CubsWin

How so? Cause now the Cubs might consider Theriot as the starting 2B. That's risky, since Theriot doesn't even have one major league season under his belt and he's putting up numbers in the majors that he's never put up int he minors. But if Theriot sucked, the Cubs might go out and spend for a major FA like Soriano. There are no question marks with Soriano. I'm not saying that Theriot won't be a good 2B next season, I'm just saying it's risky. In an extreme hitters park in 2004 2005 soriano hit: 2004 Tex 145 608 77 170 32 4 28 91 33 121 18 5 .280 .324 .484 .808 2005 Tex 156 637 102 171 43 2 36 104 33 125 30 2 .268 .309 .512 .821 that's one hell of a risk for what he'll probably be making next season I agree. The career year factor with Soriano, doubled with his inability to play effective defense at 2B, make me nervous about playing him there. Even if he returns to his career norms, he would be an offensive upgrade at the 2B position which this team sorely needs, but will it be worth it at the cost? Could the Cubs do better by acquiring some other expensive bat? I think so.

I don't know how likely it is that Matthews Jr. will consistently get on base at a higher rate than Pierre. Career numbers suggest otherwise. Sarge lite is coming off of a big time career year. He may never come close to those numbers again. That said, if he can be had rather cheaply, which I doubt he can, I like him as a platoon player with Jones and a 4th outfielder. He could also keep CF warm until Pie is ready, but I think there are many better and safer options to be explored first.

You are forgiven. The Cubs record leaves a lot to be desired in that department. But it is important not to collapse past failures with current successes. The past is still and always will be the past. Here is a little more past for you, though it is of the most recent variety. Pie's numbers after the All-Star break in AAA this season are .323/.373/.538 with 10 SB and only 2 CS in 223 ABs. The league finally decided to stop throwing Pie fastballs and he struggled with the breaking stuff for much of the first half of the season, but if those numbers are any indication, he made some pretty good adjustments in the 2nd half. Is he a sure thing? No. I don't know if such a thing exists. But when you factor in that he put up those numbers as a 21-year-old in AAA and that 223 ABs is a decent sample size, Pie looks like a pretty safe bet to have success at the major league level. I don't think he is ready yet, but sometime next season isn't out of the realm of possibility.

Theriot mostly played SS this season at Iowa. About 25% of the time he played 2B, while also playing a little LF. I guess including SS as a possible position for him would be wise.

I agree with the first line. One year deal only. Around the same amount of money he made this season. But the second line, who cares how he gets on base really. A .336 OBP isn't great, but it is far from terrible and about what he usually puts up.

In a vacuum, Pierre is a fine member of a baseball team. He is rather consistent year to year. He isn't spectacular at anything. A guy with his speed should ideally be a little better at getting on base, but he is what he is and under different circumstances, I would want him back, but... 1. He is likely going to want to sign a multi-year deal and the Cubs are really needing a one-year stop gap to get to Pie. 2. The Cubs already have a lead-off hitter who is as good if not better at getting on base on the roster at the league minimum salary in Ryan Theriot. 3. The Cubs really need SLG% and CF is one of the few positions in which it is available. 4. Players like Andruw Jones, Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter, Mike Cameron and others maybe be available via trade or free agency. Now if the Cubs sign Soriano and want him to play 2B, and Pierre is willing to sign a 1-year deal for an amount that won't prohibit the Cubs from signing a couple good FA starters, then I'm okay with resigning Pierre. But that scenario, just doesn't seem very likely.

You might be right. All I hear about when it comes to Soriano is how terrible his defense at 2B was. His defense in LF this season was pretty good.

How so? Cause now the Cubs might consider Theriot as the starting 2B. That's risky, since Theriot doesn't even have one major league season under his belt and he's putting up numbers in the majors that he's never put up int he minors. But if Theriot sucked, the Cubs might go out and spend for a major FA like Soriano. There are no question marks with Soriano. I'm not saying that Theriot won't be a good 2B next season, I'm just saying it's risky. Actually its not as risky as you might think. For three years running, Theriot has put up an OBP in the mid-.360s in the minors. He hit .273 in '04, and .304 in each of the last two seasons. No one here or in the Cubs front office is expecting him to reproduce his numbers since joining the Cubs. You don't have to worry about that. But expecting him to have an OBP above .350, to hit around .300 and to steal about 40 bases in a full season is a fairly safe bet, not a risky one. Sure, he could produce below those numbers next season. But he hasn't for several years now and he is in his prime. One thing that can be described as risky is Soriano's defense at the 2B position. I think most any team that signs him will want him to play in the OF.

