CubsWin

Thanks, CR, for all the updates. I know that the guys who are chosen to go the AFL are generally guys who are being considered for 40-man roster spots. But do they need to pull the trigger on EPatt. He's still got some time yet, right?

The more I think about it, and with the news of an increase in spending this season, the more sense it makes for the Cubs to be the high bidder for the bargaining rights to Matsuzaka. Come on, get this guy.

I don't see how having Piniella as manager would increase the Cubs chances of acquiring A-Rod. He's not a FA. Hendry would still have to deal with Cashman and Cashman wasn't mentored by Piniella.

No. Good answer.

1908 or anyone, What do you think it will take to be the high bidder? If you ask me, the Cubs need to be the high bidder. I think this is priority number 1 this off season.

The middle ground would be about 4.20. Which is above league average. And I do agree that he's not worth seeking out in a trade and Padilla is very likely to put up similar numbers. But the scenario here involves taking Hudson to facilitate getting Andruw Jones. And if the Braves eat some of Hudson's deal, Padilla won't be much cheaper. Hudson only makes 6M next year, Padilla will likely make more in 2007. FWIW, that 4.20 ERA would likely be about a 108 ERA+ next year. Padilla's career ERA+ is 106, and he hasn't been that high in 3 years. kc, So knowing that the trade isn't for Hudson, but is for Andruw Jones, and knowing the Cubs desperate need to add a power bat to their line-up and CF is one of the openings the Cubs need to fill, would you refuse to take on Hudson and his contract if it meant being able to add Jones?

Well, he certainly had an off year this season. But he isn't too far removed from success, so there is a chance that he can return to his previous performance level. However, I'm not in favor of acquiring Hudson as the #2 behind Zambrano. If taking on Hudson's contract does indeed make it easier to acquire Andruw Jones, that might be reason enough to take him. IMO, the Cubs need to sign a top of the line starter. My choice would Matsuzaka. If the Cubs fail to acquire the right to bargain with him, then I would go after Schmidt. If they can get one of those two pitchers, then Hudson would be filling the 4th or 5th spot in the rotation depending on how Prior does next spring. Hudson in that spot is fine. Expensive, but fine. If the payroll is going up, and if he brings with him Andruw Jones, and if the other options are Soriano or Dunn, I say bring on Hudson and his contract.

As with both the Ramirez and Lee trades, taking advantage of when other teams are seeking salary relief is a great way to improve your team's talent. Thus, I like the idea of going after Andruw Jones and Tim Hudson so long as the Braves are truly anxious to get rid of Hudson and the taking on of his salary will lower the asking price for Jones. I don't think acquiring A-Rod is realistic this off-season and certainly not for any price the Cubs should be willing to pay. Daisuke Matzusaka is the FA pitcher to target given the relative ease in obtaining exclusive bargaining rights. His yearly cost should be lower than either Zito or Schmidt due to their ability to play the open market. He is also 26 and had success in the WBC this past spring. If the Cubs can trade for Andruw Jones, which I think is a bit of a longshot, then I would like them to get Julio Lugo to play SS and start Theriot at 2B. If they can't land Jones, then Soriano seems like a must. I'm leery of him simply because he is unlikely to be worth what he'll be paid, but now is the time to overpay. I like resigning Wood to an incentive-heavy contract to be a reliever with the likelihood of trading Dempster when Wood shows he is ready and able. For the bench, I think Soto can do the job, but if Blanco is willing, I'd happily bring him back at 1.5 million. I'd like Moore to be in AAA next season, though he looks close to being ready. I know he is never going to leave St. Louis, but I would really like Scott Spiezio on the Cubs bench. So if Jones can be aquired... SS Lugo LF Murton 1B Lee 3B Ramirez CF Jones RF Jones C Barrett 2B Theriot Zambrano Hudson Matzusaka Hill Prior Dempster/Wood Howry Eyre Wuertz Ohman Aardsma I'll fill out the bench later...

The A-Rod one is. No way the Yank-mes do that. On the Cubs side, I wouldn't trade Pie for Vernon Wells, at least not right now. Also including arguably the Cubs hottest pitching prospect, Donnie Veal, in a deal to land the injury-prone J.D. Drew when you are already giving up Jones and Dempster is too much, IMO.

