CubsWin

Howry is the Cubs worst reliever?

I don't disagree with you about the kill me part, Novoa isn't great. But Wuertz did pitch yesterday and the Cubs are out of it. Why over use him?

Anyone know if Ryan Harvey was removed from the game as a result of his previous injury flaring up or a new injury due to being hit by a pitch?

That's been my take on things. His swing adjustment seems to be driving his current level of performance more than good luck or simply just a hot streak. Is he also getting lucky with more than the usual amounts of balls in play dropping for hits? Yes. But also, no one believes that he is likely to keep up the pace he has been at in August. But his BABIP wasn't that out of line in July, at least not for a guy making up for some bad luck earlier in the season. I think the statistical and anecdotal evidence clearly shows a high likelihood of Harvey having turned a pretty big corner with this swing adjustment. Does he have further to go? Of course. But luckily, he is still rather young. So far in August, he has struck out 17 times and walked 6 times with 1 HBP in 82 ABs. That's not great, but it is better than any other month this year. Now he just has to continue improving... Hell, at this rate I'd take 6 walks every 80 at bats. Especially if they can get him to play CF in the majors. How about 7 walks every 83 ABs? Harvey's OBP for August now stands at .387 with 7 walks against 17 strikeouts in 83 ABs. In 93 PAs, he has gotten on base 27 times via the hit, 7 times via the walk and twice by being hit by a pitch. His walk rate for the month is once every 13.3 plate appearances. According to MiLB.com's stats from August 1st through August 24th, Ryan is batting .329/.387/.506. From July 1st he is batting, .320/.361/.590 in 181 ABs (194 PAs). In 49 games since July 1st, he has scored 36 runs, hit 13 doubles and 12 HRs while driving in 39. Keep it up, Harv.

I think anytime a player is old for the league he is playing in, it will mean that we should take the numbers he produces there with a grain of salt. But a grain is a lot different than a whole shaker full. He still accomplished what he did at the A+ level and no one can take that away. A lot of what you are seeing in the drop off in production at AA thus far is due to a very slow start at West Tenn. Lately, he has been on fire. I don't think it would be fair to expect him to put up similar production in AA as he did in A+, but he should continue to offset his slow start the more he plays.

That's been my take on things. His swing adjustment seems to be driving his current level of performance more than good luck or simply just a hot streak. Is he also getting lucky with more than the usual amounts of balls in play dropping for hits? Yes. But also, no one believes that he is likely to keep up the pace he has been at in August. But his BABIP wasn't that out of line in July, at least not for a guy making up for some bad luck earlier in the season. I think the statistical and anecdotal evidence clearly shows a high likelihood of Harvey having turned a pretty big corner with this swing adjustment. Does he have further to go? Of course. But luckily, he is still rather young. So far in August, he has struck out 17 times and walked 6 times with 1 HBP in 82 ABs. That's not great, but it is better than any other month this year. Now he just has to continue improving...

Dusty's allergic to putting the best offensive team on the field. That or Barrett's just injured. Oops, sorry, I didn't see that that info had already been posted in this thread.

After being on the opposing team's scrap heap at the beginning of the season, there's only upside in this match-up: This is why I'm excited about today's game. The Cardinals losing to the guy they let go this spring because they deemed he wasn't going to be ready to pitch in the majors this season. Come on, Juan, make 'em pay. Here's hoping that someone posted that quote from Duncan on the Cubs clubhouse bulletin board.

Dusty's allergic to putting the best offensive team on the field. That or Barrett's just injured.

I just saw this and raced here to post it, but you beat me. Yay, Eric! Yay, Beer! Welcome to the PCL, son!

Average BABIP tends to be between .280-.310. There's room for fudging with those numbers and nothing is set in stone...but anything noticeably beyond those numbers is typically considered unsustainable. At the major league level, yes. Does anyone have any stats for league average BABIP at lower levels? Is it any different?

No, it won't. Home runs are not balls in play; they are not counted in BABIP. The only way you can really try to justify that statement is by saying that fly balls that would have been outs have been leaving the park, reducing the number of outs on balls in play and increasing his BABIP artificially--and that's quite a stretch. More consistent power does offset a low natural BABIP a lot, though. If he can hit a higher number of balls out of play, he won't need to sustain a high BABIP to be productive so much. Wow, I had no idea that a HR isn't considered in play. Thanks for the heads up. I guess it does impact it slightly by reducing the number of potential fly ball outs, but, you're right, it wouldn't do so in any dramatic fashion. I'll change my previous post to reflect this correction. Regardless, the consistent rise in Harvey's BABIP can't be due solely to luck when it is so closely linked with the change in his swing. He won't maintain what he is doing this month BABIP-wise, but June and July aren't that out of whack.

