CubsWin

Riley Thompson has been suspended indefinitely by the Cubs. Hope it's not domestic violence related, but whatever it is, it can't be good.

I actually did try offering to explain my take on this directly at one point, maybe singling it out would help: To me noting the 5th (eventually corrected to 4th) year was just at the A ball level for a guy said to have TOR upside is as noteworthy as the other stuff. Teams usually aren't nervous about pushing badass SP prospects through the lower minors, even the ones brought in as teens, so the Cubs' snail pace with Marquez is one of the things that makes me leery of his perceived upside being higher than the real stuff. I don't believe national prospect coverage would treat a giant, healthy LH who sits high 90s heat with legit TOR potential so indifferently for so long in general either Got it. And to me, it doesn't matter whether he becomes a bad ass prospect in his 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th year in an organization. Once he's become a bad ass, he's a bad ass. Thanks, man.

Man, Kohl Franklin has yet to have a bad start this season. 3 innings, no hits, no earned runs, 1 BB, 5 Ks tonight. He's yet to allow more than 1 ER in a start this season.

Yep, he has taken quite the step forward in his development this season. Definitely not the same pitcher he was when he started the year. It's great to see. That's 5 great starts in a row, and you can probably go back 7 games to see where his progression really started. It doesn't seem like a flash in the pan. Something clicked. Since the calendar flipped to July, he's walked way fewer batters, allowed way fewer hits and struckout a lot more guys than in the first 3 months of the season. Since July 1st: 7 starts, 37.1 IP, 20 H, 5 ER, 1 HR, 11 BB, 49 K, 1.21 ERA, 0.83 WHIP. It's really remarkable what he's done since the end of June. It looks for real. Let's hope it continues...

There's plenty of reasons to think that he's overhyped, I just didn't understand why a player being in the organization for 5 or 4 years would be a strike against him. Oh, really it just seems like you stopped reading the sentence halfway through? Just reading that sentence cold it reads like "in Single A with an ERA pushing 4 and a 5+ RA9" is a big chunk of context behind mentioning 5 years (eventually corrected to 4) To me, pointing out those statistics makes the point on its own. You're essentially warning us that, despite the improvement he'd made in the month of July, his season long numbers might be who he really is. A valid point. For me how long he'd been in the org to that point seemed neither here nor there. But since you included it, it got me thinking and wondering what that might tell us about a prospect. Does it matter when a player takes that step forward or just how good he is now? And I thought I'd ask your thoughts on it. No worries, man. Its a small, unimportant thing. Thanks for responding though.

You asked for it, you got it. There's more in the article, but there's some of Valaika's thoughts.

I'm not understanding what the context of this is anymore to be honest. I don't care that some unknown guy was in the DSL at 17 while some other unknown player is in a US HS. My thing is that the 19-20 YOs already on top 100 lists are ahead of Marquez in a variety of ways, including but not limited to moving through the lower minors faster while hitting those lists, and that Marquez leaping into the top 20 prospects in baseball next year after not making a top 100 until maybe his 4th (hasn't happened yet) is extremely unlikely It's all good, man. The context was from a post you made like week or so ago when you used the fact that Marquez was a 5th year pro (later corrected to a 4th year pro) to bolster your take that he might be the most overhyped Cubs left-handed pitching prospect since Andrew Sisco. There's plenty of reasons to think that he's overhyped, I just didn't understand why a player being in the organization for 5 or 4 years would be a strike against him. It's unimportant. I was just wondering what your thinking was and maybe I could learn something from your perspective. I learn a lot from the posters here.

The non-Marquez hypothetical leaves me with too little information. Generally the same aged or younger guy who took two years to do what another took four to do is going to be seen as the better prospect. I haven't referenced top 100 rankings in these posts, so I'm just going to respond to the quoted part that applies. I get that the bolded part is the opinion you hold, I just don't understand why (that's why I keep saying I'm willing to learn not that you behave like some high-minded teacher). For me, it doesn't matter a hill of beans whether some guy was in the DSL at 17 while some other guy was in high school at the same age. I think the coaching they're getting is pretty comparable, but that's neither here not there. What matters to me is how is the prospect doing now. If they're both 20 and both in High A and both doing really well, why would it matter how long they've been in some team's organization? It seems to matter to you and I'm curious to understand your insight.

