Yeah, they do have that terrible home loss, and played very few games away from home on the year (finished 5-8 overall including last night's game). They also finished 9-10 against the top 100. However, that road win at Syracuse is undoubtedly the best win of any of the teams in consideration, and considering how weak the bubble is I think they're safe. I initially had them a lot lower on my list, but there are a lot of BAD teams around the bubble right now, so they are the lesser of many evils. Yep, (in retrospect I had them too low) just wanted to preemptively argue against anyone seeing those wins over Cuse and putting them as a 5 seed or something. Not that I have a clue who deserves a 5 seed out of this lot. I had Louisville in the 10 seed area on my preliminary S-Curve (after last night), so I agree completely. For the sake of argument, here's what I think about the 20 teams on our bubble (As always, these aren't final and subject to change): Virginia Tech - Lots of solid wins (@GT, Wake, Clemson) and no terrible losses. They're easily off of my bubble. UNLV - Split with all the MWC contenders including NM on the road. Also beat L'ville. Being swept by Utah is bad, but they're still fine. Georgia Tech - VT with more losses and a bad road record, but a big win over Duke. UTEP - They really needed to beat a tourney lock at some point, but their dominance of CUSA is impressive enough to have them in for now. California - Beating Murray St., Washington, and ASU twice is solid. Losing to UCLA and Oregon St. not so much. Needs to avoid another bad loss (i.e. make the finals). Illinois - So many good wins and so many losses. This year's Arizona now that UConn is dead. Mississippi - No good conference wins, but they beat K-State and UTEP at neutral sites. With only one bad loss they're just in my field. UAB - They beat Butler. Really nothing other than that either good or bad. Washington - No road work and some suspect losses, but wins over Cal, ASU, and A&M are solid for a team in a mid-major conference. Seton Hall - My first team out. A few solid wins, but the best is Pitt at home. 12 losses is a lot to overcome. San Diego St. - Beat NM and UNLV and..? That's not enough to overcome losing to Pacific and Wyoming for me. Need another good win. South Florida - @G'town is a good win (and getting better), but there aren't enough wins and a few uninspiring losses pull them down. Arizona St. - Might have the least damaging losses in the Pac-10, but their best wins are over two bubble teams (Wash, SDSU) at home. Cincinnati - Poor man's Illinois. They need to win at least one more, probably more. Dayton - Xavier, Old Dominion, and GT are good wins, but some ugly losses are holding them down. Utah St. - I'm a lot lower on these guys than everyone else, but beating BYU doesn't make a resume, especially with 4 bad losses. Minnesota - Actually Minnesota is probably a better Illinois comparison. They also need to make the finals for a chance. Memphis - Why does everyone have them in? They swept UAB? They also lost to SMU and UMass. Rhode Island - Decent road work, but the only win over a tourney team is Ok St. Two bad losses at the end of the year did them in. Mississippi St. - Lost at Western Kentucky and at home Rider. Three wins over bubble teams and that's it. Edit: I agree with leaving Syracuse where they are for now.