CubsWin

The baseball gods giveth and taketh away. As Max Bain is showing his potential, AZ Phil reports that Richard Gallardo has labored as a starter and has been moved to the pen. At least for now...

Per AZ Phil, it was NOT a hot stadium gun. He was legit sitting 98-99 bottoming out at 97 throughout his 6 innings. Phil's been known to get a little exuberant about some Cubs prospects in the past that don't ever really pan out, but he said Bain has emerged as one of the Cubs top pitching prospects and expects him to be the opening day starter in Low-A and likely move to High-A shortly thereafter. And, heck, if he keeps this up, he may be right, but this is just one minor league spring training start.

Makes sense.

It's not an overwhelmingly exciting "AAA" roster by any stretch, but there's a nice mix of MLB depth and some upside. Abbott, Thompson and Shelby (Don't Call Me Tyson) Miller look like the 6,7 and 8 starters (not necessarily in that order) with Miller probably getting the 1st call up that's already scheduled to prevent him opting out. Some pretty nice bullpen depth there. Steele looks ready. Strop looked like... Strop, which is a good thing. Megill had great, heavy velocity in ST, but seems like he has some rough edges to smooth out. The same could said for Manny Rodriguez. Brad Wieck didn't look bad in Mesa, but he didn't seem quite where the Cubs want him to be. The sleeper of this group, and the guy that would be most fun to see get the call, is indy ball reclamation project Tommy Nance. The upside pitching exists mostly in a guy like Megill, but Kohl Stewart is a guy to hope on. Miguel Amaya and Nico Hoerner really bring the upside aspect to this roster. Alfonso Rivas and Andy Weber are the most realistic bench prospects. All in all, it's a serviceable group. I'll be interested to see the real AAA roster (as well as all the other minor league levels) when they drop towards the end of this month.

Due to the recent influx of upside talent into the Cubs organization, I thought it was time to resurrect this thread. It's been over two years since we last discussed which Cubs prospect had the highest upside. Some of the names discussed back then have fallen off, but two have distinguished themselves. Brennen Davis and Brailyn Marquez may still head this list, but the Cubs depth of teenage talent is so deep, I thought it might be fun to get your thoughts on two questions. Who do you think has the highest pure upside, and who do you think will realize the highest upside (or wind up being the best player)? Let's divvy it up into 2 categories, over 20 years old and 20 and under. Here are my nominees for discussion. Feel free to add your own. Over 20: OF Brennen Davis (21) LHP Brailyn Marquez (22) C Miguel Amaya (22) RHP Kohl Franklin (21) 3B Chris Morel (21) RHP Ryan Jensen (23) RHP Riley Thompson (24) OF Jordon Nwogu (23) OF Cole Roederer (21) RHP Chris Clarke (22) 20 and under: SS Christian Hernandez (17) SS Ed Howard (19) INF Reginald Preciado (17) OF Ismael Mena (18) RHP Richard Gallardo (19) SS Kevin Made (18) INF Yeison Santana (20) OF Yohendrick Pinango (18) LHP DJ Herz (20) C Ronnier Quintero (18) OF Owen Caissie (18) C Ethan Hearn (20) C Moises Ballesteros (17) INF Rafael Morel (19) RHP Koen Moreno (19) LHP Luke Little (20)

Granted he came in at 29, but it was interesting to see Ballesteros rank ahead of Quintero and Hearn. On the one hand, that's not a great sign for the other two prospects, both of whom have already spent a year or two in the organization (though in Quintero's case he's really just had one instructs that scouts could hear about). Ballesteros hasn't even worked with the Cubs yet. Now this is a BA ranking, so it probably relied heavily on Badler's IFA reports. But, they would've also mostly relied on Badler's notes on Quintero as well, given how little info there is on him since his signing. So, it's noteworthy that the folks at BA ranked Ballesteros ahead of Quintero. That said, this Cubs system is deep, especially with teenage talent, so when you're getting past the top 20 or so, it's pretty meaningless who gets mentioned the rest of the way as it changes pretty wildly depending on who is doing the talking. In any case, the Cubs have a strong list of young catching prospects that we will hopefully learn a lot more about this season. After Amaya, Quintero, Hearn and Ballesteros (in whatever order you prefer) lead the way. All 3 are described as bat first catchers who have some above average defensive attributes but need a lot of development behind the plate. And then there's Brayan Altuve who signed for $1 million the same year Quintero signed (2019). Keep an eye out for Pablo Aliendo as well. From what I've been able to glean, he's more defensively gifted with a chance to develop a good bat. That's 5 guys after Amaya, the oldest of which is Hearn (20) and the youngest of which is Ballesteros (17).

