CubsWin

Tyson Miller as a breakout pitching prospect?

Over the last several seasons, the Cubs have done a good job of producing legit prospects from out of the woodwork. In 2015, 10th rounder Ryan Williams went 14-3 with a 2.16 ERA skipping High-A and dominating AA in his 1st full professional season and, of course, who can forget the magical emergence of Willson Contreras who hit .333/.413/.478 with almost as many walks as Ks. Contreras was basically an afterthought to everyone except the late John Arguello at that time. His previous best line was .248/.320/.423 two years earlier in Low-A Kane County. In 2016, 18th rounder David Bote slashed a surprising .337/.410/.518 for Myrtle Beach, 12th rounder Trevor Clifton had his coming out party and 9th rounder James Farris established himself after allowing 48 hits and 17 walks against 74 Ks in 66 innings in High-A and AA. For those that don't remember, Farris was traded that winter for Eddie Butler. Last year, unheralded IFA Adbert Alzolay worked his way into our hearts, and the all-but-forgotten Dillon Maples came back from the dead to place himself squarely on the prospect map. I guess you could say Michael Rucker had a mini-breakout, as well. So... Who's it gonna be this year? AZ Phil has his money on Eddy Martinez, and I agree. Though less forgotten, Bailey Clark looks like this year's version of Dillon Maples. I also think James Norwood might emerge. Who are your breakout candidates?

I like the sound of that...

Went back and watched Bailey Clark's last outing on 4/19. First off, he is a man amongst boys in the MWL. Dude looks huge compared to some of these 19-20 year old hitters. Clark looks to be in great shape. 6'4" and solidly built. A lot of these hitters look downright anorexic by comparison. This was Clark's best outing thus far going 3.1 IP allowing 2 hits, no runs, no walks and 7 Ks. Velo reports had him 94-96 on the FB which looked pretty straight. He kept it down for the most part but I wouldn't say he "commanded" it. He's got a consistent curve which he used often early in the count to get ahead. I'd call it an average pitch but he knows how to use it and commands it well. Better than your typical "get me over" curve, but it's not thrown with great velocity (no readings were given). I did see a few sharp sliders. He threw the curve a lot more often. The few I saw were effectively thrown off the plate to right-handers for swinging strikes. I'd love to see him start that slider at the right-handed batter and have it break over the plate, but I only watched one game. If he keeps throwing like he did in this game, he won't be long for the MWL. He's had control problems in his recent past so keeping him there until he strings together several outings with consistent control would be wise before having him face more advanced hitters in the CL.

Austin Gomber* And despite this outing, he's still not anything worth noting. Ha! I don't know where I got Matt from.

Oh boy. Matt Gomber, 2014 4th round pick for the Cardinals, dominates the I-Cubs today. 16 Ks, no walks. Iowa finishes with 17 Ks and no walks on the day losing 3-0 to Memphis.

Any word on velo? Brendon Little: 1st inning: 92 FB, solid consistent location on FB and curve, sharp 10-5 breaker that he effective kept low getting a swinging K on a curve in the dirt to end the inning. 2nd inning: 90-92 FB, very much a carbon copy of 1st inning. HR was off of a FB at the top of the zone. Didn't seem to be hit all that hard but carried out to LF. Single was a high pop up that Brandon Hughes over ran. Another single was a high hopper over the mound that was booted by SS Narea. Another nice curve in the dirt for strike three to end the inning. Pitch count ran high this inning due to the two singles that very easily could've been errors. Cubs got a reliever up indicating they're very interested in protecting Little early in his development. 3rd inning: No velo readings given. Quick inning with 3 ground outs. Only had one pitch (a FB high and outside) that missed it's mark. First 2 GOs were to right handers off of FBs down and in that were rather weakly hit to the 3B. Little keeps the ball low in the zone consistently leading to a lot of balls hit on the ground. It's easy to see some Lester in him. The down and in FB likely doesn't have the cut that Lester's does, and the velocity is a tick or two lower, certainly lower than Lester in his prime. 4th inning: Announcers spent the inning chatting with the Lansing announcer (whose mic they never turned up) about cake, snacks, nicknames and movie references, but Little left a few pitches up and paid the price with a walk and another opposite field HR by Williams. But was otherwise around the plate. The only velocity they gave was an 88 mph FB from Little. May have been tiring as this was the most pitches he'd thrown in his professional career. Once again, Little ended the inning on a swing and a miss of a good curve in the dirt. 5th inning: First time pitching into the 5th since being drafted. Again 88 on the FB (only velo given). Not wild, but FB control not as good as in innings 1-3. A walk and two stolen bases set up the 4th run scoring on a GB to 3rd. Still throwing good curve balls.

