CubsWin

The latest on possible minor league rotations from AZ Phil:

How could you forget the immortal Tony Campana lol? http://www4.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Tony+Campana+Philadelphia+Phillies+v+Chicago+Ft8ZJUWwC9Wl.jpg How could I have forgotten the scrappy fan favorite!

Heck, if you want to go a few years further back, since Paredes and Cease are so far away, we could include prospects (at the time of their trade) LeMahieu and Godley and have a pretty decent major league line up. 2B - LeMahieu (29) SS - Torres (21) LF - Jimenez (21) RF - Soler (26) 3B - Candelario (24) C - Caratini (24) 1B - Vogelbach (25) CF - McKinney (23) SP - Godley (27) That team may not be going to the playoffs, but they'd win some games and have a bright future. The weakest link is McKinney in CF. I'm sure I'm forgetting people. Have the Cubs traded away a decent CF prospect?

It's debatable whether or not the Cubs will trade away Caratini. On one hand, the Cubs actually have a roster spot waiting for him. A young, switch-hitting catcher with a solid bat and decent defense is valuable commodity. On the other hand, the Cubs are in win now mode, and Caratini is the most major league ready prospect they have. If he hits in AAA like he did last season, come the trade deadline, he could be in demand, and if the Cubs have needs to fill, well, finding a decent back-up catcher isn't the hardest thing to do. That said, and with tongue firmly planted in cheek, here's the most compelling reason why Caratini will likely be dealt. You can make a pretty decent prospect team out the Cubs players traded away in the last two years, but their starting line up is one position short. A catcher. 1B - Dan Voglebach (25) hitting .391/.509/.848/1.357 this spring, .290/.388/.455/.844 in AAA last year. 2B - Isaac Paredes (19) hit .252/.338/.387/.725 as an 18-year-old in A ball last year. SS - Gleyber Torres (21) hit .287/.383/.480/.863 as a 20-year-old in AAA last year. 3B - Jeimer Candelario (24) hitting .273/.373/.591/.963 this spring, .330/.406/.468/.874 with the Tigers last year. OF - Eloy Jimenez (21) hitting .571/.667/1.714/2.381, .312/.379/.568/.947 as a 20 year old in High-A/AA last year. OF - Jorge Soler (26) OPSing .993 this spring, .267/.388/.564/.952 in AAA last year. OF - Billy McKinney (23) OPSing .929 this spring, .306/.336/.541/.877 in AAA last year. P - Dylan Cease (22) 2-0, 0.00 ERA, .143 AVG, 9 Ks in 6.1 IP this spring, 3.28 ERA, .221 AVG, 126 Ks in 93.1 IP in A ball as a 21-year-old last year. That's not bad. Problem is, Cease doesn't have anyone to throw to. Clearly this means Caratini will have to go.

Yeah, I don't remember the Cubs being linked to Vlad Jr. Same here. I don't remember the Cubs having interest in Vlad Jr. either. I wished they did though. Really? I remember it so distinctly. I was even upset when I learned the Jays were now the favorites. Can't remember how I got that idea, though.

I'm almost 100% certain that this is not true. The Cubs can option them freely, but, if the Cubs remove them from the 40-man roster and attempt to send them to the minor leagues "outright", then they can elect free agency. If this comes to pass, they will have proven themselves not good enough to worry about. You are correct, sir. If outrighted, they can elect free agency not just if they're sent down. Thank you.

Yep, he looks healthy and assuming no setbacks with the blister should be on the opening day roster. I like Butler to break with the team. He pitched really well for the first 3 innings, then fell apart in the 4th. I'd like to see what he can do out of the pen. Of the guys with options left, Justin Hancock has impressed this spring. Rosario and Baldanado (who I didn't mention in my previous post but am pretty sure has at least one option year left) have each had good outings. Mazzoni has some mid-90s velocity. None of those guys are sure things to perform if they break with the team, but they've got some stuff to work with.

Dario Alvarez has one option year left and Shae Simmons has two, but they also have the right to elect free agency if sent down. Cory Mazzoni, Alec Mills, Luke Farrell and Randy Rosario each have two option years left without the right to elect for free agency. Justin Hancock and Kyle Ryan have options left as well, but I don't know how many. Anthony Bass and Michael Roth (as well as Chris Gimenez) have no options to work with. So it appears the Cubs have plenty of guys they could call up without having to risk losing them via waivers if/when they're sent back down.