Carlos Morfa currently has a higher batting average than Reivaj Garcia. Who'da thunk that at the beginning of the season...

I meant to reply earlier but was too busy being cool and turning 31. This is an interesting perspective on Marquez v the guys his age or younger already on top 100 lists and long getting TOR hype and looking at it probably offers one answer for why he's an big longshot for top 20 overall prospect by end of 2020. Marquez''s track has been incrimental. DSL 2016, AZL 2017, NWL 2018, and finally full season MWL with some High A starts at the end. Alot of those guys, a mix of domestic and IFA arms, went straight from Rk ball to full season ball at 18-19 and have crushed it. Luis Patino, 19, has flat out dominated in the Cal (A+) all year as well as all the MWL last year at 18. The 20 YOs, Gore, Garcia, and Hall, have spent all year in High A with the former two breaking into and nailing AA ball. From that perspective, is Marquez the one who has developed leaps and bounds since he was 18 or is it the guys matching and besting his pace? This is before we get into how these guys have deeper repertoires, better command, better performance, better ARLs, higher bonuses, etc... So why does that impact his shot at becoming a top 20 prospect in baseball in a huge way? For one, all those guys listed hit the top 100 by the time they were 19-20 and most were higher profile and/or more expensive amateurs. Marquez was not a particularly high profile amateur, noted for being large and throwing hard then too, and stateside scouts haven seen Marquez for three years when only now does he have a serious shot at even making a top 100 list or two. If/When he does this offseason, it's likely the back 25. He's already going to have to do some outstanding stuff to finish 2020 a top 50 guy, he'd basically have to 2005 Verlander the minors to break into the top 20. Is any of this a career or even good SP dream killer? Nope, but it's pretty obvious when compared to same aged or younger guys, domestic or IFA on already top 100s he lags behind. Coming up right behind those guys are highly touted teenaged arms like Ethan Hankins and Simeon Woods-Richardson, themselves top 100 candidates this offseason. Those are just some of the pitchers in pro ball his age or younger he is competing against to be a top 20 overall, and not mentioning guys a little older or all the bats. Then there's always more drafts and IFAs...Maybe Gallardo 2022 or something I appreciate the reply whenever it comes and happy birthday! But you didn't really address the question I was asking. I totally get the logic you laid down. If a prospect is younger and better and there are a good number of them, it's going to make it hard for a slightly older pitcher to crack the top 20. Makes perfect sense, but I wasn't speaking in specifics of a top 20 in that post. In other Marquez discussions, one of the reasons you weren't as high on him as some others here was the fact he's received professional coaching in the organization for 4 years (you originally said 5 but later corrected to 4) and, while always showing potential, remained only decent performance-wise until just recently. In a non-Marquez related, hypothetical situation, I was wondering why it should count against a prospect if a he has spent 4 seasons in an organization as an IFA vs. 2 seasons as a prep draftee (or a month in the org as a college draftee) if they both have great stuff, they're essentially doing equally well at the same level and the same age later on? I'm having trouble seeing that, but again, I'm open to learning.

Ha! Zobrist homers for Myrtle Beach. Call him up!

Brendon Little and Zach Mort make their 1st starts after being promoted. Little's had a rocky first 2 innings unfortunately.

Looking forward to watching Jensen and Alzolay pitch again tonight.

I agree. We had reports of him throwing 97 in side sessions while in Mesa. He's been more like 93 while in Iowa. At this point I don't know if he's all that likely to be placed on the 40-man after the season, though there should be plenty of room with so many relievers coming off the books. It depends somewhat on how many FA relievers they sign. Him agreeing to a minor league contract would be ideal. I obviously have no idea what the internal opinion of him is with the Cubs brass, but signing him to a major league deal just doesn't feel all that likely to me. That could change based on how he throws the last month of the AAA season.