As I suspected all along. Cashman, nor many other GMs with large enough payrolls, just aren't stupid enough to trade away a guy who is consistently that productive. There is still a small chance that he could be traded, but it will have to be a heck of a package of talent to get him. There won't be any discount simply because the Yankee fans got on him this year.

What are we waiting for?! I think we're waiting on Bochy. My guess is that Bochy is Hendry's primary target and Girardi is the fallback option. I think he's waiting on the Yankees/Piniella situation as well as Bochy. Well, the Yankees situation is resolved. Torre is staying. So now about the only guy Hendry could be waiting on is Bochy.

What are we waiting for?! I think we're waiting on Bochy. My guess is that Bochy is Hendry's primary target and Girardi is the fallback option. I think he's waiting on the Yankees/Piniella situation as well as Bochy. Just like everything else, Hendry is reactive to every other team's moves. He never goes out and gets people, he waits for them to come to him. That's simply inaccurate. He certainly missed on Furcal and Beltran. But there are two players I can think of off the top of my head that he went out and got and they performed very well for the Cubs.

No it doesn't. A short series doesn't mean anything. Before the Yankees series that great staff were routed by the Royals in three games. You're missing the point. The Yank-mes line-up was supposed to be this huge, unstoppable force, well, how'd that go for them? What stopped this unstoppable force? Great pitching. The Tigers had it, the Yanks, didn't. Simple. Did you know that Babe Ruth made outs in over half the times he went to the plate? Yes, and...

The Yankees should be keeping ARod and looking to get rid of Randy Johnson, Carl Pavano, Jared Wright and rest of the overpaid, underacheiving starting pitchers that really have cost them over the past couple years. This is an illogical scapegoat situation fueled by the morons at ESPN and Cashman should be too smart to get caught up in it. I can't imagine Cashman trading away A-Rod for less than he otherwise would just because the fans are angry at him. If he goes, the Yankees will get a bundle in return. I totally agree that what they need to do, is sign some free agent starters, but, shhhh, let's keep that on the down low.

When listening to The Score one shouldn't expect facts to be accurate. :wink:

No it doesn't. A short series doesn't mean anything. Before the Yankees series that great staff were routed by the Royals in three games. You're missing the point. The Yank-mes line-up was supposed to be this huge, unstoppable force, well, how'd that go for them? What stopped this unstoppable force? Great pitching. The Tigers had it, the Yanks, didn't. Simple.

The way the Yank-mes "best MLB line-up ever" got shut down by the Tigers pitching, has to put a big 'ol tick mark in the pitching column in this debate. Great pitching still beats great hitting more often than not. I certainly agree that the Cubs don't get close to being dominant if one is good while the other suffers or if both are mediocre. But I think the circumstances show us that the Cubs should first move to improve their pitching via free agency. Here's why: The Cubs offense suffered badly this season. But some of that was because of the injury to Derrek Lee. Well, he will be back next season, so that is a big piece right there. Resigning Aramis will be huge. But more must be done. Pie ideally could use at least another half season in AAA, but there is a good chance that he would provide a higher OPS than Pierre did last season right now. So even without acquiring a power-hitting CFer, there will likely be improvement there as well. Murton had a strong 2nd half, which at 24, gives us reason to believe he will improve his overall numbers next year. Jones will likely regress, but he is quite capable of an .800 OPS again. That leaves the weak hitting middle infielders as a concern. Theriot will certainly not maintain his production from this season, but he can likely be an improvement over Cedeno as should Izturis. Would I like to see better players brought in? Yes. If they don't, is this offense likely to be just mediocre? I think so. But, as it stands now, assuming Ramirez resigns, the Cubs offense will be better next season than it was this season without an major acquisitions assuming no more catastrophic injuries occur. But there is no guarantee that Prior will return to form like Lee should. So free agent wise, the Cubs definitely should look to focus on signing high quality starting pitchers. Besides Z, only Rich Hill can be somewhat counted on to perform at a high level. That is 3 major holes in a 5-man rotation right there. With the depth of young arms in the system, one of those holes can be filled from within the system. But if we assume, and I think we must, that Prior will not return to form, that still leaves 2 holes that need to be filled by FAs. It will be a lot easier to convince Andruw Jones to accept a trade to the Cubs if there pitching staff looks dominant. And, as the Tigers have reminded us, great pitching usually beats great hitting.

