CubsWin

Hendry is trying to build a core of a team, not an all-star team. If Giles was closer to 30 yrs old, that'd be one thing, but he is 35 yrs old. Besides Hendry won't offer anything more then 2 yrs, and Giles won't sign for anything less then 4 yrs. So I doubt Giles will have any interest in coming to Chicago. I disagree that Hendry won't offer anything over 2 years. That's absurd. He will easily offer 3 and maybe 4 to the right player. Is Giles the right player, now thats the question. I would say he is far from Hendry's first choice. But his top choices will have to be acquired via trade. If he is unable to obtain any of his top choices, then offering Giles and/or Damon 3-year contracts would be the smart thing to do in my book. Both of them are better than Burnitz. Damon can play CF and lead-off, if Corey doesn't improve. If Giles is signed to replace Burnitz, then Lawton should also be offered a contract given his ability to lead-off better than anybody else the Cubs have.

The argument that Dempster has sweaty palms and that is what caused his wildness in Tuesday night's game falls apart when you ask, why didn't the same wildness show up in all of the other really hot game conditions the Cubs have played in lately. It was much hotter in St. Louis on July 23rd and Demp didn't walk 4 consecutive batters in that game. And, if it were true that he couldn't keep his hands dry due to persperation, then all he would have to do is learn to throw the spitter. Gaylord Perry would have killed to sweat like Dempster. :wink:

I think Hendry did his job. He provided JoBo in '04 and Dempster in '05. JoBo got injured and Dempster was mistakenly placed in the rotation. True, once JoBo went down, Hendry was unable to bring in another closer, but its not like they grow on trees. If a team has an effective closer, why would they trade him? I think that, if anything, the relative lack of return on these two moves(Rem and Hawkins) suggests that paying top dollar for "proven" bullpen guys is the wrong way to go about things. It seems that in the grand scheme of things, GM's tend to be "late" in acquiring relievers. For example, there are probably a lot of people who think that Guillermo Mota is among the best non-closer relievers in baseball, when the truth is that he is very far into the downside of his career. He was however, very useful when he was cheap. This has happened with Remlinger and Hawkins. Hendry just through cash at the bullpen and acquired the two guys who were percieved as the best relievers available after '02 and '03 rather than looking for guys in the minors with good track records. As far as non-closing bullpen guys go, the pecking order is very fluid. In any given year, people haven't even heard of who the best relievers in baseball are until about August. The Angels of the past couple of years are a good example of how to piece together a bullpen. They didn't go get(and pay several million for) the Al Levines or the David Weathers of the world. Instead, they gave guys like Kevin Gregg, Brendan Donnelley, Scot Shields and K Rod opportunities. At this point, very soon, they'll probably let most if not all of them go(save K Rod). Some team like the Cubs will pay 9 mil over 3 years for Donnelley , et al and be disappointed while the Angels bring in another bunch of guys at the minimum who outperform the previous regime. If I'm Jim Hendry, this winter I ask Seattle what they want for George Sherrill,and the Yankees what they want for Colter Bean. That would be a start to a potentially effective bullpen at a low cost. If Tim Byrdak hadn't been called up by the Orioles and done well, I'd try to get him too. Just my two cents. And a very well thought out two cents at that. I couldn't agree more. And I think this year has been evidence that Hendry is thinking along the same lines. Dempster was a reclamation project. Remmy is a holdover from mistakes past, but everybody else is fits what you described. They haven't performed exceedingly well, but Novoa has got some stuff, Ohman can get out the lefties pretty well, Wuertz's slider is sick when its on. Hendry is trying to carry out the plan you just outlined. I would like him to try to pry Crain away from the Twins. He might cost some pretty good prospects, but he is young, cheap and a really good reliever who has already done it at the major league level. I also expect to see Van Buren join the bullpen in September and be one of many possible relievers that fit the young and cheap profile.

I think Hendry did his job. He provided JoBo in '04 and Dempster in '05. JoBo got injured and Dempster was mistakenly placed in the rotation. True, once JoBo went down, Hendry was unable to bring in another closer, but its not like they grow on trees. If a team has an effective closer, why would they trade him?