I mentioned Andricson Salvador and Luis Devers as two DSL pitchers worthy of tracking the other day. I was remiss in not mentioning 6'1", 18-year-old RHP Kelvin Feliz. He's apparently shown development as his numbers have improved every month this season. BAA, ERA and WHIP have dropped each month. K% is climbing, BB% is dropping. His numbers for July weren't dominant but good: 22 IP, 18 H, 5 R, 3 ER, 10 BB, 25 K, 1.23 ERA, .234 BAA And his 1st two starts in August are even better: 10 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 K. His ERA on the year is now down to 1.95 after finishing June at 3.47. Again, no idea on the stuff, but it'll be interesting to see if these guys get promoted next season.

You are not mistaken. Kyle Ryan, Allen Webster, Alec Mills and Randy Rosario are also on that list. Rowan Wick will have an option remaining but can elect free agency if sent down. Webster and Rosario will probably be DFA'd this offseason. Mills might be kept around and allowed to compete for the LR role out of spring training and then have a decision made about him. Yeah, that's how see it, too, with the possibility of Webster being kept on until ST depending on his health status. If 40-man space becomes an issue (and it might with the Cubs possibly carrying 4 catchers after adding Amaya and one of PJ Higgins or Jhonny Pereda), I'd expect Webster to be the first to go.

According to AZ Phil's 40-man roster here's a breakdown of 2020 bullpen options. There are a lot of possibilities after Kimbrel ($16 million) and Chatwood ($13 million), but a lack of minor league options for a lot of candidates muddies the water a bit. Spring training battles for some of these guys should be interesting. Chatwood, of course, remains a slight possibility for the rotation. Free agents: Pedro Strop Steve Cishek Brandon Kintzler Xavier Cedeno Free agents with club options: Brandon Morrow ($12 million, definitely not picked up) Derek Holland ($7 million - very likely not picked up) David Phelps ($1 million, $3 million if pitches 30-39 games, $5 million if 40-49, currently has 21 appearances) Tony Barnette ($3 million - has minor league options but can refuse or elect FA) Kendall Graveman ($3 million) Under control but no minor league options: Kyle Ryan Duane Underwood Allen Webster Alec Mills Randy Rosario Under control with a minor league option but can choose FA if sent down: Rowan Wick Under control with minor league option(s): Adbert Alzolay (1) Brad Wieck (1) Dillon Maples (1) James Norwood (1) Justin Steele (2 or 3 depending) Possible 40-man additions: Dakota Mekkes Danny Hultzen (no minor league options left) Tyson Miller Colin Rea

You are not mistaken. Kyle Ryan, Allen Webster, Alec Mills and Randy Rosario are also on that list. Rowan Wick will have an option remaining but can elect free agency if sent down.

No. "Good" is not the word I would use to describe that.

The Athletic's Emily Waldon put out an article about 4 minor league pitchers hit triple digits this year. Here's what she wrote about Marquez. It seems right in line with many assessments of him here.

Last two outings: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K. Keep it going, kid.

9th round pick Tyler Schlaffer made his pro debut tonight giving up 1 hit, no runs, no walks against 2 Ks in 1 inning of work.

Former Cubs prospect Trey McNutt, now 30, may have felt a little extra adrenaline today. Despite having an ERA over 5 at both AA and AAA this year, he shut down the I-Cubs for 3.1 innings allowing 3 hits, no runs, no walks and striking out 4 in Des Moines today. McNutt never made it to Iowa. He stalled out in AA playing there for the Cubs in parts of 4 consecutive seasons before being released in 2015.

Welcome to AA, Mr Patterson. 5 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, 1 HR.

I haven't seen a 95 FB period in the games I've watched. He touched 94 and sat 92-93. The different breaking balls he has are his bread and butter. Their differences are subtle but he appears to have a sharp curve with different shapes and a true slider. He's been throwing them for strikes, too. In his 9 strikeout game, I think 8 of them came on the breaking ball. I wouldn't say he consistently spots his FB, but he's around the plate with it. It seems to me his ability to throw those breaking balls for strikes keeps the hitters guessing which makes his average FB play up. I'm intrigued to see what he can accomplish in AA.