Thanks for all the updates, CR! The 19-year-old Ceda is looking pretty darn good in the early going for the Cubs. In 12 IP, he has allowed 5 hits, struck out 21 and walked 7. He has a 0.75 ERA and a WHIP of 1.00. Definitely worth dumping for two months of Walker. With the 17-year-old Robert Hernandez going 5-1, 2.18, the 18-year-old Chris Huseby striking out 9 while walking only 1 in 8+ innings of work and the 19-year-old Marco Carillo going 2-0, 2.11 with 25 Ks against 7 BBs and a WHIP of 1.01 in 32.2 IP, the Cubs have a group of under 20 arms worth watching in Arizona.

From July 1st through August 18th: .344/.370/.637/1.007 with 7 BBs/41 Ks in 157 ABs (165 PAs) From August 1st through August 18th: .403/.441/.629/1.070 with 5 BBs/12 Ks in 62 ABs (68 PAs) On the year, Harvey is hitting .259 with an absolutely horrible OBP. He is tied for 1st in HRs and is 2nd in RBI in the FSL. However, with a minimum of 2.7 PAs per team game required, Ryan ranks 10th worst in OBP, meaning only 9 guys have worse OBPs than him. But again, its been a different story lately. Here's hoping he can write the next chapter...

He certainly hasn't lived up to his billing as the 6th overall pick, thats for sure. But at the rate things are going, they are changing. I can understand how variations of 40 or 50 points in BABIP each month can be chalked up to luck. But Harvey's BABIP numbers have jumped so much that to say that he was merely unlucky in the beginning of the season and is simply getting lucky now is a little hard to support logically. It is far more logical to conclude that he also was hitting the ball weakly in April and May and is now making much better and stronger contact. Even if he hadn't shortened his swing, we would have to assume that he is, for some reason, hitting the ball better. But when you factor in the news of his swing adjustment and then the fact that he gets hot right after making the adjustment it becomes increasingly hard to believe that a 150-200+ point jump in BABIP is due solely to how the ball is bouncing that month. His increase in BABIP is certainly unsustainable at its current level, but it is too big of a jump, too consistent and too well-timed with his swing adjustment to not be in part a result of an improved approach at the plate. A shorter swing likely leads to less head movement and better balance. Each of those can result in better pitch recognition during the swing and thus crisper contact. Crisper contact means a harder hit ball. Whether it is hit on the ground, on a line or in the air, a harder hit ball gets through holes faster, finds the gap easier and travels furthur through the air. His swing adjustment has resulted in an increase in power as well. Is it just due to luck that 12 of Ryan Harvey's flyballs have gone over the fence since July 1st? Your argument seems to be saying that Harvey's improved numbers were a mirage due to his increased BABIP and that luck is the only factor that affects that statistic. I agree to an extent, but a consistent improvement in BABIP immediately following a swing adjustment can't only be happenstance. Harvey is doing something to cause his BABIP numbers to jump and stay up as they have. He can't sustain what has been happening thus far in August, but June and July aren't too far out of the realm of possibility, certainly for a hot streak.

He needs to be more patient. He can't hit his way on base. Wait a second, which one is it? He can't walk his way on base and he can't hit his way on base? Neither have been true in the month of August so far, and he has been able to hit his way on base pretty darn effectively over his last 200 ABs. He is far from out of the woods, and he needs to keep improving his ability to not swing at bad pitches. Doing so for only half a month isn't nearly good enough. But if it is true that the adjustment he made with his swing, back in June I believe, is resulting in an improved ability to make more solid contact then he is a more dangerous hitter. This can only lead to good things. Pitchers giving him less to hit may continue to result in more walks. When pitchers do challenge him or make a mistake, Harvey seems to be consistently getting on base via the hit due to the shortened swing. So, over his last 200 ABs, he is definitely hitting his way on base and that might be resulting in him walking more often, too.

And now there is anecdotal evidence as well. :lol: Certainly good to hear, but I'll wait to see how long he can keep this up. At least, the rather ridiculous talk of turning him into a pitcher can cease for a while. I agree he was bad, really bad at that time, but at his age and with his athletic ability, it was simply too early to give up on him like that.

