CubsWin

I got no problem with Davis, Roederer, Morel, etc. starting the year in ExST and then Eugene. Davis and Morel are still quite raw and would benefit from the opportunity for the type of instruction they can get in Mesa. Roederer started off red hot hitting .373/.475/.647 in his 1st 13 games which allowed him to finish with a solid slash line (275/.354/.465), but finished the year hitting .220/.280/.363 in his last 23 games. He could stand to get coached up as well. All 3 are just 19 (Davis and Roederer will be so all season), and if they are killing it in ExST, can always start off in SB before the start of the short season leagues if the brass thinks they're ready. If any or all of them progress like a top prospect can, there's no reason why they couldn't be in AAA by the time they're 21 or 22. Given the Cubs current youth and depth of position players at the major league level, that works for me. I get (and share) the desire and excitement to see them play full season ball right away (and if the FO starts them there, all the better), but I'd rather see them prove it and put up great numbers in Eugene first than struggle in South Bend the way Velazquez did last year. Not only would that aid in their development, but putting up good to great numbers in short season before being promoted in the 2nd half would likely make them more attractive trade bait than struggling in SB and having to be sent down.

Here's another piece on the Cubs system this time from MiLB.com. No real new news in it, but they do make an interesting prediction towards the bottom of the page. MiLB Cubs Prospect Primer

That's the first I've heard Pablo Aliendo being mentioned as a "big name". Good to know...

Can I like this more than once? Like 100 times?

According to AZ Phil, the Cubs minor league sim games indicate that Derek Casey and Cam Sanders will begin the year in the South Bend rotation with Trevor Clifton being moved to the Iowa bullpen.

I tried to couch it with the “generally speaking” but, yeah, you guys are right. Fair enough, brother.

Yeah, when it's this early in spring training, this list (that AZ Phil puts out every year) is pretty much meaningless. It's more like working groups than it is a strong indication of where these guys will start or what the Cubs think of them. The one level down thing only comes into play when major league camp gets down to a more manageable size where the guys that are left in camp are basically locks for AAA (or AA) with little risk of being cut entirely.

Now they're just early spring training stats, but so far he's pitched 3 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K which in and of itself would be meaningless if not for the glowing report above. I don't know if he has a clause where he can elect free agency if he's not placed on the 25-man or 40-man roster by a certain date, but he's currently not on the 40-man and is out of options which means he can start in AAA but, if the Cubs bring him up, he can't be sent down without passing through waivers and (I believe) getting Webster's permission to do so. So, basically, once he's up, he's up unless he gets placed on the DL, I'm sorry... IL. It's an incredibly crowded bullpen picture right now and the Cubs ideally would like to break camp with at least one guy with options who can be sent down when Morrow comes back, but with the Cubs emphasis on urgency, if Webster keeps pitching like this, he's got a shot at not only breaking camp with the team, but becoming a meaningful part of the Cubs bullpen. He's only got 170 days of service time, so if he becomes something he is under control for a full six years, too. Nice! I'll take that.

Of the myriad of minor league reliever options, Allen Webster has looked really good thus far in spring training action. Here's AZ Phil's report of his 1st outing... Now they're just early spring training stats, but so far he's pitched 3 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K which in and of itself would be meaningless if not for the glowing report above. I don't know if he has a clause where he can elect free agency if he's not placed on the 25-man or 40-man roster by a certain date, but he's currently not on the 40-man and is out of options which means he can start in AAA but, if the Cubs bring him up, he can't be sent down without passing through waivers and (I believe) getting Webster's permission to do so. So, basically, once he's up, he's up unless he gets placed on the DL, I'm sorry... IL. It's an incredibly crowded bullpen picture right now and the Cubs ideally would like to break camp with at least one guy with options who can be sent down when Morrow comes back, but with the Cubs emphasis on urgency, if Webster keeps pitching like this, he's got a shot at not only breaking camp with the team, but becoming a meaningful part of the Cubs bullpen.