I can't remember if Hendry promised Hollandsworth more playing time or if that was Dusty or if what he was promised was an honest shot at earning the starting job in LF. Does anybody have a link to a quote or something better than my shotty memory? And I think Cedeno's call-ups were out of necessity. Who else on the roster was going to play SS if Neifi got injured? Would you have preferred Hendry to keep Enrique Wilson around? Granted, it was far from the ideal situation for Ronny's development, I'm sure we would all agree that the best thing for Ronny would have been to play everyday no matter where he was, but at least he got to "watch and learn from the veterans". :wink: Seriously, though, there has to be some benefit from being in the bigs as a 22-year-old. Maybe he'll be a bit more relaxed and able to perform at his highest level when/if he actually does see the field because he feels like he belongs there.

True, but only one of them is an above average lead-off hitter. :wink: I think the Cubs are counting on Corey returning to play CF next year. If Corey can mount a successful comeback, the Cubs will have "added" a solid bat with good pop and an above average defensive CFer. Lawton could be retained to lead-off and play one of the corner positions. Murton and others could be packaged to get someone better than Burnitz to play RF. However, there are options. The Cubs could sign Johnny Damon (if he'll accept a 3-year deal) to play CF and lead-off. He could move to a corner spot when Pie is ready. If they do, Patterson could then be packaged to obtain an all-star caliber power-hitting OFer, and Murton would be kept to play LF. Burnitz has been solid for the Cubs especially at his '05 price, but doesn't his option pay him 9 mill next year? If so, I'll pass. One of the many problems with the two scenarios above is what all-star caliber, power-hitting OFer could the Cubs acquire by trading either Patterson or Murton along with a bevy of other players? I'm not certain Austin Kearns will ever be that guy. Its possible but there are safer bets out there. Question is, can they be had for what the Cubs have to offer? Looks like its time to start looking for the next salary dump... I think Burnitz's option for next year is $7 million. That's still probably more than he'll be worth, but who else is there to play RF next year? Yeah, thats the question. Griffey? Giles? Will the Braves trade Andruw Jones? I think an outfield of Lawton, Jones and Patterson wouldn't be too bad given the power at the corner IF positions. But what in the world would it take to get Jones? Would the Phillies ever trade Bobby Abreu? Johnny Damon isn't really a power-hitting OFer, but his OPS this year is way better than Burnitz's. Those are some options, but who knows if any of them are realistic?

Yeah, its time to get Van Buren on the 40-man...

True, but only one of them is an above average lead-off hitter. :wink: I think the Cubs are counting on Corey returning to play CF next year. If Corey can mount a successful comeback, the Cubs will have "added" a solid bat with good pop and an above average defensive CFer. Lawton could be retained to lead-off and play one of the corner positions. Murton and others could be packaged to get someone better than Burnitz to play RF. However, there are options. The Cubs could sign Johnny Damon (if he'll accept a 3-year deal) to play CF and lead-off. He could move to a corner spot when Pie is ready. If they do, Patterson could then be packaged to obtain an all-star caliber power-hitting OFer, and Murton would be kept to play LF. Burnitz has been solid for the Cubs especially at his '05 price, but doesn't his option pay him 9 mill next year? If so, I'll pass. One of the many problems with the two scenarios above is what all-star caliber, power-hitting OFer could the Cubs acquire by trading either Patterson or Murton along with a bevy of other players? I'm not certain Austin Kearns will ever be that guy. Its possible but there are safer bets out there. Question is, can they be had for what the Cubs have to offer? Looks like its time to start looking for the next salary dump...

