CubsWin

I know. When I heard Dan O'Dowd say it on the broadcast my immediate reaction was "oh no, that's who they comp'd Russell to!"

This is pretty awesome. I wonder how often that happens? One prep player playing against another at a showcase or something and they later are drafted by the same team in the same year.

And NOW, it's time to play everyone's favorite game show: Who's... Your... Comp! 1. Ed Howard - Barry Larkin 2. Burl Carraway - Mark Langston (if he was 2 inches shorter and never a starter) 3. David Nwogu - Glenallen Hill 4. Luke Little - A left-handed Dillon Maples 5. Koen Moreno - C.J. Edwards with a lower metabolism

Take Howard with the 16th pick and let em battle it out! Should be fun to watch. Yeah, I'm good like that. Lots of inside connections with members of MLB front offices. I'm basically Regular Show but better. I told Theo in February to take him. I'm just glad he finally listened!

Jose Albertos lives!

BA finally tying the Cubs to arguably the highest ceiling arm and only true CF prospect in the draft? Finally and get it done, Kranovitz! Wells screams smoke screen...No one thinks he can catch...OTOH he mostly fits the org's tendencies during the initial rebuild by coming off a big regular season and CCBL in 2019, still not too worried he's actually someone they would take Is there a joke I'm not privy to by calling him Kranovitz? Seriously asking. Not sarcasm.

I haven't minded the previous Cubs draft philosophy of taking college hitters (for the most part) in the 1st round because it worked out so well. It's fair to say they haven't missed on any college bat they've taken with their first round pick. But I've always been a fan of upside especially when you're drafting in the latter third of the 1st round where high floors often come with a lower ceiling. When you have a successful team (and you're picking in the 20s), your system will eventually start lacking high ceilings (unless you get really lucky or spend big on one guy in IFA every year). So for the last 3 seasons, I've caught myself drooling over some high upside prep prospect or unproven rocket arm only to be disappointed with a lower-ranked, less expensive pick like Little/Lange instead of Nate Pearson or Griffin Canning, or Hoerner instead of Shane McClanahan or Ethan Hankins (though my thirst for upside was quenched with Davis and Roederer in the next round). I'm not writing this to say I knew better. All I have to go on is a publication's rankings. Nico Hoerner has defied the odds to date. I'm writing this because I find myself coming back to this same thirst again. Reading that names like Mick Abel, Nick Bitsko and possibly even Robert Hassell and Austin Hendrick could still be there at 16 has me once again dreaming on upside. Is this foolish, especially in a truncated scouting year? Conventional (and sound) wisdom says in this environment a team should go with a guy with an extensive scouting history. You don't want to miss with your 1st round pick, after all. But then my gambler's brain kicks in and says, when there's a potential, high upside stud available (the likes of which the Cubs haven't had a chance at in 5 years), perhaps you take advantage and zig when the other teams are zagging. Am I putting too much emphasis on previously high rankings of players like Abel and Bitsko? Even though the Cubs system lacks in upside, is the smart play to take someone with a higher floor and not gamble on the unknowns of a prep player who falls? Almora was ranked in the top 10 and taken 6th overall. That didn't turn out so well. The Cubs haven't taken a prep player in the 1st round since. Help! I need your input... Your thoughts?

I don't think those mechanics are repeatable. Might have trouble throwing strikes consistently...

Moises Ballesteros was listed amongst the “best of the rest,” outside the top 30. If Hernandez doesn't immediately make the Cubs top 10 prospects, either that description is a little rosy or it's a really good sign for the Cubs system as a whole...

Is there another top prospect list put out by MLB.com? Well, MLB.com is very large and employs many writers, like Jesse Sanchez for example. He primarily covers international baseball and he might create a list for top international players or prospects? Not sure honestly, but he is not a part of MLB Pipeline. So, no then. Thanks. Got it.

By MLB.com, I think you're referring to MLB Pipeline, which is run by Jim Callis, Jonathan Mayo and Mike Rosenbaum. Those 3 are the ones in charge and come up with the lists. Is there another top prospect list put out by MLB.com?

Finally, an MLB.com list that makes sense to me. And I like the new format, too. Of course, by "makes sense to me" I mostly mean that I agree with. I'm no expert, but we always think a list makes sense when it basically lines up with our thinking, heh. But MLB's lists have had some odd inclusions and orders the last several years. Did someone new do it this year?