It looks like he's shed a lot of it this off season. There's a little more to go, but he's always going to have a more stocky build. He's still just 20, so he's got time to continue to tone it up.

No notes on Trevor Clifton as the Smokies broadcast was, once again, unwatchable. Whoever is mixing the sound for that broadcast consistently has the in-stadium feed (PA announcer, walk up music, inane sound effects, etc.) 5 times louder than the play-by-play. Can barely hear the announcer. Alex Lange: First thing you notice is his build. He just looks like a major league pitcher. The difference of quality of athlete between Low-A and High-A is noticeable as it is between High-A and AA. 1st inning - Nice inning for Lange. Kept the FB low with good control. Was inconsistent with curveball command early on but, when it was on, it was very good with tight 12-6 break. PBP announcer Scott Kornberg gave no velo readings. 2nd inning - More of the same from Lange. No velocities given. 3rd inning - Consistently around the plate in good spots (on the corners, kept FBs down, good curves in the dirt and over the plate). Got a K on a CU in the dirt. 4th inning - Hitters started to turn on the inside FBs. 2nd run scored from 3rd on a wild curve 5 feet too high and outside. Went to the change more in this inning with good outcomes. CU starts in the center of the plate and dives down and in to right-handers. 5th inning - Breezed through. The curve and the change up were most effective. FB got hit hard but DJ Wilson made a great diving catch. Got the 3rd out on a swinging strikeout on a 3-2 change. 6th inning - Had thrown 81 pitches thru 5. Pitch count was set at 95. This was his first time pitching in the 6th this year. Don't know if he was tired but, results wise, he should've stayed in the dugout. Inside FB hit sharply for a single. Center cut FB driven in the gap to drive in a run after which he was pulled. Lange's 4th ER scored when 2B Monasterio threw the ball wide of 1st on a double play that would've ended the inning. Notes: Casey Bloomquist took a line drive off the back of his head. He immediately went down as the ball ricocheted into short left field. He walked off the field under his own power and did not appear to be woozy. Hopefully, he'll be okay.

Finally got my MiLB subscription up and running. Any velo readings given will be passed along. Javier Assad: He looks to have slimmed down a bit from last year. 1st inning - 90-91 FB, looping curveball. Struggled to find his spots. Got a called 3rd strike on a much tighter curve (could've been a change up) perfectly placed on the outside corner. 2nd inning - 91 FB, better control of the both the curve and FB. Darin Pritchett (South Bend announcer) didn't give any other velo readings. Assad walked his only batter. Got out of a bases loaded situation with 2 outs on a great catch by CF Zach Davis. 3rd inning - 92 FB, 75 mph CB, bases loaded again, this time with 1 out on a HBP and two singles. Got out of it on back to back Ks, both swinging, one on a tight curve on the outside corner and the second on a high FB. 4th inning - 91-93 FB, some with some nice arm side run over the outside corner (to right-handers). Better placement of pitches this inning. 76 on a nice (less looping) curve. 5th inning - 91 FB, 74 change up. Continued better control. Buzzed FBs under the hands to left-handers with confidence, got a called strike 3 on one of them. Notes: Assad definitely got better as the game went along. Command improved on all his pitches and was effective in innings 3-5. He's likely going to have to add velo on his breaking balls (and maybe a tick or two on his FB) to be effective at the upper levels, but so far, he's able to beat MWL hitters with what he's got. Got hit a bit, especially in the first two innings. Amaya looks to have improved his receiving behind the plate. He blocked several breaking balls in the dirt. The box score doesn't tell the story on Amaya's 0-2 on stolen base attempts. His arm looked strong and accurate on his one throw. Impressively, he almost threw out Kevin Smith on a curveball in the dirt with a perfect throw after digging it out while beginning to get out of his crouch. The other SB was by Reggie Pruitt (who can flat out fly) on a pick off attempt, so Amaya never touched the ball. 2017 10th rounder, Brian Glowicki's only velo reading was a 90 mph FB.