The Cubs have been showing a lot of heart lately by winning several games in their last at bat. If you haven't been shown that its because you haven't been paying attention. As far as your claim that "Championship caliber teams do not lay down like dogs and go 3-4 at against crap teams" all you have to do is look at the Boston Red Sox last season to see that yes, in fact, they do. From May 9-12, the Red Sox lost to KC and dropped 2 of 3 to Cleveland at home. They lost 2 of 3 to Baltimore (who last season were a crap team) in Fenway on July 21-22, and they lost 2 of 3 to the White Sox (who last year were also a crap team) in Fenway on August 13-15 in the heat of the pennant chase. How about the Florida Marlins of '03? The Marlins were swept by San Fransisco at home May 6-8. They lost 3 of 4 at home May 29-June 1 to Montreal and Cincinnati, not exactly the cream of the crop. They lost 2 of 3 at home to a crap team like the Cubs (who entered the series under .500) on July 18-20. So, yes, in fact it does happen. Oh, by the way, the crappy Arizona D-Backs are in 1st place. Look, I know I'm spinning things in an effort to defend the Cubs honor. But so too are you spinning them to smear the Cubs honor. The fact remains that all teams, championship caliber or otherwise, have ups and downs. I think the prudent thing to do is not make too much of either. The Cubs haven't been that impressive to date. But the season isn't over and there is plenty of evidence to suggest that the addition of Lawton and the return of Nomar can make quite a difference in this team's ability to win baseball games going forward. As far as having heart is concerned, you need look no further than their performance against the Cardinals in St. Louis last week and their subsequent late-inning heroics against the Giants and Arizona. They might not be playing their best ball right now, but no one can build a solid case showing that they aren't playing with a lot of heart.

I'm sorry I must have missed the "No pessimists allowed" memo. Who is saying you're not allowed here? You keep reading negativity into what I am writing. The quoted comment communicates that I think your opinions in this thread were some of the most pessimistic I've ever read on this board. It said nothing about whether you should be allowed to express them. That was your doing. Yes, that is exactly what I'm saying. I can only go by what I have seen out of Nomar, which isn't much. The fact that he has played in 65 games in one year, coupled with the fact he is getting older, would leave me to believe that he's not very dependable. Good, thank you for being honest. Thats all I'm saying. You are seeing only the negative about Nomar. You are not seeing that he has come back from injuries several times in the past and played hundreds of games before getting injured again. Is it accurate to say that Nomar is injury prone? Of course. Is it accurate to say that because he was recently injured that he will likely only be able to play a few games before getting injured again? No. There is no logic or statistical fact that shows that is his pattern. The stats show that he will play the majority of the games the rest of the season. Well, I'm not sure what point I proved for you. You choose to look at it positively and I don't. If that's your point, then my whole post proves that point. Wow, I refuse to believe that you can't read that paragraph and the rest of the post that it came from and figure out what I meant. You are obviously intelligent. Clearly, what I was saying was that the opinions you were expressing were based solely on the negative things that had happened to the Cubs this season and the examples I gave in my response were balanced, including both the successes and failures the Cubs have had this season. But I seriously doubt that I needed to spell that out for you. I think you just didn't want to give me the experience of having made a valid point. I think you chose to play dumb instead of admit that your opinions were based on mainly just the negative. And I don't know why you wouldn't want to admit that. There is no shame in being a pessimist. You are a Cubs fan, after all. You've earned the right. But it still doesn't change the fact that a pessimist's opinion is by definition ignoring the positive factors that exist as well. Sounds strangely like another personal comment...... No, I'm just saying, once again, that your arguments weren't balanced out with the positive side. You must think it is a bad thing to be a pessimist and that if someone accuses you of being one that it is some sort of personal attack. I don't think that. I think that Cubs fans have earned the right to be pessimists, if they so choose. And there is nothing wrong with making that choice. All I'm saying is that the opinions you expressed earlier in this thread were not balanced out by any of the positive data thats out there, thats all. I can't, I can just go by what I've seen. I haven't seen Nomar play a full year, so until he does I'll assume he won't, and I haven't seen Kerry pitch a full season since '03, so I'll assume he can't until I'm proven otherwise. There are two problems with what you said about Nomar. One is that he isn't going to be playing a full season this year. We already know that. No one is debating that. What you said was because he was recently injured that it is likely that he will only play a few games before getting injured again. Thats what we are debating. Also, do you only believe things that you have personally seen with your own eyes? You may not have seen him "play a full year" but he has several times as recently as 2003 and 2002. And no one is trying to make you believe that Kerry Wood is going to "pitch a full season" this year. Only that the real possibility exists that he can give the Cubs some help out of the bullpen for the remainder of the season. And, again, I'm not even asking you to change your opinion, only to acknowledge that the opinions you expressed early in this thread were based mainly on the negative. Sorry, I've been a Cubs fan for longer than 30 years and I'm not a pessimist, so that doesn't help explain your negativity in regards to the Cubs. Its not like having been a Cubs fan for the last 30 years makes someone a pessimist. Its a choice. But I have no problem with anyone making that choice. And, clearly, there are plenty of reasons to do so. I also see plenty of reasons not to do so, but thats just me.

