needs to improve in areas but he’s good and given the options we have for the 12 position players to make the OD 25-man he deserves to be on it. I’m glad we’re making these guys be more accountable/needing to show improvements but it’s hard to see they’re doing that when Almora and Caratini are just basically handed jobs when they’re not as good as Happ and have been worse than him recently. Seems like rules are being applied to guys differently.
  2. Cubswin11
    https://twitter.com/sahadevsharma/status/1109594859868831744?s=21
  3. Cubswin11
    That’s what I was thinking too, but wasn’t there room for Happ and Adames with Russell being suspended? Or would that be 13 position player guys?
  4. Cubswin11
  5. Cubswin11
    WTF
  6. Cubswin11
    Shocked he’s struggling coming back from a shoulder injury and isn’t back to being the ace yet like all their fans think. They over performed so hard last year injuries are pretty much the only way for regression for them.
  7. Cubswin11
    what about Montero? Overall he got a 13+ WAR career boost. He went from 15.something to nearly 30.
  8. Cubswin11
    Is anyone saying his ceiling is even that high? Not really anybody smart. Just mostly blind faith White Sox homers and twitter idiots. I was just illustrating how good he’d have to be for this deal to bring them any sort of real savings. His more likely outcome (settles in as a 2.5-3 win guy with 4-4.5 peak season(s)) this is probably a neutral deal +/- under current CBA rules.
  9. Cubswin11
    KB is going to make ~$75 million after all his team controlled/arb years (he’s at ~$26 mil after this year not including his signing bonus). Figure he gets around $20 mil next year and $30 in final year of arb. So it looks like there could be savings of $30-40 mil if Eloy hits his absolute ceiling from the start, ROY, MVP, top ~5 player in MLB. Which probably isn’t happening and there isn’t a ton of savings in this most likely for the team, obviously the next CBA could change drastically and make this look a lot better or worse. More just sharing this info than really having a strong feeling either way on this move.
  10. Cubswin11
    there’s been some quiet buzz that he’s upset about the russell stuff and we know he’s upset about the way the front office abused the system in calling him up. maybe he values getting away from an organization he doesn’t like. where is this from? I remember hearing or reading that too, forget where now. But him and as wife were not happy about it and how it was handled and that he was kept, allegedly.
  11. Cubswin11
    Do I have to acknowledge and play along with, therefore enabling, the owners’ collusion or can I go with what he should be worth? Bryant’s career pre-2018 was basically a top 2-3 RH and overall hitter, a top 3 overall player at a non-1B position, one of the handful best power hitters, and with constantly improving plate discipline. If he gets back on that track this season, and I think he does, he’s easily a $300+ million guy. He should beat the Arenado extension if back on track. Not arguing what he should get or is really worth, but we know how it actually works. I don't see any way he gets $300+. Arenado "only" got 8/260 and that included his last year of arbitration at ~$30 mil at age 27 and 2 years of FA bought out below the age of 30. KB won't be getting any pre age 30 years of FA bought out (2-3 years of arb bought out, with only 1 reflecting anything close to his real value) if he extends or will be a 30-31 year old FA when he gets there. Whether it's as an early extension or as a FA I think KB is getting closer to $200 million than $300 million. It's why I think around a 7/200 or 8/220 extension done now or next offseason is pretty realistic and he should think real hard about taking it (if offered or something similar) vs waiting to get to FA. Again this is looking at how it actually works vs how it should work.
  12. Cubswin11
    5/100 (2 FA years bought out). He’ll be a FA at age 30 or 31.
  13. Cubswin11
    What would you project him to get, either as an extension pre-FA (3 years left including this year) or as a 30 year old FA?
  14. Cubswin11
    We'll see. I bet they've only offered him roughly the Rizzo extension x~20%. Unless he's really holding a grudge and back to his normal self this year I'd be he's getting the 7-8 year ~$25 AAV extension offer over next offseason and that will be tough to turn down for him. If he's back to his normal self, do you think he and Boras would agree to a $200M contract that takes him well past his prime? They should, idk if they will. He’s not making a ton more when he hits FA at 30 in all likelihood and can lock in a solid amount and take any risk out of the equation.
  15. Cubswin11
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  17. Cubswin11
    Gonzales thinks it's a blister, they were looking at his hand/fingers. He got a hit in an AB today too, possible he maybe jammed or tweaked something swinging.
  18. Cubswin11
    I still think he made up his mind he wouldn't extend back during the service time gaming. He seems like the type to hold that grudge. We'll see. I bet they've only offered him roughly the Rizzo extension x~20%. Unless he's really holding a grudge and back to his normal self this year I'd be he's getting the 7-8 year ~$25 AAV extension offer over next offseason and that will be tough to turn down for him.
  19. Cubswin11
    Yeah, going through the list I don't see a lot of options. I think you take a shot at Baez assuming his numbers come back down to earth. It's not really in Rizzo's best interest to extend a few more years...he either needs to sign a 'Cub for Life' deal at a relatively friendly price, or he should hit free agency before he gets too far into his 30s. Still have 4 more years of Contreras, which is about all you want. And then Schwarber/Happ/Almora still need to show more to justify going down that road. Eh, starting next year he has 2 team options for $14.5 million. I could see a 5-6 year deal starting next year for ~$18 AAV (so only 3-4 new years) being in everyone's best interest with a few team/vesting/mutual options tacked on.
  20. Cubswin11
    Duensing .1IP 4H 4ER 0BB 0K. horsefeathering cut him already
  21. Cubswin11
    I think in every appearance Chatwood has come out of the bullpen in ST he hasn’t walked a guy, the only time he’s walked guy is when he started a game. Clearly he’s just a relief ace.
  22. Cubswin11
    I’m not that worried about the rotation, it’s going to be average at worst. I think it has a pretty safe floor and top ~7 upside. The OF will be fine, they had the 6th most OF WAR in MLB last year with the same guys coming back. The bullpen is worrisome but Theo has always figured it out, there’s enough horsefeathers thrown against the wall that some things will stick and assuming relative health.
  23. Cubswin11
    I think he’s better than the numbers. The Packers lack of a pass rush lately I think makes the secondary guys grade out and look worse. They’ve had multiple guys leave from the secondary in the last 2-4 years that seemed average to bad and turn in to good players once they got on good defenses.
  24. Cubswin11
    Yu battled through some control issues (43 of 71 pitches for strikes but 31 of final 43 for strikes) it sounded like today but ended up getting decent results and was hitting 96. 4IP 3H 1R 1BB 5K 2HBP 2 of the hits were BS.... one seeing eye, GB, soft single and 1 line drive that’s Vic didn’t catch at 1B that bounced off his glove for a hit. One of the HBPs sounded like a soft breaking ball that just didn’t break.
  25. Cubswin11
    I’ll say somewhere between 88 (if the division really turns out to be a death march and everyone wins over 80 games, unlikely but who knows) and 95 (team or two in division underperforms and we have more things go right than wrong).
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