Well that worked out well. I’ll take the extra year of development time especially since Quintero and him are both catchers.

Give me all the Venezuelan catchers!!!! I think the Cubs already have them all! By my count, they have 15 catchers from Venezuela currently in their system not including Ballesteros (though some might get released before the start of their season), and they had at least 1 Venezuelan catcher play at every level last year with every catcher but one in the DSL being Venezuelan. Willson Contreras (MLB, AAA) Erick Castillo (AAA, AA) Jhonny Pereda (AA) Miguel Amaya (High A) Gustavo Polanco (Low A) Johnathan Soto (SS-A) Henderson Perez (AZL) Edgar Gamargo (DSL) Malcolm Quintero (DSL) Miguel Fabrizio (DSL) Pablo Aliendo (DSL) Miller Chacon (DSL) Brayan Mancilla (DSL) Ronnier Quintero Brayan Altuve and now, apparently Moises Ballesteros.

Excellent post, Bertz. You forgot Brayan Altuve! The list is longer than you thought! Yeah Myrtle Beach could be a lot of fun this year. At varying points during the season, they could have Davis, Morel, Roederer, Jensen, Strumpf, Franklin, R. Thompson, McAvene, Clarke and Velazquez (who is need of a breakout). Heck, Marquez could start there, and don’t forget the triumphant return of Jose Albertos has a dominant reliever...!

McDaniel leaned Howard so these two prospects might start a war Take Howard with the 16th pick and let em battle it out!

Yeah, they might not get him. They could outbid everybody and still not get him. They could then go after Springer if they wanted and outbid everybody and not get him either. But none of that would make this an "inexplicable move" because they still have to address the 2021 pitching situation. Trading Bryant and Contreras isn't the only way to do that, but it is a viable way that has a ton of upside and a good floor. I'm not disputing that there are realistic, defensible scenarios where trading Bryant and/or Contreras makes sense. We're on the same page there. That was the point I was trying to make. This year, yeah, I think for some reason I don't yet understand it seems like they want to stay under the CBT. But the immediate goal isn't to do all that to sign Betts. The immediate goal is to address the 2021 rotation in a smart way that sets themselves up with the financial flexibity to make moves after 2020. If they get a big fish all the better. It's either that or pay big bucks on 29-33 year old arms on multi-year deals/dumpster dive and hope to catch lightning in a bottle. Both are viable options, but so is the trade scenario. And that was the point I was out to make.

Yeah, they might not get him. They could outbid everybody and still not get him. They could then go after Springer if they wanted and outbid everybody and not get him either. But none of that would make this an "inexplicable move" because they still have to address the 2021 pitching situation. Trading Bryant and Contreras isn't the only way to do that, but it is a viable way that has a ton of upside and a good floor.

I also like the idea of replacing Bryant's production at similar contractual cost one year later by signing Betts while also having acquired good, young arms and a good CFer. The Betts thing is huge to me, it’s impossible for us to know. But if doing whatever back checking they can do Theo and Co. feel like they can go all out to get him and he would come here that would make me feel a whole better with trading KB if we could feel reasonably certain Mookie is all part of this equation. Yeah, that would have to be part of the calculation. Theo drafted him, but they didn't have much time together in the organization. One thing is certain, though, they could outbid anybody for his services if they wanted to.

That’s where I’m at, you at least can see how it works this year if you keep the core and move some margins around. Next year could be tough to really contend regardless if you keep the core or do trades this year with the pitching needs. Trading KB punts this year, effectively, and then leaves next year as a pretty big roll of the dice that one (or more) of these young pitching prospect is actually good and turns out and you’re able to add Mookie to be able to contend. Fletcher's pretty good. He and Caratini is definitely less than Bryant and Contreras, but I don't see the Cubs being completely out of the running in the NL Central in 2020. Anyway, it's just one of many trade possibilities that would result in the same thing, lessen your chances in 2020 and reset your roster and payroll for possible dominance the next season and beyond. There's nothing wrong with just keeping it going for 2 more seasons though...