In July, yes, it was absolutley horrid. But not so in August. Its probably just happenstance due to the small sample size (64 PAs), but through August 17th, Harvey's walked 5 times and struckout 12 times. That's a walk every 13 PAs. Still not that great, but it is a definite improvement over any other month this season and last. It is too early to say with any certainty, but the possibility remains that the shorter swing and improved ability to make solid contact on a consistent basis is not only leading to a momentarily higher BABIP, but also greater confidence at the plate and thus less anxiety to succeed. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that if you are less anxious to get a hit, you will be more selective at the plate. But the question remains, how long can he maintain his new found confidence and possible selectivity. If his history has anything to say about it, not very long. Again, the sample size is still too small to draw any conclusions, but it certainly is worth tracking. For the record, Since July 1st, Harvey is batting .339/.366/.641/1.007 with 7 BBs and 41 Ks in 153 ABs. Since August 1st, he is batting .397/.438/.638/1.076 with 5 BBs and 12 Ks in 58 ABs.

:lol: :lol: :lol:

I found this exceedingly well thought out and well written. It makes a lot of sense. Thank you. Given this outlook and emphasis on walk rate, how does Scott Moore project?

A very good point, one I was aware of and agree with, but isn't there more to being a successful hitter than a player's K/BB ratio or walk rate in his late teens/early twenties? Is a steadily improving BABIP only due to luck or can it also be a sign that the player is making better contact consistently? Can't a player improve his approach, say better balance, quieter upper body at a given point in time and have that enable him to make better contact and then gradually learn better selectivity of which pitches to swing at as he goes? What is it about a young player's past that so concretely determines what he will be capable of in the future? I completely agree that Harvey's walk rate is his main problem and not his strikeouts. And I also agree that it isn't the norm for guys without good walk rates to get them over time. But he is still just 21. Even though Cubs instructors in the past haven't proven to be great teachers of this discipline, isn't there evidence of that philosophy changing with Tim Wilken coming in? Look at the walk rates of this year's draftees. Clevenger, Lansford, Malone, Rundle and Andersen are all pretty darn good, aren't they? I guess what I'm really asking of those that know more about this than I do is: Is a 21-year-old talented athlete at High-A doomed to fail because of how many walks he is able to get this year and the year before that? He will probably wind up with about the same amount of walks this year that he had last season, 24. Chase Utley walked 37 times in a similar number of ABs when he was 22 in High-A. The following year he walked 46 times and the year after that 41 times all with about 450 ABs. Is it truly that impossible or unlikely for Ryan Harvey to learn to draw a walk 20 more times a year over the next couple of seasons? Maybe it is. I'm just asking.

Harvey with another multi-hit game tonight. And so far no Ks. For those that think he is just terrible and simply sucks, they should ask themselves this question. Harvey started out the year terribly and over his last 100 ABs he is hitting near .400 and has raised his average on the year to around .250. Had he started hitting just below .400 for the first month and a half and then slumped to where he was now around .250, would we perceive him any differently? Clearly, anyone who is intellectually honest will answer yes. Anyone who watches a player's batting average hold in the high .300s for a long time (and OPS sit over 1.000) and then drop into a very mediocre range will perceive his ability/worth differently than if they see his average hang around the Mendoza line for a long time and then later climb to around .250. The perception is vastly different, but the reality isn't. Its simply a matter of timing. Though the fan will likely perceive the player who starts out hot and then slumps as better than the one who starts out cold. I would much rather have the latter, especially if the player is a young minor leaguer. Neither result is that good, either way he is a .250 hitter on the year at the moment, but the latter at least gives us reason to believe that something has clicked for Ryan Harvey. Too many fans look at a player's stats and think that it sums up who he is. Stats are simply a measure of where the player has been, and especially in the case of young, highly talented athletes like Harvey, stats are not a measure of where he is destined to go. An indicator? Sure. His destiny? Hardly. We'll just have to wait and see. Unless, of course, you're convinced that there is no possibility of seeing him do anything other than suck for the rest of his career. I guess those of you have only to hope that the Cubs try him as a pitcher.

Yeah, that's how I feel too. I just hope that he will be mentally strong enough to rebound from them quickly.

I agree, well said.

don't pull anything patting yourself on the back, dusty. :pukel: It scares me he's so quick to praise pagan and put down Murton. When Pagan does well, its obvious and expected...however Murton is only doing well because where "we put him", like Murton has nothing to do with it. What's Baker's problem with Murton? He's white? I appreciate the question mark. But so is Barrett and a lot of other players that Baker plays with regularity.