CubsWin

And Wilson (assuming he's back to being Wilson).

I like how Theo and Jed knew going in and referred to 2017 as "somewhat of a bridge year" as their rotation and pitching depth wasn't quite where they wanted it to be and their young hitters were still gaining MLB experience. And yet they still made their 3rd consecutive NLCS. Welp, 2018 ain't gonna be no bridge year.

Their rotation depth on July 13th was: Montgomery Butler Zastryzny Frankoff Buchanan (Mills was on the DL and Tseng had only one start in AAA at that time) Now it's: Montgomery Tseng Butler (for now) Mills Alzolay L. Farrell Smyly (eventually) I'd say they've improved themselves there, too...

Before the Cubs acquired Quintana on July 13th, they're rotation was comprised of: Arrieta Lester Hendricks Lackey E. Butler Now it's made up of: Darvish Quintana Hendricks Lester Chatwood I'd say they've improved themselves...

We can add Cuban C Alexander Guerra to the list of signees with known bonuses. He got the max the Cubs were allowed to spend ($300,000). For reference, here's AZ Phil's list of 2018 IFAs: LAST UPDATED 3-24-2018 * throws or bats left # bats both NOTE: Player's listed age is his age when he signed. PITCHERS: 17 Willy Cabrera (age 17) - DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - 6'3 210 - SIGNED JULY 2017 * Alejandro Carrillo (age 17) - MEXICO - 5'10 168 - SIGNED JULY 2017 Luis Devers (age 17) - DOMINICAN REPBLIC - 6'3 178 - SIGNED JULY 2017 Moises Diaz (age 16) - DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - 6'0 195 - SIGNED DECEMBER 2017 Manuel Espinoza (age 16) - MEXICO - 6'0 175 - SIGNED JULY 2017 Kelvin Feliz (age 16) - DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - 6'1 164 - SIGNED JULY 2017 Francisco Fermin (age 19) - DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - 6'4 175 - SIGNED DECEMBER 2017 * Misael Garcia (age 16) - DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - 6'2 196 - SIGNED JULY 2017 * Jesus Gomez (age 18) - SIGNED MARCH 2018 Andy Hernandez (age 18) - SIGNED MARCH 2018 * Johan Lopez (age 19) - DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - 6'6 200 - SIGNED FEBRUARY 2018 Raidel Orta (age 21) - CUBA - 5'9 180 - SIGNED FEBRUARY 2018 Luis Ramos (age 19) - DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - 6'5 205 - SIGNED DECEMBER 2017 Jorge Remon (age 16) - PANAMA - 6'2 160 - SIGNED JULY 2017 * Luis Rodriguez (age 17) - MEXICO - 6'1 190 - SIGNED JULY 2017 Florencio Serrano Hr (age 17) - MEXICO - 6'0 175 - SIGNED JULY 2017 * Saul Vazquez (age 17) - MEXICO - 6'1 178 - SIGNED JULY 2017 CATCHERS: 3 Alexander Guerra (age 20) - CUBA - 5'11 240 - SIGNED SEPTEMBER 2017 Miguel Fabrizio (age 16) - VENEZUELA - 5'11 178 - SIGNED AUGUST 2017 Brayan Mancilla (age 18) - VENEZUELA - 5'11 185 - SIGNED DECEMBER 2017 INFIELDERS: 7 # Reivaj Garcia (age 16) - MEXICO - 5'11 175 - SIGNED AUGUST 2017 Nestor Heredia (age 16) - VENEZUELA - 6'1 179 - SIGNED OCTOBER 2017 Widimer Joaquin (age 16) - DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - 6'2 180 - SIGNED JULY 2017 Juan Mora (age 18) - SIGNED MARCH 2018 Fabian Pertuz (age 16 ) - COLOMBIA - 6'0 156 - SIGNED AUGUST 2017 Luis Verdugo (age 16) - MEXICO - 6'0 172 - SIGNED JULY 2017 * Orlando Zapata (age 18) - VENEZUELA - 5'11 160 - SIGNED OCTOBER 2017 OUTFIELDERS: 9 # Josue Fernandez (age 16) - DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - 6'3 180 - SIGNED FEBRUARY 2018 Kelvin Hidalgo (age 16) - DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - 6'3 190 - SIGNED SEPTEMBER 2017 * Kevin Miranda (age 17) - VENEZUELA - 5'11 168 - SIGNED AUGUST 2017 - Kevin Moreno (age 17) - CUBA - 6'2 180- SIGNED FEBRUARY 2018 Carlos Morfa (age 16) - DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - 6'2 190 - SIGNED AUGUST 2017 * Alexander Ovalles (age 16) - DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - 6'0 190 - SIGNED JULY 2017 * Brailin Pena (age 16) - DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - 5'11 160 - SIGNED JULY 2017 Jonathan Rodriguez (age 16) - DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - 6'2 190 - SIGNED JULY 2017 * Marco Valenzuela (age 17) - MEXICO - 6'1 170 - SIGNED JULY 2017 All of the IFA were "Signed for Future Service" (meaning they signed 2018 contracts). Pertuz and Verdugo attended AZ Instructs in Mesa last month. The others will be making their pro debut in 2018.