I guess the reason for flipping or pivoting would be the lack of ANY development of pitching to date. I’m sure it was in the plan that by this point they’d have a real internal option or two for a SP role and some bullpen roles. The lack of that may have changed the equation a bit with needing so much pitching next year that he had to go against his core beliefs/how he would ideally prefer to build. With all the pitching holes needing to be filled next year it’s pretty hard to expect to really contend with internal options and the FA options and doing no adds through trade. That’s at least my stab at it as a reason why they’d suddenly pivot off of how they seemingly prefer to build things. My preference would be to just keep KB this year and try and maximize things but I can at least get the sentiment of the other idea here. I also like the idea of replacing Bryant's production at similar contractual cost one year later by signing Betts while also having acquired good, young arms and a good CFer.

I feel you, but they're kind of doing that here, aren't they? They drafted hitter and he got really good. Now they're trading him for a mix of major league pitching a top 40 prospect who is AAA and something else (whatever the Braves agree to or the Cubs prefer). Pitching prospects at the lower levels are a lot more of a crapshoot. Here we have the possibility of both major league ready and soon to be major league ready. If they'd had more success at drafting and developing their own pitching, they wouldn't have to trade for it or spend big dollars to get it from guys in their 30s, but they didn't. The choices that face them now are handing out more big contracts after this season for guys who are 29-33, go dumpster diving, hope for the best and risk having a crappy rotation 3-5 while having a really good line-up, or lessen your chances this coming season to retool with a good, young rotation with a high ceiling AND have the money to sign Betts or Springer. Going the FA agent route is a viable option. But I think going the trading route is just as viable, maybe even better. It's above my paygrade to say for sure.

So not just pitching but any pitching because they're all good? For Kris Bryant? Realistic? I guess I'm hitting a wall, too. I'm not sure what you're having a hard time understanding. The Braves have a lot of good arms both in the majors and in their system. One could build a package any number of ways. You want to build it around Fried because you really like him? Okay. You want to focus on Ian Anderson and go from there? Fine. You really like Kyle Wright the most? Sure. You think Bryce Wilson is overhyped, but would rather have Kyle Muller? Cool. You like Sean Newcomb as a secondary piece better than Kyle Muller? Go for it. You want a CFer of the future like Drew Waters instead of another pitcher? Okay, the Cubs could ask for an arm from the Angels instead of Brandon Marsh. Does that help clear up what I wrote?