Couple things I disagree with: - Prospects in the 30-35 range are almost definitely going to be lower quality than the 10-20 guys. The majority of that 10-20 is easy to justify over guys who'd rank nearly 20 spots lower. Swarmer is more the exception than the rule even for where this system is. They're going to have less pedigree than a Lange, Gallardo, or even 2nd round pick Richan and 3rd rounder Miller. No one's going to have as much of a pro track record as a Short with his power/speed/defense playing at AA. Guys in the same age range won't have been as recognized as Velazquez or Cruz so far as pros. Can't really think of a guy they skipped hard on, maybe Estrada but no one knows what happened to his 2018 - The case for Swarmer over Thompson is a pretty easy one to make. Swarmer's 2018 was a little better - more dominant in High A (more Ks, fewer HRs) and better in AA - and he's the more physically talented of the two. He's bigger and has more room to physically improve, already throws harder, and has both the more deceptive and athletic delivery (doesn't struggle to repeat or throw strikes with). Both guys are going to give up HRs, if they make it to the majors, as they're flyball pitchers who haven't been great at keeping the ball in the park as pros. Swarmer's seem more likely to be solo HRs since he was harder to hit (Thompson gave up more than a H/IP making the leap to AA) and walked fewer batters. I'm not even sure Thompson actually has 5 effective pitches either, and definitely couldn't say what his top two pitches are like with Swarmer. You are certainly welcome to disagree, and your reasoning is sound, but it kinda proves my point a bit. The folks at MLB disagree with both you and I on Swarmer. He didn't make their top 30. And whereas we are two incredibly intelligent Cubs prospect experts, whoever put their list together can't exactly be an idiot. And yet, here we are. I'd have Swarmer around 20, they had him lower than 30. I think that's because after the top 10 or so in this system right now, they're a lot of guys with high-ish floors but low ceilings or guys with upside who are totally unproven, or guys with upside coming off of injury, etc. such that they could be reasonably ranked in a variety of different orders.

Welp, here we go again. Oscar De La Cruz looked (sounded) impressive on the radio broadcast of the Cubs first spring training game receiving praise from Len Kasper and the color guy (I think it was Coomer). He sat 96 with movement while hitting the corners with it. He induced weak contact on two of his outs and struckout the first guy he faced for a perfect 9th. Obviously it's just the first data point, and I'll have to (once again) remain patient to find out the answer I've been waiting now several years to find out. Just who is Oscar De La Cruz and can he live up to his years long hype? Clearly I want him to succeed, but is it weird that I'd rather he completely flame out than remain an enigma...?

Is priority FA another way of saying UDFA? I'm unfamiliar with that lingo. Yeah. Priority guys though are the ones that typically have a lot of teams vying for their services and have multiple offers. Usually guys that had draftable grades. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk Gotcha. Thanks, raw.

Yeah, me too. But that's the thing with the Cubs system right now. The guys 10-20 aren't clearly better than guys around 30-35. You can make the argument that Swarmer's two-pitch mix is more effective than Thompson's 5 pitch mix. But you can also say that Thompson has a greater chance of being a starter and that gives him more value than a two-pitch reliever. It's all in the eye of the beholder right now and on a top 30 list, you gotta rank them somewhere. Hopefully after this season there will be more clarity. I think sometimes with top 30 lists, experts who have to do them for all the teams can sometimes rely on draft pedigree. Thompson and Miller were drafted in the 3rd and 4th rounds, respectively, while Swarmer was much later (19th). I don't know...

I mean, Swarmer and Estrada are in my top 30, but I can't make a definitive argument for them over who was listed. I can make a good one, but not definitive. So much clarity is lacking on who some of these guys really are and what they can become right now. It should make for an interesting year following a comparatively weak system. There is a lot of upside in this group compared to recent years. Marquez, Roederer, Davis, Ademan, Gallardo, Cruz, Thompson, Morel, Albertos, not to mention some not listed like Estrada, Correa, Franklin, Americaan, Pertuz, etc. It'll be fun tracking them. But there's also a lot of BOR guys that still have a lot of questions to answer. How does Swarmer's stuff play at the upper levels? Will Lange's change up become consistently plus? Are the seasons Tyson Miller and Cory Abbott had last year for real or will they struggle in AA? Will Little finally fulfill the potential the Cubs saw in him? Who the heck is the real Erick Leal? Can Bailey Clark stay healthy and join Mekkes as a legit relief prospect? Can Craig Brooks? Can Trevor Clifton be an effective ML BOR? Can Underwood? If just a few of those questions are answered positively, it would be a fruitful season. Ah, hope springs eternal in the minor leagues. I think that's why I like following so much.

This is one of the better Cubs top 30 lists in a while from MLB. Normally, they're head scratchers. Maybe it's because there's so much vaguery after the top 4 right now that you can pretty much make an argument for just about anybody in any order (within reason) after that...

Is priority FA another way of saying UDFA? I'm unfamiliar with that lingo.

I'm wondering if Callahan comes out being more expensive than Amos and that the Bears re-sign Amos as a result and draft a nickel corner in the 3rd or 4th. I hope not but they may have to financially. Taking a look at recent draft rankings, there's only one CB ranked in the 3rd to 4th round, but 3 safeties are ranked in the 80-90 range, right when the Bears will have their first pick...