For those of you who go back a ways, former Cubs #1 prospect Felix Pie, who had been out of professional baseball since 2013, has resurfaced in the Mexican League at the age of 33. His slash through 82 AB is .354/.427/.659 with 5 HR, 10 2B, 12 K and 12 BB.

Yeah, with the injuries to Ryan Williams and Alec Mills last season, the Iowa rotation was made up exclusively by veteran minor league FAs until the arrival of Tseng in July. And it had largely been that way during the Theo/Jed regime as they rebuilt the pitching roster from the bottom up. In terms of homegrown prospects who had a legit major league future at the time, you'd have to go all the way back to Jeff Samardzija in 2008-2010 and Rich Hill in 2005-2006.

Alzolay looks for real, but I'm leery of Underwood still (fast start notwithstanding). I tend to discount starts to a season in general (fast or slow), especially when it's the player's first at a new level, but I'll take a fast start any day... The Cubs FO focus on pitching is finally populating legit prospects at every level which includes AAA for the first time in a while. But as much as the rotation has improved, the pen has also. Maples got off to a bumpy spring and start to his AAA season, but he's still got a very high reliever ceiling. The rest of the pen provides some of the best reliever depth the Cubs have had in Iowa in the several years. Outside of Zach Hedges, the rest of the pen arms each have major league stuff. Any one of them could be called up during the season with the decision likely going to the hot hand. That kind of depth comes in handy during a championship run.

The beginning of the minor league season is always a frustrating time for me. I've waited all off season for it to start, but because of the nature of the game and the youth of most of the players, the first 30 IP and 100 PA for guys are kind of meaningless. We all hope for good starts for guys and become wary of poor starts to the season, but there really is no intelligent reaction to any early returns other than patience. As much as I don't like it, I just have to wait to see where guys are after their first 30 IP and 100 PA. Even then, especially for the younger players, this is all about development. The Cubs clearly don't have any top 25 prospects right now or anyone I'd expect to be blowing the competition away, so I'm just looking for improvement unless they're older guys or repeating an upper level like AA or AAA. Even then, they're still just getting their feet under them, playing semi-sporadically due to poor weather. I can't wait for May...

I knew he was destined for the pen! It's early yet, but I nominate this for post of the year.

Yep! Also from AZ Phil: It'll be interesting to see if Morel starts the season in Eugene as well. Jonathan Sierra and Jose Gutierrez should fill out the OF along with Velasquez. An infield of Morel at 3B, Vasquez at SS, Zinn at 2B and Hildago at 1B wouldn't be boring. Personally, having Luis Diaz at 2B instead of Zinn would spice it up a lot more. Fernando Kelli could surprise in CF over Gutierrez. He's been hitting consistently in ExST as well as stealing bases at a solid clip (almost every game). If we go off of innings pitched at Mesa last year, the rotation will likely include Marquez, Estrada, Carrera, Ridings and Colorado. (Jesus Camargo is currently at ExST, but I expect he'll be in South Bend before the short season year begins.) There is reason to believe, however, that 2017 mid-season DSL call ups Emilio Ferrebus (20) and Danis Correa (18) could displace Ridings and Colorado. If they do, that would give Eugene it's youngest rotation since becoming a Cubs affiliate with an average age of 19. The Cubs usually don't do that. There's almost always a college arm or two in their rotation, but Jaron Madison did just say this (per the Athletic): We'll see how young they'll go in Eugene. I'd say the chances are against it given that there will be two AZL teams this year, but if these prospects are as talented as some reports are making out, the Cubs haven't been afraid to let the cream rise and challenge some of their younger prospects by having them skip a level.

Time to call your baseball stock broker and buy San Diego Padres futures. Among the youngest prospects at every level: PCL - AAA 2. Luis Urias, El Paso (SD) 20.8 Texas League - AA 1. Fernando Tatis, San Antonio (SD) 19.2 4. Josh Naylor, San Antonio (SD) 20.8 5. Logan Allen, San Antonio (SD) 20.9 California League - High A 1. Eguy Rosario, Lake Elsinore (SD) 18.6 2. Adrian Morejon, Lake Elsinore (SD) 19.1 3. Hudson Potts, Lake Elsinore (SD) 19.4 4. Kelvin Melean, Lake Elsinore (SD) 19.6 Midwest League - Low A 1. Justin Lopez, Fort Wayne (SD) 17.9 2. Tirso Ornelas, Fort Wayne (SD) 18.1 3. Gabriel Arias, Fort Wayne (SD) 18.1 4. Jeisson Rosario, Fort Wayne (SD) 18.4 6 prospects in MLB's top 50 plus the top 4 youngest players in the Cal League and the MWL. That's fairly impressive...