In response to posters saying there’s no conceivable reason to trade Kris Bryant, I wrote that they were lacking imagination, and that I see some possibilities. I was asked to “show my work”, so here goes. Have at it. Tear it apart. This post is really, really long, so here are the Cliff’s Notes: The Cubs have a pitching apocalypse coming after this season. The rotation is either going to get more expensive and have 4-5 guys in their 30s (for years to come) while the Cubs keep the band together for 2 more seasons. Or they’re going to trade Bryant for young arms, trade Contreras and Bote (while signing a FA 2B like Brock Holt) for a 3B replacement and a good CF prospect, and have a group of good, young, controllable arms behind Darvish and Hendricks while saving enough money to sign Betts or Springer next off season. Possible specific deals: Trade Contreras and Bote to the Angels for 3B David Fletcher and CF Brandon Marsh Trade Bryant to the Braves for good, young, controllable pitching (something along the lines of Sean Newcomb, Ian Anderson and Bryce Wilson). The specific names don’t matter. The Braves have so many options, you can build a trade however you like. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Okay, so here's the problem. After this season, the Cubs will have only Darvish and Hendricks under contract in their rotation. They have guys like Alec Mills or Colin Rea and prospects like Brailyn Marquez, Adbert Alzolay and Cory Abbott, but, obviously it would be foolish not to add significantly to that list. They will have Lester, Quintana and Chatwood's money coming off the books, so maybe they can afford to go out and buy a starting pitcher or two in free agency but it's not the strongest field. On top of that, the Cubs will also have an increasingly expensive and aging payroll to consider. With the Marquee channel up and running, the Cubs should once again be able to spend over the tax threshold. I certainly don't have any inside knowledge, but it's reasonable to think the range would fall between $230-$250 million after this season. If the Cubs don't trade Bryant or Contreras and extend Baez, here's about what the payroll will look like give or take: Heyward - $23 mill AAV Darvish - $21 mill Javy - $25 mill (could be more, could be less) Bryant - $28 mill Contreras - $10 mill Schwarber - $12 mill Hendricks - $14 mill Kimbrel - $14.3 mill Rizzo - $7.6 mill (unless he's extended then 25ish?) Bote - $3 mill That's roughly $158 million for 10 players. With 16 arb or pre-arb guys to fill out the major league roster plus insurance, that probably brings it to around $185-190 million with 3 rotation spots left to fill, no CFer outside of Happ/Hoerner and a likely need for a reliever (or two). You could sign 2 good FA starters and hope the 5th spot can be adequately filled from within (Mills, Rea, Marquez, Alzolay, Abbott, Cotton, Miller, K. Thompson, etc.), but there aren't that many good FA starters available next off season. Tanaka and/or Paxton (both 32) would have to be pried away from the Yankees in the midst of their window. Robbie Ray (29), Mike Minor (33), Marcus Stroman (30) and Anthony DeSclafani (30) make up the best of the rest, unless you want to touch the hot stove that is Trevor Bauer (30). If you sign 2 of those guys and hope to field a good 5th starter from within, that's likely going to cost at least $35-40 million assuming one of those pitchers is really good and thus more expensive. So that brings us to $225-230 with a possible need to improve in CF and a likely need for at least one reliever. That's doable. The Cubs could simply roll with Happ in CF after seeing how he does there this season, but they don't have a CFer in the system who will be ready by next off season unless Hoerner shows he can play above average defense there. If not, since in this scenario we aren't trading off our major league roster to get one, that leaves FA. Luckily, George Springer is scheduled to be available (with Jackie Bradley, Jr., [expletive] Hernandez and Jake Marisnick as much less desirable options). But, unless ownership will be willing to exceed $250 million, you probably can't afford Springer. So now you're left shelling out FA dollars for one of those other guys or playing Happ/Hoerner there. That's a good enough roster to be competitive in 2021. It's certainly a way to go. It's got some major drawbacks, though. It's expensive and short-sighted, not to mention aging. It also is only a one year solution because you're going to have extend Bryant and Rizzo in 2022. If the Cubs fill their rotation with good FA agent starters next off-season, ownership would have to be willing to go to around $290 to keep the band together. Not only does that not sound realistic to me, it doesn't sound like the best way to go for the roster's sake either given all the huge contracts that will have been given out to aging players. All of this comes down to answering the following question: what is the best way to build a good starting rotation for 2021 and position the team to be competitive beyond 2022. And, of course, that brings us to examining trades. The market for Bryant will never be higher. Not only is he a consistent 5+ WAR player who is in his prime and has 2 years of control (we assume), there are teams with a lot of young talented