a 99 passer rating and nearly 4000 yards would likely be an extension. That's not Aaron Rodgers level, but its good and a deal that doesn't cripple the Bears financially wont stop them from also drafting another QB if they want. That's what I would hope they do. If the concern is that Pace will inflate his chest, yell "I told you so" and bump Mitch up to top 3 status for QB salary, no thanks. fwiw, If I thought Mitch was going to put up those numbers consistently, I'd sign him long term tomorrow. You can win with a QB playing at that level. But consistency would be the huge question mark. You'd have two total crap years and two nice years but not even top 10 type years. And coming off a season like that, if it's not a top 3 extension it would probably be at least top 5 with a significant guaranteed deal. If he didn't become consistent then, the those first few extension years become rough to build around. Luckily I think the hypothetical is very optimistic. More likely would be what happens if Mitch is the QB next year and settles into a high 80s low 90s type passer but you still haven't drafted his replacement. Is there a shorter term deal you can sign him to to bridge until you draft and develop a replacement? Or he's a low 80s type passer again and maybe the D will regress and you sneak tank for Lawrence. consistency is a question if nothing else changes, but, say the o-line goes through a positive makeover and his numbers bounce upwards, I think you can take the numbers as reliable. Right now, his regression is likely #1)him and/or #2) environmental issues. Outside of Mitch, the o-line looks like the typical suspect, dropped passes the second most likely suspect. Fix #2), and you probably get an accurate read on #1). If its a big increase in play, there you go. If its not, then he's horsefeathers. That's how I would approach this off season since you are stuck with Mitch next year anyway.