The 65 rating/second best in the minors was by MLB Pipeline (which IMO is more exciting than minor league comments from Rotowire). Yeah, I knew that. I just didn't format my response very well. And I absolutely agree with you that it is much more exciting. So many guys that have a chance to break out this year. May can't come soon enough. So many, and both hitters and pitchers. Starters who could breakout: Franklin, Jensen, R. Thompson, McAvene, Clarke, Gallardo, B. Rodriguez, Herz. Relievers who could breakout: Carraway, B. Little, Bigge, Roberts, Hudson, M. Rodriguez. Hitters who could breakout: Strumpf, Howard, Preciado, Hernandez, Roederer, C. Morel, Pinango, Nwogu, Santana, Mena, Caissie, R. Morel, Quintero, Hearn, Made, Verdugo. That's 30 guys I'm legitimately excited to see how they do and that doesn't even include Marquez, Davis and Amaya. The season cannot start soon enough.

Fair point about Rotowire. But it isn’t the 65 grade on Clarke’s curve that necessarily piqued my interest so much, but rather that they feel his curve is tied for 2nd best in the minors. That’s fun stuff. Indeed!

FTR he topped out at 98 and during one of those max effort throws topped 100. He's one of the more skilled pitchers in the system, looking forward to seeing what he does in 2021 Me too. Roberts is one of a growing list of relievers with reported off season velocity jumps (Brendon Little, Bryan Hudson) and arms that were already throwing in the mid-to-upper 90s (Burl Carraway, Manuel Rodriguez, Hunter Bigge, Luke Little, Max Bain, Ben Leeper, etc.) Along with Roberts and the reliever crowd, there are some really interesting young starting candidates that have an opportunity to establish themselves as prospects to watch. Heading up that list for me is Benjamin Rodriguez. Also interested to see if guys like Richard Gallardo, DJ Herz, Yovanny Cruz and Tyler Schlaffer can take a noticeable step forward. Does Jeremiah Estrada have his pre-injury stuff? How advanced is Koen Moreno? Should be a fun season!

Nice That's the highest I've seen Clarke's curve graded. Good stuff. Jensen isn't even in their top 19, unless I spaced it. Seems to be the forgotten man in the system. Not to take anything away from Clarke's curveball, it's clearly very good, but MLB.com is known for being generous with their 20/80 grades, just fyi. And Rotowire is typically a fantasy sports site. I don't know the exact context of the quoted top ten list, but it seems to be almost exclusively based on upside and thus would more aptly apply to minor leaguers you may want to draft and stash in a dynasty fantasy baseball league...

I heard them mention a 99 for Megill. Nice! I must've missed that one. With 3 option years left, he's got plenty of time to continue refining his command of that velocity without being DFA'd. He can be given opportunities when the 26-man roster needs an extra reliever and see how he does. He seems to have late-inning/high leverage potential. If he stays healthy (which has been an issue in the past) and improves his command a bit, he has a shot at replacing Kimbrel as the Cubs next closer. Will be fun to follow.

No velo readings on the Cleveland broadcast but I thought he looked really good just now too Yeah, no readings or mentions by the broadcasters on Keegan's velocity, but they did mention Megill hitting 97 on one pitch.

They are some interesting stories to follow on the relief side as well. The aforementioned Brendon Little could be a completely different pitcher out of the pen. Reports are that another formerly-softish-tossing left, Bryan Hudson, has seen a jump in his velocity recently. We'll finally get a look at Burl Carraway. Ethan Roberts has been getting some reports of steps forward. Manny Rodriguez is back healthy and throwing upper 90s again. Hunter Bigge has got that kind of velo as well. And then there's the wild cards. Is Luke Little a pitcher or a driveline freak? How good is Max Bain? Is Ben Leeper worthy of the mentions he's been getting from inside the org? Can Ben Hecht and Ryan Lawlor continue to strike guys out at the upper levels at the same rate as they did in 2019? And, last but certainly not least, the eternal question, can Jose Albertos stay healthy and throw strikes? Man... I need a minor league season bad.