Probably some combination of experience, talent and athleticism. He exclusively played left field in West Tenn, if I'm not mistaken. Generally, managers play their worst defensive OFer in left and their best in center, so...

surely Yes, Dusty will bat Lawton in the lead-off spot. If he doesn't, I will be eating lots of crow. And stop calling Rocket Sauce Shirley...

Yet another great analysis by Joe Sheehan. There are reasons to think that Lawton will help the Cubs over the last two months of the season after all... Good job, Jim Hendry. In this seller's market, you got a legit lead-off hitter (not very easy to find) for a back-up outfielder with some promise and managed to get the Pittsburgh Pirates to throw in some cash. Not bad. Not incredibly great, but not bad...

I wholeheartedly agree with you, however, I think you could say that about almost everyone on this board, so you're not saying much there. I don't think you grasped the point of my post, Larry Horse. The point wasn't that there aren't valid reasons to doubt the Cubs will get a "boost" from Nomar, Lawton, Wood and Williamson joining the squad. The point was that there are several good reasons to think that they will and you seem to be failing to see any of them. How many games Nomar has played since joining the Cubs isn't the point. How could it be when he is about to play some more of them? If what we were talking about was why the Cubs are a .500 team after the first 4 months of the season, then it would be a perfectly valid thing to bring up, but since we're talking about what the next two months are likely to bring and since the fact remains that Nomar is about to return to the line-up, the "stat that you can't ignore" has very little bearing on our discussion. If what you are saying is that he will simply re-injure himself and not play very much at all the rest of this year then and only then does your "stat that you can't ignore" come into play. But there are still so many other stats that you are ignoring that are in favor of the notion that he will play games this season that my point is already made. You have proven my point yet again. You see Fox and don't balance it out with Dempster. I see both. You see Wood being terrible and getting injured again and don't balance it out with that he can also be dominant. I see both. I'm not asking you to ignore anything. I think you are already ignoring enough. I'm just pointing out that you seem to ignore the positive possibilities that exist for how the next two months could go for the Cubs. I know that the "boost" may not materialize. But I also know that it may. Thats why they play the games. Yes, yes, we all know Dusty is an idiot, a fool, a buffoon and every other name you can come up with because he doesn't run the team as you would. And we also know that you knew way ahead of time that Murton would perform the way he has. This is how brilliant you are, even though after playing in his 6th game he was batting .250/.333/.333, you somehow knew he would get 4 singles in his next game to raise his numbers. And to anyone who says that this is 20/20 hindsight, I say phooey. But seriously, I agree with you. I want Murton to play and start more often than he has, too. What I don't do is assume that because I want it to be so means that it should be so. You forgot the word "only" in between the word "continue" and the word "seeing". And how can someone prove to you what has yet to happen? We are talking about the possible future of the Chicago Cubs over the next two months. How does proving anything come into play in a discussion about what the future might hold?

