CubsWin

I wonder if, given the extreme restrictions the Braves face over the next 3 years in signing IFAs, they would value players like Jonathan Sierra, Yonathan Perlaza, Brailyn Marquez, Yovanny Cruz, Fernando Kelli, Luis Diaz, Luis Verdugo, etc. as sweeteners in a larger trade for pitching than other teams would? Say a trade from surplus (for both teams) like major league ready offense (Happ and Caratini) plus someone like David Bote (or whomever) and three IFAs for Julio Teheran (coming off a down year with 20 million still owed), one of their younger pitching prospects (Wright, Soroka, Anderson, or Wentz) and AJ MInter (a lefty reliever with a good FB and control with minor league options left - 20th ranked prospect per MLB) who could ride the Iowa shuttle and provide relief depth. That would leave the Braves with Newcomb (25) Foltynewicz (26), Fried (24), Gohara (21) and Sims (24) as starters with major league experience along with Allard and 3 other remaining top notch starting prospects (out of Wright, Soroka, Anderson and Wentz). They have two catchers over 30 in Tyler Flowers (32) and Kurt Suzuki (34) under contract thru this year only with Caratini waiting in the wings. Happ would replace Markakis (34) who could easily be traded with one year at 11 million left on his contract. Am I in the ballpark or way out beyond the LF wall...?

That makes sense for the Twins given they couldn't resign Marte without putting him on their 40-man. Take part of the Marte money and get Severino.

I completely understand those who have doubts about this signing. There's a fair amount of risk to it. His health history isn't great. He's never thrown more than 158 innings in a season. His K rate isn't special and his walks went up last season. But here's why I like this signing and why I wanted Chatwood more than Cobb (or any other FA starter) this off season (not saying the Cubs think they are an either/or proposition). For all the fWAR/bWAR discussion, keep in mind he's put up those numbers while pitching half his games (roughly) in a very inhospitable environment for pitchers. Assuming health, it's not unreasonable to think he can put up 3 WAR a season for the Cubs. Colorado's infield defense is middling while the Cubs' was ranked #1. His elite GB rate will translate to more success with Russell and Javy behind him. This is already folded into his away splits (which are pretty darn good in a lot of respects), but his spin rate on his curve and fastball is also elite. Playing at altitude takes the edge off that advantage. With the Cubs, his spin rate can once again serve him in consistently getting better results. With any performer, comfort level and confidence brings out the best in a player (just ask Maddon, he tell you, over and over again). Just knowing you don't pitch in Coors on a regular basis can arguably relax any pitcher and increase his confidence. As a prospect, Chatwood had an elite curveball. In his one year with the Angels, he threw it 17.6% of the time. With the Rockies (likely due to the elevation and dry climate), he threw it much less often (4.8% in 2016 and 11.2% last season). With potential of a plus curve being thrown more often, it will only enhances his chances to keep hitters guessing and off balance. There are other reasons like plus FB velocity and the fact that he signed for his age 28-30 seasons that also help. Finally, cost. The years and the AAV ($12.667 million) is way better than what teams will get by signing Cobb or Lynn, two starters who I think will provide comparable performance. Health is my main concern. Both Cobb and Lynn have had TJS, but Chatwood's history is even shakier. IF he can stay healthy, for me, he's clearly the best value of any MOR/BOR pitcher on the market and has a a pretty good chance to perform better than them too.

It very well could be another clue. But then again, it could just be a team that is trying to make themselves as attractive as possible. We have no way of knowing. Feel free to draw any inkling or conclusion you like, however. It's wide open to interpretation. For me, the whole west coast thing boils down to preferring teams that have spring training in AZ, otherwise why would the Cubs and Rangers be included? Much speculation has gone into him preferring an AL team because of the DH and the fact that he hasn't played in the OF in years, but why would 4 of the 7 teams be in the NL then? Others point to him possibly wanting to be in a small market, but then why are SF, LA, CHC and LAA included? So we can count money concerns as equally vague. Why include teams that can only give you a $300,000 signing bonus if money is an important, determining factor? Again, you might be right. I certainly have no idea. I just think the criteria for Ohtani are so intertwined and widespread amongst the 7 finalists that attempting to draw any conclusion at this point is futile. Unfortunately, all there is to do is wait... and hope.