Adrian Morejon at 61 is way more of a coulda been a Cubs prospect, since he was linked to them initially. As was Vlad Jr. :banghead: Yeah, I have no idea if the Cubs liked Pearson enough to where he was even considered by them, but he could've been had at 27 without a bidding war...

Sickels came out with his top 175 list: https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018/3/15/17121536/top-175-mlb-prospects-for-2018 Former Cubs prospects: 7. Gleyber Torres 9. Eloy Jimenez 46. Dylan Cease 139. Isaac Paredes Cubs prospects: 134. Adbert Alzolay 145. Aramis Ademan 149. Alex Lange 156. Jose Albertos 160. Victor Caratini Coulda been Cubs prospects: 101. Nate Pearson

I wondered about both points. The trades we saw for Ohtani money were done after most teams were done signing guys. I wonder if that made it easier to acquire and thus those trades might not be representative of the market value at the beginning of the signing period? I know the Braves are limited to signing guys to contracts of no higher than $10,000 in 2019-20 and that their allotment was cut in half in 2020-21. I couldn't find anything on this coming season's penalty beyond the fact that they previously went over the limit and were under the same restrictions the Cubs were the last two years. Do you (or anyone)know how they're specifically restricted this signing period? I also read that since the Braves can't sign anyone for over $10,000 next period (2019-20), that they basically had their allotment brought down to zero and won't have any bonus money to trade away that year. (Under the current rules, signings under $10,000 don't count towards the total allotment and can be unlimited in number). Is any of that accurate?

Does anyone have any insight on how the new IFA bonus rules will likely affect the ability to trade for other team's IFA money? -Are teams who previously didn't spend a lot on IFAs now more likely to do so? -With the new hard cap, it seems IFA bonus money becomes all the more valuable. Any idea what type of player/prospect would have to be given up in order to get some? -Are there any articles out there on this subject? I did a google search but didn't find any... Here's a recap of the new rules: Hard spending cap varies by team (All teams start with a $4.75 million cap, but clubs receiving first/second round sandwich “competitive balance” pick will receive an additional $500,000, and clubs receiving 2nd/3rd round sandwich “competitive balance” pick receive an additional $1 million). Cap dollars tradeable (once signing period opens July 2) Teams allowed to acquire up to 75 percent* of their cap in additional funds (I.E. a $4.75 million club would be able to acquire an additional $3.56 million for a total of $8.31 million) *This amount will be reduced to 60 percent starting in 2019–2020 period.

Gallardo's 6'1", 187 lbs according to Badler.

Here's the full game video of Gallardo: [bbvideo=560,315] [/bbvideo]

The Cubs are linked to Dominican CF Jose Lopez. 5’10”, athletic, plus speed, strong arm and an above average tools with an unorthodox swing. He’s expected to get a bonus “north of $1 million.” What specifically is unorthodox about it, or did they even mention it? A 7 figure deal with this guy really takes a bit out of the available money. You could call it a hitch, but he sort of extra loads his bat by raising his hands as the pitch is coming in. It's likely a timing mechanism for him, but as he faces higher velocities, it could cause him to be late. If he needs to make an adjustment, it doesn't seem like an overly difficult one to make. [bbvideo=560,315] [/bbvideo]

So mlb.com had the Cubs picking 24th, 63rd, 76th (comp pick for Davis) and 98th in the top 3 rounds. With the Arrieta signing, does that become 24th, 63rd, 76th, 77th and 99th?

Probably just spreading out catchers because the South Bend group has so many, but it's moderately interesting to note that Henderson Perez ($1.25 million bonus in 2016) is listed amongst the Myrtle Beach catchers while Miguel Amaya is a level below him with the South Bend group. Amaya ($1 million bonus in the same year) was at Eugene while Perez was in the DSL last season. It could be an acknowledgment that Cubs brass thinks Henderson improved a lot last season (and perhaps over the winter) or it could be random and basically meaningless.

Nice! Thanks, CR.

Don't get me wrong, this system where teams are having to scout younger and younger players to get handshake deals on kids that could be top prospects is weird and unfortunate, but where did the specific number of 12 years old come from? The article only went to 13 (not that that's any better) and math suggests that if they're looking for kids who will be eligible 2 years from now, they couldn't be any younger than 13 now. I'm truly asking, how did 12 come into this conversation? Raisin mentioned how icky it feels scouting 12-year old kids, and I've heard or read in other articles that some teams start scouting at that age. They come to agreements probably when they are 13 or 14, but they start scouting them way in advance of their signing year. I mean it feels wrong either way like you said. And foolish like you said. It's got to be incredibly difficult to project a 12-year-old accurately. I mean, I guess if things take a turn for the worse with that PRE-TEEN (!!) the team he's committed to could always back out or drop their bonus offer, but still...