Alex Gonzalez - plays 3rd for the Devil Rays, so no he doesn't really play :lol: Francis Beltran - had elbow surgery so won't pitch this season Brendan Harris - AAA Justin Jones - High A Nomar Garciaparra - has played in 65 games since being acquired Matt Murton - has a hard time seeing the field despite great numbers Lee and ARam - great pickups, unfortunately there are 7 other positions, in which I would say RF, 2B, CF, LF and probably SS have no long range answers. Now if our current manager, who was hired by Hendry, had a brain in his head, he would have stuck Cedeno at SS, not started "Holly" so much due to the fact his career is coming to a close, stuck Murton in LF and play the rest of the year out, and the Cubs could have seen if they had 2 future starters. We're not talking about the dismantling of a dynasty here. CubinNY is correct. Lawton is an upgrade over Gerut, but does it really solve anything? There is really no trade Hendry could have made that would have put this team in line for a title, so it's just whistling in the wind. (Is that cliche correct?) Larry Horse, it appears you are only seeing the negative side of things. If all Nomar is to you is a guy who "has played 65 games since being acquired" (nevermind that the important thing is that he is about to add to that number), then I guess the Cubs offense won't improve much in your mind. If all Murton is to you is a guy who "has a hard time seeing the field" (nevermind that he has seen action in 16 of the 17 games since being called up and started 10 of those 17), then I guess the Cubs offense won't improve much in your mind. And, of course the trade for Lawton by itself isn't likely to "solve anything", but as has been said several times now, that isn't the only change that is happening. The Cubs bullpen is likely getting a boost as well. The Cubs offense should improve in the last two months if you believe in statistics. How much it will improve is going to be determined by the players on the field. Here is hoping that they do well. I choose to believe in them because the numbers I see tell me I should.

.380 OBP is above mediocre. Lawton gets on base (he even had a year with over .400 OBP), that will help a little. He's not great by any means, but may be the first legitimate leadoff hitter we have had since Lofton. Hairston was not a true leadoff hitter. So, he does change the dynamic a little bit. He doesn't put us over the top alone like a Manny or anything, but it's a good move for the team. Lawton is the Cubs best lead-off hitter since Lofton. Granted, he alone doesn't put the Cubs into the playoffs, but when you shore up the bullpen with Williamson and Wood, swap Neifi for Nomar and add a legitimate lead-off hitter, then maybe.... I still don't really understand why people think Wood is going to be a boost to this team. He's injury prone and will have to pitch with less rest out of the 'pen, not to mention he gets hit hard in his first inning of work. I just don't think he's going to help us out a whole lot. Well, it is certainly possible that he won't work out in the bullpen, but he is still a guy who can strike out a guy when he wants to and having that commodity in your bullpen is a valuable thing. Granted, he has to be healthy and on, but when he is, Wood's stuff is routinely ranked as the nastiest in the league. With less wear and tear being placed on his shoulder by pitching shorter stints, he could be a very valuable piece to the Cubs bullpen the last 2 months of the season. What will happen? Who knows, but thats why they play the games and why we watch them. :wink:

.380 OBP is above mediocre. Lawton gets on base (he even had a year with over .400 OBP), that will help a little. He's not great by any means, but may be the first legitimate leadoff hitter we have had since Lofton. Hairston was not a true leadoff hitter. So, he does change the dynamic a little bit. He doesn't put us over the top alone like a Manny or anything, but it's a good move for the team. Lawton is the Cubs best lead-off hitter since Lofton. Granted, he alone doesn't put the Cubs into the playoffs, but when you shore up the bullpen with Williamson and Wood, swap Neifi for Nomar and add a legitimate lead-off hitter, then maybe....

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlbhist/players/scouting?statsId=5511 Hopefully hes solved his balance problems Well, his numbers in the month of July and post-all-star this season suggest that he has.

What makes you expect that Lawton will be a Cub next season? Or Burnitz for that matter? I'm not as certain as you are. I don't know what to expect when it comes to those guys. I have to wait until the off-season and see what options are on the table. Dunn could be traded. Kearns could be traded. Patterson might continue to struggle in AAA and we'd have to see how he does in the AFL or winter ball if he agrees to go. Nomar might want a lot of cash, I doubt it, but its a possibility. If Cedeno continues to hit after he returns to AAA, he might be given a chance to be Nomar's back-up and they might let Neifi go. Dusty might not be in Chicago if the team fails to make the playoffs. Lots of factors are up in the air at this point.

