CubsWin

When was the last time the Cubs had a better trio of starting pitching prospects than Marquez, Miller and Abbott? I'm not saying they're great, just that the Cubs minor league pitching has been bad for so long I can't remember the last time they've had 3 starting pitching prospects equally as good...

Marquez's ERA down to 2.52 after 5 scoreless with 4 hits, 6 Ks and just 1 walk.

Dillon Maples last 6 AAA outings: 7.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 14 K, 2.35 ERA, 0.65 WHIP.

https://www.thecubreporter.com/05102019/perez-albertos-and-lee-silence-dbacks-bats-talking-stick Um, can Perez get some love, too...?

Continuing that fun: Jimmy Herron over his last 11 games (48 PAs) - .342/.479/.605 (204 wRC+)

Looks like the same dude he has been - can get Ks but isn’t particularly good at anything else Well, he is getting ground outs at a 55% clip in his small 2019 sample. The year before he got em 52.4% of the time. That pretty good. The walk rate this season is way off from his previous seasons mostly due to that one game, so hopefully that evens out. Previous two seasons he walked guys at a 6-7% clip. That's a pretty good rate. Batters are hitting .222 against him this year and .255 last year with higher than average BABIPs. That's not great but it was average last year and above average so far this season. I wouldn't say he's been dominant in any phase, but over the course of his career thus far, the numbers show he's been above average at not allowing earned runs, getting Ks, getting outs on the ground and not walking people and slightly above average at not allowing hits. To me that's the basic gist of what a pitcher is supposed to be. What are you seeing? (Looking to learn something here, not sarcastic.)

He had that one game where he walked 7 which have thrown some numbers out of whack in his 5 game sample size, but I'm not displeased. The HRs probably don't sit well with you. He's definitely struggled with the long ball early on.

I saw the same report. I took the tightened things up comment to mean either better control, which has been evident when watching him on MiLB.com and/or tighter spin on the curve as a result of his work in the lab.

Jimmy Herron is turning on the jets hitting .394 over his last 10 games with 10 walks against just 4 Ks and 4 SBs to boot. His season long numbers are getting there as he approaches .800 OPS (currently .775 and rising rapidly) with 19 walks and 21 Ks in around 130 PAs on the year for very solid percentages in both categories. Here's hoping this isn't just a hot streak.

Sold.

I don't think Happ is close to ready, unfortunately. He's showing improvement of late, but it's not like he's been raking for an extended period of time. That's what I would like to see before he's called up. If he can keep up what he's shown in the last 9 games (including this one) thru the rest of May, then he will have convinced me. I have no idea, of course, what keys the Cubs are looking for. I'm just going off of overall production. I'm in agreement that I'd like Almora to spend some time in Iowa next, though, assuming he doesn't get hot. It's only his last 10 games/41 PA but Happ has been OPSing .924 over that time (.303/.439/.485) with a 7.5% K% and a 17.5% BB%. I'd rather have him up over Almora or Zagunis. I want him cementing the changes he's made and gaining the confidence that comes with it. That, in my opinion, takes more than a 10 game stretch. Plus, if he were to come up and replace Zagunis now, I'm not sure he gets enough playing time to keep this roll going. Almora I can see.

I don't think Happ is close to ready, unfortunately. He's showing improvement of late, but it's not like he's been raking for an extended period of time. That's what I would like to see before he's called up. If he can keep up what he's shown in the last 9 games (including this one) thru the rest of May, then he will have convinced me. I have no idea, of course, what keys the Cubs are looking for. I'm just going off of overall production. I'm in agreement that I'd like Almora to spend some time in Iowa next, though, assuming he doesn't get hot.

Matt Swarmer appears to have turned things around after a rough start to the season. In his first 3 starts: 15 IP, 17 H, 11 R, 10 ER, 8 BB, 12 K, 6.00 ERA In his last 3 starts: 17 IP, 12 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 4 BB, 21 K, 2.65 ERA

Brennan Davis strikes me as another version of Jonathan Sierra. Different skill sets, but really raw and if it all comes together, look out. I don't think it's going to all come together for Sierra. Let's hope it's a different outcome for Davis...

Yeah, I agree that would be ideal. I don't know if he has the stamina to be a starter with the way his body started to break down after consecutive seasons of over 100 innings pitched. His lat injury may have had nothing to do with workload and could just be coincidence but it makes you wonder. He probably could be a valuable pen arm at the major league level, but our pen has actually been really, really good since April 7th. They got off to a very rough start (as did much of the starting rotation) and created the narrative that the Cubs pen was in trouble, but they've righted the ship. Now, with Morrow out for much of the season and a pen that may be overperforming, reality could set in fast. But the Cubs have some high quality depth in AAA. 1. Edwards is doing really well for the I-Cubs. 2. Montgomery's rehab is ending soon. 3. Maples can ride the shuttle all year and has been absolutely filthy. I like him, even with his control issues. You just can't bring him in with men on yet. 4. Cedeno and Barnette are no great shakes, but good depth pieces. Cedeno is out of options, but Barnette has 3 years left (though it's unclear if he can elect FA if sent down). 5. Kyle Ryan can ride the shuttle, though he's been great thus far. 6. I can see the Cubs placing Brad Brach on the IL from time to time to buy roster space. 7. James Norwood, Rowan Wick and Tim Collins all have options remaining (though Collins can refuse assignment and elect FA). 8. Further away but still on the 40-man, the Cubs have Oscar De La Cruz and Justin Steele who could contribute effectively later this year. (I'm not including Duane Underwood who is also on the 40-man because I think he's done. Not enough movement on his FB, it's too hittable for batters to care about his above average curve.) Adding someone dominant at the top of the pen to push everyone down is never a bad idea, but otherwise I think the Cubs can handle injuries and poor performance via in-house options pretty well as is. I mean, that's a lot of quality depth there.

