CubsWin

Just for fun, here's a 26-man roster made up of the prospects listed: C - Amaya 1B - Preciado 2B - Strumpf SS - Howard 3B - C. Hernandez LF - Nwogu CF - Mena RF - Davis SP - Marquez SP - Franklin SP - Gallardo SP - R. Thompson SP - Abbott RP - Jensen RP - Carraway RP - McAvene RP - Steele RP - Clarke RP - M. Rodriguez RP - L. Little RP - Y. Cruz C - Quintero INF - Santana INF - Made INF - C. Morel OF - Roederer OF - Caissie Not bad...

It's the number of young prospects with apparent upside not on most top 30 lists combined with the 15 or so more widely recognized guys who are 21 years old and younger that has me enthused about the Cubs system depth. By my count, (outside of Brailyn Marquez who just turned 22 5 days ago) the Cubs currently have 14 20-21 years olds with noteworthy upside: Brennen Davis Miguel Amaya Cole Roederer Kohl Franklin Burl Carraway Chris Morel Yeison Santana Ethan Hearn Yovanny Cruz Jordan Nwogu Luis Verdugo Benjamin Rodriguez Manuel Espinoza Luke Little ...and 16 teenagers with upside worth following: Cristian Hernandez Ed Howard Reginald Preciado Ismael Mena Ronnier Quintero Kevin Made Richard Gallardo Yohendrick Pinango Owen Caissie DJ Herz Rafael Morel Koen Moreno Tyler Schlaffer Moises Ballesteros Reivaj Garcia Brayan Altuve That's 30 guys with upside 21 or younger with a shot of becoming top 150 prospects or better. I can't remember young upside depth like that for the Cubs before. Combine that with some decent upside of older guys (not including Alzolay) like: Ryan Jensen Riley Thompson Chase Strumpf Cory Abbott Chris Clarke Mike McAvene ...and a bunch of fringey possible major league contributors who should fall off the list like: Keegan Thompson Alfonso Rivas Justin Steele Manuel Rodriguez Jack Patterson Andy Weber Tyson Miller Including Brailyn Marquez (who didn't fit into those arbitrary categories), that's 44 prospects, 36 with notable upside. You can make arguments for more, but I won't. All of those guys have either the draft/IFA bonus pedigree, are currently on a Cubs top 30 list or are labeled 35+ FV by Longenhagen. I don't know about you, but that's pretty deep.

Benjamin Rodriguez. Video showed him throwing 98. That's the one. Interestingly, Longenhagen said this about him back when he was throwing 10 mph slower: You... you're good, you. As nice as 98 off of flat ground is, velocity isn't everything. Rodriguez has been putting up better numbers each season, though. These ratings are old, but Longenhagen last had him with a 45/50 FB, 45/55 curve, 40/50 change and 30/50 control with 2300 rpm on his FB. He's 21 now. Turns 22 in late July. My guess is he'll likely be in the Low-A piggyback rotation.

And that's with Hearn and Gallardo not making their top 30 and Hernández missing the list due to timing. Yep. The Cubs have been restocking at a pretty good clip since the 2018 draft (when they overhauled their draft strategy) adding Hoerner, Davis, Roederer, Franklin, R. Thompson and Jack Patterson who make up 6 of BA's top 30. They also drafted Andy Weber, Cam Sanders and Ethan Roberts who all have outside chances of playing in the bigs eventually. That's 9 guys who have a decent to great chance of being major league contributors, one of which has already made it (though still has some developing to do in Hoerner). The only 2018 IFA signing to make the list is Pinango, but Gallardo and R. Morel have a good shot of being added soon. The 2019 draft has the top 4 picks making the list (Jensen, Strumpf, McAvene and Clarke) with Hearn, Herz, Schlaffer and Bigge as strong possibilities of joining the top 30 at some point down the line. Two IFAs from that year made the list (Quintero and Made). And of course, the first 3 2020 picks Howard, Carraway and Nwogu are all on BA's top 30 with 4th and 5th rounders L. Little and Moreno possessing the upside to make it in the future. 2020-21 IFA signee Cristian Hernandez is sure to make their next list. All in all, half of the top 30 were drafted or IFA signed since 2018 not including Hoerner who graduated already. Five more were acquired in trade in 2020. Only 10 were in the organization prior to 2018. That's some overhaul since the new draft philosophy. 17 of the 30 are 21 or younger and 6 are teenagers. But the real story is the depth beyond the top 30 as Raisin alluded to. Hernandez, Gallardo, R. Morel, Hearn, Herz, Schlaffer, L. Little, Moreno, Ballesteros and Altuve all possess upside. All but Hearn and Herz are teenagers (and both of them are 20). Hopefully, guys like Miller, K. Thompson, Steele, Rivas, Rodriguez, Abbott and maybe even Marquez will join Alzolay in graduating off the list this season or be replaced by the upside youth listed above as some of them prove worthy. I can foresee the Cubs having the benefit of adding some talent to their major league roster from their system while still greatly improving the system's ranking if players develop as expected.