The Brendon Little being a starter train may have left the station, but man, this year is going to be interesting when it comes to Cubs starting pitching prospects. Keegan Thompson has surprised in spring training thus far. Both he and Abbott should have a chance to show what they can do in big league games this year with reason to think they might do well. Marquez has development left. Can he gain the refinement and consistency the Cubs are looking for? The 2019 trio of Jensen, McAvene and Clarke have generated some good reports this off-season. The 2018 youngsters of Franklin and Gallardo could take big steps forward. Further down the line, we should learn a lot about guys like DJ Herz, Benjamin Rodriguez, Yovanny Cruz and Koen Moreno. The entire narrative of the Cubs ability to draft and develop starting pitching has a chance to be re-written this year.

I found that interesting too. The 55s across the board (including overall) are the real story for me, though. MLB is known for being generous with their grades, but only Brennen Davis was given that distinction last year. Of course, as Hernandez fills out, his speed will likely decline, but I guess it speaks to his athleticism.

I wouldn't call that isolationism by fiat or design. Both the Cubs and Astros were in the championship window they'd built and were letting that play out. Hoyer declared that window closed (or rapidly closing) and quickly changed that number of players from 1 to 4, and depending on how this season unfolds, that number could go even higher. It seems to me that was a function of circumstance instead of philosophy.

Nice concise way. Exactly. Exactly. I'm kinda figuring there should be capacity to add one big-ticket rotation starter. And I'm hoping they'd have capacity to sign four variably big-ticket hitters, basically one more than what we've got now. -*IF* Bryant, Baez, and Rizzo take up 3 of those 4 contracts, there might still be space to add one more. -And for each of those three who doesn't come back, that just frees up cash to sign somebody else good from outside. There's an interesting list of "big money" FA starters available next off season, though I'm not sure how many make it to market. Seems like you'll have your choice of signing older studs to shorter, but still expensive contracts or going long and tall on the younger arms. Max Scherzer will be 37. Justin Verlander will be 39. Zach Grienke will be 38. Clayton Kershaw will be 34. Lance McCullers will be 28. Daniel Norris will be 28. Dylan Bundy will be 29. Trevor Bauer (if he opts out) will be 31. Eduardo Rodriguez will be 28. Marcus Stroman will be 30. There are a lot of lesser but still solid pitchers available as well. Robbie Ray, Lance Lynn, Kevin Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani, Andrew Heaney, Michael Pineda, (Zach Davies), Drew Smyly and Jon Gray. Plenty to choose from there. Best case scenario, of course, is Alzolay performs well and Marquez and Jensen break out big time such that the Cubs have a lot of confidence slotting them in the rotation with Hendricks. As Craig previously mentioned, that would leave the 5th spot for any one of the BOR internal options like Mills, Abbott, K. Thompson, R. Thompson and Miller. Along with possible extensions for current Cubs and the ridiculous list of position player FAs Lindor, Correa, Freeman, Seager, Story, Conforto and a possible reunion for DH Jorge Soler (wouldn't that be fun...), this off season should be veeeeerrry interesting.

Wow, I wasn't aware Jeffress was still available. I thought he got by on smoke and mirrors last season (or more like guts and aggression), but he did so consistently. With the 40-man currently full, the question isn't "hey, is this guy worth signing?", its "is this guy clearly better than who we've got?" Jeffress and Tepera are known quantities to us, but we don't know what the Cubs know about how Gray Fenter, Robert Stock and Jonathan Holder are throwing. Which makes me wonder if Fenter, Stock and Holder have been working in the pitching lab in Mesa since they signed. If the lab work is successful, it would improve their chances of performing well in spring training and being kept on the roster. On the flip side, it also gives the Cubs more of a chance to evaluate them and, if they haven't been able to make the adjustments they're looking for, to feel comfortable releasing them and signing someone like Jeffress.

These words may come back to haunt me, but... I'm happy with the Cubs bullpen.

If I had to guess... Maples and Norwood seem to be the top two cut candidates. Maybe Ryan (with Chafin in and if Wieck is looking healthy plus Steele and other non 40-man guys he would make sense since there’s plenty of LHRP options) and also maybe Wieck if they feel he’s broken. Could also send Fenter back or trade some nothing prospect for him to clear the spot if they want to keep him. Then there’s also a trade of some guy(s) like KB/Willy/etc. Yeah, those are my thoughts as well, though I didn't think of Norwood.