He supposedly will be available this offseason. CR, or anyone, what is the reasoning behind Drew being available? Does Colletti think he is too expensive to keep? If so, I'd swap Jones for Drew in a heartbeat though I don't know if Colletti would. That move would require the Cubs to acquire a really good 4th OFer for when Drew goes on the DL, but for the 400-500 ABs the Cubs will likely get out of him, it would be worth it. Dellucci is a FA and would make an excellent 4th OFer. Aubrey Huff, Luis Gonzalez, Gary Matthews Jr., Trot Nixon, Craig Wilson among others are also possibilities, so if Dellucci doesn't want to come to Chicago, the Cubs would have plenty of other candidates from which to choose. Drew would be an upgrade in OBP most certainly, but possibly not much of an upgrade in SLG which is why I think the main move the Cubs must make is acquiring Andruw Jones. The thing that is nice about Drew is that he is left-handed. And with Lee, Barrett, Ramirez (hopefully) and Murton the likely mainstays of the Cubs offense all being right-handed, any and all good left-handed bats would be welcome. The left-handed Felix Pie will help, but he really would benefit from another half season, at least, in AAA. And I would much rather have a lopsided line-up that can produce runs than a balanced one that can't.

Well, unless Andruw Jones is not very bright, he should be able to recognize the difference having Derrek Lee in the line-up would make. He can also understand how well Rich Hill performed in August and September. He likely won't be traded until later in the off season, so he would know if the Cubs resigned Ramirez and signed a good starting pitcher. If they have, the addition of himself would make the Cubs legitimate contenders. I think he has the ability to see that. Theriot/FA 2B Murton Lee A. Jones Ramirez J. Jones Barrett Izturis/Cedeno Zambrano FA starter Hill Prior Miller (if resigned)/Mateo/Marshall/Guzman/Marmol It's a very right-handed line-up, but its a far superior one to any the Cubs have had in the last 20+ years. If Prior returns to form, the division would almost be a forgone conclusion.

wow.... :roll: I agree. Great Post by JeffH. No, it wasn't, and neither was yours. There's absolutely no reason to be immature and use demeaning names after he has resigned. Be happy that he's gone and leave it at that. If you want to have those thought in your mind, that's fine, but it's out of line to post them here. You got what you (and many others, including myself) wanted; just be glad about that.Is there reason enough to use them before someone has resigned? Why hasn't this same standard been applied to Baker and Hendry? Because they are still with the team? Don't get me wrong. I agree 100% with what you wrote, NCCF. I am a big fan of decorum. I'm just wondering where this tough talk has been. I like it. Keep it coming.