I'm also looking forward to the possible 1st time major league contributions of Cory Abbott, Keegan Thompson, PJ Higgins, Alfonso Rivas and maybe Trent Giambrone. I expect we'll see more of Tyson Miller and some innings from Justin Steele and Brailyn Marquez this year as well. I'm not expecting it, but it sure would be fun to have Eddy Martinez figure it out and explode in AAA this year. He put up an .854 OPS in the Mexican League this winter. His prospect status has long ago expired, but if there's to be an under-the-radar, underdog type story this season (ala Robel Garcia) his is the one I'd like to see.

Yeah, hopefully they get a good sized season of games in. 3 top 100 prospects on the same team hasn't happened in a while for the Cubs. Amaya, Davis and Marquez along with another possible MLB starter in Chris Morel is pretty fun. Add in 3 likely MLB relievers in Carraway, Steele and Rodriguez and another possible contributor in Weber and you're looking at 8 guys with a good chance of being future Cubs by 2022 (Morel maybe more of a 2023 arrival if he gets there). There's a chance a 9th could join them in 2B Chase Strumpf. Others to watch are LH reliever Bryan Hudson who reports say has taken a jump in velocity since moving to the pen, RH relievers Ben Hecht and Ethan Roberts have outside chances to become major league relevant by the end of this year. LH fireballing reliever CD Pelham always has a chance, but he's got a lot of work to do with controlling his electric stuff. LH starter Jack Patterson is more a control type pitcher who came out of nowhere as a 32nd round pick, but he had a heck of a 2019 season. It will be interesting to see how he does in AAA. If he makes it to the bigs, it will likely be as a reliever, but who knows. He's sort of a poor man's Cory Abbott, who is a poor man's Kyle Hendricks, lol. Lots to follow in Tennessee this season. (If there is one...)

Highlights from the Matt Dorey interview: -Outside of the 5 week Instructional League (plus a 2 week performance camp immediately following), only players on the 40-man roster were allowed to work at the Mesa facility due to Covid restrictions. Sounded like only a handful of guys did during the season. -Justin Steele looked great at the alternate site, got called up, wasn't used and then had a hamstring issue. Dorey was excited to see what he could do and that was a tough blow for Justin. -Expects to see Steele and Brailyn Marquez in the bigs this year. Wasn't specific in what exact capacity. It sounded as if he thinks Steele's got a good shot at breaking camp in the bullpen. -Chris Morel took a big step forward at the alternate site. He's likely a year away from being big league ready. -Cory Abbott has a real opportunity to win a job in spring training and if not should be used for spot starts throughout the year. Abbott has added a 4th pitch since being named Cubs Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2019. -Ryan Jensen pitched 70 simulated innings. Added a curveball to his FB/SL mix. Needs time to just pitch, get innings and fine tune. -Ryan Franklin grew an inch and added 10-15 lbs. Wouldn't be shocked if he's sitting 95-98 this year. Needs to experience managing a full season of innings. -Cubs want to develop all their current SS as SS. The player will let them know through their performance when they need to be moved off to a different position. (I'm guessing that likely means Andy Weber at AA, Yeison Santana at High-A, Ed Howard and Luis Verdugo at Low-A, Cristian Hernandez, Reggie Preciado and Kevin Made in Mesa.) -Brennen Davis' lack of experience playing baseball (lack of an established routine, a long history of building and maintaining his swing), he was unusually open and coachable. His development is a testament to the effectiveness of the Cubs coaches as well as his work ethic and athleticism. -Jordan Nwogu's workout regimen is ridiculous. He's really intelligent and thoughtful. Has a strong drive to improve. Like Davis, he also hasn't played a lot of baseball. With his athleticism, he could also improve quickly. -Amaya felt so good with his performance and where he was at at the alternate site, that he lobbied to go to winter ball. Cubs enthusiastically agreed. -PJ Higgins is ready right now to be a major league back-up. -Players most likely to take a big jump forward in their development this year: Andy Weber, Chase Strumpf, Ryan Jensen, Riley Thompson. Wouldn't be surprised if Thompson starts in AA this year.

You might get one in exchange for Willson, but if one of the guys they might potentially get back for Bryant in this environment would likely take a couple of years to maaaaybe get good enough to make a top 100 list.