I think they actually lack depth on D right now. RRH will be back. He's an exclusive rights FA, means he can only negotiate with other teams if the Bears don't tender him. DL has pretty good depth with RRH, Nichols and Bullard behind Hicks and Goldman. IDK that Bullard is expendable unless you bring in a replacement for him. But other than the DL, and maybe ILB (though we don't know if Iyiegbuniwe can play) they lack depth on D. Questions behind Mack and Floyd. Questions in the secondary if Callahan and Amos walk as the depth would be starting. I'd like them to see if they can maybe pull a player-for-player deal with Kwiatkoski or Bullard, and go after depth at a bigger need position (TE, CB, OLB, OL). I like your trade idea. I think we might be just missing on semantics. Having quality depth at every position is incredibly rare. That would be like having no weaknesses. I'm not saying that. I'm saying that compared to other defenses in the league and previous Bears defensive rosters, they have a lot of quality non-starters. Their biggest weakness is secondary depth, but Robertson-Harris, Nichols, Kwiatkowski, Acho, Bush and McManis are all proven solid (some moreso than others, obviously). Add in Isaiah Irving (who has flashed), Iyiebuniwe, Fitts and Tolliver (who have untapped potential) and that's pretty darn good. Moving forward, they've already got the next waves planned out, but they need to continue to draft well in the middle rounds to fill in the back row. RRH replaced Bullard as the primary 3rd DE (after Unrein left and Bullard became the starter). Nichols is already the primary 2nd DT. (I see RRH and Nichols as starter quality.) Irving replaces Acho next year. Iyiebuniwe has a year to show if he can replace Kwiatkowski or (heaven forbid) possibly fill Trevathan's shoes. We'll see in camp whether Fitts will be a capable replacement for Lynch. McManis isn't Callahan, but he didn't get embarrassed when he filled in after Bryce's injury. Tolliver's got the upside to back-up Amukamura but isn't there yet. To me, there's good depth there. They have needs. I'd expect them to draft two DBs and a LB this summer. On the offensive side, I'd like to see a guard and a RB. What positions do you see them going after?

Also, the free agent safety field has great depth this year. Might keep the price a little lower on Amos...

I like the depth this Bears defense has right now. I think it's a priority to bring back Roy Robertson-Harris. Bilal Nichols will likely make Bullard expendable. We haven't seen what Kylie Fitts and Joel Iyiegbuniwe can be yet (due to injury) but both could be viable replacements for Aaron Lynch and Nick Kwiatkowski moving forward. Sherrick McManis and Deon Bush have been serviceable. Kevin Tolliver saw some game time last season as a UDFA. Pace has done a good job drafting in the middle rounds. We'll see what he can add in rounds 3-5 this year.

Rumors say 8Mil+ per year. Hopefully for the sake of cap space, it's structured like 6, 6, 10, 10, with 12 guaranteed. But assuming it's not, only room for only 1 of Callahan/Amos. All 11 starters on offense are back, whether you count Miller or Shaheen as the 11th. Throw in Cohen and your top 14 are back on O. Defense has 10 of 11 starters back (9 of 11 if you call Callahan a starter and not a 3rd DL). Other than Amos, Callahan and Lynch every other contributor on D is due back in 2019. Bring one of the DBs back, and you're looking at going into the offseason needing competition for 1 starter on D (w/ Bush if Callahan back, w/ McManis if Amos back), a punter, and the rest are deep depth needs, with emphasis likely on a 3rd OLB, a backup guard, a backup DB. According to Sportrac, Massie is paid 3.8 in 2019, 8.3, 9.3 and 9.4 after that. Massie was pretty bad in his first season after signing (he even admits it), but he's been really solid since, so he should be (I hope) worth it... The Bears can save/open up $6 million by cutting Dion Sims (they'd still be on the hook for $333,000), and why wouldn't they with Shaheen looking like a more than viable 2nd TE. That would give them just under $12 million to spend. Can they resign Callahan and Amos and fill their other depth needs for that? Maybe, depending on their demands. I wouldn't say it's guaranteed to be an either or situation. I mean, would you walk away from playing for this defense and a decent chance at going to the Super Bowl for a little extra dough? If a team blows them away with a great offer, it likely won't be matched though. That said, they could both walk depending on how Pace sees their budget moving forward. They're going to have decisions to make on Cody Whitehair, Danny Trevathan and Jonathan Bullard coming up next year with possible extensions for Leonard Floyd and Eddie Jackson the year after.

Yeah, unfortunately, Jared Young is a 1B/LFer. I don't know where else he would be listed. The Cubs have apparently moved on from him playing 2B. He played 2 games at 2B last year, 21 in left and 81 at 1st. It's possible they did that to get his bat in the lineup more consistently (he also DH'd some), but it's not like 2B was a position loaded with good prospects in South Bend and Myrtle Beach such that they didn't want to take games away from other guys. FWIW, the limited numbers we have for him at 2B in the minors (3.45 RF, .966 fielding %) say he's pretty much a butcher.

Not a fan of Jim Bowden, but FWIW he's putting out a top 200 list on The Athletic. So far, he's published 101-200. Looks like Amaya will be the only Cub in his top 100. Here are the Cubs listed thus far. (He seems to think Cole Roederer didn't play last year, so let that be an indicator of the quality of his work...)

I seem to remember another prospect with the last name of Made in the Cubs organization around 9 or 10 years ago.