arms that have a specific need for a player exactly like him right now. The drawbacks are obvious though. You don't have a good 3B replacement on your roster or the upper levels of your system, and you're definitely going to hurt your chances in 2020. The one position where the Cubs do have good depth, though, is at catcher. Vic Caratini looks like the real deal and could step into a starting role this year with Amaya advancing through the system starting the year in AA. You'd take a hit with offensive production by trading Contreras, but Caratini put up a wRC+ of 108 last season and was a 1.4 fWAR player in just 279 PAs. Metrics have him as a better defensive catcher than Contreras so the Cubs' 2020 chances would likely take another hit by dealing Willy, but not a big one unless Caratini majorly regresses. So there appears to be another possible way forward other than keeping the band together for two more years. In this possible scenario, it's difficult to know which exact players the Cubs would be acquiring. Too many variables between the two front offices and how they evaluate the players involved, but we do know there are teams that match up really well for both Bryant and Contreras. The two best in my mind are the Angels for Contreras and the Braves for Bryant. The Angels just signed 3B Anthony Rendon which potentially frees up their previous 3B, David Fletcher, to be dealt. Fletcher is similar to a young Ben Zobrist. He's good defensively at multiple positions (way better than Bryant at 3B), walks at a league average rate, rarely strikes out, gets on base, makes contact and was a league average bat (wRC+ of 99) last season with a 3.4 fWAR. He's 25, is controllable for another 5 seasons and it's reasonable to think his bat still has some projection to it. The Angels also have a huge need at catcher and are clearly going all in this season. After shelling out $35 million for Rendon and still hoping to add a good starter via free agency, someone like Contreras at his salary, is just what they're looking for. They also have 2 good CF prospects. Jo Adell isn't going anywhere, but Brandon Marsh is 22, just hit .300/.383/.428 in AA and carries a 60 grade in speed and arm with a 55 in fielding. He may not have the power Happ has, but at 6'4" he's got the frame to add some and is already a way better defensive CFer. Can you get Fletcher and Marsh for Contreras? It's in the realm of possibility given how motivated the Angels are this off season, but still a lot to ask, especially because it leaves a hole at 2B where Fletcher was penciled in for this season. The Angels do have La Stella on their bench who had a great season with the bat, but he’s a butcher with the glove, so someone like Bote would make a great righty/lefty platoon with him. Add in the Joe Maddon factor in Anaheim and it looks even more possible. So Contreras and Bote for Fletcher and Marsh (plus maybe some prospects involved in their somewhere). Getting Fletcher gives you a replacement for Bryant and a good one (but not nearly as good). Now the Cubs would need to find a motivated team that needs a 3B and has a lot of quality starting depth. That's describes the Braves to a tee. With Rendon leaving the division, the Braves are wanting to strike now. They got a jump on the market signing Cole Hamels, Travis d'Arnaud, Will Smith and Chris Martin. They're going for it, and the "final piece" is an impact bat who can play 3B/OF, but doesn't cost $35 million for the next 7 years. If they re-sign Donaldson, the Cubs would have to move on to other teams like the Dodgers, Nats and Phillies. The fits with those teams may cause the Cubs to trade Contreras to a different team like the Astros or Padres. If the Braves don't re-sign Donaldson, they certainly have a lot of pitching from which to deal. Their current rotation features Soroka, Hamels, Fried, Folty and Sean Newcomb. They could re-sign Teheran at a discount after releasing him if they’re so inclined. Their pen is also well stocked with Melancon, Smith, Martin, Shane Greene, Jacob Webb, Touki Toussaint, Luke Jackson who was pretty good last year and A.J. Minter who was terrible last season but really good prior to that. As if that weren't enough, the Braves also sport two top 40 pitching prospects, Ian Anderson (#31 on MLB) in AA last year and Kyle Wright (#35 on MLB) who was in AAA. Anderson was picked 3rd overall in 2016 and Wright 5th overall in 2017. They also have two highly regarded secondary arms in Bryce Wilson and Kyle Muller. On top of that, they have two top 25 prospects that play CF in Christian Pache (#11 on MLB) and Drew Waters (#23 on MLB). So their depth also matches up well with Cubs needs. Guessing at which combination of players the Cubs and Braves would agree upon is next to impossible. There are simply so many variations to consider. You could go after all pitching in the form of Newcomb (with the idea of returning him to the rotation in 2020 allowing you to deal Quintana for a reliever), one of Anderson/Wright and one of Muller/Wilson. Is that enough? I don't know. That's above my paygrade. The point is there are a lot of options with the Braves that will fit the Cubs needs going forward and still leave the Braves capable of going all in this year and still retain depth in pitching along with a very good CFer