This is gonna be long, but I got nothing better to do, so... Right now, the Cubs have 2 guys in the top 100, possibly 3 with Amaya being included on lists yet to be released. That means you'd have to add 3-4 guys to reach 6-7, AND not have any of Marquez, Davis or Amaya lose their prospect status with too much MLB playing time. In a regular year where the Cubs are going for it and won't be forced to use a lot of pitchers, the chances of Marquez pitching over 49 innings for the Cubs would be slim. He definitely has some development left to achieve, but as of now, the Cubs haven't signed any bonafide major league starters and with a weaker roster, might get off to a slow start to where they're out of it by July (especially if they trade Contreras and Bryant). If they go into the season with Hendricks, Davies, Mills, Alzolay and a competition for the 5th (and possibly 6th) spot in the rotation from the group they currently have, there's a decent chance Marquez pitches enough innings to no longer qualify as a prospect. Remember, MLB currently plans to play 162 games (I'll believe that when it's official), and veteran starters probably won't top 150 IP in 2021 due to the lack of innings they threw last year. Teams are talking about going with a 6-man rotation as a result, and we can expect more spot starts from minor league depth guys this year as well. Davis and Amaya losing their prospect status is less likely, BUT the Cubs currently don't have a back-up catcher, and if they trade Contreras, they'll need to fill their hole behind the plate somehow. Amaya is already on the 40-man roster and raked during winter ball, if he continues hitting well in the minors, the Cubs may want to give him more than a cup of coffee next season. They also only have 2 major league caliber OFers and are trying to trade Bryant. Chances are the Cubs keep Happ in CF and go with a platoon of Ervin/Martini in LF. But if they trade Bryant, the same scenario might apply to Davis. He's not on the 40-man roster yet, so Davis' chances of losing his prospect status is the least likely of the three. But if none of those 3 guys graduates and all are in the top 100 by 2021, we need to have 3-4 prospects really step up. My top 3 candidates to make a jump into the top 100 are RHP Kohl Franklin (21), SS Ed Howard (19) and RHP Ryan Jensen (23). If Jensen's nascent change up proves to be at least an average pitch this summer, his chances of remaining a starter improve, which he will have to do because relievers rarely, if ever, make a top 100 list. On top of that, he's got to be dominant in High-A ball while having never pitched above short-season Low-A ball and with just 12 professional innings under his belt. That's a lot of development for him to sneak into the back end of a top 100 list. Howard will have to hit well (his defense isn't in question) to make the list. With the glut of SS at the complex level (Hernandez, Preciado and Made), Howard may be playing at Low-A Myrtle Beach at some point this season. He'll have to hit the ground running when he does. Questions still remain about his bat in a lot of scouts/experts minds. He'll need to answer them convincingly (like .275/.340/.410) to make the top 100. If he plays the full season down in Mesa, he'll have to hit even better. Kohl Franklin is the safest bet for me, but he's still got to perform well at the High-A level after only having pitched 3 innings in Low-A, but I think he's got a good shot to do that. After those three, it's possible that 17-year-olds SS Reggie Preciado and SS Cristian Hernandez could make the leap if they hit for average and power this season in Mesa rookie ball. The same goes for a strong group of 18-year-olds, CF Ismael Mena, RF Owen Caissie, C Ronnier Quintero and SS Kevin Made. Each will have to have big years at the plate (around a .900 OPS or better) in order to get a chance at the 75-100 range on lists. OF Cole Roederer, who is now 21, would have to have a major breakthrough campaign at the plate just to be considered. There are questions about his ability to stick in CF, so the bat really has to shine. Even more of a dark horse is 2B Chase Strumpf. He is not strong defensively, but his bat has breakout potential. It would have to be a decisive breakout campaign like Roederer's, but reports were glowing about him during instructs last fall. An even slimmer possibility is 3B prospect Christopher Morel. He has the athleticism to hit for power and play a strong defensively at the hot corner, but he's still pretty raw with his approach at the plate. A lot of development would have to happen and happen quickly for him to make it. And then there's my personal favorite, super-deep sleeper is OF Yohendrick Pinango. Having played mostly LF, he has to show he can play CF and have a big year at the plate. None of those guys have top of the 1st round type pedigree so they're going to have to prove it on the field. There's 10 guys there, so the chances of one of them having a breakout season isn't terrible. If I'm a betting man, which I'm not, I'm gonna bet that 1 of Marquez, Amaya and Davis will lose their prospect status this year, most likely Marquez. If the Cubs acquire 1 or 2 veteran starters later this off season, the chances of that go down, but as of now, they aren't willing/able to spend $3-4 million on a guy like Lester. If Marquez is pitching well, the Cubs will need his innings in Chicago, not Iowa or Tennessee. That leaves us at 2 top 100 prospects as a starting point in this scenario. Let's say Franklin and Howard, but not Jensen, make the list. That's 4. Now we'd need 2-3 guys from that last group to have huge breakout years. That's unlikely. I'd call it a big success if the Cubs had 5 prospects on the top 100 list next season. A lot of things would have to go just right for them to reach 6-7. One wildcard factor could help, though. With most teams trying to recoup money they lost last year, many will be playing their prospects more than usual this season, so there may be more graduations than normal. With so much of the Cubs upside players 20 and under (including previously unnamed guys like RHP Richard Gallardo, SS Yeison Santana, RHP DJ Herz, SS Luis Verdugo), that won't be a problem for the Cubs.