More from AZ Phil on Tuesday's minor league live BP. The big news for me is Phil's report on Little change-up being "plus". According to a different but still recent report (I forget who wrote it), the reason why Little struggled so much in his debut at Eugene last year was that the Cubs thought his CU was behind his other pitches and asked him to work on it in games. If both reports are accurate, Little seems to have taken ground in improving his CU and has added another potentially "plus" pitch to his arsenal.

Badler had basically the same article a year ago. The thought of scouting 12-year olds feels icky. How the hell do you scout a 12 year old prospect? That's insane. You can't be that successful at figuring out which prospects will pan out and develop at that age. Obviously, it looks bad and feels wrong, but it also feels stupid and foolish at the same time. Don't get me wrong, this system where teams are having to scout younger and younger players to get handshake deals on kids that could be top prospects is weird and unfortunate, but where did the specific number of 12 years old come from? The article only went to 13 (not that that's any better) and math suggests that if they're looking for kids who will be eligible 2 years from now, they couldn't be any younger than 13 now. I'm truly asking, how did 12 come into this conversation?

Damn, that's a sharp, late breaking curve ball/slider. Almost Darvish-esque.

Oh, it was the Calzadilla guy who hadn't been linked yet. Thanks for catching that!

Maybe is just a trick of the camera shooting thru the backstop mesh, but Castillo seemed to have impressive action on his fastball thrown to the outside of the plate and it tailing back over the heart of it. Nice. And for as much effort is present in his delivery, he finishes very balanced and under control. I realize the Cubs can't sign them all, but he looks impressive. Not being publicly linked to anyone yet makes him all the more intriguing...

I’ve wondered this same thing. I like the upside of Chatwood over Cobb though, especially with him maybe, likely not having his best pitch. Plus with Darvish now solidifying the top end of the rotation give me the guy with the highest upside at the back end of the rotation who still should have an okay floor. Chatwood did have similar offers to ours, apparently, so I think the market valued him about what we got him at. Can also be glad Cobb turned down our 3/45 offer or whatever early on and wanted 20 aav that led us to being able to wait out the market and get Darvish. That would’ve been a disaster getting both those guys locked up early (albeit at good value deals) then missing out on the market dropping to be able to get Darvish. Yeah, we may have possibly missed on Cobb, at this stage. But, I guess getting Chatwood early, got us to evaluate the entire market and allowed for Yu to fall into our laps. At the beginning of the off season, I truly thought we'd be trading Happ or Addy, to get our TOR starter, and signing Cobb to be our back end guy. I'll gladly take Yu, Chatwood, and not touching our position player core, over the other option. Can't believe we've not made a single trade. And got Yu, Chatwood, Smyly, Morrow, Cishek, and kept Duensing in FA. I wanted Chatwood over Cobb regardless of price. I could easily be wrong, but I believe there's a good chance he'll outperform Cobb over the next 3 seasons. Plus, I'll take the 28-30 years of a pitcher over the 30-33 years any day. And when it comes to pitchers, the fewer years under contract, the better. I agree that signing a good 5th starter early set up Theo & Jed to allow the market to come to them. It couldn't have worked out any better than Darvish agreeing to 21 million AAV. I also thought they'd go the trade route for their TOR starter, but I'm glad they didn't have to. The depth on this roster is ridiculous. This is the deepest rotation the Cubs have had under Theo by far. Chatwood >> Anderson/Butler. Monty still on board. IMO, Tseng & Mills are better than any 7th/8th starter in the last 5 years and Zastryzny isn't a bad 9th. The bullpen is also the deepest it's been. 1-7 are set with a healthy ST battle set up for the 8th spot between Grimm, Butler, Maples and Alvarez. Assuming one of Grimm or Butler gets the last spot (since neither have options left), having Maples continuing to refine his command in AAA is ideal. He's clearly the best first call up pen arm the Cubs have had under Theo. By mid-season, Alzolay and Smyly could be in the that mix as well. And do we even need to talk about the depth of the position players? Do you remember the 2015 bench? Jonathan Herrera (played in the Mexican League last year), Chris Denorfia (AAA), Jorge Soler (AAA). This year, the Cubs 3 bench players (not counting the back up C) are Zobrist, Happ/Almora and La Stella. And if Gimenez makes the team, they'll have Caratini waiting in the wings in AAA. Come on, man...