Do you know who those two are? According to MLB.com, SS Ronny Rojas (11th overall) is the only IFA prospect listed with the Yankees being the favorite. (Not doubting your recollection just wondering who it is.) Of the 6 remaining unsigned top 30 IFAs, only one is reported to be linked to another team. SS Jelfry Marte (3rd overall - released by the Twins because of vision problems) OF Raimfer Salinas (6th overall), C Antonio Cabello (8th overall), SS Osleivis Basabe (24th overall), OF Wildred Patino (25th overall) and Stir Candelario (29th overall linked to the Mariners) are all listed as unsigned by MLB.com. Obviously, unless some of them choose to wait until the next signing period, the Cubs are out on these guys. And with teams like the Mariners and Angels trading for 2017-18 IFA money (and other teams with money still left to spend), one or both of them (if they don't get Ohtani) will have funds to potentially sign some of them. EDIT - I guess the Cubs could be in on Marte. I think he was declared a free agent. It all depends on the severity of his vision issues. They've been linked to Salinas and Cabello, though they were considered wild cards even at the start of the signing period. Actually, they're also linked to Basabe but BA has him ranked 48. Thanks, Raisin.

Same here. I am hoping beyond hope we get the 15 year old, 96MPH guy at this point. Severino and the Cuban OFer(Martinez) seem likely to wind up with the Yankees. They were mentioned today with them. I'd take a flyer on Contreras. But using 17-18 money. I'd like Bae. But, I'm not positive he's in the same position as the rest of these guys. His contract was voided. He may not be a guy we can give the extra 200k to. Not sure if we can use 18-19 money on him yet. That's disappointing on Severino and Martinez. The Yankees also were linked to two top 20 prospects from the 2017-18 class they had slow played in case they needed funds for Ohtani. Do you know who those two are? According to MLB.com, SS Ronny Rojas (11th overall) is the only IFA prospect listed with the Yankees being the favorite. (Not doubting your recollection just wondering who it is.) Of the 6 remaining unsigned top 30 IFAs, only one is reported to be linked to another team. SS Jelfry Marte (3rd overall - released by the Twins because of vision problems) OF Raimfer Salinas (6th overall), C Antonio Cabello (8th overall), SS Osleivis Basabe (24th overall), OF Wildred Patino (25th overall) and Stir Candelario (29th overall linked to the Mariners) are all listed as unsigned by MLB.com. Obviously, unless some of them choose to wait until the next signing period, the Cubs are out on these guys. And with teams like the Mariners and Angels trading for 2017-18 IFA money (and other teams with money still left to spend), one or both of them (if they don't get Ohtani) will have funds to potentially sign some of them. EDIT - I guess the Cubs could be in on Marte. I think he was declared a free agent. It all depends on the severity of his vision issues.

Right on cue! http://money.cnn.com/2017/12/05/news/companies/japan-airlines-boom-aerospace-supersonic/index.html Theo's good. Damn good.

I'd be okay with Cobb on a 4-year deal at 14 per, but for me the best combo of performance, potential and cost is Tyler Chatwood. Cobb is a more skilled pitcher and better baseline performer than Chatwood. According to you. (By the way, you left out potential and cost.) For me, Chatwood's potential is higher because his stuff looks to be better and he's younger. His cost (and likely length of contract) by all estimates will be lower. Plus his performance away from Coors Field is better than Cobb's most recent numbers. So for those 3 criteria, I lean Chatwood. I would agree Cobb presents less risk right now.

I'd be okay with Cobb on a 4-year deal at 14 per, but for me the best combo of performance, potential and cost is Tyler Chatwood.

Any idea on how we find out if he has any option years left? Is there a site that lists that kind of stuff?

I mean, it's not like it's an AAV...just a signing bonus. Yeah, that's true. Dammit, I had already resigned myself to accepting the dumb Yankees getting him. STUPID HOPE. I think it's safe to give up that hope. Ohtani definitely wants to hit, but by "hit" I think he means DH. He hasn't played the OF in 3 years. When he was 19 (in 2014), he played 8 games in the outfield. He played 54 games there the year before. I guess Theo wants his arm in the rotation bad enough that he'll commit to allowing Ohtani to start a few games a week in left/right field, but the question is does Ohtani feel comfortable playing defense out there. Does he even want to? All things considered, for me, it's an AL team. Now if Ohtani prefers to play in the outfield, that brings the Cubs back into it with the Dodgers likely being ahead of them. Dammit, I guess that means there's still a sliver of hope. Well, I tried...