In the sense that Hernandez is going to debut a top 5 maybe 10 prospect in the system. Last year Quintero IIRC peaked at 12 with Longenhagen and was 20th for BA. Hernandez is going to have 10+ spots on Quintero on most preseason 2021 rankings. Quintero's going to drop to 20 for MLB.com, already outside the top 20 on Prospects Live, Glaser suggested 14th in 2021 IIRC etc...At least IMO they're much closer to equal based on their bonuses and international rankings and I'd even give the edge to Quintero, only 13 months older and entering his second full year with the org I think we are both a little starved for data. These are the types of conversations we have when we haven't had a minor league baseball game in a year and a half. I've been jonesing for months now... Just let the kids play, Manfred!

Wow, I had no idea Quintero was an afterthought. I better step up my game...

Man, every time I see one of the pics of these kids signing, it's such a stark reminder of how young they are. And here I am, some 51 year old Cubs fan/prospect nerd, pinning my hopes on them becoming the next big thing...

The data from 2020 showed Rea was much more effective in 1 inning stints than multi-inning ones. My guess is he was no longer considered a starting candidate. The Cubs have brought in a lot of relief depth on both minor league (Biagini, Bourque, Wieland, Kelley, Jewell, re-signed Vasto and Dermody) and major league (Stock & Holder) contracts this off-season and already had a decent amount of options in-house out of the pen. Rea would likely have seen time as a reliever this year, but he got a better opportunity in Japan.

My sense is that Abbott is ahead of those two (with Rea hopefully out of consideration for multi-inning work). Miller got the call last season, but that was only because Abbott was dealing with injury/illness at the beginning of 2nd spring training and got off to a slow start. If everyone is healthy and performing up to their capabilities, I'd put the in-house depth starters in the order of: Cory Abbott Gray Fenter Tyson Miller Keegan Thompson Brailyn Marquez Two caveats. Justin Steele is going to be a reliever long term, but for some reason there are reports that the Cubs have been saying they want to see him start games this year in the minors (at least in spring training). If he stays stretched out (and is performing well), I'd put him ahead of Miller. And, of course, Marquez would rank at the top of this list if he's pitching well. I put him last because it appears he has the most development left to accomplish. We all expect the Cubs to sign a cheap veteran starter or two before spring training, and my sense is Abbott and Fenter will be the primary in-house guys competing with him/them for the 5th spot. This will certainly be a different kind of year for pitching. With the trade of Darvish, many pitchers staying under 150 total innings due the shortened 2020 season, the Cubs desire to evaluate minor league arms this year and the likelihood of playing somewhere between 130-162 games, I think we will see a lot of guys getting called up for spot starts, injuries or no.

This.

He's ranked 5th on this one. https://prospectsworldwide.com/2020/11/15/cubs-2020-top-20-prospects/

Here's another... [tweet] [/tweet]

That's the sense I got listening to Cubs brass talk about the Ivy app. It seems the player can upload video of themselves and data. Then the instructors could give feedback for the player's next workout. I have no info on how often the player would work out at a facility but I would guess is would be more than once a month.

That's great news, Bertz! Thanks for posting that!

I wonder where this is. Everyone seems to be wearing Cubbie blue...

That's Brailyn Marquez.

Finally! This is what I've been waiting for. Now I have to wait to see what kind of coverage/reports we will get out of South Bend. I need trackman and exit velo data. I need video. I need scrimmages. I need... well, what I need is an actual 140 game minor league baseball season, but I'll take what I can get!

Well, you know, Cristian hasn't met Victor Conte over at BALCO yet, so...

I know, at first glance I was like is that Cole Roederer??

Benjamin Rodriguez http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=675851 I'm assuming Eric is referring to this guy in our system. Just accidentally replaced the 'g' with a 'q' I think. I don't know of a "Benny Rodriquez"... That benjamin is a pitcher. Maybe he's strengthened a ton and has gone from 82 to 96 or something. But it seems maybe kinda unexpected to include a pitcher in the middle of of a line about strength-program hitters? To be clear, in that sentence from the FG write up, he simply said strength program, not specifically for hitters. Longenhagen definitely knows who Benjamin Rodriguez is. Two years ago he wrote about him, "Also, Benjamin Rodriguez as a name of note to watch grow and develop the next two years. Super lanky teenage prospect with a clean delivery. Fastball 87-90 in my looks. Purely someone to follow because the body and delivery are good." So he's had his eye on him and presumably he's gained some muscle. I haven't read about him gaining a ton of velocity. I don't think he's mid-90s or anything. If I recall correctly, the last report had him in 90-92.