If that is indeed the sticking point as some reports suggest, I wholeheartedly agree. The only reason I can see for Theo/Jed still holding firm is if they have solid intel that Darvish doesn't really have a significantly better offer that would cause him to not eventually cave in and sign a 4-year deal.

So going with your 2/12 estimate, that would be $6 million against the cap this year. We have no way of knowing for sure what the Cubs feel they can safely spend going into the season, but if spending that 6 mill would only allow the Cubs to offer a max of $24 million per for Darvish and he won't sign for that AAV, would you still want Avila?

Cubs signed 31-year-old 1B Efren Navarro to minor league deal to fill their AAA 1B slot. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=navarr001efr

This got me thinking, though. Which Cubs prospects have the ceiling to become top 50 prospects in the next 2, maybe 3 years. I know that time frame is a bit far out and opens up the list to a lot more names, but so many of the Cubs better prospects are at the lower levels right now. I have a lot of faith (perhaps too much) in the Cubs developmental staff and philosophy (as well as their scouts) so my list is influenced by their presence. I'd be really interested to hear who you think has that type of ceiling. For me, it includes (not necessarily in order of likelihood): Ademan Albertos Amaya Lange Velazquez Little De La Cruz Marquez Galindo Wilson and from the totally guessing section: Danis Correa Florencio Serrano Luis Verdugo Fernando Kelli Who would you add? Who do you think I'm wrong to include? Who do you think has a chance, the ceiling to become a top 50 prospect?

Ademan and Alzolay for jumps inside top 50. Then Albertos, Lange and Little for possible top 100 on top of guys who emerge during the year/one of the 3 top 90 or so picks we have. If Adbert pitches well enough to jump into the top 50, he'll probably have lost his prospect eligibility by the end of the season. Yeah, that was my thought, too.

It's possible. Who are you seeing making the jump into the top 50 by next winter? For me, Ademan and Albertos have the best chances right now. As currently perceived, there are only a handful of guys with that kind of ceiling in the organization. That could change going forward, of course.

Which Friday? January 26th, February 2nd or June 1st?

Nice!. Been waiting on this. Yanks, D-Backs, Astros and I think a few others have two. The more the merrier, I say.

It’s been removed. What did it say? On why Ohtani didn't sign with the Cubs: Theo said they wished him well and asked why he didn't sign with the Cubs, and Ohtani in broken, newly learned English replied "Cant. Go. With. Dempster". After Jed announced the birth of his 3rd child this off season, Ryan asked so what's next (meaning for the Cubs roster), Jed misunderstood and answered, "a vasectomy". Theo then piped in that Ryan could do it right there on the stage and followed that up with, "Normally, I'm in charge of cutting Jed's balls off but he'd let Ryan do it this time."

Happ for Teheran would be a terrible trade. Of course, that's not remotely what I was suggesting...

Teheran hasn't lost any velocity. Per Fangraphs: 2014 - Fastball 92.3, Slider 82.1, Curve 74.0 2017 - Fastball 92.0, Slider 83.1, Curve 73.8 I respect that. Fans are divided on him and rightfully so. But more importantly, the Braves are entertaining offers for him?! I hadn't heard that. That's welcome news. From my point of view, anyway... Then again, the real get here would be one of their better pitching prospects.

I'd rather overpay for Cobb or Lynn (let's just take Yu and Jake out of the equation) or even bargain shop and bring in 2-3 of guys like Hellickson, Bucholz, Feldman, Garcia, Vargas, Tillman, etc. to compete for the last rotation spot than give up that package for Teheran. I get that line of thinking. For me the appeal is getting a top notch pitching prospect PLUS a guy like Teheran. If Teheran reverts to his 3 WAR years (just one year removed), you've won the deal. If he doesn't, he's a consistent, non-terrible innings eater with no injury history in his age 27-29 years at the back end of your rotation at an affordable price. And in my eyes, the Cubs greatest need moving forward is a top 50 type pitching prospect that's a year or two away from the majors. That piece could/would enable them to add a piece like Harper and possibly get back under the luxury tax cap to reset it in the near future.

I really like Foltynewicz but am meh on Teheran. A lot of his peripherals took a step back this year and his FIP was nearly 5. He's an interesting buy-low candidate for sure but I also don't think Atlanta would trade him for a small return and I'm not sure they would do a Marlins and sweeten the deal with a prospect. I'm alright if you think it's a bad idea (Teheran is a guy many people are divided on), and maybe I'm higher on Happ than you are, but how is Happ (a 23-year-old switch-hitter with some positional flexibility and 6 years of control left who slugged over .500 and posted a 1.8 fWAR in just 115 games in his rookie season, Caratini who the Braves having a glaring need for, Ademan (arguably the Cubs best prospect) plus others a "small return" for a buy low candidate?