This list makes a lot more sense to me. We don't know who rounds out 11-20 but at least you can see the reasoning behind this top 10. I'd probably have Albertos, Alzolay and then Ademan but that's quibbling. I'm encouraged BA likes Velazquez and Tseng as much as they do. I like Tseng there and would've had Velazquez in the 15-20 range, so it's cool that guys who presumably know a whole lot more than I do have him higher. I'm interested to see if the Cubs can add anyone to their top 20 from the Braves prospects that were cut. Maitan is a long shot, but there are a handful of other guys that, if signed, could sneak into the back end of the Cubs top 20. That doesn't say a lot about the state of the Cubs system, but hey, you gotta start rebuilding the system somewhere. C Abrahan Gutierrez (15th ranked in 2016 IFA class by BA) got $3.5 million. INF Yunior Severino (8th ranked in 2016 IFA class by BA) got $1.9 million. RHP Yelfri Del Rosario (26th ranked in 2016 IFA class by BA) got $1 million and SS Livan Soto (16th ranked in 2016 IFA class by BA) got $1 million. Each of those players aquitted themselves well in rookie ball this year as 17-year-olds.

The seven points for the teams to address in the Ohtani questionnaire, per the LA Times: 1. An evaluation of Shohei’s talent as a pitcher and/or a hitter. 2. Player development, medical, training and player performance philosophies and capabilities. 3. Major League, Minor League, and Spring Training facilities. 4. Resources for Shohei’s cultural assimilation. 5. A detailed plan for integrating Shohei into the organization. 6. Why the city and franchise are a desirable place to play. 7. Relevant marketplace characteristics.

I think this is a good thing for the Cubs. If he is looking for a team to blow him away with an articulate and detailed plan etc that is where Theo can shine These were my thoughts exactly. We don't know exactly how he would prefer to be used, but it seems clear from previous comments he'd like to be a 2-way player. What's most encouraging about that questionnaire is it seems money isn't a top priority. And as you said, if any organization can put together a well thought out, detailed plan it's one run by Theo and Jed. They do their research. They know what makes that individual comfortable (David Ross for Lester, etc.), the little things that are important to them (their favorite charities, etc.) and what helps them be successful on the field. They also have an incredibly deep, young roster and now a history of winning. We still don't know exactly what this comes down to for Ohtani, but this development has to improve the Cubs chances in the abstract.

Just FYI, INF Fabian Pertuz signed for the max $300,000 and was the only other invite to instructs, per AZ Phil, alongside Mexican SS (and 30th ranked IFA prospect by MLB) Luis Verdugo.

The Orioles just traded away $500,000 of 2017-18 IFA pool money to the Rockies for Konner Wade. Who? http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=592831#/career/R/pitching/2017/ALL This guy is nothing special. A 25-year-old pitcher with not good numbers who has never pitched above AA. I guess Baltimore truly had no plans to sign anyone else before July 2nd because they seemingly just gave that pool allotment away. Certainly team's will value their 2018-19 pool money more highly than this period's since most of their signings are already done so we can't see this as an accurate gauge for the value of IFA money going forward. But I sure would like to see the Cubs acquire some once July 2nd rolls around. With their ability to sign guys capped at $300,000 this period, I doubt it makes much sense to acquire 2017-18 pool money unless there's one of the Braves guys they like who will sign for $500,000. MLB said the first $200,000 of contracts for the newly released Braves prospects won't count against the pool allotment. I assume that means the Cubs could sign one of those guys for up to $500,000 using this year's IFA money. Is that right?