Trying to figure out who is likely to be cut from the 40-man to make room for the two Jakes. Last in, first out would indicate Alcantara would likely be one of them. He's their best defensive back-up at SS but not much of a bat. I'm guessing he'd start in AAA anyway, and Hoerner is more than capable at SS if Javy needs a breather. If it is Alcantara, I can't see them cutting another position player which means one of the pitchers will have to go. I'm guessing Maples is at the top of that list unless he took real steps forward with his control during the shut down that we haven't heard about. They could return Fenter to the Orioles. They only have 5 lefties on the roster, but Kyle Ryan and Brad Wieck didn't look all that great last we saw them. Of course, there also could be trade coming...

So the 40-man is full and the Cubs still need to add Marisnick and Arrieta. Who goes? Alcantara? Two pitchers? Or is there a trade coming?

Another thing the 2018 shift toward upside and the technological overhaul did was give the Cubs a much better chance of generating a solid bullpen on the cheap. Not only has the pitching lab unearthed players like Wick and helped the Cubs backfill with cheap but effective signings like Jason Adam, but they have a growing list of possible pen arms in the system. The hopes are right now that Jensen will make it as a starter, but if he doesn't, he's got the stuff for a high leverage reliever as does Carraway. Other options include Mike McAvene, Manuel Rodriguez and Hunter Bigge. That's 5 arms with upper 90s FBs and at least one average to better secondary pitch and in a couple years, who knows, maybe Luke Little and Yovanny Cruz join that upper 90s list. Justin Steele will likely see his first big league action this year, plus there are others with promising stuff but less velo like Chris Clarke (who is a starter for now), Ethan Roberts, Bryan Hudson and Cam Sanders that have a shot at contributing as middle relievers. The rest of these guys are simply long shots but will be fun to follow: Ben Hecht, Ryan Lawlor, CD Pelham, Max Bain, Ben Leeper and the never say never Jose Albertos. Man, I need a real minor league season...

Yeah, that's what's so intriguing about our system right now. Ever since the Cubs re-evaluated their draft philosophy (especially pitchers) in 2018 and started looking for more upside, their system began rebuilding at a faster clip than before. Follow that with the 2019 overhaul of their technology as applied to development and that rebuild kicked into an even higher gear. The lost minor league season has delayed anyone outside the organization from seeing any of the results thus far, but the sheer number of prospects with youth and upside is undeniable. Alzolay will graduate the moment he records an out this upcoming season, but depending on their performance once getting to the bigs, guys Abbott, K. Thompson, Steele and T. Miller as well as Marquez could all pitch enough innings to no longer qualify as prospects, and as you correctly pointed out, that would be pretty good influx of talent for a low ranked system even if some of them don't perform. The thing is, only Marquez is one of those upside guys. It's pretty unlikely Amaya will spend enough time with the Cubs, but if there's a Contreras trade/injury and he's playing well enough, who knows. Assuming Amaya's still eligible, there's a good chance he and Davis will be top 100 prospects next year. Then there's a group of players that I think are likely to take big enough steps forward to join them or come close. Kohl Franklin (21), Ryan Jensen (23) and Ed Howard (19) each have good shots at doing that. But the really intriguing part for me is what's 2-3 years away. The Cubs have 11 teenagers that all have above average to excellent draft/IFA pedigree. I don't think I've seen it this deep with young, upside guys before. Howard (19) Hernandez (17) Preciado (17) Made (18) Mena (18) Caissie (18) Gallardo (19) Quintero (18) Pinango (19) R. Morel (19) Moreno (19) Then there's the 11 20-21 year olds (not counting Davis and Amaya) with varying degrees of upside: B. Davis (21) Amaya (21) Franklin (21) Roederer (21) Carraway (21) C. Morel (21) Y. Santana (20) Nwogu (21) Hearn (20) Verdugo (20) Herz (20) Y. Cruz (21) L. Little (21) That's 22 prospects. I'd say 4 of them (Howard, Hernandez, Preciado and Franklin) have a strong chance of becoming top 100 prospects. If 2-3 of the remaining 18 do as well, the Cubs system should be good for a while. Now it's up to the coaches and the technology to get the job done.

Indeed, sir. Excitement not required. Just recognizing that I don't think I've seen it this deep with upside guys before. Now they've got to develop enough of them successfully for it to mean something. Having a larger pool for your hits (and misses) to come from does improve your odds of having some pop, however. That combined with this new and improved technological approach along with coaches that know how to apply it, does give me renewed hope for a top ten system in a year or two.