There are absolutely no rumors involving Julio Teheran so I don't have any idea of Atlanta's willingness to move him (although no rumors have never been an indication one way or another for this stealthy front office), but I'd love to get him. He's coming off a down year (which isn't necessarily a bad thing) but he's one of the most reliable pitchers when it comes to providing innings, has 3 years left on his contract (his age 27-29 seasons) and the Braves match up well as trade partners considering their excess depth of pitching and the Cubs excess depth of hitting. While his performance has fluctuated a bit in his pre-prime years, he had a 3.2 fWAR in his age 23 and 25 seasons. As with all trade discussions, it's completely dependent upon the asking price (which is impossible to gauge at this point), but the Braves just added to pitchers (Scott Kazmir and Brandon McCarthy) to their roster. Kazmir might not pitch at all if his hip isn't healthy and if he does he may come out of the bullpen. McCarthy is notoriously injury prone but if he is healthy he will be in their rotation. More importantly, the Braves already have 6 young starters who started for them last season. Teheran, Foltynewicz, Sean Newcomb, Lucas Sims, Luis Gohara and Max Fried. Of those, Teheran is the oldest and by far the most expensive with $31 million left on his contract. On top of their depth of young pitching at the major league level, the Braves have incredible depth in the minors as well. Kolby Allard, Kyle Wright, Mike Soroka, Ian Anderson and Joey Wentz would all instantly be the Cubs top pitching prospect by far. Beyond those, Kyle Muller, Touki Toussaint and to a lesser extent Patrick Weigel, Bryce Wilson and lefty reliever AJ Minter would makes nice additions if possible. The point is they have tremendous depth and might be more willing than other teams to part with young pitching as a result. They could certainly use a player like Ian Happ and a C like Victor Caratini. They have two catchers in their 30s under contract for one more season and the only C prospect of note they have is Drew Jackson who is below average behind the plate and no lock to hit at the major league level. He'll start this year in AA. They also lost their top IFA signings and are barred from signing any significant ones for the next few years. So some of the Cubs lower level players like Aramis Ademan might have more value to them than most other teams. If a package of Happ, Caratini, Ademan (plus?) can bring back Teheran, one of their starting pitching prospects and AJ Minter, I'm down.

I can get that sentiment for sure. But, I'd guess his next 2 years are in the same vicinity of production as Jake or Yu, at a fraction of the money and without the back end of those deals we're likely going to hate. I too am leery of Cole's production over the next two seasons, but he definitely has upside. Honestly, he could be anywhere from a #1 to a #4. It's the second part of what you wrote that is most intriguing to me. Lower AAV and no backend to a deal that's likely to bite you. At the very least, Cole is an above average starter who can give you around 200 innings. At most, he's a 5 WAR top of the rotation guy. There's a lot of variance there, but if the price is close to what this website heard it is... I'd jump on that in a second. With the Cubs history of drafting and developing pitchers being what it has been, the wisdom of the general philosophy of waiting to acquire pitching and the current championship window of the Cubs, how could you not make that deal? I have no idea if this website (Pirates Breakdown) is anything other than just a fan site, but I'd suspect this deal would be done already if that rumor was close to true.

Nightengale brought up 4/110 is what we're evidently OK with on Jake. Again, its Nightengale, so whatever..... I am definitely not ok with 4/110 for Jake. It's certainly not my first choice nor would I feel good about a signing like that (more a fair but risky signing feeling), but it would make the Cubs strong World Series contenders for the next two years at least. Arrieta, Quintana, Hendricks, Lester and Chatwood. That's a pretty darn good rotation. That said, my first choice is a trade, but the waters are pretty murky on that front.

Would the C and OF be veteran AAA depth then? I think they'd go outside the org. And TT is right, its almost a certainty they add a vet C. But, it could be one of the guys I mentioned. Maybe they'd take an NRI(confident Geo would). Plus, its possible they could deal for those pieces. Definitely possible on the OF, as I'd guess there's some borderline decent guy you could acquire that's still pre arb, that's not too costly. I meant would the guys being acquired be AAA depth because you just listed 12 position players and (outside of a CF defensive specialist) I don't see a need for another OFer. And yes, I'd go with a vet C that's an above average game caller and receiver and have Caratini start in AAA,

I'm okay holding on to Caratini but I'm not sure I want him being the primary back up to Contreras right now. I want a veteran game caller with solid receiving skills during a championship run. I don't care about the bat as much in this line up. Caratini's best role for this season is to be Contreras injury insurance in AAA because he's got options left and most, if not all, of the solid veteran options won't. Let him work on his receiving and game calling in Iowa and bring him up if one of Contreras or the vet back up goes on the DL. I'm much more comfortable having say Rivera and Caratini split time starting games in case Contreras goes down than Caratini and some NRI dude like Ali Solis or a veteran they scramble to acquire in season.

Would the C and OF be veteran AAA depth then?

Montgomery and Almora alone is a real healthy offer for Machado. Maybe the Orioles don't agree, and that's likely a big reason why this isn't plan A as opposed to Darvish, but one year of Machado at 15 million is not going to be worth it if he commands an absurd ransom. With the rumors as persistent as they are, I have to assume that the Orioles are at least somewhat realistic, or maybe they're more interested in an expanded deal with Gausman that serves as one stop shopping and would in fact justify 3 or more MLB caliber assets. Gotcha. We're going on Monty and Almora being acceptable to Baltimore. Understood. Who knows what that front office is thinking. We shall soon find out I suspect...