While I think you're mostly right the window is more like three years: last year/this year/next year. After year 4 for a young QB is generally when the honeymoon is over. If he's good that's when you have to start paying him, if he's not good that's when you can feel pretty confident he's not going to get any better. Plus on the defensive side, our team control on Jackson and Floyd runs through next year. his comment has to do with how long an elite defense can keep a team in contention I believe. that being said, I think 3 years is pretty appropriate