I like Juan NIcasio and Jake McGee has the 2 main FA adds to the bullpen. Each should be able to be signed for a reasonable AAV (something less than 10 million a year). That would give the Cubs a solid corps of relievers. Nicasio McGee Strop Edwards Wilson Montgomery Then you can look at a group of guys that you can get on cheaper 1-year deals like Luke Gregerson, Zach Duke, Tommy Hunter, Huston Street and outside the box guys like Jay Jackson. Finally let guys like Eddie Butler, Dillon Maples, Rob Zastryzny and the guys the Cubs picked up on waivers battle it out for the 8th spot (assuming Maddon goes that route again). I like the ideas some have put forth in the trade market, too. I think there are a lot of acceptable combinations from who's available that I'd be happy with. I believe in Nicasio's and McGee's stuff and the likelihood they sign for reasonable amounts.

The Cubs can choose to use their 2018-19 allotment on any of these players. They don't have to be limited to the $300k in 2016-17. Cool! I read it as they can dip into their 2018-19 pool money but that their restrictions would still be in place until July 2nd. But you're saying that with these specific players released from the Braves, their current restrictions don't apply, is that accurate?

Wow. This off-season just got a lot more interesting. With the deadlines to sign before January 15th in order to get a signing bonus on top of what the Braves gave you, it looks like we won't have to wait too long before we find out if the Cubs get any of these guys. I wonder if having only the money beyond the first $200,000 counting against the team's IFA bonus pool means the Cubs (who are still restricted to spending $300,000 or less on any given player until July 2nd) can spend up to $500,000 on these guys?

By "punt", I mean stay away from any multi-year contracts over $17-18 million and avoiding contracts longer than 2 years in general. Clearly, they'll need to sign free agents specifically in the bullpen and very likely a starter or two. But should the Cubs fill the closer's role on a one-year deal at a higher AAV or even risk going with Edwards to start the season and see how he does? Should they seek to buy one or two FA starters but more for competition at the 5th spot and trade a major league hitter for a young-ish, controllable starter or go after bringing back Arrieta or signing Darvish? With this roster clearly still in the heart of a championship window, is it worth risking going into the season with an improved but more patchwork bullpen without a clear cut, dominant closer? Should they instead have a bullpen populated by Edwards, Strop, Wilson and some FAs like Bryan Shaw, Pat Neshak and/or Juan Nicasio in order to go full out in 2018's off season and sign Andrew Miller or Craig Kimbrel? Should the Cubs trade Kyle Schwarber for a mid-20s starter this year with the idea of signing Bryce Harper to play the OF in 2019 or sign Machado to play 3rd and move Bryant to LF? Or should they hang onto his rare left-handed power bat for the years to come and trade Happ for pitching instead leaving less positional flexibility to add an OFer like Harper (or the Machado signing with Bryant filling left)? In short, it could be seen as burning a year in the middle of a championship window if they roll the dice this season (and fail) while holding out for 2 (or more) really big FAs from the 2019 class. Your thoughts?

Last I heard, Stinnett was throwing 90-91. Any reports on his stuff tonight?

I propose a new W flag just for today to honor the Cubs beating the Nationals... #FlyTheCurlyW

It's would be bad, really bad, but different. I was at the Bartman game and at the Cubby Bear for game 7 in 2003 (I couldn't bring myself to plunk down another $500 after the gut punch the night before,) Being up 3-1 in the series with Prior and Wood going in games 6 and 7, it was basically a foregone conclusion which is saying A LOT for a Cubs fan. And then being 5 outs away with a 3 run lead, it was even more so. Last night, if it were the Cubs (and last year hadn't happened) it would've been like they blew it. They deserved to lose. They gave the game away. So many bad performances, errors, decisions, etc. A big disappointment for sure, but not a gut punch. One of the postgame anchors compared the Nats fans experience to Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown...again. I disagree. Last night, Lucy kept the ball there and Charlie Brown just whiffed.

Pena has been traded to the Angels for cash or a PTBNL.

A valid order is basically impossible to justify, but some combo of: Albertos Alzolay Ademan Caratini Lange Little De La Cruz Rucker Hatch Amaya Maples Tseng Zagunis Bote DJ Wilson Abbott Z. Short Burks Mills Underwood Clifton Assad Galindo Estrada Velazquez Hudson Moreno K. Thompson Vosler Steele Marquez Sierra Camargo Mekkes C. Brooks Romero ...would be in my top 30 (with some of those names not making the list).