Welcome news from AZ Phil: Last year, Alzolay's change up was said to be a work in progress. He seems to have made some progress...

Delvin Zinn is hitting .419 over his last 10 games and I still don't care.

From the posts above and his hot streak of late, it looks like Roederer will not go the route of Velazquez and be demoted to Eugene once their season starts. It will be nice to have a true 19 year old in full season ball once again following in the footsteps of Ademan and Amaya. Keep em comin', Cubs.

Ha! That's awesome. I never knew about that rule either. Welcome to AAA, Addy...

Keep forgetting about Alzolay. It'd be really nice if he can stay healthy at AAA and put up excellent numbers becoming a viable major league pen option this year. With Maples already up, Edwards, Alzolay, Happ and Russell in AAA and Clifton potentially emerging as an option (though he'd have to be added to the 40-man), that would be some amazing AAA depth for a team that's already deep at the major league level. The Cubs could handle underperformance from any optionable players (Almora, Schwarber, Ryan, etc.) and/or any injuries without losing too much performance. Heck, the players coming up might even produce better!

I'm here for the punishment. Chatwood, Heyward and Maples are all basically fixed (not perfect) and will be good contributors from here on out as the Cubs win the Central and the Series this year.

The Cubs front office has repeatedly and openly acknowledged their faults in scouting and developing pitchers in their first few years of existence. I agree. It's clear the results have not been good. That said, they seem to be coming close to turning that around. Often the forgotten man, Trevor Clifton is off to a strong start in AAA. He's 23 (will turn 24 in 9 days) and his season line reads: 16.2 IP, 9 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 9 BB, 24 K, 1.08 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, .155 BAA, 3.39 FIP, xFIP 4.08. It's a very small sample. His xFIP isn't that great and his BABIP is due to rise at .242, so it's likely his numbers will regress towards his career averages, but how far I don't know. We've seen recent out-of-nowhere breakouts before for this organization (Contreras, Bote, etc.) but they've all been hitters to date. And this wouldn't strictly qualify as out-of-nowhere as Clifton has had solid seasons at HIgh A and AA prior. As Raisin posted in yesterday's thread, one such breakout could be happening with another 23-year-old Tyson Miller (who turns 24 at the end of July). His BABIP is absurdly low at .191, but we have to take into account that BABIP in the minors can often simply show that a prospect is dominating that level and is ready for promotion. I don't think we are there yet with Miller. It's too early, but if this keeps up for another 4-6 weeks, the sample size gets big enough to justify challenging him in AAA. Miller's season line: 25.1 IP, 12 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 7 BB, 25 K, 1.07 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, .138 BAA, 2.15 FIP, 3.48 xFIP. Call me crazy, but I like pitchers who are difficult to hit. So far this year, Clifton and Miller have been exactly that. (I'll take a moment to pat myself on the back for choosing Tyson Miller and James Norwood as my 2018 breakout candidates. Don't worry I get more wrong than I do right...) Then there's 23-year-old Cory Abbott, who will be 23 all season. Mr. Consistent has put ERAs of 2.47 in 47.1 IP in Low A, 2.53 in 67.2 IP in High A , and 2.86 in 28.1 IP thus far in AA. Under Theo, the Cubs have picked a lot of disappointing pitchers in the 2nd round (Underwood, Zastryzny and Stinnett) but Abbott has hopefully reversed that trend. His season line: 28.1 IP, 28 H, 10 R, 9 ER, 5 BB, 28 K, 2.86 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, .259 BAA, 3.33 FIP, 3.18 xFIP. That's 3 starters, AA or higher who are off to promising/dominant starts this year. We'll see how they look come June, but for now, they give us hope that the Cubs are not as terrible at drafting and developing pitchers as the prevailing theory suggests. There's also a longer list of guys with a chance like Adbert Alzolay, Matt Swarmer, Keegan Thompson, Justin Steele, Thomas Hatch, Oscar De La Cruz, Bryan Hudson, Paul Richan, Brailyn Marquez, Riley Thompson, Cam Sanders, Yovanny Cruz, Jeremiah Estrada, Danis Correa, Richard Gallardo and others who can emerge in the coming months further re-writing this notion of institutional failure.

What is Bryan Smith thinking?? You don't do that? Why tempt the fates!? Miller gives up two singles to lead off the 7th...

That's 2 QS in a row for Swarmer.

Underwood sitting 93-95. Throwing a change and a curve as well. The FB doesn't seem to have a lot of movement on it but he's placing it where he wants it with some consistency. He looks physically strong.