It is that fact, that the Cubs need more than a CF, that has me conclude to let Pierre walk especially if his asking price is anywhere near the rumored 8 million. With a better lead-off hitter already on the roster at the league minimum, big time holes to fill in the rotation, and several other CF options out there, including one in-house (Felix Pie), the need to sign a CF to a long term contract is very, very low. I would love to see if the Cubs could trade for Carl Crawford.

How so?

We agree that he shouldn't be handed the starting 2B job next season, but its more than just a "good performance during garbage time" though. He is a fairly proven commodity. He is 26. Over the last three seasons in the minors he has had an OBP steady in the mid .360s. He hit .273 in '04, and .304 in '05 and '06. He historically will steal about 40 bases given 600 ABs. Yes, his performance since joining the Cubs can accurately be described as a hot streak, but it isn't completely out of character. He should be able to hit about .300 with an OBP of .360, steal some bases and play a good defensive 2B. So if he was the starter next season, I wouldn't be shocked. He appears to be rather reliable. And his performance in "garbage time" this season only adds to his history of reliability.

I really like Juan Pierre. He isn't the greatest lead-off hitter. But a team could do a lot worse, too. He needs to walk a lot more than he does to raise his OBP, but his floor is pretty high as floors go. He is a very safe bet to give you a .330 OBP with 50 SBs and a decent defensive CF. I like that. But I don't love it. Nor would I pay 8 million to retain it. I especially wouldn't pay 8 million to retain it knowing that I already have someone on my roster at the league minimum who can likely do better than Pierre at getting on base and steal 30-40 bases while playing above average defense at 2B. Ryan Theriot. Theriot's minor league numbers in OBP and AVG over the last three seasons are remarkably good and consistently so. He is on a hot streak right now, for sure, but he should be able to maintain an OBP somewhere between .350 and .370. That's good enough to lead-off for my team anyday especially at the league minimum salary. With Theriot in the fold, I would let Pierre go and replace him with a CFer that has a good SLG%. If they can trade for Andruw Jones without gutting the minors too much, of course, I'd do it. The Twins may be looking to move Torii Hunter. The Jays might trade Vernon Wells. Mike Cameron for a year until Pie is ready? There are a lot of other options for Hendry to consider. I hope he does.

I don't think anyone is saying that Theriot is going to be able to do next year over a full season what he has done so far this season, which is hit .336/.415/.536 in 125 ABs. So this argument against Theriot starting at 2B next season doesn't hold water. Let's look at Theriot's minor league numbers... OBP- 2004: .367, 2005: .365, 2006: .367 AVG- 2004: .273, 2005: .304, 2006: .304 SB/CS- 2002: 32/8 in 489 ABs, 2003: 30/13 in 398 ABs, 13/11 in 330 ABs, 2005: 24/10 in 448 ABs, 2006: 14/3 in 280 ABs (25/5 in 405 ABs including the majors) What dkwg did say, is that everything we have seen thus far from Theriot shows us that he is ready to play in the bigs and succeed. I don't think he is in the class of players that can be "penciled in". I reserve that for guys like Lee, Barrett, Ramirez (if he stays) and Murton (if he isn't traded away). But I do think that Theriot's minor league numbers plus the 125 ABs in the bigs this year show us a batter who can be counted on to get on base about 35-37% of the time while hitting around .300, stealing 30-40 bases and playing a good defensive 2B. By that description, he is currently the best 2B on the team and better than a lot of starting 2B out there. I have no quarrel with the idea of aquiring a better 2B than Theriot, but the evidence supports that Ryan Theriot is ready to be a solid lead-off hitter/secondbaseman in the major leagues.

