??? 1) count the number of years with inflation and deflation and defend those being equally likely Then we're due for deflation. Regression to the mean. Unfortunately the mean is still infationary. I don't think Cameron has it right. Who cares what the stock market return is - that's not the either or situation here and the time value of money isn't based on stock market return. The discounts rates on the various payments need to be different - the Nats aren't sitting on $210 million today - some of that money isn't going to be earned by the Nats until 6 years from now. I guess it depends on the exact circumstance. I recall the deal that Luol Deng signed with the Bulls had a lot of deferred money, but it was specifically set up as a annuity so Reinsdorf was actually taking some of that present cash and making an investment in order to pay these future obligations- a net present table was actually very relevant as thats what the annuity was based on. If that Nats are actually setting money aside now, as well as at periodic times throughout the deal, they could in theory benefit from the investment of the deferred structure. At the very least you still benefit from inflation, but inflation doesn't quite keep up with the stock market, or probably even an annuity, which is going to be less than that 7% historical stock market return. So it would be a little disingenuous to use the 7% historical stock market return when a fixed payment structure is involved, because you're going to likely take a lower return to ensure fixed payouts can be made. Afterall, you have to be able to make payments in the lean years of the stock market and pulling out during a loss or having to borrow to cover would certainly effect that 7% figure. So all in all, while the dollar today vs dollar tomorrow is a universal truth, the fangraphs article may be a tad aggressive in its assumptions of return. The inflation rate the past 30 or so years and its projection is a much smaller, more stable figure than the 7% annualized stock market basis being used. But, my guess is that the rate of inflation of MLB contracts is higher than National Inflation and the ROI of MLB Franchises is closer to the 7%, maybe even higher than 7% with new TV Deals compared to a fix rate of return. Those two aspects make deferring a contract really attractive to a baseball franchise.