Nice info from AZ Phil:

If there were any other legit options at Iowa, he would be in the pen already. I've long thought that's where he'd wind up due to his inability to stay healthy and that his middling stuff might play up out of the pen. He's missed a lot of development time due to earlier injuries that even if he's destined for the pen, the Cubs may want him starting in AAA (or wherever) just to get him the reps. All in all, I don't expect much at this point. As always, happy to be proven wrong...

Did we get $$ on Guerra? $10K? $20K? I think for a new guy in new country, going through full Mesa experience would seem to make sense, depending on what his life and language experience is. I think they have lots of English classes, plus of course lots of Cubs Way instruction and stuff. Much more teaching and practice, lots of fields, etc.. Once in full-season, lots of long bus rides gobble up time that can be spend on instruction in Arizona. I sometimes wonder how much instruction guys really get once they reach full-season? I'm pretty sure he got 250-300K. With some saying he was determined to sign this period, or he could have gotten more..... Your point about English classes may be valid, its obviously important. It was $300,000. English classes makes sense. Easing him into a new culture and making him as comfortable as possible could be a reason. He's also around 275 pounds and needs to get in better shape. Perhaps working out at the complex under the watchful eyes of their training staff and dietician might be a reason as well.

Welp, Cory Mazzoni is back. Dodgers tried to sneak him through waivers and the Cubs claimed him. I wonder if he had even packed his bags yet. At least the trip from Sloan Park to the Dodgers spring training complex in Glendale is just 30 miles. Well, 60 miles round trip...

The Cubs pitching prospect depth has really filled out over the last two seasons as the front office focused heavily on pitching in the draft and on the IFA side in 2015. Some assignments could still change with 4 days left before full season minor leaguers break camp, but this is likely how the staffs will line up to start the year. AAA There are still question marks about a lot of the Cubs pitching prospects in Iowa. Tseng walks a fine line needing consistent command of his pitches to be effective. Alec Mills is coming off a lost season due to injury. Underwood finally stayed healthy last year, but he's got a lot to prove as far as being effective, especially in a hitter's league like the PCL. Alzolay and De La Cruz could join mid-season depending on health and performance, of course. Both seem to be fast risers at this point. The bullpen has some bright spots. Maples struggled with his control during ST but has plenty of time to work on it now, and his ceiling is still very high. Justin Hancock impressed in Mesa this spring, as did Randy Rosario. Shae Simmons was throwing 95 today on the backfields. Lefty Alberto Baldonado was bringing heat this spring. And Craig Brooks and Daury Torrez showed promise last season. AA With how well De La Cruz looked in ST and his subsequent promotion to Tennessee, the Smokies rotation looks fairly exciting. Alzolay, De La Cruz and Hatch form a solid top 3. Rucker and Robinson put up solid numbers against younger and less experienced competition last year. It will be interesting to see how they'll do against AA hitters. And Clifton has an opportunity to have a bounce back season. Dakota Mekkes, Jake Stinnett and James Norwood are all interesting arms at the top of the bullpen. High-A Alex Lange looks like he'll break camp with Myrtle Beach. He, Bryan Hudson and the oft-injured Erling Moreno create the top and middle of the Pelicans rotation. Jose Paulino and Tyson Miller look to fill out the bottom with 2017 3rd rounder Keegan Thompson the main piggyback. Not much to get excited about in the relief corps. Chad Hockin and Wyatt Short will likely share the closer duties. Yapson Gomez, an older IFA guy, has had some success at the lower levels. Low-A This group is probably the 2nd most exciting next to the rotation in Tennessee. Jose Albertos and Brendan Little are both top 10 prospects within the organization. Javier Assad has a MOR ceiling. Cory Abbott has pedigree as a 2nd round draft pick, and Jesus Camargo put up excellent numbers in Eugene last year and likely has the best change up in the organization next to Kyle Hendricks. 2017 4th rounder Erich Uelman and 7th rounder Ricky Tyler Thomas are likely the piggybacks for South Bend. The pen is pretty interesting too. The latest reports had Bailey Clark hitting 97 on his FB with a wipeout slider. The Cubs may have him piggyback to get him more innings, but I see him having the potential of a power pen arm. Manuel Rodriguez and Jhon Romero put up dominant numbers last season. Rodriguez's stuff is reportedly a bit better, but Romero's 91-93 FB with excellent control and an above average breaking ball steamrolled MWL hitters last season. Eugene/Mesa With 3 rosters to fill (1 in Eugene and 2 in Mesa), there's a lot of pitchers to follow in extended spring training this year. Jeremiah Estrada (19), Brailyn Marquez (19) and Danis Correa (18) are the most interesting of the bunch for me. Estrada was sitting 95 in Mesa last year. Marquez sits 92-94 from the left side, and Correa was sitting mid-90s while reportedly touching 99 which is surprising given his 5'11", 155 lbs. frame. Estrada and Marquez will likely start in Eugene along with 6'8", 2016 8th rounder Stephen Riddings. If Correa does also, it will be a very pleasant surprise. Including the arms already stateside, several pitchers currently at the Dominican Academy will come north for ExST. One would imagine Yovanny Cruz, Didier Vargas, Jonathan Bruzual, Ferrol Heredia and 2017 IFA signee Florencio Serrano would be among them.