You almost get the sense that if LA were to fire Tracy, and were to offer Baker the job, that Jim Hendry would gladly let him out of the final year, and would name Atlanta 3rd base coach Fredi Gonzalez the new skipper of the Cubs. I don't think there is any way Dusty Manages the Dodgers. 1. Depo is Billy Bean guy- The manager must be on the same page as the system. 2. LA is aware of Dusty's management "style" by virtue of the fact that he managed so many games against them over the years. Beat me to it. I can't see Depodesta hiring someone like Dusty.

For those that want to bring up CPatt to play CF, I agree that he is still in the Cubs plans but not until he gets straighten out in AAA and I haven't seen any evidence of that happening yet. As Hendry has said many times now, its going to take some time.

Bob Brenly during the 10th inning show assumed that Lawton would be playing CF, but I just can't see the Cubs making that choice. Burnitz seems the strongest defensive OFer the Cubs have regardless of speed, he has the most experience playing CF and has logged meaningful time there most recently. I think the choices come down to Burnitz or Hairston in CF. But I definitely agree that Lawton is leading off. My line-up against favorable right-handed starter match-ups would be: Lawton - LF Nomar - SS Lee - 1B Burnitz - CF Ramirez - 3B Walker - 2B Barrett - C Hollandsworth - RF Against all lefties and the favorable righty match-up I would have: Lawton - RF Nomar - SS Lee - 1B Ramirez - 3B Burnitz - CF Barrett - C Walker - 2B (with the occasional start from Hairston) Murton - LF You would still start Hollandsworth? I'd put him behind Murton and Hairston, and probably start JH Jr (with Murton in AA) because he's the best CF of that group (Burnitz included). I'd rather have Patterson back up here than that. Against the tough righties that Murton doesn't amtch-up well against, yes. Plus, I was only going with that because it seemed the prevailing notion was that Hairston was not the best CFer of that group. If he is, then sit Holla.

Bob Brenly during the 10th inning show assumed that Lawton would be playing CF, but I just can't see the Cubs making that choice. Burnitz seems the strongest defensive OFer the Cubs have regardless of speed, he has the most experience playing CF and has logged meaningful time there most recently. I think the choices come down to Burnitz or Hairston in CF. But I definitely agree that Lawton is leading off. My line-up against favorable right-handed starter match-ups would be: Lawton - LF Nomar - SS Lee - 1B Burnitz - CF Ramirez - 3B Walker - 2B Barrett - C Hollandsworth - RF Against all lefties and the favorable righty match-up I would have: Lawton - RF Nomar - SS Lee - 1B Ramirez - 3B Burnitz - CF Barrett - C Walker - 2B (with the occasional start from Hairston) Murton - LF

It appears that are two main possibilities for how Lawton could best be used on this Cubs team. One has Lawton playing a corner OF spot, likely RF with Murton/Hollandsworth in LF and Burnitz in CF and the other has Lawton playing LF with Hairston playing CF. I think this trade happened because Hairston hasn't been the spark at the top of the order that the Cubs were needing. Which means that Hendry got Lawton to lead-off regardless of what position he is playing in the outfield. If that is the case, then the choice comes down to starting Murton/Hollandsworth and Lawton splitting the corner OF duties with Burnitz in CF or starting Hairston in CF with Lawton in LF and leading off. So we should be comparing Hairston's offensive numbers with those of a Murton/Hollandsworth platoon and balancing them out against the defensive advantage, if any, of having Burnitz remain in RF while Hairston mans CF versus having Burnitz move to CF with Lawton manning one of the corner spots and a Murton/Hollandsworth platoon at the other. I see Lawton playing right when Murton is in the line-up and manning LF when Hollandsworth is playing. Your thoughts?

Good find. Thanks, UK, I feel better about the trade. Okay, so over the course of his career, Lawton's 2nd half OBP is just 13 points lower (.376 to .363) and that is including two terrible 2nd halves he had in '02 and '03 when he got injured. So it appears that he likely does tail off a little bit, but he isn't as terrible of a 2nd half player as some posters were making him out to be.