I don't think anyone is saying that Theriot is going to be able to do next year over a full season what he has done so far this season, which is hit .336/.415/.536 in 125 ABs. So this argument against Theriot starting at 2B next season doesn't hold water. Let's look at Theriot's minor league numbers... OBP- 2004: .367, 2005: .365, 2006: .367 AVG- 2004: .273, 2005: .304, 2006: .304 SB/CS- 2002: 32/8 in 489 ABs, 2003: 30/13 in 398 ABs, 13/11 in 330 ABs, 2005: 24/10 in 448 ABs, 2006: 14/3 in 280 ABs (25/5 in 405 ABs including the majors) What dkwg did say, is that everything we have seen thus far from Theriot shows us that he is ready to play in the bigs and succeed. I don't think he is in the class of players that can be "penciled in". I reserve that for guys like Lee, Barrett, Ramirez (if he stays) and Murton (if he isn't traded away). But I do think that Theriot's minor league numbers plus the 125 ABs in the bigs this year show us a batter who can be counted on to get on base about 35-37% of the time while hitting around .300, stealing 30-40 bases and playing a good defensive 2B. By that description, he is currently the best 2B on the team and better than a lot of starting 2B out there. I have no quarrel with the idea of aquiring a better 2B than Theriot, but the evidence supports that Ryan Theriot is ready to be a solid lead-off hitter/secondbaseman in the major leagues. CW, if you expect a 1:1 minor league to major league translation, then can I expect you to fully endorse Michael Restovich to start in RF in 2007? Its not 1:1. I'm accounting for a 15-20 point drop in both his AVG and OBP. The reason why it isn't more than that is because of his walk rate and his contact rate and how consistent they have been over the last three seasons. I haven't seen Restovich's numbers from '05 and '04. If someone can provide them for me or tell me where I can find them, I'll be happy to speak to that. I doubt he has the same level of consistency over the past three seasons. I also doubt he has the same contact rate. So Restovich is likely a pretty poor choice for comparison. Though I presume you were just being sarcastic. I'm not saying that Theriot should be counted on to be the starting 2B/SS. I'm saying I think he is capable of it and is a pretty safe bet to provide a better than Pierre (.330) OBP with a average close to .300 and 30-40 SB given 600 ABs. I also only think that he should be a starter if certain positions around him are improved offensively. If, god forbid, Pierre is resigned, and they don't get a power hitting corner OFer, then I would hope that they would sign someone better than Theriot to man 2B next season.

How so? If you actually take the time to compare Hart's numbers to Theriot's they aren't very similar at all. How do you get from stats that aren't similar to a "very, very apt" comparison? Guys who were two years old for their league that came up and hit out of their minds in their initial Major League time. Hart's minor league numbers were even worse than Theriot's, so when he regressed he couldn't make a Major League roster. Similarly, when Theriot regresses he in all likelihood will find himself in a bench role. I'm not saying it doesn't, I'm actually asking, but how does being a year or two old for your league mean that you are going to regress? I can understand how if you are old for your league it means that you aren't likely to get demonstrably better than your current level of production because you have potentially maxed yourself out, but how does it mean that you are doomed to regress? I think he means regressing from the 336/416/534 line that he has right now. No, he doesn't. He doesn't think that Theriot is a safe bet to hit around .300 or have an OBP of .350. He might be right. Then again, hitting in the .280s or higher and getting on base 35% of the time for a guy who has consistently done .304/.366 in AA and AAA the last two seasons doesn't seem like a big stretch to me. With his walk rate and contact rate, he seems a lot more like David Eckstein to me than Bo Hart.

I'm okay on trading him. He is far from untouchable in my book. But the right pieces have to be coming in before he can be considered expendable.

How so? If you actually take the time to compare Hart's numbers to Theriot's they aren't very similar at all. How do you get from stats that aren't similar to a "very, very apt" comparison? Guys who were two years old for their league that came up and hit out of their minds in their initial Major League time. Hart's minor league numbers were even worse than Theriot's, so when he regressed he couldn't make a Major League roster. Similarly, when Theriot regresses he in all likelihood will find himself in a bench role. I'm not saying it doesn't, I'm actually asking, but how does being a year or two old for your league mean that you are going to regress? I can understand how if you are old for your league it means that you aren't likely to get demonstrably better than your current level of production because you have potentially maxed yourself out, but how does it mean that you are doomed to regress? You have either figured out AA pitching or you haven't. You have either figured AAA pitching out or you haven't. And he has done so with great consistency over the last couple of seasons. Will Theriot have some adjustments to make next season? Very likely. But I have built in some regression into my prediction. The last two seasons he has hit .304 in the minors. So my prediction is that he can hit around .300, meaning that he can regress as low as the .280s. The last three seasons, he has produced an OBP in the mid-.360s, so I regressed him to .350 with the possibility of maintaining what he did at the lower levels. He draws a walk well. He hits for contact well. Do you lose those abilities entirely when you reach the majors? I could be dead wrong. I'm no expert in projecting major league stats based off of minor league numbers. But he's been getting the job done fairly consistently for three years running now. That's quite different than what Bo Hart did leading up to his time in the show.

How so? If you actually take the time to compare Hart's numbers to Theriot's they aren't very similar at all. How do you get from stats that aren't similar to a "very, very apt" comparison?