Roster moves per AZ Phil: It's a shame Sands never panned out. That injury was the last straw. Wonder if Brockmeyer will be brought back as a coach/instructor at some point. He was a loyal organizational player whose catching abilities were widely praised.

Luis Diaz has been putting up some nice numbers so far in minor league ST. After his DSL breakout last season, it'll be interesting to see if he starts in Eugene or one of the Mesa teams. C Jhonny Pereda has looked good thus far especially behind the plate. He threw out 4 of 4 attempted base stealers the other day and has been getting a decent amount of hits. There's still time for this to change, but according to AZ Phil's latest roster update, Aramis Ademan is still listed with Myrtle Beach and Christopher Morel is listed with South Bend.

Is this true or is it mostly that most guys don't earn promotions so fast? This is the same FO that has had several teenagers in full season ball during very recent seasons, got Russell and Baez to the MLs by 20/21, Bryant and Schwarber in the majors during their first or second pro seasons.... Yeah, you're right. They've had a few. But they're all elite, top 20ish prospects. I guess Happ is the lowest ranked guy? No pitchers though. Talent helps. Maybe we'll get a better indicator, with Lange this year? Just those 2 guys 2nd full year, obviously important for them. If they're truly highly thought of, they'll hit Iowa by midseason and maybe get a few ML innings in September. Which would be fascinating and excellent draft results for a college senior and a 4th year junior that weren't taken inside the top 200 picks. There are a lot of reasons why teams might promote a player. If they believe he has the make-up to battle through some struggles, they may promote him more aggressively (especially if he is already considered a top-ish prospect and/or at a position of need). There may be a log jam at one level and someone has to get kicked up a level (sometimes this is an indication that they think that player is the most ready of that lower group, other times it's because they consider him more of an organizational guy). They could promote a guy to have him work with a specific manager or coach. Heck, a team could promote a guy so that he will struggle and get humbled a bit. It's difficult to know case to case. Generally, it's good thing. In this specific case, it seems to me that two things are at play. First, the Cubs have gone so heavily pitching (especially college arms) in the last few drafts, that they have too many possible starters for each level. It's not just in Tennessee that we are seeing this situation arise. It is normal to have piggy-back starters in South Bend, but this year we are seeing that possibility all the way up through AA. Second, Duncan Robinson acquitted himself quite well last year. He was 23 facing players with much less experience in the MWL and the CL. Maybe the Cubs want to see how his stuff fares against players of a similar age and experience level. You could easily make the argument that De La Cruz is ready for AA, but he's starting off in Myrtle Beach again. Maybe the Cubs wanted De La Cruz to start in Myrtle Beach because he'd be more comfortable there or because their trainer has a history with him and someone had to move up. Who knows? Ultimately, the reasons are vague enough and the pitching roster is deep enough that this isn't really a big deal. The season is long and players' performances will clarify things over the coming months.