of the future. The Cubs don't necessarily have the Braves over a barrel, but if you're going to get Bryant, it's gonna have to hurt. Maybe you can get Anderson and Wright plus something else? Maybe you want to build the package around Fried. But what motivates the Braves even more is that there's not one team but two in their division that want Bryant, and both teams are good enough already that by adding him, they'd gain the upper hand in the division. It's the perfect storm. So if they went this route, where would that leave the Cubs? Well, their 2020 chances would definitely take a hit. Would they be out of the running? No, but their chances of winning the division would definitely be lessened on paper. What would the 2020 payroll look like? Lester - $26 mill AAV Heyward - $23 mill AAV Darvish - $21 mill Javy - $25 mill assuming he's extended (could be more, could be less) Schwarber - $8 mill Hendricks - $14 mill Kimbrel - $14.3 mill Rizzo - $7.6 mill Chatwood - $12.7 Descalso - $2.5 Almora - $1.8 Winkler - $750k (split contract) The rest are pre-arb with Colin Rea in his 1st year of arbitration. That's roughly $142 million. With arb guys, buyouts and insurance, let's call it roughly $165 million. If Quintana isn't dealt for a young reliever, $175 million. The CBT is expected to be $210. Let's assume the Ricketts want to stay under that. The Cubs would then have around $40 million to spend ($30 with Q). What would the roster look like? C- Caratini 1B - Rizzo 2B - FA (Brock Holt, Starlin Castro, Scooter Gennett - the list is long at 2B/SS) SS - Baez 3B - Fletcher LF - Schwarber CF - Happ RF - Heyward Rotation - Darvish, Lester, Hendricks, Newcomb, Chatwood/Mills/Alzolay/etc. Bullpen - Kimbrel, Wick, Reliever for Quintana, FA signing, Ryan, Wieck, Chatwood/Mills/Alzolay/etc. (Or keep Quintana and put Newcomb in the pen for now.) The Bench: FA catcher, Descalso (or cut him and sign somebody), Kemp (or cut him and sign somebody), Almora (maybe), Hoerner (at some point), etc. There are a lot of solid bench options on the market currently. One possibility is to sign Akiyama on a 2-year deal, allowing Happ to come off the bench on some days. With $40 million to spend (some on 1 year deals), and a lot of quality middle infield and reliever options still available, the Cubs could round out their roster quite well. Well enough to be the clear favorite in the NL Central this season? No. But they aren’t that necessarily now with Bryant and Contreras. Yet, on paper they’d be worse. But these trade ideas were never about this year. So let’s look at how they’d set up for 2021 and beyond. The rotation: Darvish (34) at $21 million AAV Hendricks (31) at $14 mill And then a bevy of young, controllable arms from which to choose (whoever is most ready). Without knowing exactly who would be coming back in a Bryant trade, we can only speculate. But let’s say the group includes: Sean Newcomb (28), 1st year of arbitration Ian Anderson (22), Pre-arb Bryce Wilson (23), Pre-arb Brailyn Marquez (21), Pre-arb Cory Abbott (25), Pre-arb Adbert Alzolay (26), Pre-arb Jharel Cotton (29), 1st year of arbitration That rotation would cost somewhere around $40 million. What about the line-up? C – Caratini (27), 1st year of arbitration 1B – Rizzo (31) extended at $25 million 2B – Hoerner (24), Pre-arb SS – Baez (28) at $25 million 3B – Fletcher (26), Pre-arb LF – Schwarber (28), extended at $14 million?? CF – Marsh (23), Pre-arb RF – Heyward (31) at $23 million AAV That line-up would cost somewhere around $95 million, give or take. That puts the Cubs at $135 with bullpen, bench and a potential hole in CF. If Kimbrel is performing well, but the Cubs are out of it in 2020, they could deal him if they want, but let’s say he’s still with the team in 2021. That would bring the payroll up to around $150 and let’s estimate when all is said and done it’s at $175. If Akiyama is signed, he could help ease Brandon Marsh in at CF. Here’s the thing. Without the need to spend 2020 free agent dollars on pitching and the Cubs estimated 2021 payroll being at $230-250, the Cubs could easily afford to outbid anyone for Springer or Betts (the 2 best free agents available next season and way better than any pitcher who could be signed). You’d have an OF mix of Betts/Springer, Schwarber, Marsh, Heyward and possibly Akiyama. Imagine this line-up: 3B – Fletcher LF – Schwarber RF – Betts 1B – Rizzo SS – Baez C – Caratini 2B – Hoerner CF – Marsh With Heyward, Happ and possibly Holt coming off the bench. Defensively, Rizzo, Baez, Fletcher, Betts and Marsh are really good. Caratini and Hoerner are above average and Schwarber is average to slightly below. The rotation will be good, but could possibly be great if one of Anderson or Marquez fulfills their potential. And we know it will be under control for years to come. Okay, now tear me a new one!

Lol. You're not defensive at all, are you... I just want to point out that during this debate over whether to trade KB we've kept things civil (for the most part) and that's a good thing. I don't agree with CubinNY and greatly dislike his response here. CubsWin should be allowed to explain himself without getting attacked like that. Also, the Mods need to step in when situations like this happen (you know what I'm talking about). Thanks, Reg. I appreciate that.