If you were running the DRays would you accept that deal? I sure as hell wouldn't. Then again, you don't get too many "Kazmir for V. Zambrano" type offers everyday. The Cubs screwed themselves, because if they were willing to give up three young, solid pitchers (nothing special, but solid arms) for Pierre, now imagine what the DRays could/should ask for, for the immensely more talented/better player in Carl Crawford. They should ask for both Gallagher and one of Pawelek/Veal/Hill/Marhsall. Every trade is different. A team's leverage/need to trade or acquire a certain type of player can change from moment to moment. For instance, lets say Delmon Young slips on a banana peel and breaks his leg. All of a sudden, its going to take a lot more to get Carl Crawford than the day before. So looking at what a team was willing to give up for Pierre and expecting the conditions to be exactly the same as they were then for this trade now doesn't really work. Yes, Crawford is good and young. So was Aramis Ramirez. He was acquired for next to nothing. Now the D-Rays GM Chuck LaMar has a much tougher trading reputation than does Pirates GM Dave Littlefield, but the fact remains that Crawford is about to get expensive (for the D-Rays that is) and there are several young, talented, league minimum OFers pushing him out of town.

The best that money can buy. Gotta love the Yank-mes...

That is true only if you are a stone cold, current production only, don't care how young for your league you are, can't project a player's future value worth a darn, kind of GM. I'm not saying that Gallagher alone should be able to get Crawford. But, given that Crawford is about to get expensive (in Devil Ray dollars that is) and the wealth of young talented OFers they've got pushing him, Tampa's leverage in this situation isn't the greatest. And it isn't much of a stretch to see that Gallagher has the ability to be a good starting pitcher for years to come.

I give you one guess. It's starts with a D and ends with a Y.

And in a meaningless game and 101 pitches already thrown, Hill is batting for himself.

Boy, thats horrible. I wonder what league average on that stat is.

#-o

Does anybody know what website does those major league equivalent stats for minor league numbers? Do you know if they do them for pitchers as well as hitters? Cause I'd be interested to see what Hill's projected major league equivalent stats would be on his season down in Iowa this year (7-1, 1.80 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 135 Ks, 21 BBs, 62 hits in 100 IP). Regardless of what they might be, if the website even does them for pitchers, he seems to be doing a mighty fine job of translating them himself.

Doesn't he also have A PERFECT GAME!!!

Its important to remember that those rumors about Hill being "untouchable" have been debunked a couple of times already. And I'm not certain that Veal is expected to perform at the big league level the way Hill has over the last two months. Not many pitchers can maintain an ERA under 3, including probably Hill. But right now, Hill is doing exactly that in the bigs while Veal has yet to pitch a game at the AA level. Veal is younger and can still solve his control problems. But I remember reading about Hill when he was in A ball that if he could solve his control problems, the sky was the limit for him. He was a high risk, high reward type prospect. And, at the moment at least, he appears to be paying off. Veal will likely pay off, too, down the road, but I disagree that he clearly has the higher ceiling. And he certainly has a lot further to go to prove himself at the big league level. Veal is a great prospect and I would prefer not to trade him either. I would try to deal Gallagher before Veal, but Crawford is a very good offensive player and the Cubs are going to have to give up someone good if they are to get him.

True, no one knows if Pie will make it or not. But given his age (21), his level (AAA) and his production .283/.341/.451 on the year, .323/.373/.538 post All-Star break, he is a pretty darn safe bet to come close to Crawford-type production in the bigs and certainly has the ability to surpass it. Who says you have to get rid of Pie to get Crawford though? Why couldn't you have both on the team? No one is saying that I know of. Certainly not me. I just laid out my argument for why having an OF of Murton, Pie and Crawford would be a good thing for years to come. All I'm saying is that I wouldn't trade Hill for Crawford because trading Hill would leave a gaping hole in a rotation that already has a lot of holes while not acquiring Crawford would be felt a lot less because, in Pie, the Cubs have someone a lot like him on the horizon. But I'm all for trading for Crawford. Just not giving up Hill to do it.

I agree. Bring him back with an incentive-laden deal if he'll take it. Frankly its a gamble going with one of Marshall, Guzman, Mateo or Marmol and its a gamble going with Miller. Who knows how they'll do? Miller is a different pitcher than he was three years ago and the statistical history on who he is now is very short. Just as short as the young arms listed. That's why, if he'll do it, its smart to bring him back with heavy incentives. The more chances you have at having a successful 5th starter, the better, I say.